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Treasury Free Fall
One entertaining side effect of soon paying $4.00 for gas again while housing prices keep crashing is that bond prices will soon be very amusing. But no worries, at least that paper profit in the 401(k) which the baby boomers will soon need to start extracting is up for the day - Bernanke's Friday mission - accomplised. In the meantime, better get a whole lot of those OMO actions ready on deck.
hat tip J Bravo
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what the fuck ( looking and the first capture)
this is the most fuckingly outrageous analysis I have ever read.
“We were able to break out on the upside Monday and more significantly, we broke out and held those gains,” Ross said. “This shows the ability of the oil market, along with equities, to shrug off bad news and focus in the good news. This is a good sign for technicians.” --- A fucking moron at Auerbach Grayson told to Bloomberg news reporter Mark Shenk. Hey Goldman is holding the highest open positions for the last seven months in oil complex. Anybody disagrees with me!
To shrug off the bad news and focus on the good news. I mean what? let us say that a fucking 10 million go jobless and DOW back to 16000 on the prospect good news. Naturally, unemployed fuckers cannot go beyond 10 million,right. The oldest profession will take care. And Goldman sach's would be owning whore houses, thanks to the tiny BB's blessings.
I cann't wait to see the scenario. Dow at 16000 and beggers in millions watching the tango. Wah! what a scene.
This will explain everything: Space Cash
http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/224688/?searchterm=space+cash
Dollar seems to have benefited significantly from this little 'transaction'. Back above 78 which I suppose is somewhat critical level to prevent drop to 72.
Above 78, but for how long?
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12573.html
Ah thanks. I'm a big fan of Dr Jim Willie, it's always a nice surprise to see him release a new public article. Time to get coffee to sit down and enjoy a good read.
This bit was interesting:
"The [Treasury] auctions have continued, but their schedule is very frightening since the volume for given days and weeks equals what was once volume for an entire month one year ago. The press networks tell of successful funding for the bonds, even though additional needs are required to keep the stock market afloat. Two deceptions here occur. First, by means of USDollar Swap Facilities, the USDept Treasury is handing money to friendly foreign central banks in order to purchase USTreasurys in hidden or custodial accounts, all indirect bidders. Without them, the auctions would fail miserably. Second, the bid-to-cover ratio is reported in a manner that includes the official primary bond dealers. They, however, are obligated to bid on all auctions. So the 1.92 bid/cover seen last week was an actual failure, since only 92% of bids occurred outside the primary dealers who hustle to unload their inventory. More double counting comes, now that Toronto Dominion and Royal Bank (both of Canada) as well as Nomura (of Japan) join the primary bond dealer ranks. This road leads to staggering hidden monetization of USTreasurys and outright auction failures, BOTH, with severe damage done to the USDollar confidence and reputation."
You mean EUR collapse, USD massive rally?
Or that doesn't fit with the program.
I agree.
The GBP got hit yesterday after the BoE decided to increase their QE purchases. The Euro may be following it down. Dollar seems to be up on positive labor data. It's not inverse the market today.
and to think, the bank of England decided to keep theirs going and we most likely won't. Hmmm... I don't know but if the markets actually do roll over, and Pounds are flying around trash in a landfill while dollars are no longer being printed, You got yourself a recipe for a Pound disaster.
I think this policy divergence is a MAJOR mistake.
England's CPI is already 1.8, just twenty basis points from their stated target. They actually have some risk of stagflation. Anyway, the last two weeks, the pound would have been up with the market on improved risk apatite. Today the USD/JPY is leading everything up, and that pair isn't correlated to anything now that bank rates are essentially the same.
The US and the UK have a "special" relationship. Is it a safe assumtpion to say a major currency will nto survivie this debt debacle intactr? Would exploding the GBP be favorable to the USD? Would the Us and the UK build an alliance of the desperate? Options are running low
I just drove a truck up Rosenberg's ass !
I am literally fighting running gun battles with Bulls in the office here. How can anyone reconcile the yield surge with a recovery when 40-100% of the economy is being supported by govt borrowing and the "hope" of continued refi...??
Just don't let the "ones who got us into this mess do a lot of talking."
Obama's words:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jifjRVLVjzA&feature=player_embedded
Turns out Dear Leader is a smug jerk.
Paging Turbo, Summers, oh wait bring the whole economic team...Does he actually listen to himself
Funny how the Yen blew past 97 this morning. Prop the dollar up and smash gold. Nice work fellas!
actually it seems gold should be down more than it is. I'd say it's holding up ok so far.
You're right. Over the past week or so there appears to be a big time buyer at the dips.
Paulson ( the other one )
Yeah. He has to protect his interest in AngloGold Ashanti. If gold drops he suddenly has to liquidate $1.3B in illiquid stock. Not the best decision from a hedgie
that and the fact that he bought 4 billion worth of gold and gold derivatives in April, and has said that he will make his position larger on a monthly basis. And as far as i know he put another 2 bil since then into gold and gold derivatives. But i don't think its a crazy move, its a long term strategy and he has apparently valued gold as cheap and decided to get ape shit and buy, because we all know inflation is coming sooner or later
I see gold as a currency and one that will survive when we run out of paper. It diversifies risk from hyper-inflation and deflation that would impact currencies.
true that AP .... I'm lucky enough to be located near the factory they melt the stuff and the guy who owns the business is a long time friend, i can get an early signal when the new shipment in arriving ... i buy every couple of months a mid-size amount of gold, and even though i don't hold dollars it makes me sleep peacefully at nigh ...
GOLD is a store of VALUE. Not an investment hedge. It is a hedge....period. No up..no down. You want something that moves with the dollar...play OIL
ditto BenClown .... and the Boys at JPM and SAC know that very well ...
I think gold has held up well so far. Didn't notice the yen though -- thanks.
next week will be volatile ))
see 4.10 on 10 years
Your bearishness cracks me up so much. you would've lost so many people so much money if you worked as a strategist.
Oh, yeah, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. It's just all so funny. Like your raging herpes outbreak. So funny.
I am Chumbawamba.
If you're looking for tips on how to line your pockets with coin, you've come to the wrong site
How so? My SPY's and IWM's are rocketing knowing the Fed won't let them fall.
Yeah this is a site for perma bear patting each others back and missing the biggest rally of the decade
You're going to get fucking DESTROYED later this year.
So... have you made back even half of your losses from the prior 12 months?
And when the trap door opens on this market, will you be doubling down all the way to the next bottom?
We're at DefCon 5 in terms of the economy, financial systems, and the market.
Make sure you have a bunker somewhere - remember, duck & cover.
the kool-aid you drink cracks me up. what did you say in Oct 2007? same thing i bet, "all is good. all is well. la di da. Im a sheep, bah bah bah".
what exactly do you think is going on in the world? this is not a business cycle recession. take one look at estonia/lithuania/latvia and that alone should scare the sh*t out of you.
this is not a test. this is real. you stay long. and try not to sh*t yourself on the way down.
The markets are financial economics, not political economics. If the Fed says equities go higher, you are allowed to go long make money.
You folks have been calling for a complete collapse for 6 plus months now. So let's have a little wager - if the world economy hasn't fallen into complete ruin by Q2 2010 then I get your 2 year supply of MRIs you have stocked up in your basement (probably left over from your Y2K freak out). If you're right and armageddon really does come by at least Q2 2010, you get my entire 401k portfolio.
I figure if one of us is right, then our respective wager is going to be worthless anyway. So what's the harm?
You're fucking idiot....hahaha
MRIs? Bears have been hoarding Magnetic Resonance Imaging machines?
Does this have anything to do with health care reform?
Didn't you get the memo, they changed it to Meals Ready to Ingest.
But enough with changing the subject. I'm still looking for a date. Hell, I'll be generous, forget quarters, just give me the YEAR it all comes tumbling down.
period between sep. 09 and dec. 21st 2012
Dude, we had the collapse. And we are still having it, and we will go on having it for a long time. If you think the stock market is the measure of an economy, Zimbabwea is the ultimate economic powerhouse.
Methinks you will need Meals on Wheels, not MRIs, by the time you figure out whats up. Or you will go MIA.
Good luck cashing your confetti money for retirement.
Illustrated version:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/Bob%20Farrell.jpg
In the US military, it's MRE. Meal Ready to Eat (or excrete, take your pick).
http://www.mreinfo.com/
Q2 2010 then I get your 2 year supply of MRIs
WTF is wrong with you, medical equipment is not a hedge
OT: Transportation stocks getting a massive pump today
I has theory. In the likely scenario over the next 4 weeks, the Fed sends strong signals it will not ease for any forseeable future and Japan will be signaling it will tighten within a year or so. If those are the signals sent to the market then its game on for the dollar carry trade. And if the dollar carry trade picks up the treasury complex will likely be sold off something fierce to fund it.
Or maybe not, but it makes sense to me.
Japan has elections coming up in about 37 days or so, it looks like the ruling party for the past 50+ years might get thrown out. If they do, the opposition party has promised (who knows if they keep this) to issue USD credit in yen denominated bonds.
The natural trade would be to sell the dollar and buy the yen, yes?
And a random nugget about the elecion...it would seem the New Komeito Party would be inclined to join a coalition with the DPJ, so a push falls in the DPJ's favor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Komeito
Thanks.
The US would just have a conversation with the new party. Talk softly and carry a big HAARP.
Ya that is bit disturbing in it's own right. Gold is just sitting there telling everyone FU. No matter what. I'm sure they are still running swap runs to lower price in the index but it's like people have identified them and throw the bad data out.
S&P's hit 1014, which is the 38.2% Fib of the whole bear market move lower 1576-666
nothing out of the ordinary, when you compare the past bear market rallies ( which hate to do) but so far this depression is nothing out of the ordinary. I wouldn't be surprised if the snp hits 1200-1250 range before the big retracement ( i will ad some charts later ti validate my point )
Could do. Nasdaq 100 has already done a 50% Fib at 1628 2239-1018.
If the bulls are going to fail, then this is place for it to happen, if not, then it's off to the races again.
they are not gonna let it go down more than 5 %. It would crush any chance the present Congress line-up has for re-election and would kill all of Barry's plans ... heck, they might be crazy enough to push the Dow to 10 000,snp to 1300, and NASDAQ to 2300 and just trade it sideways for the whole 2010 and drop all of it like a rock in the fall of 2010 after the political climate stabilizes ... not an impossible thing to do ...
Not convinced, too many external influences over which they have no control, which could throw spanners in the works.
I just think Wall Street is doing what it always does, acting like idiots. The same people that were panic selling out at 666 are the same people who are panic buying in at 1014. Somewhere in the middle is probably about right.
Interesting that the Nasdaq 100 hasn't made a new rally high today, well not yet anyway.
true; March was oversold and August is overbought .. i think snp has a fair value somewhere around 770-810 range ... but i would disagree with that there is to much external influences ... if you watch all those big, and mid up days the volume was anemic; and those sell day when you had +250 down days on the DOW the volume was pretty strong. and after 5 months of computer trading i don't think there is much non-institutional money in the market ...mostly puters trading among themselves ( 70%) ... and i would say it is manageable ... if the dump was meant to happen it would happen when the dow hit 9000 mark ....
I think this irrational exhuberance will end at TNX at 3.99 like last time... this will form a double-top, then down from there... so 3 more business days until Bernanke's meeting... the shorts have to suffer more.. myself included. I switched horses from Bullish to Bearish on the same day two weeks ago when the spy went just above 950... how unlucky! My portfolio is down 20% in two weeks! I cannot take a loss now, as if my theory holds, the next leg down will be severe.. perhaps it starts next week.
I dunno, I think bears have it with that FOMC announcement. If Bubbles Ben announces the end of QE then a big buyer exits and the market swoons. If Bubbles instead extends QE then we're likely to get the same as the UK...some buying that doesn't break any resistance on the way up and even LESS foreign interest than before. Either way its just this guy's opinion that shortly 3.99 will be the support, not resistance.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/5983387/Gilt-prices-soar-after-Bank-of-England-extends-money-printing-plan.html
who do you have to blow around here to get your account approved?
check your e-mail
Me... Y? U got some time on your hands?
You have to blow Bernanke at the next FOMC meeting. We operate on a system of escalating dares.
good ?....
it took a couple days for me. patience grasshopper.
that would be marla.
good luck with that.
Ground control. The US dollar has lift off.
Unbelievable.
hopium/green shoot fuel mix ..
hahaha...good one, ya Cheeky Bastard.
SNAP helps put food on the table for some 31 million people per month in FY 2009. ...
Average unemployment 9.3 %
Difficult to understand
America Sellout...
No mention of USD strength today, TD? Oh wait, doesn't add into the "Fed destroying dollar" theory.
thanks for pointing out. It fits perfectly with the theory that Europe and Asia are starting to realize they are behind the curve in their own currency destruction.
It is a race to the nirvana of creative self destruction...
You call that "strength?" The boys are just buying some time so they can get out of Dodge before the posse wakes up.
If USD taking a gasp of air above 78 constitutes "USD strength" I just might spit out the coffee out onto the screen.
*Nevermind* the
1) MACD crossover (50week / 20week) ,
2) Persistent (>6 months) weakness in RSI yet not oversold
2) the deteriorating global geopolitical situation (Pakistan, Georgia, etc),
3) negative current account deficit,
4) negative trade deficit,
5) zero percent interest rates (lets play Axel Merk's favourite game "Calculate the differential"!)
6) silent failed Treasury auction (1.92bid/cover) the other day, so that gives us
A) atrocious technicals and B) atrocious fundamentals.
Yeah of course the dollar could reverse and rally hard -- because the big boys like to game the serfs -- but afaict the indictators say dollar will continue to puke from last night's credit bender unless the doctors administer IV fluids.
It's called "beggar thy neighbor".
I don't understand the obsession with the strength of one fiat currency against another either. They are all trying to debase their currency. The Brits in a suprise (to some) announcement increase their debasement. The Canadians are freaking out that their dollar is so strong. The Japanese...nothing needs to be said there. Chinese? Currency debasement is institutionalized there.
It's a crazy, unstable system that won't last. In the interim worry about the cost of real things, like oil and other commodities. That's the only way to preserve your wealth.
i told you guys the dollar was preparing to reverse on Wed when everyone was eyeing the trapdoor (remember RSI was diverging?) DXY is going to par
Par with GBP or with EUR? And what's your timeline?
"DXY is going to par"
Too bad I can't figure out how to post LOLcats to your statment so I will just have to say ROFL.
hahahaha ... awesome ..
Trade deficit, current account deficit bla bla bla. Impossible the dollar can't rally huh. Are you trading at all? I didn't think so.
Read what I wrote -- I said "of course the dollar could reverse and rally hard." We are living in a command economy. If you can trade it , more power to you, but don't misrepresent my position.
What makes you so sure the dollar is weaker than the Euro?
I'm not sure -- just from a technical and fundamental perspective I believe the dollar is in trouble, unless there is intervention or an 'external event'. The Chinese have been vocal lately in their displeasure with the US financial management. (Remember Geithner getting laughed at by the Chinese students when he told them their investment was safe?) In terms of Europe, I agree that's coming apart at the seams too. The Club Med vs. Germany divergence persists. Eastern Europe is also in trouble from what I understand (Latvia, Hungary, etc) -- and just got a call during lunch from a friend who was explaining he sees possible market and currency weakness in Turkey, etc this could spill over into the Euro and benefit the dollar.
Another genius joystick jock. Because a 1% move is a rally, right?
You guys with hummingbird attention spans need to figure out how to look at a more than 5 minute chart. USD has a short since 1971.
Now get back in there and hammer that F12 key, kiddie.
I like that the bulls are getting bold. I feel better about the puts I picked up.
This week Prechter called for a stock market top in the near future, major U.S. dollar bottom and multi-year dollar rally. He seems to be pretty accurate these days.
Looking at the entire mess, I have to say at some point "OMO" will become "OBO" (or best offer). Why is it that there are not millions on the mall in Washington, DC with pitchforks and torches having a "Tea party" with the numb-nuts who are sitting there telling everyone to ignore the (additional) massive debt,turn over control of the entire thing to the Fed and trying to ram health scare reform down our throats?
I got the CAPTCHA question right! Yeay.
Never let reality get in the way of a good rally
Can someone please tell me what the hell I am looking at regarding the two pictures and what Mr. Durden is attempting to say.
Tyler, once more sometimes you need to do a bit of writing about what you are posting for those who aren't finance pros, but would like to knw what you are saying.
expect the s&P to go up until 10 year hits 4 percent.