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Total US Debt Now Officially Above The Ceiling
A quick look at today's just released total debt to the penny from the Treasury may crimp the artificial smile of even such die hard administration sycophants as Moodys. Why: because the total debt, as we predicted when we observed last week's 30 Year auction, is now at $14,305,336,580,992.11. This is a problem because as anyone who rails against the broken US fiscal apparatus should be able to tell you, the debt ceiling is $14.294 trillion. In other words we have now officially breached the debt ceiling by $11 billion. So why has the US not filed a notice of default yet? Because the actual debt that matters for legal purposes is the debt "subject to the limit", which is $52 billion less than the total debt primarily due to $10 billion held at the Federal Financing Bank, and $41 billion in unamortized discount: a number which fluctuates in time depending on how much over or under par bonds are issued, but which ultimately will be zero at maturity of all debt (haha). In other words, as of today, the US Treasury has dry powder for just another $41 billion in issuance, or just over your average 5 Year auction. This can be seen best on the following chart from the Treasury where the total debt line has just passed the limit.
So what does this mean for near term issuance? Also per the Treasury, there is a total of $55 billion in debt paydown in the next week primarily in bill redemptions, offset by $14 billion in issuance in the last week of April. The problem is that this week also happens to be a major tax refund week. We anticipate that tax refunds will likely total between $20 -25 billion net over tax revenues. Which means there will be a net cash need of about $75 billion. As we ended Thursday at about $30 billion, Friday's cash balance (released at 4pm by the FMS) could be very critical to determine if the Treasury will be forced to come up with some emergency form of 11th hour cash raise. It also means that the debt ceiling clock is ticking ever louder. The Treasury will have capacity for one more full weekly auction, to be completed in the first week of May, and then it is game over.
Update: cash as of Friday was $58 billion. With $55 billion in cash out this week and who knows how much of refund funding, it could get mightly close...
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Is silver going to go up or down when the limit is increased? I have some more FRNs I need to drop. What has it done historically?
Does it really matter what silver has done historically when reaching the debt ceiling AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
The current paradigm of USD FRN hegemony is at its last breath. Dump them all while you still can before the new control system is enacted.
Does this mean we can finally have a Mary Popping's style party on the ceiling?
only those of us of a certain age will get that reference!
but its supercalifragilisticexpialidocious! ;-)
With a spoon full of sugar?
A van full of candy helps the molestation go down. The molestation go down. A yard full of toys makes the molestation fun. The molestation fun.
Welp, I think it's now definitively proven that deficits don't matter. The sun is still shining, foodstamps can still be processed, and tomorrow will be a great day for everyone to BTFD.
Broke, I don't know about that, they sure had billions to hold Gold from braking 1500. The miserable rat bastards.
Don't worry about the illegitimi! $1500 will come and go quickly.
S&P just showed that even Ryan's ambitious, but slow, plan has no chance of happening. There are very few places to hide now.
The debt ceiling increase would lower the value of the dollar making precious metals more attractive to investors...
What a bunch of deadbeats the Congress is....oh wait, all those trillions being mailed in tonight should help get us through FY 2011...wait GE ect don't pay taxes...gulp!
This seems like a good place to insert a link from The Daily Bell, nearest and dearest to my heart after ZH. Been off the grid for a couple of days practicing survival arts and what a joy to boot up and find this gem:
http://thedailybell.com/2096/James-Jaeger-on-His-Documentary-and-Nelson-Hultbergs-New-Freedom-Oriented-Political-Party.html
More important than the interview is the link covering a Third Party prospect for our upcoming election - non other than Dr. Paul himself. This is one link you must pass on:
http://www.jaegerresearchinstitute.org/articles/modern.htm
If this link doesn't take you there it's in the interview section at DB
Nope, I don't own JPM, no dividend of any consequence. I do own HBC, which pays 4.5%.
But most of the stuff I have hardly has any volatility.
I'll be looking at buying some screamers tomorrow if we get a confirmation of a reversal day:
None of these really pay dividends, I'll just dryhump them for a quick trade:
How are my physical PMs doin Robo? What, no chart?
How's my German bailout of Greece doin? Just GROOVY man, GROOVY!
You remind me of April Wine, Canada's 4th best rock power trio of the 1970s.
You guys are too hard on Robo - sure he's made some wrong calls - but he post charts...and boobs.
+ $1495
RobotTrader is a TRADER. He does what traders do. Momentum is a very common tool that traders use.
I always look at what Robo posts, right or wrong.
Gold and silver are for the SAVERS among us, mostly with longer time frames.
A stock chart is a common stock price chart. Common stock is simply corporate worlds version of unsecured debt. Meaning they can be wiped out at any time. It's like a credit card with a debt limit based entirely on it's price. Charts are simply a print of a companys credit card debt limit statement.
the total debt... is now at $14,305,336,580,992.11
The debt ceiling is $14.294 Trillion
Jeez! Relax, Tyler.
You know how all the debt is stored on computers as bits and bytes, right? And a megabyte is actually 1,048,576 bytes, rather than 1,000,000 bytes? Well, a trillion is a million million, correct? So on a computer, a trillion must be 1,048,576 x 1,048,576, or 1,099,511,627,776. So $14.294 Trillion is actually $15,716,419,207,430.144.
There! We've still got $1,411,082,626,438.034 to spend!
That should be good for another week or two.
Except that dollars aren't bits.
Fail.
C#?!?
Like you know anything about computers.
(or parody, for that matter)
It's about time to break out yer gold plated 'GLD $1500' hats and your 'Katie bar the door' tee-shirts.
OCCIFER! OCCIFER! ARREST THOSE CRIMINALS!
Probably a stupid question but could the Treasury simply ignore the debt ceiling ? Would the AG really open a case against them ?
finally, an easy question even a Rainman can do it. Yes and No.
Good question...take it one more step: would demanders buy unlawfully issued debt? Inquiring minds want to know...
If you go through the ceiling and look up, what do you see? Blue skies?
Certainly not justice. in fact i don't even feel "truthiness." highly disappointing given the rhetoric.
www.bloomberg.com/.../u-s-is-bankrupt-and-we-don-t-even-know-commentary-by-laurence-kotlikoff.html
202 Trillion Dollars in the Red, Bitchez. Even if he's wrong by 50%, or 75% for that matter, it's all the same. Europe is just as broken, and Japan is well on its way. Say hello to the looming Chinese implosion, also. Bitchez.What's that, Jean-Claude?
04-18 15:56: ECB's Trichet says all major nations understand imbalances must be adjustedWhat's the difference between the debtor going bankrupt over $1 or $1 trillion, anyways?
Damn, interesting article ETF. Even though it's from August of last year. I musta missed it on one of my Bloomberg runs back then but glad to have caught it now.
Thanks.
Kotlikoff is also one of the economic minds behind the very common-sense FairTax proposal that would do away with the 16th amendment and the income tax and replace it with a consumption tax which would encourage savings, largely remove the ability of politicians to forward their agenda via the tax code, and incentivize the re-importation of capital and jobs from around the world.
Of course the pols will never go for it since it takes away one of their favorite voter-controlling, class-dividing, corruption-enhancing tools, the income tax.
Yeah. I took a look at his personal website and read a few synopsis of the books he's written. Seems like (from the cursory glance) a straight-shooter and somewhat level headed. I'll have to keep an eye out for his articles on Bloomberg and perhaps pick up one of his books for a weekend.
Thanks for the introduction.
Gullible is not in the dictionary.
Tri & RedPill:
Kotlikoff is the real deal in the sense he's about as agnostic and honest on the pure math, IMO, as anyone has ever been. David M. Walker has pegged debt at 56 trillion, but he didn't include all non-discretionary U.S. obligations carried forward based on actuarial tables.
"The nation's real tab, on the other hand, amounted to $53 trillion as of the end of the last fiscal year. That was the sum of our public debt; accrued civilian and military retirement benefits; unfunded, promised Social Security and Medicare benefits; and other financial obligations -- all according to the government's most recent financial statement of September 30, 2007."
-- http://articles.cnn.com/2008-10-06/politics/walker.bailout_1_credit-crun...
Interesting. I wonder what he is using as his 'most recent financial statement'; in addition I wonder how well his data corrilates to what some pundits (like ShadowStats) are forecasting.
"What's the difference between the debtor going bankrupt over $1 or $1 trillion, anyways?"
Bragging rights.
"What's the difference between the debtor going bankrupt over $1 or $1 trillion, anyways?"
The debtor that goes bankrupt over a dollar is called a loser, the debtor that goes bankrupt over a trillion dollars is called a savvy investor and gets his own TV show if he wants it.l
Not possible for something to be above the ceiling unless it`s another floor.
send the overlimit fees to the taxpayer too
lucy & ethyl go underground as detectives disguised as groucho and harpo, wondering what ricky and fred could be up to after overhearing "...debt ceiling..."
A cash driven market with worthless cash
PHYS just jumped 28 cents in the last 5 minutes of trading. Awesome...
As long as there are silicon memory chips, there is NO debt ceiling...
http://apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/2011/04/prelude.html
Prelude
My physical gold is doing great. But I don't really want any more of it. I learned my lesson by being over concentrated in one sector. I have plenty of gold and I have a few gold stocks in my IRA which are stuck in the mud, but I'll be looking at loading up on some tech stocks if we can get this tape turned around.
I did buy INTC last week, still eyeballing SCCO to grab it when it turns around. That thing pays over 6% dividend.
Might also look at RGLD, it pays a small divy, and it broke out to new highs.
But I will not be chasing LULU, it already ran away from me, and besides it is not in the S & P 500....
Your physical gold is not doing great. The fiat dollars it is priced in are doing badly.
speaking of South Africa, how much gold does a nation have to produce to justify its bankruptcy?
if you answer "more" or perhaps "more ore" or just plain "moooooorrrrre"--you get the "free mint" with your "free checking account."
speaking of this..."what do you get when you cross a German finance minister with an African constituency?" "Afarcide"--get it? sorry, it seemed funny at the time.
well done robo!
Ya.I hear intel sales will be so good. They'll finally be able to pay off the indian exchequer for the 2.5 billion in fake sales they ran through Esys.
If they IPO snatch some up. It's Madoff tested and mother approved.
Where's Lionel Richie when you need him?
I'm patiently waiting for the century USTbonds. I'll be needing some fire starter this next Winter.
You will need to pay Carbon tax if you burn. Check with your local office. Yeap, soon garage sales will be taxed.
LOLOL Jobe. Enjoy the humour here.
Now didn't everyone find breaching the debt ceiling liberating? I mean, Starbucks is still open, Ipad2 is still so much better than Ipad1, gas prices off the hook. Everything in the world is a-ok!
according to leo, we could straigten up this mess if they would only get a vat tax.......
leo who?
Someone please post Kenny G songs. I need a few bottles of Wild Turkey.
I am wondering if the Treasury gets to post their deposits before this big check bounces, or will the Fed process their overdraft first? Ya know you can't play the check float anymore.
"So why has the US not filed a notice of default yet?"
Because it it arbitrary.
It amazes me how a site like this, so bent on prividing the facts, fails to educate it's readers on the actual workings of the monetary system. We are no longer on the gold standard, but everyones thinking is still based on that.
Well I suggest everyone read
The latest US Comprehensive Annual Financial Report is http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/10frusg/10frusg.pdf
Here's is something interesting from 2009 . It gives you a clue of why unions are under attack.
"The Government’s net operating cost typically exceeds the deficit due largely to the
inclusion of cost accruals for benefits
earned by government employees that will be paid in the future.
Danger time for PMs and commods. Sorry.
boring. hows AAPL or whatever it is you do Johnny?
I hear they are going to cannabilize thier market share again to drop the cpi on account of a 8gigapixel camera instead of a crappy 4 gigapixel camera. Only the people who make an important component are currently being irradiated to death by the japanese shadow fucking government.
Friendly fire. Oops.
Really did all the people in China and India suddenly vanish from the earth?
Of course the debt ceiling must be raised while increasing revenue (taxes) from the public. The repubs and dems are rehearsing right now for their upcoming oscar award performance of another episode of "As the Country Crumbles".
still...that's better than "as the Chris Cringles" or "the John Dingells." Or the "Obama Hussein's Barak" or "Harry's Reid." Now..."George Bush" i tell you..."George...Bush."
Debt Sealing? ...or is it really Debt Ceiling? ...reminds me of the Angel in the Whirlwind speech and the ensuing inside job and the tornado.
http://www.newswithviews.com/Horn/thomas102.htm
http://chrismastrangelo.com/ISC2001_911.html#tornado
''Inside Job & The Tornado'', with special guest re-appearance by ''Angel City and The Whirlwind'', will be live on stage this September, on the 11th, 2011. Venue has yet to be announced but it looks like New York City or the National Mall in D.C. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8prsiCxj8Jo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvPhSUZgzxo&feature=related
Maybe what S&P's meant to say was "this downgrade brought to you by Chris Angel, "mind-freak.""
Blackberry Playbook is out tomorrow...who cares about the debt ceiling?
no slack. what happens to the politicians when someone has taken the can they were going to kick down the road? its almost midnight cinderella.
The white house and Congress succumbed to the scare monger bankers in 2008. Now Geitner is screaming that the sky is falling for the administration. Obviously, the white house is on board to up the debt limit. Congress needs to wake up and stand their ground this time. How does increasing the debt ceiling help us right this ship? It doesn't. And BTW, put war spending in the budget. Sorry Repubs, you gotta make sacrifices, too.
Somebody poseted this on ZH a while back, definitely worth watching.
YouTube - Walt Disney - Chicken Little - 1943
You could kind of say that Timmy is Chicken Little and the Fed is the Big Bad Wolf... kind of.
Big surprise ending for those who vaguely remember the original tale.
Don't worry, US will just raise it and then back it up with fresh Libyrian oil. It is only there to convince the populace lowered government services(college, healthcare, social security) through austerity.
US also have FASB (unaccountability office) to do something creative accounting like start taking military expenditure and all $250k/year California police pensions out of the budget calculations then use mark-to-fantasy model on expected Trillions of corporate tax revenue on Facebook.
"estimated revenues" bitchez
Well, for sure the economy's never going to recover if America's poor are getting degrees, healthcare, and retirement money.
Recent bit of ironic comedy: wildfires in Austin wiped out 11 houses today. The fire was started in a homeless camp when someone left his breakfast cookfire to go buy a sixpack.
It's so funny I'm crying.
We defaulted back in 2008 with the first bailouts.
So now its like monopoly when you are losing.
You take the deal you are given or you are out of the game.
shocking what "our reps" + the sheeple (yes they deserve part of they blame for not being truly informed enough to form their own opinions) have let happen.
Great Article goes great with the one i just read
http://theintelhub.com/2011/04/17/inside-the-numbers/
you fellas had a war for freedom . you need to finish the job.
you fellas had a war for freedom from taxes without representation. you need to finish the job. its important to all the world.
Personally I think Benjamin Franklin sold us out to the french bankers back in 1770 something.
What did we ever give the french in return for helping us win the war....?
Anyone... anyone....?.....I say we gave them a piece of the action.
One could argue that we have never been separated from the european banking system.
Think about how Societe Generale made out on the American dime during the bailouts.
No doubt they and many other European banks are "stakeholders" in the US financial system.
While they are over the limit can't they just quickly borrow 14.3 trillion and turn around and pay it tomorrow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gx7P3AxBZo
Comrades,
A great socialist army on parade: The DDR's NVA.
Those guys are ok but check this
YouTube - 1950s Italian Police Motorcycle Demo
I plan to BTFD with revolutionary enthusiasm, cousin.
In Soviet Russia, the money borrows you.
I have a question for anyone . . . back to TD's article the other night. . .if they are selling put options is that technically allowed under the legislation?
Login
Winning!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZS2GthG1hQ
Comrades,
Soviet power with a great heavy metal soundtrack.
Welcome to middle America. The IRS brings in 200 billion per month, the monthly minimum interest is 160 billion per month. Desperate, but not broke? Check, but not check mate? BillyBon7 can you create a game board for this?
Credit plays are fun until they are not. Jump you fucker, jump.
What could you manufacture from the resources around you? Does a sheep dog make/weave wool? What happens when the sheep drop from exhaustion before the wolf comes?
Chasing charts has become a Warner Bros. cartoon. Yacko(POTUS), Wacko(Fed Chair) AND Dot(Voters).
Bon Chance mes Ami!
The US is getting backed into a corner, what is the realistic end to this game?
Massive deficit + no Rule of Law + farcical financial "rules" + inherent corruption
+ Stoner Arms Dealers + China's military expansion
+ A whole lot of unexploded ordinance
=
well, who gets to rewrite the rules?
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-stoner-arms-dealers-20110316
"Rules" were never established. We've just been getting by with "agreements."
This may the end of that era.
Can anyone theorise on what happens to the US economy if the Fed stops buying US treasuries? Surely not enough bonds can be sold to cover the enormous deficit as China isn't buying and neither is Japan now. No way the Oil Producers and private investors will fund the 600-700 billion needed, or will they? And if no-ones buys bonds, and teh Fed doesn't print more, what happens then? Is that even a possibility?
Um...yields climb?
I'd say the PDs keep at it for a bit with some expectation that either the rest of the world implodes or the smart guys running the show come up with a plan.
Why not synthesize decent yields out of a combination of US treasuries and Greek (/Portugese/Italian/etc) junk with the unspoken promise that USD collapse hurts the Eurozone too?
I say it's about time our bankers got back to what they do best.
As these Keynesian Kooks take the country to 1984 with their continuos PROPAGANDA bullshit and counterfeiting... it's time to party like it's 1999!
Maybe someday these scumbags will all be throw in jail
As these Keynesian Kooks take the country to 1984 with their continuos PROPAGANDA bullshit and counterfeiting... it's time to party like it's 1999!
Maybe someday these scumbags will all be throw in jail or worse...
Public debt is around $14 trillion. Total debt is around $57 trillion:
http://grandfather-economic-report.com/debt-nat.htm