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Trade Against The 90% That Lose Money

Pivotfarm's picture




 

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this offers very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.

So what are the signals?

Strong Short 66% Retail Longs

Short 60% Retail Longs

Long 60% Retail Shorts

Strong Long 66% Retail Shorts

We are looking for 60%+ (Ideally for best opportunities 66%+) of retail traders to be trading either long or short a currency pair, we then look for opportunities to fade (trade against) this group. For example if 72.99% of traders are long the USD/CHF we look for opportunities to short that pair.

The pairs that we feel offer the highest opportunity for success are described in the Strong Short and Strong Long areas.

What’s New Today? Great GDP numbers have pushed GBPUSD into the Long zone, USDJPY has been moving higher since yday little has changed in the Retail positioning and the down trend still seems firmly in place.

 

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Wed, 10/27/2010 - 08:57 | 680170 shortus cynicus
shortus cynicus's picture

What is your data base? How do you know, how many retail peaople are long or schort ?

 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 18:21 | 681739 Pivotfarm
Pivotfarm's picture

We collect data from a collection of brokers and create an average.

We have found the tool to be very useful. The USDJPY for example has been in the strong short zone since June. 

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 08:52 | 680160 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

This is daft...

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 07:56 | 679990 margaris
margaris's picture

retail traders cant be wrong all the time....

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 18:20 | 681737 Pivotfarm
Pivotfarm's picture

if you're wrong 90% of the time you're going to be right 10% : )

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 06:09 | 679931 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

Sell the dollar?

Maybe not today, thanks.

Wed, 10/27/2010 - 04:12 | 679905 Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

Black box churnwankery.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!