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Treasury Complex Collapses To Celebrate Last QE2 POMO
The ever-recurring and oh so critical rhetorical Bill Gross Treasury question, which the head of PIMCO retweeted earlier this morning for emphasis, is starting to demand answers. And once today's window dressing exercise in stocks is over (which alas will not do much for most hedge funds which continue to underperform their benchmarks by a wide margin), and when the world wakes up to the realization that crude prices are rapidly heading back to triple digit levels, not to mention the dramatic rise in interest rates, vacuum tubes and momos will need to think hard and long about what the next upside catalyst will be.
And longer-term, which is not good for all those investors who rolled out of money markets and into government bond holdings:
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There will be no QE3.
However POMO will continue into a program called MO and MO.
ROFL! Priceless.
Yeah lets get this par-ta started bitchez!
probably will be some kind of QE3 besides chairsatan's reinvestments. It all depends on chairsatan cash flow and the earnings bankster facilities will make around the globe during upcoming economic bloodshed.
In any case there will be no soup for ordinary sheeps!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNwbjcuQUv8
Doesnt matter, all the crackhead equity markets care about is endless Hefty bags full of free crack rocks to keep going. Thats over.
Actually it will mirror a Japanese program, called DO MO!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/06/30/desiderata/
...and to think folks were calling me crazy for putting 1% in Eurodollar puts...
Chicago PMI go back to bed. This is the real news today.
You are crazy. Go back to bed!
Soon as I rollover some of my 2012 Eurodollar put gains into some physical PMs.
Put a dagger in the heart of a banker today, roll gains into PM's.
Nothing wrong with PMs mayhem, but don't abandon your eurodollar puts just yet... Remember what happened to eurodollar rates in the fall of '08? I imagine that'll happen again. Maybe the same for euribor come to think of it.
That's why I say rollover "some"...
QE3, bitchez
No QE3, well not in the form equity junkies expect in the form of piles of Hefty bags from Bernank filled with free crack rocks so the crack party can continue for the ridiculously pumped up equity markets.
800 lb crack addicted equity gorilla about to go on a cold turkey rampage.
In a highly complex system of this size (the global financial debt bubble) it is impossible to predict when increasing entropy will result in collapse. It will (in my opinion) collapse as thousands of years of history proves it will. In this case the probability of collapse increases significantly due to rapidly increasing global resource shortages and related cost increases for said resources.
Civil unrest and revolt will probably be the external influence that pops the bubble as its the one component that the financial oligarchy cant ultimately control (and they have gotten very good at controlling the bubble).
So, given that the pop cant be predicted,,,, we can only rely on the quality of our trend following algorithms and targeting the most optimal producing investments.
Longer term it does look like interest rates have reversed. Note the PSAR sell on 10Yr bonds (ie, increasing interest rates).
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s218709807]&disp=P
Also, FYI note the relative performance of other assets to the price of gold very long term
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s238082247]&disp=P
Hmmmmmm?
"In a highly complex system of this size (the global financial debt bubble) it is impossible to predict when increasing entropy will result in collapse. It will (in my opinion) collapse as thousands of years of history proves it will. In this case the probability of collapse increases significantly due to rapidly increasing global resource shortages and related cost increases for said resources."
Nice perceptive observation chartcruzer. It will likely be a Black Swan that does it, which by definition is unpredictable.
Be cautious everyone! Prepare! TEIN!
funny, I was just thinking today that everything is looking like Quantum theroy vs Newtonian theroy. How the tiny plus and minus of waves can end up being a tital wave if all the pluses end up at the same point at the same time. It is how ALGOs work...until they don't, and then you have BIG losses from all thoses little tiny minuses.
...And longer-term, which is not good for all those investors who rolled out of money markets and into government bond holdings.
bond prices go down then the coupon buys more shares going forward. If you meant "investors trying to use bonds for short term cash access like a money market fund may get hosed..." I would tend to agree. The worst thing that could happen to bond buyers would be that prices stay high for the next twenty years then crash just as they need the money. That is the maximum pain scenario and the one we will have.
Time for a new overseas threat to distract attention away from the shitty economy
Iran war set to go down in days, its what the SPR is really all about, places like DebkaFile are on fire with impending invasion stories.
Way more going on in the world than what a PMI report or stock shows.
Uh, sheep, DEBKA correct prediction rate is about 3%.
You think the timing of the Lebanon Hariri indictments is not a coincidence? The UN inquiry is widely seen as an exercise in western/Saudi data seeks. The Senate just passed a resolution warning about a unilateral declaration of statehood, a brushback to the stern Saudi editorial last week suggesting it is time to move past the US/Israel. All this as the ships set for sail in the Flotilla part duex are finding themselves sabotaged in Greek/Turkey ports. Turkey warning Syria over border incursions and threatening action within a week (last week) after last month forcing down an Iranian cargo plane. US warns this AM about resumption of Iranian attacks in Iraq as Gates said negotiations with Iraq government for a workable solution to keeping the US troops past Ye mandate is ongoing. Iran bragging about missile silos and space launch by YE. UK leaks that Iran is testing nuke capable missiles. Pakistan tells the US yesterday to pack up the drone base in the southeast and pound sand. Egypt talking about postponing elections and yest'd postponed verdicts around police brutality. Meanwhile, the Mossad officer captured by the Egyptians with dual passport (US/Israel) had his detainment extended. The Saudi’s have warned they will build their own nukes if Iran goes nuke – something of a misnomer as they cut a consignment deal with Pakistan. Nary a mention of the Al Arabiya story suggesting Yemen president hit with US missile. He remains in a Saudi hospital recovering or is it detainment? The US is running naval games with Philippines while China warns the US to stay out of the South China Sea. Yes't China hosted the "outlaw" leader from Sudan and cut an oil deal despite calls by the UN to arrest him. France is dropping weapons in Libya apparent contravention of the NATO. The Russians warned both Turkey and the US about missile defense ships in the Black Sea as they resumed testing of their new MIRV SLBM.
just how do the two Georges play into all this? Deeeeeeppppp relationships here, follow the money.
great run down that the MSM could not do in 100 years.
And, I think there is more going on. We are in Afghanistan to secure rare earth deposits ( NOT opium or terrorists) from the foot hills of the mountain chain that extends to Mongolia. Mongolia is the real prize in the room that is being kept quiet. Land locked Mongolia, a prize we have our eyes on just like Russia and especially China does at this moment. I predict China will march into Mongolia and claim it as a Chinese territory by history as they have with Taiwan and Nepal...and when they do, no one will stop them with out THE big War everyone keeps talking about. Mongolia has everything the world wants including 40 million ounces of gold, coking coal, oil, rare earth metals... and no army.
Bets anyone? Investors beware.
Dog, war with Iran?
No way a land war with Iran. No way.
US and / or Israel might try airstrikes or blockade, well could be. Best if the USA just stays out of it.
We're not known for doing what's best for us, now are we?
To answer Bills question - I'll buy them (ok, not all of them but once they are priced appropriately on par w/ Greece's bonds I'm in...which from the looks of things may be by days end?)
Just imagine what happens when they rollout massive T issuance (once farcical debt ceiling jacked up)...wow, seems tooooo simple...what the hell am I missing?
It's gonna all fold like a cheap card-table. But, meanwhile...... I can feel Bernakie's balls rhythmically tapping my butt as I take it up the un-lubed ass! Damn!
I wouldn't think you'd feel anything more than a little prick?
Very very funny Hambone. Good one! :-)
ORI
Would you expect anything less from someone named hambone?
Why Gene, is hambone=funnybone?
ORI
The 80% volume buyer is gone...Treasury downgrades starting in 2-3 weeks...adding $120B per month in supply...sounds Bizarro World bullish to me.
Well, not to me exactly, but to the 'puters it does.
As the economy improves and growth picks up, it's only natural for Treasuries yields to rise. How the government can afford to cover this increase in interest expense is a whole different matter...
Well of course, the economies improvement just happened to coincide w/ the Fed's conclusion of QE2 (today) and that's why yields are off like a scalded cat...pure coincidence.
"Economy improving'? What?
The name should have tipped you off - Man Without a Clue
Is there any chance we can see somewhere chart of bond volumes traded?
exactly. treasuries have been soaring into this rally--which of course while potentially SIGNALLING a double dip is also providing liquidity for runs in risk assets. Risk assets include but are not limited to commodities, real estate in the farm belt, foreign and of course domestic equities. Of course no one is arguing it's "open spigot time" at what few banks are left--so if "it's" going up at all it's for good reason. Needless to say if we're trading this sudden and massive rally in treasuries as a "prognosticator" of a double dip then clearly we have been mistaken since equities have been rallying since November irregardless of what the economy is doing.
QE ends and DXY is dropping while equities are rising. Makes total sense.
/s
Well for this hour anyway.
Last hurrah.
And the big drop will likely happen on a big uptick day as well...rolling it all into PM's as we speak.
Good luck. Party hardy Sheeple-merica, and celebrate your 'Independence' (LMFAO) this weekend in a national drunken stupor BBQ feast like the normalcy bias morons americans mostly are today. R.I.P.
Personally, these days I look forward to Bastille Day.
with no QE, and although I made great money and with treasuries and am now short with tbt, I think I stated my target top on this site a while back. one of the easier trades is likely to be long treasuries end quarter and front run the repo 105.
Respectable position but I don't think the real bond rout starts until after equites are in the shitter and QE3/OT2 is announced.
Exactly.
if you were the big boys and didn't want the market to collapse with the end of QE, you would go with the flow and buy bonds, not flipping them, and dropping the market. sell them at the end of QE with new foreower to reinvest. may put a head fake on all who though the end of qe would lead to big drops. the main thing we go back to is having to take some profits to buy lower and push up the market higher. instead of the ever going up with QE.
Yes theres always someone to sell the top to, so everyone can buy the bottom, and drive up stocks again in order to again sell higher to a bigger fool.
Now I have no idea how theres always someone far dumber, yet far richer, for everyone out there in the market to sell the top to, but good luck with it all anyway.
Wait til the debt ceiling gets raised and the pent-up tsunami of Treasury issuance cascades out.
This is just a warm up. You ain't seen nothing yet.
i hope so but fundamentals don't apply anymore.
Do you think they return that couple hundo they took from the federal pensions? Or do they keep the debt ceiling locked as a method to continue raiding other pensions, IRA's and 401ks. That's what I would do if I were the EE.
Precedent set, and nary a whimper (baaah) of protest from the sheeple ...
this is the day you get that the market is driven for traders. instead of holding back before earnings which would make logical sense, the market is all about pushing above technical indicators and breakout points. don't forget to watch for false breakouts.
PIMPco's Gross gives Wanker Timmay gas...
is this the right time to short Euro?
think you should wait 1,465-1467. few days more
imho
Just bought 1,000 shares SH, looks like a good place to start my short position. No more POMO means no more MOMO.
I give them a week or two before some "Oh Shit!" event brings them back, sniveling whining and blethering, to the printing presses.