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Trifecta Of Bad Data: Initial Claims Bad (New York Layoffs Surge), PPI Ugly, Retail Sales Miss
While last month's upward revised 478K number was not repeated, just released initial claims still continued at the NFP busting 434K, worse than consensus of 430K. At this level of initial ciams, the economy is losing about 50K jobs per month. According to the release, the primary factor was New York State, which saw a surge in Initial Claims of +24,431, due to "Layoffs in the transportation and service industries." Continuing claims were just as bad, at 3,756K on expectations of 3,700K, with the previous number revised, how else but, higher to 3,751K. And just as notably, the 99 week cliff impairs eve more people, as a total of 17K people dropped off EUC and Extended Benefits. Elsewhere, PPI came higher than expected, with April PPI data at 0.8% on expectations of 0.6%, up from 0.7% before, confirming that delayed downstream inflation effects will plague the economy for a long time.
Some observations from the Crude, Intermediate and Finished goods:
Crude energy: The index for crude energy materials moved up 4.8 percent in April. From January to April, crude energy prices advanced 5.3 percent compared with a 17.9-percent jump in the previous 3-month period. For the month of April, the index for natural gas rose 9.4 percent, accounting for over half of the increase in prices for crude energy materials. Advances in the indexes for crude petroleum and coal also contributed to higher crude energy prices. (See table 2.)
Crude foods: Prices for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs advanced 4.0 percent in April. For the 3 months ending in April, the index for crude foods jumped 11.4 percent subsequent to moving up 5.5 percent from October to January. Accounting for about half of the monthly rise in April, the grains index increased 15.5 percent. Higher prices for slaughter steers and heifers also were a factor in the advance in the crude foods index.
Crude core: The index for crude nonfood materials less energy rose 2.6 percent in April. From January to April, crude core prices moved up 2.5 percent after a 10.1-percent advance in the previous 3-month period. For the month of April, a 4.5-percent increase in the index for copper base scrap was a factor in higher crude core prices.
Intermediate core: Prices for intermediate goods less foods and energy moved up 1.1 percent in April, the ninth consecutive monthly rise. About fifteen percent of the April gain can be attributed to the index for primary basic organic chemicals, which increased 3.2 percent. Higher prices for ethanol and steel mill products also contributed to the advance in intermediate core prices. (See table 2.)
Intermediate energy: The index for intermediate energy goods climbed 1.9 percent in April, the smallest advance since a 1.5-percent increase in November 2010. Prices for diesel fuel, which moved up 3.5 percent, were a significant contributor to the April rise. Higher prices for gasoline also were a factor in the increase in the intermediate energy goods index.
Intermediate foods: The intermediate foods and feeds index advanced 1.8 percent in April, the ninth straight monthly increase. A 5.6-percent jump in prices for beef and veal accounted for a quarter of the April advance in the intermediate foods and feeds index.
Finished energy: Prices for finished energy goods increased 2.5 percent in April, the seventh consecutive monthly advance. Over half of the April rise can be attributed to the gasoline index, which climbed 3.6 percent. Higher prices for liquefied petroleum gas and residential natural gas also were factors in the increase in the finished energy goods index. (See table 2.)
Finished core: The index for finished goods less foods and energy moved up 0.3 percent in April, the fifth straight monthly rise. Nearly one-fourth of the April monthly advance can be traced to a 1.2-percent jump in civilian aircraft prices. An increase in the index for light motor trucks also contributed significantly to the rise in finished core prices.
Finished foods: Prices for finished consumer foods rose 0.3 percent in April after falling 0.2 percent in the prior month. Leading this advance, the index for eggs for fresh use surged 56.7 percent.
Concluding the trifecta of bad data was advance retail sales, which came at 0.5%, below expectations of 0.6%, with the previous revised much higher from 0.4% to 0.9%. And retail sales ex the volatiles autos and gas was up a token 0.2%, compared to expectations of 0.5%, down from a revised 0.7%.
Luckily, today's transitory theme of Deflation ON will more than allow the Fed to beat the dollar and spike commodities from a new and improved level, which will make the transition to QE3, or however it is called, that more palatable.
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So why is the Dow north of 12K...?
Sounds like the E-mini S&P needs a margin hike. Oh wait..........
That's very dangerous thinking.
Please report immediately to the Office of Propaganda and Public Enlightenment.
Herr Obama is waiting for you.
only to find out that it's actually Comrade Biden runnin the show.
Biden? Hah.
Neither of those clowns can possibly be important. Obama doesn't seem interested, and Biden is a moron. The last administration it was easy to tell who was in charge, but these guys are tough to gauge. Maybe there's a space-alien in the west wing somewhere issuing marching orders.
Bingo! - His name is George Soros!
That will probably happen some day soon and it will be ugly.
Ugly for us pawns. Goldman and JPMorgue will get tipped off and will short the market. They'll make $Billions and we go broke.
Cynical view or just a realistic based on recent events?
Realisitc based on recent events.
This pinball machine is tilted in favor of the big banks, you and I get robbed blind... in paper. If they want my silver and gold, they'll have to take it FROM MY COLD DEAD HANDS
I don't know. I'm looking at the primary dealer take-down of the commodity complex with some interest. Assuming that the primary trend is still up for oil, silver, etc., the recent shenanigans might provide a good buy-in point for small fry like us. If oil drops below $60 or silver below $30, I'll probably buy back in (I've given up on UNG).
Off-topic: Watch Becky struggle to stay positive...
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000021606
Becky "What made the people wake up and realise that this EU problem isn't going to go away"
Answer - the fact that it's not going away.
Speaking of haircuts - when is Becky going to get one? Bad form, very bad form to go on TV with so much wild hair - I mean you're not Donald Trump!
You really like 'Coiffed Becky' better than 'Whorey Becky'? Oh c'mon.
Ha, interesting discussion. More Banks are TBTF mentality. To wit: German banks hold the Greece, Portugal etc bonds. So they can't let them default on the bonds or Germany becomes unstable. I missed the Econ 101 lecture where they tell you that banks are RISK-FREE investors.
Becky sucking major lemons as she suggests "suddenly, people realised that Europe wasn't going away"
http://img705.imageshack.us/i/hotlc.png/
[Video cap of the moment she says it]
POMO
Will this be a POMO day at 11 sold to PDs at 12 again?
Planetary alignment:
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/05/major-planetary-alignment-t...
Note Harmonic Convergence at '87 top and 5/5/2000 Grand Alignment at Dot.com top.
The better question is when does one get out their dow 10k hats.....again?
July or August, just before Ben hits the Print button again.
i hope we get to break out the dow 10,000 hats
not for long brother!!!
Hmmm. Could it have anything to do with $8 Billion per day of risk-free cash? That bought a lot of stock. And when the program ends, as we saw last year, the market simlpy slides and slides
"Luckily, today's transitory theme of Deflation ON will more than allow the Fed to beat the dollar and spike commodities from a new and improved level, which will make the transition to QE3, or however it is called, that more palatable."
Dammit - who leaked the plan? Somebody must have talked!
Let's just not forget tomorrow is Friday the 13th.
These guys are so evil that they may play another practical joke with peoples money. Just Like the S&P 666.
Look out gang.
and...KABOOM! Who would've thought that Dajjall honors pagan holidays?!?!
and the aussies too
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-12/australian-employment-unexpecte...
"Unexpected"
Of course.
if the war on commodities continues it will be expected next time
no where to hide aust? brazil? canada? hong kong?
Iceland
Last week, the reason for the high IUC was "spring break layoffs" in NY. Seems like Spring Break has been extended...
Clearly, Herr Hunter, you missed the latest directive from the high command on memory holes. Try to do besser next time.
why no articles about silver crash in last 2 days ??
correction for the smart people who have been holding long term. crash for the johnny come lately
Wouldn't surprise me to see margin hikes on at least 5 more commodties today.
Infinite Fiat rules, paper can control inflation with ease, especially when you are an expert at manipulation like Ben Bernanke.
Fiat cannot suppress fiat debasement in the long term you fucking troll.
Go suck on Bernak's balls cocksucker.
Robo pretends to scorn 'the Pigmen', but secretly dreams of being one himself. You'll never be Bernank Robo, give it up.
We must feel sorry for Robo. Retail sales got trashed today. That was Robo's band wagon pump yesterday.
Robo is calling for the greatest retail boom ever known.
"Here's some quality stock tips for ya.... Circuit City, Montgomery Ward, Gimbel's, all consumer discretionaries are going to go up like a rocket! This economic recovery, featuring declining real earnings for 99% of the American population, 20%+ un/underemployment, and grinding despair is a recipe for DOW 55,000, bitchez!" - RoboTrader
Time to upgrade your avatar's gas price signs again.
Good point... I figure that a $5 one would be good. BTW these are for K-1 kerosene, aka heating fuel, aka the stuff without which my home area would be a much less pleasant place to live for 9 months out of the year. It's much harder to turn down the thermostat to 49 deg. versus going to The Mall less frequently...
Now, hold on. All RoboTrader said was that TPTB would continue to use margin hikes on commodities, which in my opinion is likely. Now, whether they can reverse a primary trend (commodities going up) is dubious but manipulations over the near-term is something they are good at.
If he is such an expert, how did the world come within seconds of ending in 2008?
Balls to the walls...fighting the fed.
Printing money controls inflation? That makes sense.
Printing money and burying it in the money center banks works..., until it doesn't.
I gladly pay you today for the garbage paper I will ignore until Wednesday, at which point I will pay you again, then enjoy a black truffle hamburger on Thursday.
"Infinite Fiat rules, paper can control inflation with ease, especially when you are an expert at manipulation like Ben Bernanke."
You don't get out and drive around much do you?
Ah yeah, its got a colourful history. 100% failure. Especially with Genghis Khan and China about 1,000 years ago. Too bad the Bernank has been caught out not knowing history before the Civil War. He might have a clue about where this sorry experiment will end.
http://dailyreckoning.com/fiat-currency/
obviously the Bernake's masters (who know their history better than the masses, to whom they feed garbage) know exactly where this is headed, and are currently rubbing the greasy little paws with glee in anticipation of the rape and pillage to come.
Retail sales way down gee how can that be Robo it goes against your theory 'markets pricing in super robust consumer sales'? Huh, guess you better try again.
<insert ANF plug here by Troll-du-jour>
Another green chute.
ew.. would that be a gang green colored chute ?
Here we go again. Just buy NFLX, OPEN and CMG. Can't loose no matter what the data.
Robo Lets buy RenRen:)
Tyler,
With a global lower growth than expected (Real-expected) and less income in REITS how its possible that IYR stays at highs?
Will be a nice option begin loading SRS US Equity for a 20% upside=?tia
Regards,
Tyler: Please do a segment on this:
CNBS' Joe Kiernan's New Book:
Your Teacher Said What?!: Defending Our Kids from the Liberal Assault on CapitalismBeing hyped on the air. A clear peice of political propaganda on a supposedly objective network
Kermit should be a dirty word here. Joe Kernen's take on bankster bail outs, Fed refunding Goldman Sachs and Hedge Fund's market manipulation, "It's all good". The Kermit loves Lord Blankfien and Jamie Dimon.
So i am guessing you haven't watched much in the last 2 years.
Objective network. Owned by GE (now majority rests with Comcast).
Immelt was on NYFRB up until 2 months ago. And currently circle jerks on the presidents council for something or other.
A network yes, objective....NEVER
#greenshoots.
And, lizzy36, do not forget that Immelt travelled to Moscow, with the One, and the moment Obama stripped the promised missile shield from our allies, the commies signed contracts with GE, worth tens of billions.
Let the spin begin!
Look how the MSM reported the LOUSY weekly unemployment filing data:
Fewer People Apply for Unemployment Benefits- AP
Thursday May 12, 2011, 8:35 am
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits plummeted last week, reversing nearly all the sharp rise reported the previous week.
What a spin job!
John Law, at this point I actually hope the 401K Bathrobe Brigades ARE being kept fooled by all this BS and never see the big rug pull coming leaving them hi and dry.
Its them, and their large slush fund on Wall St that is at the center of all this fraud and corruption and if they cant see theyre simply being set up for the biggest fall ever, then hell with em I wont feel 1 bit of sadness for em 1 morning when theyre all chopped off at the knees.
I hope the 401K crowd realizes that when considering the decline in value of the US Dollar, US stocks as a whole have generally been a lousy investment over the past decade. There have been some winners, but not everyone is an expert picker like RainbowTrader... ;->
The spin job being pumped out re. this lousy macroeconomic news makes me sick. It is obvious that Wall Street controls both political parties and the White House and the MSM. Any maverick political candidate that threatened the status quo would be beaten to a pulp in the MSM.
If pumelling by the MSM fails, there's the Kennedy solution.
Heh - and at Yahoo this story appears directly above one from yesterday claiming "More Americans are upbeat about the economy!!!!!!" As if that's coincidental.
Oh, and if you want a laugh go check-out the cross-tabs of that poll. AP (official mouthpice of MiniTrue) wanted a result and GfK was all to happy to oblige.
I'll be watching names like KSS today, down pre-market after earnings.
If it gaps down and takes off and closes green, then it is pretty much a lock that gas prices are headed back down to $2.50.
Thanks to 5 upcoming margin hikes on RBOB.
Yea Im sure you will be watching those names, and pretending you own any of it.
I will be watching the CNBC clip of John Dowd giving them the finger and telling them what he will give them :)
Pretzel logic, cargo-cult logic. "If a mass-market retailer's stock goes up, oil will be less expensive." Bring back John Frum!
Your retsil thesis is now suspect.
LOL.
Good luck finding a service station willing to sell physical gasoline to you at that price. Nothing like walk in traffic to boost consumer stocks.
If gasoline does go to $2.50, it would be an excellent investment opportunity. I would buy UGA or some other gas ETF. If you think gasoline stays at $2.50 for long, I have a bridge you might be interested in buying.
but yahopo finance says that initial claims "plunged"! good news all around, right guys?
Guys?
The Wall St Blowhorners are in their last stages of desperate papering over of everything, S about to HTF.
Yahoo News = Young Komsomol Daily Gazette
The new reserve currency, replace the Federal Reserve Note with the "Greenback".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvMosRQfaoA
Should be named the "Greenspan", give credit where credit is due.
"the economy is losing about 50K jobs per month."
It's a depression folks - don't let the money supply induced inflation make you think that is growth.
We're gonna need a new word for this, stagflation doesn't cover it.
Depreflation - where you get inflation within a depression.
This is going to last for a decade at least.
Its clearly a depression, a destroyed economy, and now theyre in warp-drive doing the last gasp action of every failed empire. Printing the currency, monetizing the debt. Anyone looking for the 'economic turnaround' is a delusional fool, bottom line.
VERY soon, the last thing anyone will be worried about is markets or prices of things as Hamas terror attacks sweep the country. Come and see.
Yep, it's like the mid-1890's, except you can't run to the Nevada Territory under an assumed name to escape your debts Back East anymore!
Dammit, another of my plans scuttled by some wiseguy know-it-all.
I'll be watching for police in riot gear coming to a neighborhood near you. Since there is no longer any law or economy, expect the cocksucker banks to just start brutalizing people, taking assets at will - homes, TVs, iPads, dogs, your wife, kids, they're coming for all of it.
The motherfuckers will crash everything eventually, impose martial law and begin filling up those FEMA camps. Fuck the bastards, they'll not take me alive.
I often think about my parents, who both lived through the depression and WWII, raised a good family and died in 2005 (mom) and 2009 (dad) and how fortunate they were to have died so as not to see this crap. Being 57 myself, I'm ready to die rather than live in squalor created by thieving bankers and their crooked political henchmen.
Bring it on, motherfuckers. Crash the market, put people out on the street, jail the rioters, shoot to kill, asswipes. When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose.
Viva los 60s, bitchez!
Thats right.
If you don't think its worth going through, then atleast go Full Tunisian and help us out!
Next time the bernank's on screen, turn sound off and study him. Unlike Greedspan's expressionless gel-crag, the 'Nank can't mute his own expressions... of fear, embarassment.
(Other: my 9-11 whodunnit evidence... the Shrub's (Dubyuh's) asinine face in that schoolroom: "Wow... it's really happening... be cool, be cool, just sit for, oh, seven or eight minutes, yeah that's what someone would do...")
The 9-11 classroom scene happened an hour before any plane hit anything. That fact really tweeks peoples mellons. As NORAD was put on stand down drill state hours before.
Fed's trading computer disabled by hackers, equities fall.
Meanwhile, many of my peers are planning our 40th HS reunion. Mindless fuckwads with SUVs and 401Ks too fucking stupid to realize that they'd be far better off turning their 500K in their "retirement" fund into cash, gold, silver and heading for the nearest border.
They suffer severely from cognitive dissonance (hat tip to ZH's very own CD) and will not accept that they will be raped, beaten and utterly destroyed by market mechanics and a chaotic global environment.
More iPads and Corvettes for everyone. The elites will enjoy them when they confiscate your belongings because they own you and all that you are.
The nation is ruined. We are over the edge. 2012 is too far off for Ron Paul (isn't that just a pipedream anyway?). Only two options now, fight or flight.
Here's a philosophical question - is it better to enjoy your SUV and parties now and suffer more later or is it better to deny yourself pleasures now for the prospect of an easier life in the future. Personally, I would like to take my family to Hawaii one or two more times (we go once a year) before it all falls apart.
More deflation.
The COMEX will be brought down to ZERO oz of registered silver.
We can do and we are doing it.
I guess the latest stats of inventory will be out later today.
Winning.
17K falling off of bennies? Herein lies the flaw of the unemployment calculations - those falling off actually help the unemployment percentage come down.
Time to rally!!! Well, maybe not today.
Maybe now they will take that downscale job.
We need good farm hands in arkansas.
Whoa whoa whoa, I was told that Manhattan rents were skyrocketing and the rental market is tigher than ever.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20110511/REAL_ESTATE/110519971/0/RE...
looks like silver will settle between #15 and $20, oil between 50 and 75
That would be wunderbar. But i doubt silver will easily break thru its 200 day.
For once, troll, you're right. It won't be easy. Might take two trading days to skip through the margin hikes. 8-o
Sum total of your technical analysis = "looks like"
Go back into your sister's closet, spanky.
Is that the deflation monster I hear?
Am I still the only one to hear him?
Been warning you guys for months about the end of qe2, but does anyone ever listen to a troll? Noooo.
MSM still reaching for good news. As of 1040 EDT, CNN.com hadn't posted on initial jobs , but had a headline that suggested housing improvement. I guess they don't think people will read to the 2nd paragraph...
http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/12/real_estate/foreclosures_fell_again/index.htm?hpt=T2
All more evidence that this economy is fermenting in the leach field.
Obama Tells Companies to 'Step Up' and Hire Workers
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43003679
This after he throws the anchor of Obamacare to small business owners and then tells them how to do the backstroke.
Just goes to show that 'voodoo' economics aka supply side aka Keynesian masturbation does not work-- and that's if you believe today's report to be as factual or meaningful as the past reports for the past couple years.
Recovery is bi-winning.
Not to worry, Tyler. Wall Street still has its Pollyanna complex!
Real news is irrelevant in world where we have printed prosperity!
Ok, the numbers didn't come in quite as high as one expected, but, really, things are not that bad, in fact, they are improving and many of my co-workers would agree with me: now, would you like fries and a drink with that big mac?
i just want fries! they have such baaad pota-toe cred.
no, these #'s don't seem too horrible, given the throes of the disater.
japan is being felt, economically, by economies which did not have a heluva lotta strength and resiliency to absorb the shock. so, they're absorbing it, anyway.