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Treasury Redeems A Gargantuan $643 Billion In Treasuries In April
A week ago we were practically speechless when we showed that the Treasury had redeemed nearly $494 billion in Bills in April. A truly stunning number and an indication of just how much cash the Treasury needs to have access to to keep rolling its ridiculously short average maturity debt load. Today we stand even more speechless: according to today's DTS, the Treasury has now redeemed $596 billion in Bills in Aprils: an all time world record, even when accounting for the Fed's steroid abuse period of SFP 1 (we are currently in the second iteration). Add $47 billion in Notes and there are almost $650 billion in redemptions. This number is simply ridiculous. Forget the interest expense: this ever increasing roll is the number one danger to the US and world economy. Should the Treasury be unable to keep issuing shorter and shorter dated debt (and it already is skirting away from even the belly of the curve), it is for all intents and purposes game over.
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Mighty Ben and his technicolor dreamcoat!
My apologies for hijacking the top spot but have you checked out the FDIC tonight?
5 banks closed so far on Bank Failure Friday (3 from Puerto Rico) totaling a $5.9 Billion charge to the DIF.
That's what I said, $5.9 Billion loss to the Deposit Insurance Fund.
CalculatedRisk has been writing about PR for a few months now - talking about these exact banks. Yesterday he wrote that someone reported to him that hundreds of *dentists* flew in to PR this week ... but there is no dentist convention (nice cover, FDIC...).
If you believe what Denniger says, these estimated losses are far understated ... because (to a certain degree) they reflect the marked valuations that the banks had on their real estate....
I could not believe my eyes CD. I had to do a double take. What would you put the over/under for total number of bank failures for 2010.
I suspect we will see at least 500 for 2010, with a real acceleration starting mid summer, though it feels like it's happening now. But who knows. If the administration feels it's getting too bad too fast, they won't take over banks as quickly and simply let them get worse. Nothing is unthinkable when you're trying to keep the corpse from sinking. Eventually the bloated corpse always rises to the surface unless it's been weighted down with boat anchors or cement overshoes.
500 was my number as well, and hopefully that's all it is.
500 may be the number of failed banks, but the real question is what will be the actual damage to the DIF?
6 billion in one day, not good...
Now up to 7 banks and $7.3 Billion hit to the DIF.
65 banks so far this year. Here's the 2010 list as at 23rd April but has not been updated with the 7 from today. There were 7 last week and 8 the week before. Setting a cracking pace!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932010_bank_failures_in_the_Unit...
Yep, can see dem green shits sproutin everywhere.
The real news here is that $7+ billion in bank failures did not even make the news. I have sent in to various news organizations over the past year, the staggering amounts of money that has been thrown away. It is just not as newsworthy as someone's extra-marital affair or some other nonsense. The real story here is that banks are supposed to be shut down, BEFORE they cost the taxpayers money. The other news story here is that no one has gone to jail.
I was talking to a client (in her late 60's) who is on the board of directors for a small local bank with about 12 branches. I mentioned in passing that of course she was aware of the 7 banks that were shut down in Illinois last Friday. When I paused she didn't say anything so I asked her if she was aware of it. She said she wasn't, that she watches ABC and NBC news each evening and had heard nothing.
If it isn't on the news it didn't happen. 7 banks are closed in one Friday evening in the same state the President was recently a Senator in and it doesn't make the evening news for the next 7 days. Anyone who tells me that the mainstream media isn't working with the powers that be to help conceal and diminish the Ponzi is on drugs or drinking the kool-aid. But of course, there is no conspiracy, is there?
"We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years."
"It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national
auto-determination practiced in past centuries."
-----> David Rockefeller <-----
Date: June 1991 Baden, Germany Source: Bilderberger Meeting, Baden, GermanyThe problem is ... he might be right about world government.
The idea behind taking over a bank is to save the local community (via local deposits) from bankruptcy.
Who says they are going to rescue every community?
They'll save SF and LA. They'll save DC. They'll save every city that is known by its acronym. Will they save Billings? Will they even save Detroit at this point? Nobody will even notice if Detroit depositors die slowly as their banks evaporate out from under them leaving them with nothing in a landscape of nothing.
It's an end-game. New rules. Rule One is decide in advance who is lost.
Cougar, you talk like a military man: First, identify the pawns.
Decide in advance who is lost. I am going to add that to my list of impressive sayings. Thanks Coug.
Determine the other players' objective::> Destabilization leading to Destruction.
Then you can understand the endless ejaculation of "presto" money.
CD add one more to the total. Frontier Bank, WA at a cost to the DIF of 1.37 Billion. Almost 7.3 Billion total for this failure Friday. Amazing, I just don't see us being able to kick the can down the road much further but I am not as smart as Helicopter Ben.
Just saw that. Thanks.
Some crazy Texan threw $500M at PCBC (down $80M for 1Q) or they woulda been #7, or was it 8?
# of banks closed isn't as important as the # they are not reporting...the number of bank branches.
Thanks CD for your reporting on this.
Sheila is one of the least awful actors here. She seems to be closing the worst and most abusive first. Hard to argue with that, but look at the horse she is riding.
The FDIC was flat broke. She got her current 50 billion slush fund by charging banks (the current survivors) three years of "fees" in advance. As CD and others point out, she's going through that like shit through a tin horn.
So what? All the ponzi crowd is on board. The FDIC has unlimited borrowing power, full faith and credit, yadda, yadda, problem solved!
Wrong. Unlike most of this crap, debts of the FDIC don't immediately fall on the taxpayers, they are the problem of the member banks, who "self-insure." Oops. See the problem?
My experience of bankers is that they are pillers of the community, politicly connected, and not all of them are stupid. They must know that it's only a matter of time until the "dentists" come knocking some friday night.
Obama is so slick, so arrogant, so sure he's the smartest guy in the room, but he keeps making enemies, lots of them. Weak point in the ponzi? Time will tell.
look again, it's up to 7. 3 in PR.
Here's the link
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
Hijack all you want. You speak for most of us.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SHq1_K1TePI/AAAAAAAACQE/5CgYXzo1CPw/...
(Wish I was smart enough to imbed this pic, it shows a 'baseline' for bank failures, answering my own question from a different post.)
http://www2.fdic.gov/hsob/index.asp
This page allows you to make your very own report on bank failures. Apparently the S&L crisis? lead to over 500 closings in 1989.
Bank failures can be healthy as they wash bad debt out of the system, allow capital to re-allocate and all that. What sucks is that the monster banks, some of which are in even worse shape, are deemed TBTF and are allowed to endlessly band-aid their crappy balance sheets indefinitely and otherwise get away with murder. I'm sure this administration would rather we just have a handful of mega-banks like European countries do but I'm not cool with that at all.
Who knows what Andy Beal's bank is up to these days? I love that guy.
NO problemo. They can print more of anything to keep the game going. Of course how long until the market realizes the gold bugs may just be right is another story.....
Dont worry. They control the gold too.
Their motto is: To infinity and beyond.
Their solution to the problem is to bring in some new blood with lots of spare cash:
http://www.aolnews.com/nation/article/house-vote-sets-up-possible-puerto...
So that's why they took down the three PR banks tonight for well over $5.3 Billion, to clear the slate from debate about assuming banking problems. We just did, thus rendering that argument moot.
+10
AHAHA. To infinity and beyond. You made my millenium.
Jeeez! This short term maturity game actually started under Clinton/Greenspan to take advantage of a normal yield curve but these clowns have taken it to the max. I sure hope that Turbo Tax Tim and the Egregious Ben Bernanke know what the f**k they're doing.
Know what they are doing? Like in 2007 when they testified that subprime was no big deal?
Agreed. Scares the crap out of me. Who is John Galt? Cheers.
I've been saying "game over" for 6 months. Everyone could see this coming.
You do not have to be dead to be technically extinct, all you need to exhibit is no realistic future. Actually having a pulse is then irrelevant.
Note however that "game over" really just implies "system reset". I'm not entirely certain what a reset looks like. Debt repudiation? Gold standard and PM-as-currency? Sovereign defaults everywhere? Eruption of global warfare?
All of the above?
Yeah. All of the above sounds about right. So what is the timeline now? 4-6 months? 12 on the outside? How much momentum needs to be bled off before this thing nose-dives into a hillside?
Study the russian collapse. Unfortunately there's not enough information about how the various local governments affect it. But my guess is the amount of services that states must offer will be the key to the collapse. My guess is once they all make budgets next month what they have to ask for from the government and central banks will buckle knees.
Ya i am constantly trying to figure out what such a reset will be.Will the IMF come to the rescue with whacked out austerity measures?I think that a wild ride is quite possible along the lines of the Greek rioting etc.
Way too many retired folks in the USA that would not take kindly to having their checks cut in half .
The IMF doesn't have the money to bail out more than a couple countries the size of Greece. It can't bail out Spain or the UK even if it wants to. No entity on the planet could bail out the US. (Well, maybe China if they wanted to lend us all of their reserves. But then how would we pay it back?)
Austerity will come because there won't be any other choice. There won't be money for government programs or services. That's what Greece is dealing with now. Unions can strike all they want, but the govt has no money, and can't borrow at less than 20%, they can't pay the union workers even if they want to. The jig is up.
You really don't understand how the IMF works. It will simply loan itself the money to lend. It's got a printer in every country.
Exactly.
Legit austerity will never happen - in Greece...or anywhere for that matter - until it is literally the only option left.
The question is whether or not it will be "too late" to do anything at that point.
If you were a country small enough to bail, why would you opt for austerity? They won't let you go down, so why not party on John Wayne?
Exactly.
The problem is that it seems that everyone thinks that someone else can "bail them out."
...which is why "legit" austerity won't happen anywhere until it is literally the last option...
...and even then it might not happen.
You think the TeaPotDomeExpress has the sack to take it to the streets in earnest?
I'm pretty sure the Gen Xers, who have been training on CTF and Halo 24/7/365 for years, will make quick work of them.
And wouldn't our structural debt problems with Medicare and SS look better if a few million elderlies gave their lives so that their country could live on?
Come on "Greatest Generation"...show us what you're made of...again.
Greatest generation were 17 in 1945<youngest> , so now 82+. Many perished in the war , they are not a factor. Govt employees , baby boomers and entitlement recipients will be the future burden or ones whose austerity will save the country now. Not the"greatest generation".
Plus, they weren't all that great, anyways. The Boomers are the greedy and the leftist indoctrinees that got us into this mess, they are the ones who have to lose.
The boomers are no more greedy and self interested than anyone else. The real problem here is that there are dangerous power concentrations in the hands of three industries, finance, energy (oil), and military. This concentration of power has allowed tremendous moral hazard to rule. If you are wondering now where your money/job went--look there. If you want to know how to get your power back--spend less money overall, and definitely not with any bank-go with a local credit union--use the least amount of any energy you can--vote for political candidates who boldly run on a platform of ending our military imperialism-->they are out there! There is the problem--there is the solution.
I think once the realization comes, it will happen rather quickly. We're still playing the "Greece is different" game. But once contagion goes from Greece to other PIIGS, it could very quickly spread to UK, to Japan, to US. It could happen at the speed things happened around the Lehman collapse, over a few months, maybe.
Once the markets have to admit the threat of default in a country like the UK, or even Spain, why would rational participants continue to pretend that the US is somehow firewalled off from these debt problems? The realization that the problem can't just be "contained" in Greece or a handful of PIIGS countries, should move around the world quickly.
Anyone think, like I do, that the opening of the Nikkei on Monday will tell us a lot about what's coming down the pipe?
+1
Perhaps. The new fly in the ointment is that now everyone knows that the banks are insolvent. Nothing will be allowed to go down until it is once again made illegal to short anything. This way, only market makers will be allowed to profit from the downside. What this essentially means is that if you are smart, and go short, you are not a patriot. There are still ways to make money on the downside, and I would tell people, but I really do not need anyone crowding my trade.
b-b-b-b-but we're the worlds reserve currency!!!! :P
World's biggest Ponzi.
There is nothing Federal and there are no Reserves at the Privately Owned FED.
Once the markets have to admit the threat of default in a country like the UK, or even Spain, why would rational participants continue to pretend that the US is somehow firewalled off from these debt problems?
Which rational participants are you referring to?
When (if) the vigilantes arrive in the US it will not be a polite little skirmish, it will be totally nuclear. At stake is not a quaint default, like Greece have done many times in the past, they should be used to it.
At stake are the organizing principles of the planet.
Agreed.
Interesting video on Guardian "Capitalism in Crisis" seminar from 2009.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/video/2009/mar/09/capitalism-cri...
He argues current structure of capitalism is defunct and we have not yet invented the replacement. After fall of Berlin Wall and collapse of USSR the rest of the world went strangely giddy, the end of History was announced, and the globe was now a capitalist free-market utopia with no problems which could not be addressed by debt.
Twenty years on and we are in the process of discovering that there was a small error made. We are in for a bumpy ride.
The feds will use the oil spill "emergency" to authorize some kind of money transfers so that the states affected most, like NY, IL, and CA, can get by for a few more months. ;-)
If they manage to squeak through the November elections without a fiscal collapse, the lame-duck Congress will "fix" all the problems -- you watch.
I wouldn't be surprised to see "emergency" nationalization of oil producing infrastructure and/or oil companies.
Look for price controls on gas to follow, then shortages. Nasty, nasty shortages.
Correct, the price was never the problem.
The problem was availability.
Without plentiful gasoline at any price the suburbs become a death trap. And a long time before you run out of fuel, you run out of food.
And it's your suburbia point above where I have to agree with Kuntsler. I see a serious oil / fuel shortage as a death knell to suburbia.
- The Black Swan -
More .308 for the HK?
I would think big cities would be death traps: millions of people in a small confined area with no food or fresh water. Out in the country we have both: rivers, lakes, even wild turkeys roaming around. I bought some pre-packaged food from foodinsurance.com too.
I agree with you. The era of cheap oil has coincided with the urbanization of the world.
My question too - what happens the day after the ATMs don't work. Do you go to work that day, knowing that might be your last tank of gasoline for a while?
I've thought about that, a little FDR bank holiday sort of thing. Remember, they can always print more. Drop money from helicopters if need be.
If a bank holiday is declared, I certainly won't be going into work. Not unless I can arrange to get my paycheck in cash, at least. Preferebly gold or silver, but that probably ain't happening.
You would need to check if you can still pay for gas with cash. If so, go ahead and go, so long as you get paid that way.
Screw "system reset". The problem is the SYSTEM. Define Entropy. If your house is falling down and you "reset"it with straw bricks. what do you have. How about a tear down and rebuild with gold bricks (physical, not military). We have enough fools gold bricks warming there behinds in DC. Let's try the Kentucky type.
A modest proposal: start a Fed Rewards Program for frequent flyers.
all of us over 50 should jump out the window from the 50th floor. One last flight to save the country.
Any volunteers?
Hmmm..
http://www.fohguild.org/forums/attachments/screenshots/138767d1272635484...
From John Taylor's Stanford Website:
http://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl/St%20Louis%20Fed%20May%202010.pdf
Pay particular attention to Figure 9
Bravo nice find, what's more interesting is that the projection is based upon data via CBO
Fig 9 is a projection. Nevertheless, a nice looking hockey stick, or is it a jai alai cesta?
Treasury Redeems A Gargantuan $643 Billion In Treasuries In April, and it is bothering Tiger...he missed the cut.
Much will happen before 2050, so the situation will not progress as a simple Debt to GDP relationship as shown with the smooth curve.
Obviously, the projection is an impossibility, and is just there to illustrate a trend.
The effects on the ability to roll over debt are not linear and depend greatly on the interest paid. The graph also assumes relative stability in asset prices, both equities and real estate.
I guess the question will be asked, once the Treasury cannot pay its bills, how did we get here and what to do next? Its not a hard excersize to go through. If you look at the roll over effects when moving towards the short side of issuance, three months lets say.
So what will happen?
First, what you will see is that the Treasury will be blind sided and will have to delay payments on discretionary outflows. The delay in payments will only be effective for a few months. During this time the FED will be alerted to consider a way to suppliment Tresury buys through QE. Not sure what the reason will be other than Ben saying hey I warned you about fiscal responsibility.
Next, the market for US sovereign debt will drop. The rate of this drop is dependent on what the market support the FED can sustain through its many avenues. What is clear is the amount of leverage needed cannot be hidden. The program would have to be around $1T in total through 2011.
Then, the market will evaporate for sovereign debt. Not just the US, but all sovereign debt (with perhaps a few exceptions, Canada for example). What we will see is a general collapse in trust in this bond market. Investors will realize that sovereign debt is just a different way to say trust in a fiat currency and its level of protection and oversight.
Then, Ben will QE the currency to its knees while the politicians try and understand what is happening. They will talk of austerity measures and getting our house in order, but essentially the damage is done to anybody holding USD. The costs will be imposed, and for the older generation, this means that your SS check just doesn't go as far as it used to.
The decline in this buying power will be tied directly to the ability of the politicians to produce a workable solution. I am afraid that while the politicians try and figure something out, savings will decline in real worth of up to 60% over two years. Call it hidden austerity, thats what QE really is. Either way people will pay.
Mark Beck
nothing like exponential math to slap your ass to attention. It's a projection but...we are the hockey stick generation and we're going to lose more than a couple of teeth. We're also the bell curve kids and the two shapes have a nasty habit of feeding each other. He has some nice suggestions at the end. Now which one of them is being followed?
You other guys are very polite - "...but its a projection..."
I say - stop wasting my time, SP.
There is enough interesting (and scary) _contemporary_ data out there without fantasising over some artwork. Do you actually believe that curve out to 2050? Excuse me while I die laughing.
You said:
'Or we can rape the world until we are smashed back into the iron-age, where we belong.'
Enjoy your misery.
Well put, TD. The roll is the #1 risk to the U.S. and world economy. And that means a very big golf clap for the USG. It's an especially fine showing when you consider the quality of international competition.
HOLY SHITTTTT!!!!!
Has Puerto Rico been given statehood???
Today's Failed Banks (so far) - Cost to DIF
Eurobank, San Juan, PR - $743.9 million
R-G Premier Bank of Puerto Rico, Hato Rey, PR - $1.23 billion
Westernbank Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR - $3.31 billion
--------------------------------------------------------------
Total Cost to DIF = $5.28 BILLION (OUCH!!!)
--------------------------------------------------------------
Make it a Quad!
CF Bancorp, Port Huron, MI - $615.3 million
----------------------------------------------------
Total Cost to DIF = $5.9 BILLION
----------------------------------------------------
Numero Cinco!
Champion Bank, Creve Couer, MO - $52.7 million
----------------------------------------------------
Total Cost to DIF = $6.0 BILLION
----------------------------------------------------
$6 billion is no big deal. That was Hillary's and Nancy's liquor bill last year on their private jets. Sheesh, quit getting excited over nothing.
Yeah. You think they've been holding onto the good stuff for a while.
Trying to soften the blow when even more is tacked on later. Remember; billion is the new million!
Jeezus Harry, you must be Cramer and Krudlow's illegitimate brother.
Try reading beyond the headline number sometime.
We are f*cked and getting f*ckeder, courtesy of Keynesian assholes like you.
You should see this guy do his hospice job. He sits around telling dying patients how great they feel. One of them stabbed him with a dirty needle.
It would appear that HarryWanger's (presumably flaming, antagonistic and absurd) post to which you had replied has been consigned to the memory hole, as I see no such post anywhere in this thread. I guess there IS, after all, some level of moderation here on ZeroHedge, for which I am grateful.
Marla must be back in action...
nice.
The push by the fed has helped manufacturing, along with the demand by consumers that stop paying their mortgage, the top 5-10% income bracket, and the people that have not tightened like they should have because they are being brainwashed by the false optimism being promoted.
However, "It's clear that the recovery in industrial production is in line with prior recoveries. The index tracking real manufacturing and trades sales is lagging the typical recovery, but still expanding even if in a variable way. Personal income before transfer payments continues to weaken. The index declined the last two months and is near its low of September. And while payrolls increased in March, the change in net new jobs added still trails the average recovery by a large degree (and also still trails the “jobless recoveries” of 1991 and 2001)."
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/rsi/buselectioncycles.htm
Please look at these unbiased charts on this web page that show the truth about the "recovery"
Not to mention the largest income tax refunds in history during th 1st quarter, providing some serious spending money. Don't look for that again.
"As the economy expands, debt takes care of itself - Econ 101"
For the past few decades our debt has grown even in the best of economic times. Your Econ 101 class must have been taught by a dipshit.
Nice one, dude. Gave me a good belly laugh.
Well, uh,it sort does.
It doesn't work when you consider the government as part of the economy rather than a parasite draining the economy. Right now, it is the parasite that is growing, not the productive economy.
I suppose you consider the FIRE sector as "productive economy"?
When last seen, the "productive economy" was on a slow boat to...
Of course consumer spending is up, how could it get any worse? They are goosing the economy at the quivalent of 10% GDP, hell even a corpse will twitch if injected with enough adrenaline.
+1
...not to mention any "extra" spending resulting from people not paying their mortgage.
Once again, a warning to you all. Don't be a HarryWanger.
Did you even read the GDP report? Do you have ANY background in reading any of this? Do you really just watch CNBC and then come here and regurgitate the crap they spew? WTF are you talking about?
Consumer Spending? How the hell do you spin that positively? Because the government handed out checks, and the recipients spent it on food and gas, that is supposed to lead to a recovery?
You have to be a government shill. Or, the most ignorant person to ever gain access to the internet.
Epic FAIL. Where did you learn economics, from a FRB pamphlet?
Can't wait for this moment. Should be about a week or two away. Bring your bulltard ass here and own up to this statement. John Borchers/James Kos or whatever freak you are.
Cursive, Harry's a plant and you know that. Pay no attention.
harrys a plant . with shallow roots
probably a rutabaga
whats the average monthly redemptions on Bills going back 5 years ? a bigger picture would help.
I second ... would love to see the trend
Lost in reckoning and machinations the other day, I had this horrible thought: what if they're able to keep it together? What if somehow, through sheer dumb luck and brazen brute force, they're able to keep the numbers rolling and--most pertinently--keep the public in enough of a daze, or in a false euphoria, that we end up in an existence where we learn to adapt to and accept the new economic reality? What if high (or hyper-)inflation merely becomes an accepted way of economic life, and we regularly lop zeroes off the end of our notes? Where we are appeased by allowing us to write off losses due to inflation on our taxes to receive at least some minimal credit? Where investing turns into a game of who can cheat the other guy the fastest and most, i.e. where it's no longer honorable to be honorable? What if this just goes on?
What if?
I look around me today and see how fucking pathetically ignorant most people are and I wonder, how long can they carry on with the ruse? Can they possibly keep this going indefinitely? Sadly, I must conclude that it is possible. At the same time that I want to have hope for humanity, I have nothing but enmity and disgust for the ones that ruin it for the rest of us, which is a small minority, and yet most of us let a few of us get away with it.
Someone shoot me.
I am Chumbawamba.
Them's some good drugs ya got there, Chumba. Roll me a fat one of dat ;-)
Ther is hope I have actually got 3 people in the auditing department i work at to actually start seeing what is going on .Took me 2 friggen years tho so im not encouraged by the average person walking the street to wake up anytime soon .
So sad .
they will wake up, briefly, when the sledge hammer hits them in the head.
In any society more than 70% of people are STUPID, this is a fact.
Didn't you know it ? Just make the ugly truth a little difficult to understand, thats enought to make them believe in all you say.
I've been trying to educate my immediate family and have had some success. My wife is on board, along with some nieces and nephews though they may be just playing along with there crazy uncle lol. I scared the crap out of my sister though and she does not want to talk to me anymore, but that is a good thing. :)
Same thing here, though I've had a positive effect on her two boys, who seem to idolize their crazy, wild-eyed uncle for some reason. The older one is quite the leader at his school, apparently, and is showing fellow teenagers the light, spreading the fiat armegeddon gospel. My sister is getting it, slowly, but she has lead too conventional a life to take the plunge, though she's going through a period right now that will open up the possibility of her taking the Red Pill. I truly hope so, and am encouraging her towards that, because I've always been closest with my sister and her intellectual stagnation is hampering that.
The trick is to let them on to it slowly, like you received it. You can't unload all at once. That's when you get the "OMG he's a crackpot" look. I got that tonight with some newly introduced business associates, but then they seemed like nice guys and I was pressed for time, so I went for the 5 minute crash course.
I hope they follow through. I'd like to continue selling to them ;)
I am Chumbawamba.
I came home last week and gave my wife pepper spray and start reading the list of needed essentials from Agurirre's book. She remarked that she was sure our parents never talked about the issue of surviving an economic collapse. I responded that all they worried about was nuclear war, and as my father stated many times, "I hope the first one lands on my head."
I told her we didn't have their luxury of senarios.
me too. my family thought i was crazy, suggested they put their money into gold and silver bullion in 2008.
my mum laughed at me. now they think that we are coming out of recession and we are on the
way up.
now i just wait for people to ask 'whats going on' and i just explain it at my leisure.
You got that final saturn oppose uranus coming very soon. There's going to be a short union of saturn (government father figures authority punishment) with uranus (fuck you dad fuck conformity objective looks at what is wrong).
Ya. Don't really worry about it too much chumba. We'll double dip but the crash will make 1933 look like a love fest. It's going to be the epitome of Dad i'm dissapoint. America will probably get driven out of 50 military bases by end of the summer.
A short union with saturn might be in order for uranus, but as for mine....
"What if this just goes on?"
The biggest fallacy I see on ZH is people who seem to think the coming fiscal disaster will lead directly into some sort of lawless Mad Max world with people standing over their canned goods and gold bullion with a sawed-off shotgun.
The world ALWAYS goes on. During the Great Depression people didn't turn into cannibals. There wasn't a civil war. The government didn't collapse. Elections were still held. It was a horrible miserable time for a decade, but it went on.
That's what will happen this time too. Things will go on. ZHers who head for their fortress hobby farms to churn their own butter will look like Y2Kers headed for their bunkers at the end of 1999.
I agree, Mad Max is so '80s. But when TSHTF will I still be able to buy M&Ms with a picture of my dog printed on them? A Ralph Lauren shade of rich blueish-turquoise would be nice for the shells, and a smoky beige for the pics. Is that too much to ask in our new austerity?
"But when TSHTF will I still be able to buy M&Ms with a picture of my dog printed on them?"
Ha ha! Indeed. We may even have to go back to non-marble countertops. Just shoot me now!
moved
A very cogent observation Mr Chet. Won't make you popular with apocolypse romantics though.
BTW your avatar is what I was looking for before I found out you had it already. So I settled for a plain blot.
It's a good avatar for these interesting times. I was thinking about changing it soon for variety-sake, then it's all yours.
1) the currency wasn't destroyed in the great depression like it will be in this one. 2) because th currency will be destroyed the government will have no way of funding itself and the welfare state so the welfare junkies will go ape shit when their checks dry up and they have no way of surviving other that looting. So there will lots of violence when this occurs. We didn't have the welfare state in the 30s and vast majority of people farmed and could take care of themselves unlike today.
That reality will make the government ever more aggressive in tax collections and asset seizures, inviting spirited resistance from what's left of the middle classes.
I agree with #2 , however gold confiscation then revaluation from 20 to 35 ?oz is a currency collapse that John Law and Missippi Co. would appreciate.
I agree with #2 , however gold confiscation then revaluation from 20 to 35/oz is a currency collapse that John Law and Mississippi Co. would appreciate.
"The world ALWAYS goes on. During the Great Depression people didn't turn into cannibals."
The world goes on till people tell it to stop.
People used to bury people with a string around their hand tied to a bell so if they weren't really dead they could ring the bell and get out.
I don't hardly call Warren Buffet going ring ring ring out the side of mouth or this flurry of bullshit monthly and quarterly recovery, revision, recovery, revision a bell ringer.
When the states finally layoff a million people. You'll know people are ready to deal with reality.
Interesting. Keep in mind, however:
1) 1930 energy wagon: full to the brim, more coming
2) 1930 world population: ~1 billion
3) 1930 US industrial might: running hot
4) 1930 US civil society: well-ordered and patriotic
5) 1930 global situation: imperialism recently destroyed
6) 1930 natural resources: intact and unthreatened
7) 1930 food production: small, sustainable farms fed the world
Compared to now: Energy crises looming, regional wars are on for energy reserves, world population ~7 billion and exploding, US industries in a coma or outsourced or extinct, society hammered by gangs and drugs, new imperialism rising as resource wars heat up, most natural resources whacked or depleted or gone, most farming mechanized and oil-dependent and growing issue of food insecurity.
Add: border insecurity, global terrorism the norm, US dependence of foreigners for some foods and most fuel, ill-defined but terrifying climate change portents, revitalized piracy along important sea routes, massive loss of democratic principles in most Western "democracies", rise of the corporate state, rise of fringe political movements.
The center is not holding. The center was all we had.
I am not ready to hang myself, but I am not confident this ends well.
Assuming things turn out "OK" with respect to your other six points (i.e., we all don't end up at the local Thunderdome every Saturday night), this is the item that should worry Americans the most...IMHO.
And dont forget about demography.
1930 - young population
Now: 80 mln baby boomers just about to retire
+
1930 - (relatively) homogenous population
Now: 30%+ minorities, some of them assimilated, some others not quite so
nice list cougar. (7) and water scare me the most. back to my garden
I hope you are right but I don't think we are the same people/country that we were in the 30's. Cities are much bigger and if the food/water suppley gets restricted things could get ugly. It would be prudent to have some place to fall back to if the peps get hungry just in case. If things don't get so bad you still would have a nice place in the sticks to spend your off time in quite.
"The government didn't collapse. Elections were still held"
Yes, and look at some of the effects: riots, bread lines, the social security ponzi, the start of the US nanny state, overseas: Mussolini, Franco, Tojo, and our buddy Adolf. France went from world power to world joke, and the sun finally set on British Empire. It cost 50million lives and how many billions to clean up that mess? And now all the major players are nuclear powered, and this time we're bankrupt and de-industrialized. Yeah, nothing to be concerned with now.
France was always a joke
I´m sure the Founding Fathers would disagree
As would the Saxons and the Spanish.
During the Great Depression people didn't turn into cannibals.There wasn't a civil war. The government didn't collapse. Elections were still held. It was a horrible miserable time for a decade, but it went on.
Perhaps not in the US and perhaps not officially during the Great Depression but, need I remind you of what happened during WW II? For a refresher, governments fell, power was stolen, people starved, millions died and many more millions were displaced, and I am pretty sure the Jews might debate you on the whole cannibal issue.
In fact, I am fairly certain that canned goods (plus cigarettes and booze), bullion and precious stones (swallowed to avoid confiscation by the Nazi's.....i know gross but i still wear it with pride) in many instances meant the difference between life in death, a mere 65 years ago, in all of Europe (except for the UK and Ireland).
If you don't think that the current social/political/economic circumstances are conducive to a repeat in some form or another of WW II, that might I respectfully suggest you re-read some history books.
I say this as one who believed that Y2K was always complete bullshit but Europe circa 1945 was all to real, my friend.
Nice response lizzy, the folks presently in this country bear no resemblance to folks in the 30's. We are animals now, drive by shootings, raping of 7 year olds, on and on.Just watch the news. Those drive bys are full auto fire, thats why so many innocents die in their houses
I too knew Y2K would be a nonevent. What we face now , financial and energy crisis, is unmatched in human history.
As far as hobby farms go, even if the shit doesn't hit the fan, there is a good living to be made. Real good. Quality of life can be high too. And the taste of the food and nutritional quality just can't be matched...
Y2K was made up so that when the SHTF everyone would say, "It didn't happen in Y2K!" Smarts....
Good point. From now on its
Y2K+10! Thats when the SHTF...
Chet, completely agree! The Fed will monetize debt, private debt will be defaulted or payed down, wages will fall 10%-20% and life will go on. Opec will still sell us oil since otherwise it has no value. The adjustment will be difficult but in the end the US will survive and to the extent that many other areas of the world are in far worse shape, the US may actually emerge in a relatively better position in the world than it is now.
Your optimism is so cute.
I am Chumbawamba.
Not optimistic just realistic. Is the US in for some wrenching changes and a lower standard of living? Sure. Will the Wall Street/DC cabal consolidate their control of the country? Probably. Will OPEC kiss off 25% of the world oil market because they decide they don't like dollars anymore and are willing to lose the trillions in dollar holdings that they already have? I doubt it. Somehow, I think they, OPEC, will still want to eat and enjoy their current standard of living. They can't do that if there is no one to buy their oil and their current investments go to zero. Since 300 million people in this country are not going to sit around starving to death, the Japanese model of muddling along maintaining current price levels while debt is slowly defaulted and payed off appears, to me anyway, as the only politically feasible route to go. Once all the current excess reserves in money market accounts, pension funds and bank accounts is used, the Fed will probably monetize federal debt. At some point, if that goes on long enough, it will debase the dollar and cause the hyperinflation that you seem to worry about. I just don't see that in the immediate future.
"Opec will still sell us oil since otherwise it has no value."
say what??
and chumba, your response was cuter
Until China revalues the yuan and prices 'us' out.
I suppose the tiny global conflict that began only years after the worst part of the great depression was a completely isolated event and had nothing to do whatsoever with the economics of the time. Life didn't go on. Trade between countries ceased because no one could trust the other's money. Trade barriers were erected and groups of people were scapegoated and murdered.
The FDR Administration was concerned about all the things you mentioned (except cannibalism, i think we're safe on that one). They were concerned Huey Long would lead some sort of populist uprising from the south. They used public works programs to manipulate elections. They cartelized nearly every industry in the country.
The ZHers who see a Mad Max future are the ones with hope. They're the ones who see this fascade of government control finally evaporating as a lie the population tells itself. But I agree with you -- the world will go on. And generally that means when the government really fucks up, they'll begin murdering, confiscating property, and silencing dissent.
Sadly, your daydream might become reality. If only we could all be HarryWangers.
You can! Just mix some rogain with your KY, pretend to have bought any stock last week that went up this week, and voila, you're Harry Wanger!
No, it won't be business as usual. There's always chaos to change
the outcome. The question is, will it be good or bad?
I've been thinking along the same lines for a few weeks and it's not hard to imagine at all. Given the choice between drowning today or living in terrible conditions for months, 99.9% will take the terrible conditions. Major changes will be required but consider the conditions a battered spouse lives under for years. I've actually been thinking about writing an article about this idea and have given it some serious thought. It's not outlandish once you think it through.