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Trading Update

Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/02/2009 15:59 -0500



Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP

We saw the 100-dma on the Dax on the lows, which was the last push we expected short-term. In S&P future we made new lows, though barely. Intraday we triggered a double bottom at 1,035 on the S&P futures, and we have started seeing divergence on the lows. Copper has been struggling to sell-off along with other risky assets today, Gold was up all day even with equities on their lows, and USD crosses haven't made new lows either. My original inclination was to see 1,012/1,020 before any reasonable corrective rally in both time and size would happen, but given the price action today I see the set-up for a rally to 1,052, and possibly 1,070.5 depending if we have or not finished the 5 leg impulse from the tops. I will watch very carefully the price action around 1,065/1,070 if we get there as I believe the market will present there a great opportunity to initiate fresh shorts.

Good luck trading,

Nic

4.666665
Your rating: None Average: 4.7 (3 votes)

»


by bruce wayne
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:07
#117546

We won't test 1060 let alone 1070.  No corrective rally coming.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:16
#117560

CSCO Wednesday

by msorense
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:44
#117585

Never say never.  Expect it will and trade accordingly.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 17:03
#117601

maybe 1042 retest
we wont see 1070 for years

by SDRII
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:10
#117551

transports - another down day

by deadhead
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:19
#117564

well said, sdr...a stunning divergence...i watch .tran closely as well.

they aren't shipping shit......

 

by bruce wayne
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:24
#117569

But, but, but the ISM is expanding!

by deadhead
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:20
#117565

well said, sdr...a stunning divergence...i watch .tran closely as well.

they aren't shipping shit......

 

by desk-jockey
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:23
#117568

I like fresh shorts....

by SV
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:35
#117577

...especially considering most Bears have stained them since March.  That's a long time to trudge around in soiled action.

by Jim in MN
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:34
#117576

Expect large shipments of adult diapers to cushion the screaming plunge.

Need more C-C-C-Chaos ahead of the US midterms.

by lizzy36
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:34
#117578

damm, i wish volcker would put his teeth in when he speaks on tv

by bugs_
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:35
#117580

Yes Nic love your posts would like to see some

commentary on the transports action as well.  They

seem to be leading lately.

by QevolveQ
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:38
#117581

Agreed Nic. 1065/70 area is spot on, we will test this area in one of the next 3 sessions. I don't think we will just continue to break down after rallying for so long. We've already sold off a lot here recently, in the 6%+ neighborhood off the S&P highs. I think we will get some positive news this week out of the Fed that will drive the mkt higher. Maybe some measures will be taken to shore up the consumer's treacherous downward spiral...another liquidity program = print & pump = rally.

 

The question is where do we go from there. Given that the longer term 8 month bull trend is still intact I believe we will reach fresh index highs this month, most likely ahead of November option expiry. That should be the last hurrah for the bulls as we enter a multi-month consolidation and slow grinding selloff that leaves most market participants bruised & battered. We'll see a lot more volatility games & limited sense of direction. It will be a tough market to trade from either side.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 17:10
#117610

I think if we get to 1065 we make a run at the top right now. I'm watching 1055 a little more closely. I have a trendline from the big drop last Monday that has my attention. Why? Mostly the RUT. We can argue about whether the SPX has broken down (I think it's close if it hasn't). There's no argument about the RUT.

by Gordon_Gekko
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:52
#117592

BUY GOLD NOW.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 16:59
#117597

Say Gordo, Bud and I are buying Bluestar. We're buying it all. When we get control, we're going to convert it from an airline to a gold mining company. Goldman Sachs has figured out a way to use 727's to extract gold from the ground. Bluestar, baby. All the way!

by Anonymous
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 17:01
#117600

I’m hearing way too many bears trying to get fancy timing another bounce here and betting on a move to 1070.

Bad move IMO. Instead, make sure you have a substantial short position and add to it on any strength.

Market is very vulnerable right now and will sell off near term. Don’t miss it by trying to get cute.

by Gordon_Gekko
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 17:36
#117638

"add to it on any strength"

You should never EVER add to a losing position.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 18:16
#117677

John Paulson's subprime short went against him initially in 2006.

by Gordon_Gekko
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 19:07
#117734

I doubt he kept ADDING to it WHILE IT WAS GOING AGAINST HIM.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 17:53
#117656

posted by QevolveQ: Agreed Nic. 1065/70 area is spot on, we will test this area in one of the next 3 sessions. I don't think we will just continue to break down after rallying for so long. We've already sold off a lot here recently, in the 6%+ neighborhood off the S&P highs. I think we will get some positive news this week out of the Fed that will drive the mkt higher. Maybe some measures will be taken to shore up the consumer's treacherous downward spiral...another liquidity program = print & pump = rally.

The question is where do we go from there. Given that the longer term 8 month bull trend is still intact I believe we will reach fresh index highs this month, most likely ahead of November option expiry. That should be the last hurrah for the bulls as we enter a multi-month consolidation and slow grinding selloff that leaves most market participants bruised & battered. We'll see a lot more volatility games & limited sense of direction. It will be a tough market to trade from either side.

-THIS ENTIRE POST PERFECTLY BOTTLES THE ESSENCE OF HOW AND WHY SO MANY PEOPLE LOST EVERYTHING THEY HAD POST DOT.COM BUST. THIS ENTIRE POST IS ALSO A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF HOW AND WHY THE SAME TYPES OF PEOPLE WILL LOOSE THE SAME TYPES OF MONEY ALL OVER AGAIN...

by Gordon_Gekko
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 19:08
#117737

Which is why I suggest that you BUY GOLD NOW.

by gookempucky
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 22:03
#117912

Better get it soon because it will all be gone---

India buys 203 metric tonnes from IMF----central bank buying has begun-train leaving.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=avU_tC42T8OA

by Anonymous
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 19:09
#117739

To anonymous 1753:

I disagree with you(I did not write the earlier post). The fact is, nobody knows where this market is going from here, and certainly not you. If you won't admit this market is difficult to trade from here, you are either a liar or an idiot. Since you can't seem to turn caps lock off or spell "lose" correctly, I am going with option number two. Please stop spamming a good forum.

by QevolveQ
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 19:39
#117760

Do share your wisdom grammatically challenged anonymous poster...

2002 was in fact my 2nd best year of trading ever, with 2001 being the 1st. This year has not been as kind, but I am well in the black after a tough March to May season. 

by Lionhead
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 19:22
#117750

Hi Nic, love that diamond pattern you spotted on the S&P on the first 1-2-3 move that was the right side. I think you're right on. Keep 'em comin'.........

by beavis
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 19:30
#117755

anyone want to help explain to me the nuts and bolts of why the SPY spread has been going so high lately?  tweet from TD showed it going to 8 cents today more than once.  how is that possible with the most liquid security on earth?

by Anonymous
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 19:38
#117759

No reason to get crazy in here, especially if you've already made your year. My sense is the market wants to just churn here for a while and get back some of the easy $$ it gave up over the last 6 months. Cash is a position.

by Anonymous
on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 22:25
#117935

I am not a financial analyst,but I analyze numbers from an accounting perspective. So I wanna ask those who are more on the finance side:If I have a business that don't have tangible value(that is negative equity after discardibg goodwill),will anybody buy it from me expecting to recoupe his investment in 25 years?(the new york times is applauding the black decker merger).

by Grand Supercycle
on Tue, 11/03/2009 - 05:35
#118123

 

BULLISH VIX AND USD WARNINGS CONTINUE.

 

MORE:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

 

 

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