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Treasury Unemployment Benefit Outlays Surge To All Time High
Even as the BLS and DOL would like us to believe that the unemployment picture is getting better, we present a chart comparing the initial and continued claims as presented by the Dept. of Labor and compare these to actual government outlays. Even as the two combined series have been declining (offset by increasing much discussed EUCs), the most recent Unemployment Insurance Benefit outlay reported by the Treasury (as of March 30 - there is still one more day of data for March), just hit an all time record high of $15.4 billion.What this means is that in March the average paycheck from Uncle Sam for sitting dong nothing, surged to an all time high of $1,447/month.
Fair enough, the spike may be due to a surge in EUCs one may say. Well, here is a chart of the reported EUCs added to the disclosed Initial and Continued claims:
Indeed, even the worst case reported picture of America's jobless seems to have plataued in the upper 10 million range, after hitting a record of 11.1 million in late January.
So what happens when one divides the total population collecting benefits (I.C.+C.C.+EUC) by the actual UST outlays? We get a very curious chart:
It appears that in March either the government decided to payout an additional roughly 20% per unemployment paycheck, or once again, there is a shadow population of beneficiaries, which are not caught in any of the standard cohorts. Keep in mind that the average monthly paycheck has traditionally been indicated as being about $1,000.
What are we missing here?
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"What are we missing here?"
Tyler, clearly you missed your morning meds. Please report to Marla immediately for your double dose of Zoloft and Percocet. How have your pain levels been lately? I told you to lay off pounding the keyboard for a few weeks. You know what that does to your BP. Be a good boy and lie down and rest.
4/1/10 10:38. Mr. Withers: That's right, it was I who fudged the BLS numbers. And I would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren't for you meddling kids (and your ability to do division)
Holy crap! This is that mysterious "dark matter" they built a collider to find.
Could it be that the guys and gals at Treasury have the same problem with numbers that there boss does?
Nothing at every turn these stats for the govt are making less and less sense.
Shit a tungsten nugget....where do I apply?!?
Almost a golden goose... just have it coated and sell it to the gold bugs.
March has been bonus season for quite some time....why should the unemployed get short-changed?
The question for me is: What do you do in the face of the big lie?
Make sure it is dark and she is drunk?
The game changed dramatically when USG created the supplemental benefits that provide up to 73 weeks of extended coverage, the infamous EUC. Undeterred, the stock market pumpers have continued to focus on the totally irrelevant NFP number. There's a reason their clientèle are known in the industry as "bulltards".
You know this shit just keeps falling apart at the seams and the PTB are scrambling to cover it up. Everywhere I go there is less and less activity. I even over heard vendors at a gun show I was at last weekend complaining about the lack of sales. The ministry of propaganda is running at full steam!
Good. At least it makes me feel a bit better realizing all these pumpfest clowns are running around trying to stuff 100 holes with 10 fingers and toes all day! I dont believe they have much time left at all, theyre running an illusion that everyone can clearly see through, no one is buying their pumps its just juggling clown show really.
So let the Plunge Projection Team fire up A/H futures pumps based upon the govt hiring temp workers for 2 months, no ones buying the crap so let them play!
Also heard the same thing at a big gun show here Saturday, no one was buying much of anything and hardly anyone there. Everyones tapped out.
Wow. Excellent reporting.
The answer is quite clear to me, money DOES grow on trees!
And what did my grandmother who went thru the depression know, telling me money isnt easy to come by, doesnt grow on trees...why couldnt I have had BERNANKY'S gramma?
Damn, short changed again!
Funny thing, but for real....my grandma, who lived through the depression, said that the last CD she had exprire, she wasnt rolling over, she was taking the cash out...
"I've seen this before", she said, "if I am wrong, its not like I am going to make anything on the CD anyway"...
Everyone you forget that the government has the right to make up any numbers they like, instruct TBTF banks to cook the books and not allow the media to report otherwise all in the name of national security.
If you don't get it by now please report to the nearest re-education camp comrade!
Gimp yes, any numbers from Gubmint or Wall St can be cooked to show whatever they like, executive ordered as A-OK in declaration of national state of emergency since 2001 to today. Its hard for people to realize everything they see is nothing but a lie.
Its all fake, and the only unknown is when they take it all down again. My guess is- after the debt sausage has been stuffed into 401K's and pension funds, then its game over.
Its all done in the national interest. They just want everybody to feel good about the country, and feel secure about the stability of the banking system. Even if people can't pay their mortgage, or can't find work, at least they can be happy that the country's on the mend and things are always getting better.
"Its all done in the national interest."
They have even admitted as much, sort of like rubbing your face in the shit. Yet when I show this article to friends, family and clients, nearly all say I must be mistaken. They would rather believe their tormentors aren't really tormenting them than to accept what they see. They are in effect saying their can't believe their lying eyes. Denial is the strongest and most predictable human emotion bar none.
Now, the White House's top spymaster can cite national security to exempt businesses from reporting requirements.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/may2006/nf20060523_2210.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily
"AUTHORITY GRANTED. William McLucas, the Securities & Exchange Commission's former enforcement chief, suggested that the ability to conceal financial information in the name of national security could lead some companies "to play fast and loose with their numbers." McLucas, a partner at the law firm Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale & Dorr in Washington, added: "It could be that you have a bunch of books and records out there that no one knows about."
Do you think that perhaps, just maybe, possibly Madoff received a waiver?
"Do you think that perhaps, just maybe, possibly Madoff received a waiver?"
I think Madoff was a much deeper "event" than simply a waiver. I suspect Madoff was allowed to exist for well over a decade in return for laundering money for various black ops programs and agencies, foreign and domestic. And I shall go no further than that with my comment.
The unemployment numbers are a farce. People are living off of unemployment insurance and savings as was noted yesterday. The only difference between now and 1932 is this unfunded safetynet of unemployment insurance and welfare programs. The economy is being propped up by monopoly money being printed by Helicopter Ben. Otherwise, you would see souplines and hobos and tent cities.
Well we already have the tent cities, but youre right the new 'soup line' now is at home with food stamp credit cards. Now the throngs of unemployed bankrupt poor get to act 'high fallutin' with their 3 carts of junk food that YOU pay for, and act like theyre swiping their own credit card at the check out to boot!
Deception nation, yet that wont stop civil unrest from coming to a street near you real soon.
Just an observation from my trip to Raleigh on Monday. LOTS of USMC trucks (convoy) headed south. Interestingly, we saw about 10 military Humvees driving around in a nearby residental development. I've been in SE North Carolina for 5 years, and although Camp Lajeune is nearby, I've never seen so many military vehicles on Route 40.
http://www.hyperhistory.com/online_n2/connections_n2/great_depression.html
Does it really matter? - According to Cramer I am supposed to ignore the fundamentals and academics because it goes against what the market says and does . As long as company is traded on wall street the price of the stock can only go up .
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36116224?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo
$1447/month huh? So it is better to be unemployed than go work at local WMT making $8/hour?
I'm not sure but I think unemployment pay is somewhat related to what you made before becoming unemployed. So if you lose a 60k a year job, you may get $1447/mo (I assume there's a really low cap) but if you lose an $8/hr job you would get less.
I'm just guessing based on what I've heard though, not having any personal experience with the system. And it varies by state.
Well this may be the explanation to Tylers data of the average check going up. Maybe this means that the unemployment bug is hitting higher paid workers now? How about it Tyler? What about that thesis? Is there any data to be had about the people drawing unemployment and what they were making?
For some people it is MUCH more profitable to sit home on unemployment than to try and work a minimum wage job or whatever it is.
For a limited time anyway.
The big questions what is the unemployed masses going to do when the benefits FINALLY stop.
Did you factor in benefits like Cobra?
$1,500/month for doing nothing. Where do I sign up? I've got my surfboard, beer, broads (sorry wife)......ready to rip!!!
in nj its a max of 637 week last I checked including at the time the oboma exra 50 bucks when nj unemployment rate was over 10%.. but then again the we have the highest property taxes in the country,
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