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Trichet's Turnaround

RobotTrader's picture




 

Just as it appeared that the wheels were about to come off, stocks, euro, gold, and oil were all u-turned late in the day.  No doubt, somebody spotted Trichet heading into a massage parlor, providing traders with a heads up that a possible intervention was in order.  It is the same trick that Fukui at the BOJ used to pull at the most inopportune time for short sellers.

 

Note the dramatic fakeout breakouts, subsequent plunge, then another nipple bottom reversal.  You can see these all over the place.  Especially anything that is derivatives infested like an insurance company.

 

Something was fishy this afternoon when tech stocks were green most of the day, lead by a 5% move in BRCM:

And don't forget the Vampire Squid:

 

Needless to say, late shorts will be a tad nervous over the weekend.

 

 

 

 

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Fri, 02/05/2010 - 17:19 | 219721 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

LOL, the Convulsions are only allowed to last mere hours...
Rasputin - Fri, Feb 5, 2010 - 04:14 PM

...as opposed to the days or weeks they previously were tolerated by TPTB.

As I posted earlier this morning, here:

http://wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=65791&post=222369

Dow 10k is the absolute, undisputed "Line of Death in the Sand" that would be defended at all costs by the PPT.

And lo-and-behold if that isn't EXACTLY where we finished today.

Yesterday too, BOTH times reversing utter meltdowns.

Time to abandon any technical analysis.

We are in a purely psy-ops market now.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:55 | 219872 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Quantitative Sleazing 2.0

Brilliant and comical. True to form, thanks Robo!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:22 | 219918 jakeman
jakeman's picture

Brilliant stuff, Robo. Something fishy, indeed.

One thing I haven't heard anybody point out about Trichet is that it's a homonym for the French word "tricher," to cheat. Got shitty grades in Francais, but that stuck in my head for some reason....

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 17:20 | 219728 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Let the bankers have their fun this weekend.  SPX has a late-winter date with 980.  The table has been set.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 17:27 | 219750 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

down 5, up 6. FAS. i need one of those designer neck braces.

http://images.popsugar.com/uploads7/thumb-brookeburns.jpg

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:22 | 219802 RobotTrader
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Whoa!!!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:23 | 219803 loup garou
loup garou's picture

It was entirely a technical reversal (bounce), and it was hardly surprising.

Very ST-Oversold, to the 3rd Standard Deviation
200DEMA = 1043.9
.382 FibRT (1150.45-869.32) = 1043
Angle Symmetry @ 1042.86
10% correction = 1035.4

Many (short-term) traders have been anticipating the 1040-1046 zone, which included these and all other longer-term EMA’s. This is Trading101.

Will it continue?  Maybe, but I doubt it. It’s just a little too “pat”…

Next downside levels: 1010 (.50) , and 977 (.618)

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:32 | 219820 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Yup, hardly surprising, I get it. There's nothing TA traders can't predict AFTER the market closes. It's all there in the goat entrails as plain as day.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:32 | 220049 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Hey, I predicted gold would break 1080 for WEEKS before it happened with TA.  I hope you believed me, homey!

You damn sure know I was saying it.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:43 | 220055 taraxias
taraxias's picture

You are nothing but comic relief on here. As for your homey remark, look in the freaking mirror. I've exposed you for the fraud you are, next time I'll kiss you first.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 03:53 | 220260 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I'm the guy who makes money, while you buy your gold from Rosland financial.

You're so stupid if you think you exposed me by catching one of my typos.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:33 | 220435 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Keep Master Bating, it might be the only thing you are good at asshole

BTW, you left out the word "coffee" in between the words "makes" and "money" in your post

Unemployed bean counter CLOWN

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 23:56 | 220154 loup garou
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From January 29th, one week ago:  “The Next Key Market Reversal Zone

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/stocks/commentary/the-next-key-market-reve...

However, the key buying zone is 1046-1040 which includes the key longer term EMA's, in addition to the .382RT at 1043.06 and another angle at 1042.86.

 

One week ago is hardly “after the bell”.

If you would take a break from babbling and spend the time necessary to learn how to trade the markets from successful professionals, you just might be able to throw away your crying towel, loser. That is, if you are capable of learning.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:31 | 219807 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture
Could it be that today's US jobs report is finally signalling a turnaround in the economy? After all, the strong pickup in temporary employment bodes well for future job gains. As far as the stock market, there is still abundant liquidity out there, so keep buying them dips. There is simply no reason to panick and succumb to the noise coming out of Europe.

These solars came back strong on Friday:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=csiq,jaso,ldk,tsl,wfr,yge  

Most active gainers:

NYSE

Nasdaq

Amex

Most active decliners:

NYSE

Nasdaq

Amex

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:34 | 219827 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Leo, someone ought to pinch you mate so you can wake up from your deep trance. Buy the dips, Leo, buy the dips.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:46 | 219830 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

taraxias,

We are heading much higher in stocks and some sectors will go into a full blown asset bubble. It's not if but when...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:14 | 219976 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

I'm looking at a 6 month chart of SPY and something happened on January 22. The uptrend was broken. The price action since then has confirmed it.

The market doesn't reward loyalty.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:45 | 220344 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Bounce off the 50-day m.a. or 200-day m.a., that's all you have to worry about. But don't put your stops too tight because it can easily overshoot these "scientific" technical levels.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:03 | 220018 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

One could very well make the argument that we're in a full blown asset bubble. Banks are carrying many billions of assets on their books at full value that are worth 50 cents on the dollar. I have clients all over the U.S. in numerous sectors. None of them are hiring. It's one thing to believe stocks are heading higher, perhaps much higher, but it is a question of IF, not when. Also, what's "much" higher? 1200 S&P? 1500 S&P? 2000 S&P? Values already look stretched. Are value buyers going to step in at the prices? Retail investors? From what I've seen with my own two eyes, they're tapped, fully invested, or scared. I don't see people itching to get in. Plus, I don't understand how you can downplay the situation in Europe as "noise", not given the fiscal mess of states and cities in the U.S., let alone commercial real estate. It was released today the consumer credit declined further: people are not expanding their debt, they're shrinking it. All of this is bearish for the economy. Doesn't necessarily mean the stock market is headed down, but the economy is still very much buried in crap.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:36 | 220053 ghostfaceinvestah
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Exactly.  For every delinquent mortgage in a banks portfolio, they magically think half will cure, since that is the historical cure rate.  Does anyone really believe 50% of underwater unemployed delinquent mortgage holders are going to all of a sudden catch up from being 18 months behind on their payments?

So as an example, 1B of delinquent loans at a 50% cure rate and 50% severity only require a 250m reserve, with the hope being that by the time it becomes obvious the real loss will be 500m, the bank will have earned their way out of it.

In the meantime, they sure as hell aren't gonna lend out that 250m they haven't yet booked.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:43 | 220057 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Lucky for the banks that all the HELOCs are good and can justifiably be carried at par, even though the borrower has stopped paying the original mortgage and is using the "proceeds" for food and this weekend's new 54" LED Full HDTV (plus some beer and pizza).

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 22:03 | 220077 deadhead
deadhead's picture

ghost...i think i have seen where the current cure rate is single digits but I cannot cite a source....denninger had something on this a while back as well.

anyways, you're absolutely correct i.e. there is no way the cure is anywhere near 50% nowadays, particularly given underwater conditions. 

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 11:34 | 220394 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Denninger did make a post about this. Cure rate is at about 5%. Historically it was at 50%, and that was when delinquencies were less than 2% AND since home prices weren't in a bubble the house would very likely sell in liquidation close to what was owed on it. People weren't walking away from homes back then; if a foreclosure occurred, it was likely for a good reason. Now is a completely different animal. Instead of delinquencies at 2% (and I think this may be overstated historically) they just hit 10%. That doesn't include the 3.2% already in foreclosure, which is itself a staggering number. In total, it's over 7 million mortgages behind on payments. And rising. Yet somehow we're through this crisis and the recession is over? I'd love it if it were true, but we're not even at the halfway point yet. Way too much bad debt out there that's being ignored.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:41 | 220339 reading
reading's picture

I have a good one for you....someone we know owns 35 rental properties in the midwest.  All purchased with standard, fixed investment property loans (most before the limits on number of mortgages per borrower.)  Many (most) are horribly underwater, but the investor has continued paying.  He finally decided he was walking away from one of the properties as rental prices plummeted to.  He stopped paying.  BofA called and said, hey you didn't make your payment.  He said, yes I know I am not paying on it anymore.  The guy said what do you mean? Why don't you try to sell it?  The borrower said, it's just not worth it to even try I would get so little for it as its been underwater for such a long time.  The BofA guy said, "Really?  What kind of damage has the home suffered being underwater like that?  Was their a flood?"

 

Yes, it is true...and we wonder how we got here!

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:17 | 220329 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

+1 stock market is not reflecting reality and has not for a long time. Leo can be 100% right for that reason.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:46 | 220058 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Yeah, I know Leo, you've had your scalp handed to you since January 20 bit you're still signing the same song. I suppose on a long enough timeline we'll all be dead some day. It's not a question of if, it's a question of when. 

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:51 | 220346 Leo Kolivakis
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taraxias, I have been buying since Jan 20th, and will continue to buy if this market goes lower. Unlike traders, who never average down, I do accumulate in stocks or sectors where I see incredible potential run-ups. I am not a rookie, nor do I care to hear "trader talk". Been with the best traders in the world and if I was only trading to survive, I'd probably would be scalping this market too. But that's not my approach right now.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:41 | 219832 john_connor
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lmao

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:42 | 219840 Leo Kolivakis
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Yeah, all of you can laugh at me, but we'll see who gets the last laugh!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:16 | 219973 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Go back to eating your boogers, Leonard.  Just don't touch us with those fingers. 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:44 | 219844 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

if you keep spouting this nonsense... by the end of the year you will be hanging from a cross. treeofwoe.jpg

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:29 | 220332 crosey
crosey's picture

AI, I want to see a larger picture of your avatar!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:48 | 219850 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

WTF, I can't edit my first comment to fix a typo...NO REASON TO PANIC!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:54 | 219861 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

LOL, the flaggers are pissed because the stock market came back strong today. Poor shorts, they're a miserable bunch of human beings.

Enjoy your weekend, I know I will. Hoping the Saints will eek out a victory!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:34 | 220050 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

The Saints?  No way!  Blargh!!!!

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 00:03 | 220159 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Dear Leo.

Thank you for your ongoing good mood. I smoke the evil weed to get that way and would love to know where you get your .....(placebo)

I can only speak for my little corner on the w. coast. Tourism is minute, restaurants are closing and the temp labor office closed a year ago.

I averaged one house per 2 weeks  working as a sub for the same general 12 years. All our clientele was settled money, not the young strugglers. Now my average is one house per year! Had to find a new market. Savings are getting depleted waiting for the recovery.

Housing created more jobs than most realize. Trust in the future and trust in the system allowed us to borrow into the future. That trust is gone. I and others have bought silver and food to prepare  for the unknown and uncertain future.

The east coast and where the lobbyist live in the bedrooms of the politicians sure their economy is better. The rest of the country is sucking wind.

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:55 | 219953 KevinB
KevinB's picture

Geez, Leo, one too many Molson's?

That gain in temp jobs was mostly attributed to hiring for the US census. How does this bode well for future employment?

Why don't you listen to fellow Canadian David Rosenberg? I quote:

Taking a big picture viewpoint, the U.S. labour market remains fundamentally weak. Despite the clarion calls for recovery from the legions of Wall Street economists and strategists, the reality is that labour market gaps remain very wide; here we are more than two years after the recession officially started and the ranks of the long-term unemployed continue to swell. The average duration of unemployment rose to a record 30.2 weeks from 29.1 weeks in December; and for the first time ever, we have more than 6.3 million Americans (up from 6.1 million in December) who have been looking for a job with no luck for at least six months. That is an unprecedented 41.2% share of the pool of unemployment.

Some green shoots ya got there, baby!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:32 | 219996 walküre
walküre's picture

It doesn't matter one iota what the US labour market does now or ever again.

The economy is booming elsewhere and those US corporations with growing markets are participating. These corporations trade their stocks in NYC - for now.

The sad reality is that the US consumer and the US domestic economy matter less and less.

The world is buying more Coca Cola, more Big Macs and more I-this and I-that than ever. Subsequently these companies and their stocks are going to do well.

It's a global economy. The fact that 20% of Americans don't have reporting jobs, matters little when more Chinese and more Indians are entering middle class status.

Not everyone is suffering from the downturn.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 22:48 | 220120 KevinB
KevinB's picture

What excellent reading comprehension you display. Leo said the increase in temporary jobs presaged an increase in permanent ones, and I called him on it. I didn't make a peep about the stock market. 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 23:12 | 220132 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You do realise that those 20% w/o jobs here will want some jobs at some point w/o which the burgeoning middle class in China & India will have to be deprived of that up and coming status.(I'm Indian and not too optimistic that this trend will last far too long-I do have a lot of faith in the Indian rupee and its RBI)

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:01 | 219958 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Take a look at a 3mo chart of all those pos in leo's solars. OUCH!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 22:39 | 220109 dark pools of soros
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for solar to breakout, the gov'ment will have to do something drastic like front you 80% of install and have them trickle back any extra cash from the excess energy you pump back into the grid...say over a 10 year period or whatever

 

it would get scammed to hell and back but that is the only way people are going to do anything real with solar

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:53 | 220347 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Take a longer term look, at one year charts and then look at the max charts. There is huge potential in this sector, and yes, it's gut puking volatile, but no guts, no glory. :)

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:27 | 219808 walküre
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What should we expect if ECB announces they will prop up the Club Med nations indefinitely?

DOW up 600 points by next Friday?

Gold leading the way - again?

Don't fight the Fed was so 2009. Don't fight the ECB is 2010!!!

Even when the BOE says they will stop QE. She will still reign / joke.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:45 | 219848 Uncle Fester
Uncle Fester's picture

I swear I saw Trichet upstairs with Cousin It...but that's no alibi

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:57 | 219881 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

I sold SDS, TWM, EEV, and ZSL into the first dip. Missed the second bigger dip, but, of course, better off than holding into the close.

Shorts had to cover going into the close, given the market was oversold, and, something positive could come out of the G7.

Nothing has changed regarding bankrupt countries and fake government stats and our hyper-liquid depression. Let the market work off its over sold state and short it again.

The Euro is defintely due for a massive snap back, which, should take stocks and commodities with it.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:08 | 219966 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

From shorty over at Cap Stool.

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 22:41 | 220114 dark pools of soros
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made me happy since i was catching a falling knife CEF until this rocket jump saved me a margin call....

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 01:45 | 220202 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

LOL. Being able to trade after hours without anyone able to argue with you is a hellava thing.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:25 | 219989 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

Was nothing more then shorts covering their positions late in the day. Traders don't like holding positions over the weekend. It wasn't buyers pushing the market back up, but shorts covering.  You all should know this by now.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 22:16 | 220087 pros
pros's picture

Very nice,

Robot Trader

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 22:40 | 220110 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

remeber all those firdays back in FEB and in Mar when the s&p will form that strange shape the last half hour from shorts covering their behind before sombody announce something and they get screwd over the weekend. But GS double crossed them on that and started the ramp up on a Tuesday. Perfectly logical since Pandit the Bandit couldn't have found out that his bank has actually been profitable and send that to his staff. Now has the "supposed"letter been leaked on monday,people would have thought "umm, I guess the guy can read a crystal ball". At any rate,out of all the banx,his is the only one to stay in the dungeon ,despite all the services that he rendered to the big guys through entrapping the idiot fund managers who fell for their preffered conversion plan,which coincidently took place just before the biggest ramp up in history.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 22:42 | 220116 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

We're heading much lower in stocks...some sectors, especially those highly-leveraged, consumer (credit!) -dependent and debt-dependent sectors of CRE, residential RE, financials, and retailing will outperform in this regard!

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 00:04 | 220161 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Me think the end of the day rally was simply a technical bounce on the hourly e-mini chart.

http://blog.rebeltraders.net/2010/02/05/market-holds-on-a-technical-bounce/

While it does look like a few reversal candles scattered about, I feel any upward advances will be sold into once again. IMO

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 00:31 | 220173 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Leo,

 

Many years go I had the pleasure of spending an extended period in Athens.  One evening, out on the town with Greek friends, an argument developed between two of them.  Apparently it was---at that time---the quintessential Greek argument:  was Starvros Niarchos or Aristotle Onassis a better businessman?

The argument became rather heated---alcohol was involved---but at one climactic moment one of the men turned toward me, and said in English, "For every two Greeks there are three opinions".

Given that Greek is your ethnic heritage, it seems to me you're short at least one half of an opinion.  Good luck to you that your one view turns out correct.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:07 | 220323 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

Chindit, sounds like a life well-lived.

Orde would be proud of you.

I hope you have the time to write your story one day, I'd read it.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:50 | 220345 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

It was oversold so it needs a bounce. But the trend remains DOWN.

 

The DOW/SP500 downtrend commenced as forecast and the USD rally I forecast several months ago is just getting going.
The recent equities counter trend rally has finished and the March 2009 bear market rally is over. The dollar, crude oil and copper charts have been giving bearish warnings for stocks for months. My indicators can identify trend changes before they occur.They warned me of an impending market crash back in early *2007* The uptrend since March 2009 has been a bear market rally contained within a much larger bear cycle that started in 2000.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:56 | 220348 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Robo, do keep us informed, when Trichet turns around, will he get a happy ending? LOL!

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