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Treasury Refunding Statement Released: $32/$24/$16 Billion In 3/10/30 Years, $72 Billion Total, Puts Rand Paul On Collision Course With Debt Ceiling
The Treasury has announced $72 billion in coupons to hit the Primary Dealers POMO churn accounts, just as expected. The breakdown is as follows:
- November 8: $32 Billion in 3 Years (link)
- November 9: $24 Billion in 10 Years (link)
- November 10: $16 Billion in 30 Years (link)
Here is Goldman's take, which apparently is surprised by the end of the decline in shorter-term issuance:
1. The specifics of the quarterly refunding package contained one modest surprise—no further reduction in the 3-year note (relative to last month’s auction). In its statement, the Treasury also indicated that they will pause for at least a quarter in what has been a six-month program of reductions in nominal coupon auctions. Specifically, the agency said that “coupon auction sizes are likely to remain steady over the coming quarter,” i.e., until the next refunding announcement in early February. This is consistent with a higher-than-(we) expected borrowing requirement for the first quarter and with the extraordinary uncertainty that hangs over the near-term fiscal outlook as the new Congress determines what to do about scheduled tax cut expirations and other programs (though the Treasury makes no reference to those particular motivations).
2. The Treasury also moved to a monthly program of TIPS auctions along the lines we have long advocated. Beginning in January 2011, the Treasury will auction fresh 5-year notes in April and reopen them twice, in August and December. It will follow a similar schedule for 30-year bonds, with a fresh security in February and reopenings in June and October. These changes complement an every-other-month cycle of two 10-year notes (new ones in January and July, with reopening two and four months thereafter). All TIPS auctions will be held on the Thursday immediately preceding the end-of-month (nominal) coupon auctions.
Now what is interesting is that while the rate of coupon (and bill) issuance will certainly not decline, we now know that even according to the UST, it will in fact accelerate, and hit $700 billion net over the next 5 months. And as we calculated a few days ago, this means that the US Debt ceiling of $14.3 trillion will be breached. Which puts such Tea Partiers as Rand Paul in a sensitive position. In fact, last night as MSNBC highlighted, at the next debt ceiling raise vote, Paul may be able to filibuster the vote (something MSNBC seems to disapprove of, and a vote that had no problems passing last time it was cast in late 2009) which will result in essentially what is a default of the US. Of course, it is much easier to simply do away with the debt ceiling travesty altogether as even the CBO has confirmed that the US will need to raise at least $10 trillion in debt over the next decade. So why continue pretending America no longer live Primary Dealer sticksave auction to auction?
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How many FRN's on whether he will be co-opted?
That NBC host is a class-A Wall St shill.
Lawrence O'Donnell does have more economic savvy than most of the talking heads. Can you hear the potential interrupters just itching to say their piece -- usually stupid pieces.
Part of O'Donnell's resume:
Peter Schiff critiqued him on his radio show on Nov 3rd, call him a clown. Couple minutes after the 1 hour mark http://www.schiffradio.com/programhighlights;jsessionid=4406A009C4EDD5AE...
Ok. Some folks call Schiff a clown, but that's the way it goes. And I never said that O'Donnell wasn't a clown! Maybe that red bulb nose is a giveaway?
What a clown show.
Olbermann, Matthews and O'Donnell specifically stated these kinds of gems last night shortly after Paul's acceptance speech.
" We now have an extremist who can filibuster and shut down our government"
" Rand Paul can cause a global depression of the debt ceiling is not raised giving us anarchy"
So their platform is pretty clear. They simply believe we can literally spend for all time because we are America and all and the magic money tree for the first time in history will work in our backyard. Who needs limitations? Eventually it wil not matter if the ceiling is abolished since the required debt in coming years eventually will not have appetite. When China and Japan no longer playball Ben knows were in a fix.
Japan and China have already stopped playing ball. Thus the need PD's to take down larger shares of auctions and for the Fed to monetize all the debt.
The big question left is: will they dump their current treasury holdings if the dollar falls below a certain price? If they do, rates jump and it is game over.
Republican, Change You can believe in!
Austerity Bitches! Conservative Wonderland!!
If you dont have Food, Medicine and the like now is the time... Gridlock will slow down response times... thusly things will get worse before better. But let me be clear http://www.opensecrets.org/ will better describe who owns which whore outright within the Beltway.
while I'm sympathetic to those who see "out of control" debt, this is a simple matter of mathematics.
The credit system MUST grow. Very few understand what this means and how the mechanics of debtmoney work.
There's a thread over on TF where even Douchinger can't seem to "get it." There is no mathematical way out of this compounding problem. The USG will continue to borrow and the credit base will grow.
The debt ceiling will be raised or else there will be deflationary collapse in money supply. The mechanics of debtmoney make that inevitable. THIS IS WHAT Jefferson was talking about.
Then Olbermann, Matthews, and O'Donnell and the entire rest of the MSNBC crew are as STUPID as SHIT.
You need SIXTY VOTES to cloture a filibuster. ONE MAN, without the support of at least 40 other Senators, CANNOT block a bill!
GFD, am I the ONLY ONE who wasn't high during civics class in highschool? They fucking PAY these people to run their mouths on this channel?
Why assume that they believe it? The object of the exercise is to extract the maximum political embarrassment for Paul and the congressional Republicans from the debt-ceiling vote, no matter what Paul can do or will do. If Paul attempts a filibuster, and is clotured: Boehner Cracks Down on Tea Party; Growing Republican Divisions. If he doesn't: Republicans Surrender on Deficit.
Of course, the assertion that Rand Paul is in honour bound to filibuster the very next roof-raising is pretty unconvincing too. He may be a huge deficit-hawk, but unless he really is the cartoon figure that O'Donnell claims he is, I don't see how it follows that he's morally obliged to single-handedly arrest the deficit in the most abrupt and dangerous way possible. Letting the ceiling go up again is exeptionally embarrassing for him politically, but that's not the same thing.
All nicely co-ordinated: son-of-JournoList in action, I presume. You have to somewhat admire it: it's a carefully-crafted political sliming. First, it paints the Tea Party in the most frightful colours, and defines the GOP by those awful Tea Party radicals. It also puts Rand Paul in a cleft fork: every time he fails to fulfil the dire predictions about what the crazed ideologue Paul might do next, the media story will cry that Republican firebrand Paul has abandoned his principles and/or been brought to heel by the Republican establishment. Which in turn will support either the story that a jaded, cynical GOP is back to business as usual, or the story that Obama's Clinton-style new moderation has outflanked the GOP and restored sanity to US politics.
Bankrupt is bankrupt- doesn't matter if it's now or later- it's gonna happpen.
MSNBC thinking is that we're not bankrupt as long as we have checks.
Bankrupt is bankrupt- doesn't matter if it's now or later- it's gonna happpen.
Yep. And better sooner than later. The later it is, the more painful it is since the debts defaulted on are greater. Also defaulting sooner allows for us to start the recovery process sooner.
(Edit: Actually I don't believe bankruptcy is written in stone - but if it is going to happen - better sooner than later.)
These asshats will go under kicking and screaming. Should be quite a show in March.
Yeah, so we can start the fractional reserve lending and compound interest machine again quicker? Sooner is not necessarily better.
What at issue is our failure to realize our collective stupidity... for those of us who can admit to our own shortcomings, we'll be waiting until the cows come home for others to do the same.
How can these idiots never consider cutting spending as a viable option? And how can they not realize that if the only option to avoid global M.A.E.D. is perpetually increasing exponential debt, then something must be wrong?
Ohhh, the same reason they pussyfooted on the tax cuts, they want to destroy the U.S. so they can rebuild it in their Federalist^100(globalist) vision. Set all the dominoes in place during their reign of stupidity, fire up the Tesla oscillator just as they're leaving office, and blame it all on the other half of their team when it crashes.
Boy, I sure hope someone has been busy behind the scenes crafting a plan and placing all the pieces to save us when the country officially goes broke.
Considering that M.A.E.D is for the little people, its no surprise that the elite would dangle cake in front of the masses.
Just hope that GLADOS goes no bid and flash crashes on them.
Cutting spending? like $1.1 Billion a month in un-employment benefits or the $700 Billion in TARP? like not extending the 99 week issue for Indiana... but ramming home QE1, QE2 and to infinity and beyond?
Austerity is going to create a hungry angry mob! Hope you got some bullets to go with all that gold!
$700 Billion in TARP
Go back and study, since you apparently have no clue about TARP.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/bankinforeg/tarpinfo.htm
he thinks that the banks swapping TARP with FDIC- or Treasury-guaranteed loans means they "paid it back."
But GMAC did pay it back along with everyone else... what do you mean Travis? just becuase they borrowed from the FED window @ .0001% interest to pay it back... it still is a technical... I cant continue I am laughing to, too hard..
Hows life for you Travis? I hope well!
My best to you and yours as always, JW
P.S. Maybe we can start The Banc of ZeroHedge (offshore) and get bailed out, to then borrow to pay it back... to then force a FDIC sale after Me, You and Tyler get our bonus monies? hows that for for a game plan? "O" come on everyone else is doing it why not us?
Debt service, Defense, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security. Anything below those are peanuts. Let them go right ahead and cut to their heart's content.
If even Rand Paul capitulates, it is truly over.
That's the whole point of the scheme... heads they win, tails we lose... whether we get deflation or inflation doesn't matter... end is the same.
The capitulation will not be on the money side. Rather, people like Rand will be far better suited to spend the remainder of our days (time is short) gutting the ability of the government to fuck us during the transition and, further, protecting the non 1% from the tyranny that may ensue. While the constitution/laws may get thrown to the wind post collapse, they'll also mark a starting point for when we rebuild... best to change that starting point now while we still can.
I suspect curb stomping the changes to health care will be a good start... a warm-up if you will for the main course (patriot act, et al). One of the best things that could be done also, with our limited time, is to sift through all the noise and get a direct line with the american people and explain, in great detail, some of the pitfalls we face and how to avoid them (false flag/shoe bombers/package bombs/etc.).
There is a lot of talk of reform of entitlement programs... but Rand, like all others, will fall flat on his face. Simply put, there is no equitable solution because the thief (the government) took the money and is now insolvent and there is no alternative insurance. The only thing left is punishment for the perpeTRAITORS.
Even if he has good intentions, Rand Paul will not do anything to affect the course set by the oligarchs. He has served his function of bolstering the illusion of choice. This special presentation of "We The People Run Things, Right?" is over, as of last night, and we're back to our regularly and completely controlled programming here on the Fooling Most of the People Most of the Time network.
I think it was CNBS I was watching that had a politician yesterday discussing the "2 year cycles" whereby we get mad and elect the other party... if that's true, and this is indeed a long term phenomenon (which it is), then how many trials do we need before we accept/acknowledge/understand that the political structure has been captured and the political process is meaningless?
Wake me up when the wellfare/unemployment checks stop, then it will get a little more interesting.
Paul can filibuster all he fkin wants...if his own party supports cloture, it's over.
WTF, do you guys think a filibuster means the end of the bill? All they need is 60 votes to cloture the debate. Rand Paul is one man who will not receive his party's support on such a filibuster
100$ against Rand Paul living long enough to cast 1 decisive vote
minus alot
That's tasteless....you're on.
No way the PTB create a martyr. He'll be thrown a few bones (e.g. to avoid filibusters), but largely be powerless, is my guess.
Can't wait to see what earmarks Rand Paul attaches to bills.
I like Rand (he comes from good, sound family stock) but the proof is in the pudding.
End the Fed and all problems solved! End the debt based money system for goodness sake!
Should Sen. Paul capitulate on the debt ceiling I will finally stop paying my Federal Income taxes (still trying to figure out how to stop paying for Medicare and SS) as I will finally know the Federal government pony show is over and we can all go home.
timing the market is a bitch.
HAHAHAHAHAAAAA. So true.
It is the duty of congress to control the spending ... if not why are they representing all of us. Just have the Fed and Treasury run it all in to the ground by themselves.
The President sends Congress a Budget... in almost all.. save 2 years in your Countires history Congress has grown the Presidents Budget... Congress is who is getting alot! of lobby money! http://www.opensecrets.org/
Wake Up! http://www.cbo.gov/aboutcbo/budgetprocess.cfm
What the President submits is more of a budget recommendation. It lays out his priorities and the needed funds for federal agencies. It lacks so much information, the nation couldn't be run on what the President submits in February.
WAKE UP!
Isn't obvious that Congress doesn't represent us? They represent those with the biggest wallets, on either side of the aisle.
I believe our democracy is at stake. Raising the debt ceiling is not an option. Cut the friggin spending somewhere. MSNBC can bitch all they want. There is not one guy on there that I'd have balance my check book.
"I believe our Republic is at stake." There... fixed.
Our government is supposed to be a republic, no matter how much they try and tell you it is a democracy.
I didn't junk you BTW.
Throw another log on the deficit fire...Freddie Mac loses another $4.1 Billion.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39985741
Before we watch these bastards on the debt ceiling, keep an eye on what they try to do with the FinReg bill. Read an article last week that Boner has already been given money by the big banks. They want to change the Volker rule, and derivatives. Said something about giving more power to the Fed to oversee the banks.
Oh goody!
This is the next thing that anybody who is fiscally conservative needs to focus on. Phone calls, emails, and personal visits day and night to EVERY member of the Rep party to ensure Boehner does NOT become Speaker(pick Paul Ryan or someone else), and that Ron Paul becomes Chairman of the Financial Services Committee. Anything less is more of the same.
the people... are angry about the other people...
The middle blames the poor... that is sooooo fucking funny...
20% un-employment costs $2 Billion a month...
$700 Billion in TARP funds pays for 29 Years of 20% un-employment benefits...
$2b divided by $700b ='s 350 months of benefits...
Now add in QE1, QE2 to infinity and beyond... but it is the middle mad at the poor... fucking idiots.
So their trying to throw Rand under the bus... just blame it on bush, everyone else does. ;)
Structured Debt Products ='s Regean...
Bush (Daddy) Started the http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=19102 Cranston Gonzales Act rolling...
Bush (kiddie, coke head fuck up... draft dodging, idiot) rammed home alot behind Cranston Gonzales... all thos 50 to 1 leveraged dollars where back stoped by a program a FED program... that was cut short by 2 years... thusly the dominos start falling over. If you dont know this stuff, never mind... Kiddie Pool , with or without water wings is ----------> that way!
it was sarcasm. Hence the ;)
Considering I subscribe to your emails and blog... I was wondering whats up? sorry! great emails and blog though!
Rand Paul and Tea Party Friends: Same As The Old Boss. Give it time.
The monies flow like a river... into the beltway! no one... is going to ignore it... maybe 2% can with stand the temptation... and what is 2% of the Vote going to to for any of us?
You Betcha!
Brian Williams on MSNBC last night got in the first dig at Rand Paul (and Mitch McConnell). "There are 22,000 federal government jobs in Kentucky (and Brian mentioned the naval yards in San Deigo as well). Yeah, let's see what kind of fiscal conservative Rand Paul is and how fast he starts reducing the 22,000 federal government jobs in Kentucky."
My guess is the people of Kentucky know what they're getting themselves into, and are willing to sacrifice some of the 22,000 Federal jobs in order to help the rest of the 2,100,000 total workers long-term.
Doubt they thought that far ahead. Too much kool-aid drinking got in the way.
I junked you and the Heroic moron.
We do know what we're getting into with Paul.
I voted for him, and I hope he does gut those federal jobs as well as any other federal ties he can. Fuck the FED and the Federal government. The fewer of their intrusions into our lives the better. They should exist for national security ONLY. And not this war on terror, troops all over the globe bullshit--just DEFENSE.
And yes, before you start throwing up straw men and toss out some lame ass anti-teabagger rhetoric that you've been spoon fed, I don't give a fuck if they do stop social security and medicare. I'm 31, and know neither will be there later anyway.
I come from a working class family, and I personally don't have shit in savings to brag about. But we know big government is bullshit, and as a family we have a broad range of skills.
We will take care of our own, and of others who need our help when the time comes if they aren't completely selfish brain dead jersey shore ass hats.
I come from a working class family, and I personally don't have shit in savings to brag about. But we know big government is bullshit, and as a family we have a broad range of skills.
My complements, very well said. This is what it will take, hope we have it in us to see it thru because there are some serious and powerful forces aligning against us. We can prevail in the end if we stay true to our convictions.
sschu
Are you the other brother Darrell?
Appreciate your comment. I had no nice, clear candidates to vote for so I cast most of mine for the Green Party as a way of saying "none of the above".
Kentuckians voted for Bush, McCain, and McConnell, so they get plenty of info from Rush. Those 22,000 jobs, gee, what category are they in would be the next question.
Kentucky has at least three small military bases. The Bluegrass Army Depot that stores nerve gas, sarin and other. The Sierra Club has been on them for 30 years. If Paul and McConnell try to eliminate military bases (Fort Knox and Fort Campbell), they'll be laughingstock and cave-ins the the environmentalists. VA Medical Center is another no-no. Plus given Kentucky's massive unemployment and food stamp use, you need to wonder how many patients Rand Paul has seen who one on both, and how much reimbursement he's collected.
TSA? sure, Louisville and Lexington both have airports, but reducing TSA and Homeland Security won't put a dent in 22,000 federal government jobs.
The idea of requiring corporations to locate 46% of their manufacturing staff in the US if they sell in the US. Sure, that'll pit Rand Paul against the Walton and Walmart group. Good luck with that. Toyota in Georgetown, Kentucky is probably a nonissue becuase they've already frozen hiring.
The rest of Kentucky has massive unemployment, except for coal mining and mountain top removal, which Paul and McConnell aren't going to touch. And as Alan Greenspan chirped, "health sciences" are the only jobs left in the US; if Kentuckians were going to flock into health care, well, you can check for yourself how well that has worked in the past 10 years.
I suspect that those 22000 people didn't vote for Rand to begin with so he won't lose their votes.
The Squid wins. Q.E.D.
I went back and looked at this situation.
In 2007, pre stimulus and pre TARP, US spending on just DoD, Medicare and Soc Sec, added to 1.something Trillion dollars.
2009's tax revenue, the last year for which we have information, was 100 billion dollars LESS than the 2007 expenditures of JUST THOSE THREE ITEMS.
So if we cut those three 2-3% to get to 2009 tax revenue levels, we would, with no debt increase, have no FDA, no FAA, no Customs and Immigration, no Federal Courts, no Natioinal Institute of Health research grants, blah blah, not even counting all the things we might not like.
So the tea partiers will face as their first vote a need to raise the debt ceiling.
And for their second vote . . . all those GOP governors are taking control of states in which the 2010 deficit was papered over and pushed into next year . . . so they will be desperate for Federal aid -- in other words the tea partiers 2nd vote will be to bail out GOP states.
How very . . . sad.
That's what the system creates, accountability for the next guy... (not you).
I just wish we could actually get someone with enough balls to man up and give a state of the unionesque speech that tells the american public how fucked we are and how drastic of cuts are going to be necessary. We don't want to hear it, but I think we're finally ready to hear it. (of course, austerity is part of the PTB's plan too... don't want to get paid back with monopoly money).
The next big boot out will be of the idiots we just elected to implement repudiation of our debts and a middle finger to our international creditors... all in due time.
A legislator who self-imposes a term limit could do that. But, hey, that's not your average politician who is looking for a lifetime job.
It's inherent in the self-nomination process for politicians... in essence only people who think they know better than everyone else (and thus, can impose restrictions on everyone else) are drawn to the job... every once and a while, you get a whacko... but, by and large, it's inherent in the process.
I seriously am ready for jury dutyesque political office... we randomly pick X amount of people, ask them questions, weed out the worst few, and call it a day. Hell, we could even do it american idol style... to pick X, press *retard on your phone.
I'm not sure term limits do anything other than create inefficiency for office holders... focusing too much on learning the ropes than the substance of their job. Probably a good idea, but in the scheme of important things, I'd say it was probably lower than a lot of other things... campaign contributions being a glaring example. Why run for office if you're only going to make the official "salary"?
We can't even get them to self-impose less hookers/cocaine... we're fucked if we think we can get them to self-impose any fruitful restrictions...
I'm especially impressed with the way they voted themselves a COLA increase and told the old folks NO WAY. Assholes.
Bonds are soaring.
The Fed is not going to be "abolished"....
They are doing the job of crushing interest rates again, which is what Wall St. wants.
Election over. Then the "now what?" moment dawns on them. Boehner said the tax cuts will stay.
Debt ceiling hit by March 2011.
Boehner took time in his victory speech to declare "the President sets the agenda" not Congress.
The Republicans haven't even taken power yet, and already they are ducking responsibility. Good job, America!!!
lol at rand and ron, theyve lost all credibility.
i'm sure rand'll figure out a way to ship more cash to izzy.
way to go ron!
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/04/22/rand-paul-and-israel
Tea Party: Gays, God, Guns! What is Rand Paul talking about? What does the Tea Party really stands for?
Jaw-dropping idiocy here on ZH today. All of you who favor Rand Paul or any other nutjob bringing down the United States of America need to think again about the "then what?" part of the equation.
All that gold you are hoarding, thinking it will make you a kingmaker when the ball drops, becomes a liability the instant the mob with the guns knows you have it.
The question isn't whether you have enough gold, or ammo, food and water. The question is who is watching your back, and if Rand Paul brings the anarchy you so desire the final answer is nothing and nobody has your back - and then there's guys like me, with more firepower than you could possibly imagine. We win, you lose. Be careful what you wish for.
Team America if I only had a nickel for every time I have said those words and gotten Junked.
Jungle Love Bitches!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtyOMtuacMI
Close air support from an A-10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Iz5MwPsfyo
Close air support from an Apache http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmoghK44jdI
How about a Hellfire? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYeYlXfzGew
Now I have some nice guns but if the FED brings home the Marines to use against "We the People" we will be fucked.
Rand may or may not want to whatever but there is no mathematical way to cut the debt ceiling.
Do you people GET or not that this debt is an exponential growth construct? It will grow and it MUST grow.
The only way for the federal debt to not grow is robust private sector credit growth. That is not happening. So either the interest drag on the money supply begins to consume it in deflation or else the government grows credit itself.
I continually marvel at how surprised people are by something that, if you took it out of the realm of reality and just made it a thought problem, would or should be EASILY explicable and comprehensible.
We are facing a system that NEEDS to grow. Debt=money, ok? That is our system.
The only way off the roller coaster is to abolish debtmoney, declare jubilee, and renormalize to whatever real production will support in terms of trade.
In the meantime, stop ballyhooing about the deficit or debt when the money system makes these NECESSARY.
Perhaps I am assuming too much of the readership here, Downing Effect or something. It's clear from seeing a similar thread on TF where someone appears to have cribbed my writing on this topic cannot get anyone on that forum to get it either. Morons like Douchinger still think that some bankruptcies here and there will permit him to continue to profit from rentier vulturehood and "trading."
There is a SYSTEMIC FLAW, ok?
I agree... but as well what about our $60bbl oil... that should be $300bbl? and how the transportation costs for our peaceful world filled with trade obligations are all a lie? we can not grow with energy that we dont have to use... or that really costs 300% more than we are paying for it.
Rand "Kabuki" Paul is yet another RepubliKeynesian fraud. He'll vote for deficit tax cuts and do nothing more than prattle about the debt ceiling as hit TP RepubliKeynesians colleagues who control the House vote in more debt and take "personal responsibiliy" for thei ractions by blaming the Democrats.
Also, they'll keep ObamaCare (after all, they created Medicare Part D) but they just won't pay for it.
Oh, unless of course the DemoKeynesian sock puppets have already been instructed to raise the debt ceiling in the lame duck session, so as not to interfere with Kabuki Paul's performance.
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