This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Trade Against The 90% That Lose Money 13th Dec
Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this offers very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.
So what are the signals?
Strong Short 66% Retail Longs
Short 60% Retail Longs
Long 60% Retail Shorts
Strong Long 66% Retail Shorts
We are looking for 60%+ (Ideally for best opportunities 66%+) of retail traders to be trading either long or short a currency pair, we then look for opportunities to fade (trade against) this group. For example if 72.99% of traders are long the USD/CHF we look for opportunities to short that pair.
The pairs that we feel offer the highest opportunity for success are described in the Strong Short and Strong Long areas.
What’s New Today? No Major Shifts in Retail positioning from the last trading sessions
Provided by Pivotfarm - Click here to learn about Technical Confluence
»
- advertisements -
Oh... ok, that makes sense.
"There really is no need to pay $1700/month for a platform unless you're moving massive amounts of money in the markets." Seems to be the general consensus amongst retail investors.
Thanks again for sharing some of your strategies.
@ Orly
What do you use as a trading platform... if you don't mind me asking?
What are your thoughts on Bloomberg Pro for FX?
I use the MetaTrader 4/5 platform, which is by far the most common platform. It is convenient for me because I use trading algorithms (robots...) and most other platforms require you to write your own. I don't know such stuff.
My broker is IBFX and I am very pleased with them. Sorry, I know nothing about the Bloomberg platform.
:D
P.S. It looks like the EURUSD has pushed way out past the upper Bollinger Band on the H4 chart. It looks like some pull-back is in order because the move upward has been pretty huge. Look for an exit ~ 1.3277.
I'm not comfortable w/ algorithmic trading as I'm not really familiar w/ the all in & outs of it... Any recommended reading?
I use a mix of 'classic' Technical Analysis & straight up fundamentals.
Bloomberg Pro seems to be the most commonly used software for institutional traders... Its 'pricey'... $1700 a month (as far as I know). If it paid for itself 'over & above' it might be a decent investment.
Do you mean 1.3377...? as its shot up to 1.3393 at the time of this posting. I should've seen that bounce at 1.318 coming but I didnt check in last night.
No, I mean a pullback to near the top of the prior candle on the H4, which corresponds to the Bollinger Band moving average, @ 1.3277. Once the pair has hit extremes, it generally pulls back to the middle. That is basically how I trade: wait for extremes and play the retracements.
I use the longer term charts, like H4 and Daily so that I can find a decent trend of at least four hours, then stick a robot on it and trade in small increments. Get rich slow. Set your trades once or twice a day.
I can actually use my netbook to trade (but I just leave my desktop running...), a $300 computer that I can conncet to anywhere. There really is no need to pay $1700/month for a platform unless you're moving massive amounts of money in the markets.
Me, I'm just small-time. IBFX works great for me.
I've charted these guys & everytime I do... They're dead wrong!
Orly are you a day trader?
I trade daily, yes. Most of my trades (normally...) would last a day to maybe two weeks. But, now, I do more watching and shaking my head than trading. It is fascinating, though.
:S
And here is crunch time for the Euro. Some decision may be made by the end of this trading week and surely into the middle of next. The EURUSD pair is climbing down a declining wedge very near the Fibonacci level that it bounced off of during the last move down. It will move one way or the other- higher or lower.
A sustained break above 1.329 will show a bounce back higher, which may take the pair to 1.37.
A sustained break below 1.31482 should show a sharp move lower, in fits and starts at first, with a downside target of 1.267.
(Note the thousand-pip differential...)
As the Euro goes, so goes the GBPUSD pair. The volatility in the Pound Dollar is much higher but the payoff would be greater. Be careful with this one...
Best of luck trading!
:D
Orly, had EUR long positions on Friday that I didn't hold because I couldn't tell for sure if it was a wedge or triangle. I opted for safety. Oops.
I suspect you are long once again? I see ~1.36 as the target. Isn't that the 50% re-trace?
No. Not long. True, I missed a big opportunity but I am very leery about trading against what I think is the main trend.
That said, however, it is days like this that warp all of my indicators so that makes trading more like guessing than I like. I do like the Euro short from here and took a small short at the end of the trading, ready to bail if the pair moves back above the highs.
I plan to keep the position until this Euro makes up its mind one way or the other. I think it is still headed toward 1.26 but I have no way of knowing except to go by old data that hasn't been skewed. If it does break out of the highs from today, then, yes, the pair is definitely headed higher, perhaps to 1.37 but with the anemic action in the stock market today and the jitters in bonds, it may be that the pair will completely retrace yesterday's move in twenty-four hours.
Playing it safe and keeping an eye on it. Whatever move it does eventually make, there will be plenty of time to get in because the moves should be pretty big.
I am hesitant to go short here because of the Irish vote tomorrow; however, I agree that the long term trend is still clearly down. Especially given that Euro bond spreads continue to increase. The USD also came very close to its 50 day MA (~78.3) when it hit 78.8 this morning. So we could be getting an early jump on the 50 day MA.
There is a potential long-term descending wedge in the EUR-USD that started in late 2008. If that pattern holds, we should see ~1.15 by spring next year.