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Trade Against The 90% That Lose Money 4th Jan
What's new today?
No major changes from the holiday update positioning today. The overall trends over the holiday period are currently still intact despite some pull backs in recent trade.
Click image to enlarge
Provided by Pivotfarm via the technical analysis blog
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i dont know where this fella gets his data from - but i can tell you its wrong. usdjpy longs got cleansed in the move to 8094 last week and aud positioning is very fat and long
Could today finally be the turn in the USDCHF?
Last week the commercial traders turned bearish on all three major indexes. Doesn't happen very often. The last time was the April highs. We'll have to see how this plays into the seasonal strength.
The full post is on our blog.
http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com/2010/12/29/ending-on-a-high-no...
Remain in your short AUDUSD positions to the initial downside target of ~0.97354.
Remain long in the USDJPY position to the initial upside target of ~ 87.646. That's a long way, so be patient!
Keep your scalping robots alert long on the EURAUD, GBPJPY and the EURJPY for the foreseeable future.
Best of luck trading!
Orly
That's a very specific pair of targets and quite a low one on the AUD. Would you mind explaining why so low and so specific on the AUD? Just very curious.
Sure. The level of ~0.97354 is the 100% Fibonacci retracement level as given from the high of 07.15.2008. Moves above this level have left the AUDUSD pair quite over-extended and the move back to this level (and hardly "low" at all...) will simply move the price back to more historic norms.
And I say "not low at all" because the real downside target, after fits, starts and retracements is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level @ ~ 0.78606, as meaured with the highs of 07.15.2008 and the lows of 10.26.2008.
That is actually where the pair is headed. It may take eight to twelve months to get there.
Both the AUD and the JPY have been showing what some would say is "incredible" strength given their own problems at home. Once the markets settle in, interest rates reach some credit-worthy level and traders realise that the EUR is not going to fall through the floor, the AUD and the JPY will both retrace to more historic norms.
Look at a monthly chart of the EURAUD pair and you can see just how ridiculous it is to be buying Ozzie dollars right now.
:D
I didn't realise you traded (or at least speculated in) such long TFs. Thanks for explaining!
It seems that the unbridled complacency throughout the various Markets is setting us up for something special.
it always looks the same. lol!
Hey Margaris the overall trends do not change a huge amount day to day. What you are seeing today was pretty much how the research looked from mid December through the holiday period.
It certainly isn't the only thing you would use to pull the trigger, just an insight into market biases and opinion.
Until you are on the wrong side of it; then it grows fangs.
OT (well, almost); seems like one of the people cited on these pages in the last week suggested that GBP/JPY could be the trade of the year for 2011. Don't recall who, or the circumstances, but do recall a reaction on reading it.