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The Trillion Dollar LIE? Housing Activity and Prices, Lending, Credit and Charge-offs Are All Getting Worse SINCE the Bailout!
Here is a presentation using readily available data from the Federal Reserve
and BoomBustBlog illustrating what clearly shows we have not come
anywhere near the peak of the economic downturn IF you believe that real
asset prices, economic housing activity and bank lending and available
credit are gauges of, and effect, economic health.
Since the loan peak of 7.3227 trillion for week ending 10-22-08,
total loans and leases at banks have dropped over 500 billion dollars.
That big spike on April 1st was due to an FASB rule change that forced
some 452 or so billion in off-balance sheet stuff back on their
books. Basically, this was not new lending, it was lending that was
held off balance sheet. Despite the stimulus that was supposed to
increase lending, the current total loans and leases is now at 6.7889
trillion. This is a drop of $533.8 billion. Not counting the +452 to
515 billion resulting from that rule change, the drop is ~1,000
billion. In other words, we’ve had total loan retraction in the amount
of nearly a trillion dollars since the bailout – green shoots, end of
the recession, no chance of a double dip (because we never left the
first one) and all. Unbelievable.
Let’s put this in context by referencing “Are We In a “Banking” Depression?” Friday, October 1st, 2010
Next, we take a look at the REAL housing situation… Those
Who Blindly Follow Housing Prices Without Taking Other Metrics Into
Consideration Are Missing the Housing Depression of the New Millennium. Monday, October 4th, 2010
Enough of the free stuff. Subscribers (click here to subscribe),
be sure to go through my housing models and bank analysis from the past
month. Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Sun Trust are up on tap. I will
be releasing out proprietary foreclosure and shadow inventory report for
professional and institutional subscribers by Monday, possibly over the
weekend, as well advanced views of GS and JPM from a balance sheet
perspective. This is very valuable information and analysis to plug into
your bank assumptions.
GS 3rd Quarter 2010 Update
Delinquency and foreclosure inventory – blog edition 10-2010
House price data, 2nd Quarter 2010- advertisements -
reggie, just watched latest max with your appearance. well done mate. especially like what you said at the end and how you defended it.
Go Reggie .... End the Fed .... cut their heads off on TV .
Great work, Reggie, as usual. Suggest, for future credibility's sake (since you're career is definitely on the rise) that you brush up on your grammar, as your posts continue to display such errors as "has fell" (first graph).
__________
The state can kiss my ass.
Observe, consider, write and deliver.
re grammar...content and effective delivery trump grammar for this reader.
In practice, grammer is mostly an editor's job to free author time and attention. Get thee an editor if need be.
IMO such is usual practice of published authors.
Everything WORSE since trillions in bailouts and stimulus and deaths of americans My God it just cant BE! But they PROMISED!
how about mark to market accounting? fair value accounting?
i've heard and like the american mushroom analogy..was talking to a farmer not too long ago and liked his pigs in shit analogy....wallow away boys and girls...eat that refuse of fruit rinds and rotted junk..just wait 'till until you're fat enough to slaughter...pork bellies have been doing well..lean hogs, meh
Thanks Reggie, and ZH community, please link this on your own sites/facebook/twitter/digg/etc., this is an important point.
Sorry to inform everyone, the wheels have already fallen off the wagon. As per my prediction in July 2009, the fradulent global banking system will implode upon its own weight. The most diseased/insolvent banks include, but are not limited to: BofA, JPM, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Socitie Generale, Banco Santander, Wells Fargo, Ally, Deutsch Postbank, Royal Bank of Canada, Lloyds, and last but certainly not least, RBS. The list continues of course, as all banks are linked and interdependent, but these 12 are in fact, already insolvent. I see little reason for anyone to pay their mortgages or credit cards at this point. The only thing to do is, buy food water and supplies and become self-sufficient.
120:10:19
RBC? Um...ok. First time i'd see it grouped with that list of banks. Even Lloyd's...how can you say it is "already insolvent".
There were some banks who pulled some crazy shit; RBC and Lloyds should not be part of that list. Look at their recent financial statements or have a look where they're becoming market leaders (hint: M&A for the former, structured products & HY the latter).
I hear that.
It's like how a wino recovers by going off wine for whiskey.
The naivete is astonishing. The function of the bail-out and most other "political" activity is to divert the attention of the population from the theft until the statute of limitations has expired. Create a Republican threat in 2010, hopefully the tea-baggers throw in a little violence spend $1.2Bn or whatever it takes to get Jug Ears reelected in 2012 and watch the statute go then the theft is complete. Then they can take the money and buy all the "public" assets for the then bankrupt states or whatever else they decide to do with it. A nation of 309,900 slaves 99,000 coutiers and 1,000 owners. back to the way it's supposed to be, in their opinion bless their little black hearts.
Correction. That should have read "309,900,000 slaves 99,000 coutiers and 1,000 owners."
Further correction: try "courtiers".
You can edit the original post you know. Just sayin'.
Are they still hiring coutiers and if so, what are the qualifications and must one move to DC? I do already own knee pads from my gardening days.