Trade Against The 90% That Lose Money 21st Dec

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this offers very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.

So what are the signals?

Strong Short 66% Retail Longs

Short 60% Retail Longs

Long 60% Retail Shorts

Strong Long 66% Retail Shorts

We are looking for 60%+ (Ideally for best opportunities 66%+) of retail traders to be trading either long or short a currency pair, we then look for opportunities to fade (trade against) this group. For example if 72.99% of traders are long the USD/CHF we look for opportunities to short that pair.

The pairs that we feel offer the highest opportunity for success are described in the Strong Short and Strong Long areas.

What’s New Today? The USDCAD has made a big shift back into the neutral zone.

Provided by Pivotfarm - Click here to learn about Technical Confluence

Comments

[ThirdCoastSurfer]

Wake Up! 

Retail, what is referred to as dumb money, is nothing other than "Not Goldman, et. al."

The market turns at the inflection points indicated because those that control the market flip the switch and clear the board like a croupier at a tilted roulette wheel. 

Because you are a retail investor, and will always be a retail investor,  you will always be the dumb money and try as you might to  get on the winning side of the trade you'll never understand that they always wait for you to move; and then, and only then, do they take the opposite. 

It's like a no limit poker table. No matter how much you have to bet, no matter how good a hand you have, they always have more money than you and you'll eventually be forced to fold. 

[El Hosel]

   Surfer,

 Wouldn't the dumb money be bullish stocks and bearish the dollar about now?

[El Hosel]

Hi Orly,

  Does  this  indicate 75.9% retail have the Yen going up against the Dollar? 

  I don't trade forex but it looks to me like the Yen is going retrace now, and the dollar bounce.

[Orly]

The tell is going to be AUDUSD reaching its trendline resistance once more @~ 1.006.  That will signal that the Euro bounce has run its course.

From that level, short the EURUSD and the AUDUSD.  Stay out of CHF trades unless they are long-term hold positions.  Next stop for EURUSD is ~1.265 and the initial downside target for AUDUSD is ~0.87.

Best of luck trading!

Olexsandra

[Dirtt]

Timely. Long term CHF is part of big picture. 'Patience' is good advice. TY

[johny2]

Thanks orly. 

[Dixie Normous]

I've only been following the USDCHF and it would appear that longs are making money this whole month, while shorts would be losing, yet the pair has been a strong short every time I read this.

You might have the light to cross the street, but if you don't look both ways you can get fucking killed.

[tekhneek]

You might have the light to cross the street, but if you don't look both ways you can get fucking killed.

Brilliant.