This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Treasury Sees $194 Billion Drop In Borrowing Needs Due To SFP Program Roll Off, Over Half A Trillion In Financing Needs For Jan-Mar Quarter

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Today, the Treasury issued its revised merkatble borrowing estimate. And while the last time the Treasury issued this forecast, it had expected a $431 billion need of marketable borrowing financings (while expecting a $454 billion total Financing need), this number has now plunged by $194 billion to $243 billion. But don't be fooled that this is due to an expectation that treasury revenues are suddenly going to pick up. Oh no. In fact, total Financing Needs have increased by $49 billion to $503 billion for one quarter! The only reason why the marketable borrowing estimate has plunged is due to the roll off of the SFP program, which will bring down EOQ cash from a previous estimate of $270 billion to $65 billion, a $205 billion decline in cash. In other words, the Treasury now sees adding $237 billion in marketable debt to the total December 31 debt which means that the US will be close to breaching the debt ceiling by the end of March even with the SFP program roll off. What is amusing is that the Treasury now expects financing needs in Q2 to plunge from $503 billion to $258 billion, which in turn will need $299 billion in marketable debt to be issued over the April-June time period. We are willing to write naked CDS, and sell the TVIX against this number being revised by at least 20% at the next forecast revision, some time in late April.

Table summarizing this adjustment:

Full press release:

Washington, D.C. -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of net marketable borrowing for the January – March 2011 and the April – June 2011 quarters:

    * During the January – March 2011 quarter, Treasury expects to issue $237 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $65 billion, which includes $5 billion for the Supplementary Financing Program (SFP). This borrowing estimate is $194 billion lower than announced in November 2010. The decrease in borrowing relates primarily to a lower SFP balance.
    * During the April – June 2011 quarter, Treasury expects to issue $299 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $95 billion, which includes $5 billion for the SFP.

During the October – December 2010 quarter, Treasury issued $363 billion in net marketable debt, and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $343 billion, of which $200 billion was attributable to the SFP. In November 2010, Treasury estimated $362 billion in net marketable borrowing and assumed an end-of-December cash balance of $300 billion, which included an SFP balance of $200 billion. The higher cash balance resulted primarily from lower outlays.

Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 9:00 a.m. on Wednesday, February 2, 2011.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:22 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

From Peter to Paul.  Just reshuffling the deck of 1's and 0's.

Nothing to see here.  Go buy an iFad.

 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 17:37 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

and don't forget to buy the fucking iDip!

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:26 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bernanke, Geithner & Obama can solve all our problems through refining the math and re-scheduling dates and deadlines.

Tomorrow's headline, reported by the bubble-headed bleach blondes, is what matters.

This is a Goebbels Economy, bitches.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:51 | Link to Comment Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Accounting banking on VERY low refi rates on rollovers and short maturities.  They don't have to forecast based on today's rates or eventual extensions.  Make their own rules.  

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:27 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

So, they're bragging about a drop, but there's really an increase?

It's sick, my head is spinning. But keep it coming Tyler.

Good news, for many, the Health Care bill was just found to be unconstitutional in Federal District court in Florida by the 26 state's suit. Said the mandate was no good, so the whole thing was no good. On to the Supremes.

 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Tear the MF'er down!

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 17:21 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

George Orwell would be proud.

Surely we are smart enough to come up with a newspeak word for this.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 22:00 | Link to Comment mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

How about "Sundown"?

"Sometimes I think it's a sin, when I feel like I'm winning when I'm losing again..."

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:29 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Timing is everything.  Timmy has to coordinate with the networks and cable to get distractions for the debt ceiling vote, with possible cover from the CIA.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:28 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Merkatble, +1

BAHAHAHA!

Even if that was on accident.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:35 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

When asked what he likes about Treasuries, George W. Bush replied, "They're Merkatble." 

When asked to explain the quote, he said laughingly, "Merkatble, you can do what you want with them."

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:45 | Link to Comment Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

Merkatble = whatever you can sell to Germany?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:51 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Merk to Merkatble.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 17:23 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Madness.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:32 | Link to Comment lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

TD. I must be doing fuzzy math. I have us breaching 14.3 by Feb 28. Where did I go wrong? I usually get the math questions to log in on the 2nd or third try...

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:43 | Link to Comment pton09
pton09's picture

1)  Consider debt "subject to the limit" and not total debt

 

I think they also delayed some auctions. 

But yes, have no fear.  The actual debt is growing faster than ever and the politicians won't even slow the RATE of debt growth much less actually reduce the debt.

 

We will end the year with over 16 trillion in debt. 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:49 | Link to Comment SayTabserb
SayTabserb's picture

The brillig debt clock has today's debt at about $14.075.  So $225 billion to go? Obviously this is what the SFP roll-off is all about - buying time.  Jeethner's forecast definitely takes the debt over the limit by March 31.  Let the posturing begin!

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:32 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

sounds like turbo tim forgot to download an update for his tax software....or he was applying the same math he used on his tax returns....

fuck geithner's goddamned lies.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Anyone remember the congressman from about two years ago who was adamant that debt IS wealth? Such is the mindset of our lawmakers.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:50 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

And, of course, "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter," as financial genius Dick Cheney put it so elegantly.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 22:46 | Link to Comment Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Maybe Cheney was repeating what Robert Rubin said many times in '95 and '96. Is Rubin your kind of financial genius, as opposed to the other kind represented by Cheney?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 22:07 | Link to Comment mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

I can't say I remember that, but I keep hearing this guy on the radio hawking his "transforming debt into wealth" program.  I think we should order it.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment baddress
baddress's picture

QUESTION:

Why does today's silver chart look exactly like Friday's silver chart? All the same moves in all the same places just $1 higher...

http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts.html

I don't understand it??

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:38 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

During the January - March 2011 quarter, Treasury expects to issue $237 billion in net marketable debt...

net marketable debt?
net marketable debt?

and what is the percentage for the Tattaglia family?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:38 | Link to Comment RheologyMan
RheologyMan's picture

Supreme Stupidity is now classified as an "asset" on the FED BALANCE SHEET? 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:40 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

They adjust it lower before they revise higher. The BLS does this all the time with UE #'s Pretty standard shit here. Same magic trick different venue.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:40 | Link to Comment SayTabserb
SayTabserb's picture

These are obviously PR moves in an effort to position Treasury in a favorable light when the Big Ceiling Debate starts in earnest over the next couple of months.  See, we're getting things under control! No need to turn off the spigot now!  None of this matters, the CBO has already cast the die - $1.5 trillion deficit, so divide it into whatever quarters you want, there is going to be a pantload of borrowing all year along, and with Congress shooting itself in the leg with the FICA reduction, it will be much worse than ever. How is there really supposed to be a reduction in "outlays" with Social Security's funding now worse than ever? Smoke and mirrors. Remember, those solons in DC are not nearly as smart on average as your typical ZH reader. Doesn't take much to fool them.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:46 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

It's easy to "fool" those who want to be "fooled" (wink, wink, nudge, nudge).

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:51 | Link to Comment SayTabserb
SayTabserb's picture

Well yeah, there's that too. Who had the idea of having Congress work on commission? They get paid based on a percentage of how far under budget they bring the country in over the last year.  Was that Iacocca?

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:59 | Link to Comment lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Ah yes, forgot that brilliant move- the SS reduction. Pissing in an ocean of debt.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:50 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Benny uses the exclusive iFED with apps of iTim who uses the exclusive app of iLIE.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:52 | Link to Comment SayTabserb
SayTabserb's picture

That made me iLOL.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Technichel
Technichel's picture

Obamacare ruled Unconstitutional !!!!!!!

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 17:07 | Link to Comment What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

The US government needs an ADDITIONAL $500,000,000,000.00+ in loans just to fund 1 quarter?

This is truly insanity.  Yet, it must get worse before it ever has a chance of possibly being better.

$500,000,000,000 <--99% of the US population doesn't even know/care.

That's roughly 376 million troy ounces of gold

That's over 10000 metric tons of gold needed FOR ONE QUARTER

I seriously hope I screwed up the math badly.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 17:07 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

This is good. Dow up 68. Repeat.. This is good

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 17:35 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

Lovely eod ramp job.  Really impressive...I think they're just showing off and having fun now cause it's all at their fingertips.  And so blatant, so in your face.  No need to be sly or try for deception.  Just plunk the markets higher on command ala IBM and likely many more as needed to fire the algo's and HFT's. 

No longer a market - only a political tool now of a fascist government (corporate / elite and government interests / actions hand in hand).  Maybe it always was and I simply didn't understand but seem noticeably different since March of '09.  Seems that is when whatever passive involvement PPT or whatever had in markets became very active. 

Funny to read or hear people still speaking of fundamentals or valuations.  It is what they say it is...and so it is.

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 21:08 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

I know that. The longer they could keep it up, The more my sarcasm level will grow

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 17:58 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Treasury's a bit like watching Hells Kitchen 

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 18:52 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Good grief! I keep pinching myself, because I think I'm living a nightmare! We're creating a black hole of debt with no end in sight!

Mon, 01/31/2011 - 19:09 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Stocks are rising because the economy is improving at a break neck pace.

Surely, it's only logical to see a tripling of Amazon and a 1000% rise in many of the shittiest companies, with the most debt, on the indexes, in a 22 month period, under these very solid economic underpinnings, no?

And it's not too late to buy now, anyways, even if one wasn't special enough to be apprised of The Bernank's bailout, buyout, and ball-busting money printing scheme ahead of the time it was announced, right?

It's not like stocks aren't still very cheap, that there's any geopolitical crisis(crises), or that the economy isn't still in the ICU, still very sickly and weak.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!