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TrimTabs' Charles Biderman Destroys The Labor Mirage
Why is it that people who base their opinions on facts come off significantly less amusing than the clownshoes who predict a future based on hope and personal conflict of interest bias. Watching a boring TrimTabs' Biderman debate with some guy named John Herrmann (not to mention some other "portfolio manager" named Ron Insana) who sounds like he just came out of accounting one oh one in Rose-Colored Glasses community college is simply deliciously hilarious.
Also, listen to Biderman for some objective truths about the economy and labor statistics.
Video link here.
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Hit the "link here" link above it, that works
Nice, they couldn't keep that one up, prolly too many facts that might confuse the viewers...
i cant see the vid
just search 'Charles Biderman', on the site....
I am sure he discussed the 1m additional unemployed that were most likely lost in the first half that they would have normally revised, but now they won't revise the figures until 2010?
Ron is a complete joke. And Herrmann thinking we head to 12,000 on the Dow is insane. There is nothing underlying in this economy to drive it do that. His productivity numbers are generally useless when 20% of the country is unemployed. That's delusional to a whole new level.
Ron was a successful hedge fund manager.
wasn't he?
ron "awash in liquidity" insana launched his "hedge fund" (actually a fund of funds) in 7/07 AT THE TOP - needless to say he lost money and closed it a few months later
he used to be a "journalist" for . . . CNBC. in the iteration before hedge fund manager.
Anybody can manage a fund in an bubble market.
After his epic crash and burn Ronnie Boy had to wait until enough people
forgot who he was to come back on CNBC.
Shame on him for coming back, CNBC for having the audacity to put him
on TV and, if this doesn't say it al, Cramer for hiring him to front that racket.
This video is not available at this time
Direct link
Biderman: "I feel like the one-eyed guy in the land of the blind"
You should see the expression on the faces of those two ass clowns. It was almost as if Biderman farted at 1 centimeter range from their noses.
Lotta blinking going on:) Is that "absorbing" information or is it "duh".
Saw Herrmann a few days ago and talk about a green-shooter!
Herrman reminds me of Beaker on crank... "MEEPMEEPBUYBUYMEEPMEEPBUYBUYMEEPMEEPBUYBUYMEEPMEEPBUYBUYMEEPMEEPBUYBUY"
Insana reminds me of a NJ used car salesman.
Michelle Caruso-Cabrera says "Deep divisions across the three of you, that's what makes the market"... WTF, one guy said buy TIPS, the other said he's in cash, the other is "BUYBUYBUYBUYBUYMEEPMEEPMEEP".
If they didn't post videos on the 'Net Vince the Shamwow guy would kick their ass in viewership.
LOL
That was so funny. Did you catch the profile shots of the anchor....Oh yeah
Just watched it again...
Oh yeah, bay-bee! Cleavage war is ON. And then they had her in profile when she said "the shape of the recovery"... Nice.
And I need to correct my first comment: Insana said "I'm in cash... But I don't want to look at Biderman's data regardless."
Biderman said he has 15 years of data and Insana (the sports reporter pre-FNN
days) who blew out of the business in less than a year says says his data wrong.
HILARIOUS !!!!!!
4% positive growth over the next 4 quaters... Man, I hope business are watching, that must mean there are jobs on the way!!!! wooo hooo... I mean, you can't have 4 quarters of growth without growing your labor force right?
D.O.O.D, but can you imagine what an impact would an additional 500 000 -1 mill newly unemployed have on the market and the general economical sentiment. The equivalent of a mini nuclear blast.This might be the breaking point for this insane 5 month green shoot run ..
"-followed by millions of dumbfounded dipshits". Tool
i only made it through 3:48 of the 7:30. the minute insana and herrman started talking over biderman, i had to turn it off. i'm only interested in watching fellow citizens talk over lying congressman.
Insana replaced the mad man Lenny Dyksta at the The Street . Com as their stock picker and "fund manager". My God what has the this world come to??? Ron Insana a portofolio manager, please just shot ME!!!!
ron insana used to be a "journalist" for . . . CNBC. in the iteration before hedge fund manager.
he's also married to somebody with whom i attended middle and high school.
Kudlow
not kudlow. her maiden name is/was panella (sp?).
ron insana is worse than jim cramer, if that is possible.
Cramer is entertaining, at least. Insansa is just douchy.
from wikipedia:
"Ron Insana (born March 31, 1961) is a former Senior Analyst at CNBC and was Managing Director of Insana Capital Partners. He was the anchor of CNBC's "Street Signs", which aired weekdays during stock market hours. Until December 5, 2003, he and Sue Herrera co-anchored CNBC's then flagship nightly financial news program, Business Center."
Biderman did an excellent job disproving the delusional prediction made by those two guys
The facts never lie
and the orange guy is creepy and i think he might be Carrot Tops boyfriend
CNBC 'big boobs': Important number out tomorrow 'considering the state of the economy'.
Huh ? 'considering the state of the economy' ?
I thought we are growing now. The new bull market.
we have an economy ?
i thought you weren't american?
I'm not, I'm asking about the planet Earth
EDIT: does that mean that I'm an inferior form of life, if so, I'm sorry for having the nerves to talk to you ..
Biderman says the same thing every month.
http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2009/06/stopped-clockcharles-biderman_...
the fact is most people like you look at reality standing on their head. All that Biderman is saying is a direct reflection of reality and how things are. But most people are so simple minded and blindly focused on the stock market and do not understand the economy. Market has nothing to do with the state of the economy, just like blowing a balloon full of air wont make you go to the moon, blowing the bubble in the market will not get the economy on the path of the recovery ..
Hermann is way ahead of the curve here. Productivity soars (like six or four percent!)after a total debt jubilee and he knows it.
It's not a debt jubilee, no debt has been forgiven.
I was being sarcastic.
Ron and John must bathe together --- what a bunch of swashbuckling gay fucksticks --- there is not a big enough "L" to paste on the foreheads of these loser sacks of crap ---
The problem is money has to start flowing in irrational quantity for these guys to make an ungodly living, unlike GS, JPM, MS that make a killing irrespective. So these buffoons on CNBC sound like how shall I put it, hmmm. 'fuckers' against the reasonable Biderman.
You've painted quite an image. Pink pirate ships with lots of Murphys Oil Soap and blubber?
Hard Data - 1
Economic Generalizations - 0
4% growth over the next four quarters? Stock market at 12,000? Just how tight IS the tinfoil on that guy's head?
I would say it is a pretty solid titanium foil.
Nope.. The same thing is used to treat his apples and his head to retain freshness.
That would explain the blinking...
Yes, I read you....
Go ahead master Kudlow...
Dow 12,000? Yes sir.
productivity spiking to 5.50%...ofcourse - productivity spikes when the unemployment rates spikes...16.5% and rising each month - sounds like a depression to me...
go to bls.gov at 8:30 check U6 - comprehensive unemployment and check birth death model to see how many jobs the government "made up"
those are the 2 things i look at right after checking the work week hours - which is at 33 hrs - i believe a post WWII low
yeah no kidding. let's lay off half the country so we can have 50% productivity growth
I'm collecting corporate incorporation and dissolution data from the states. Based on NY and CA data I've collected so far, there has been a downward trend in new business incorporations and a signficant increase in dissolutions over the last 10 years, not just since the recession started.
Good news Fannie's NPLs are only $171.0 billion.
Green shoots - please tell WallstreetPro 2
BANG !!! "There's yer fuckin' green shoots ! "
CNBC is a total waste of time for anyone to watch!
Good debate going on about if the employment figures are accurate or not, then the stupid question!! Where are you putting you money now? Who the hell cares where Ron Insana is puting his tiny stake of money???
It's like moths. Moths navigate by the light of fixed stars. So when you turn on your backporch light the moth thinks it's a fixed star and starts to use it to navigate and then circles around and around the light until it DIES. Someone tell them the stars gone.
The best was when Insana said "I don't have any data"
That means no-contest. I use that when I blank out from a reasonable argument and want to project a sense of sanity.
I heard him say that live on the radio (XM) while I was in the car, and I almost ran off the road laughing
IMO it was when he said "I don't want to look at your data" to Biderman.
This is out of drudgereport
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fannie-Mae-seeks-107B-in-US-apf-3979081619...
Drudge? Isn't that what authorities do downstream from waste treatment facilities so the flow doesn't get stopped up?
That's Dredge.
good grief, another million jobs lost revision for the first part of this year? somebody is lying here and it isn't charles. Man, this lying in your face, is just too much. This network wants people to believe in its relevancy and its viewership is down almost 30 percent. its crap like this, that has to be the cause of people turning this bullshit off. Man these people are just too much. Somebody ought to take that carrot top asshole out and give him a blanket party. He will cost many sheep lots of money, the fools.
I liked Insana better when he wore a toupee. And no way that lisping Herrmann is into women.
Kind of like the biblical character Samson, he lost his toupee and lost his power.
I think there will be an "earnings surprise", but it won't be the surprise he's yacking about.
that guy in the middle was a complete dufus....
no workee?
Link doesn't work either.
Searching for Charles Biderman doesn't work either.
harumph!
Try this link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1207143802&play=1
Who cares about economic data? All that matters is Michelle's fantastic rack.
The only 'shoots' I saw were the ones making Michelle's cleavage!!!
The answer to TD question is:
The same as when you claim that call for information on health reform lies in order to prepare counter offensive to send to flag@whitehouse you, TD turn into spying on people.
No amount of facts discused by me was ansered by arguments but by treatening namecalling and shouting over by blind ideological believers.
You still can not find a proof that there was any sign for spying on people, but spying on lies and disinformations. You still can not fing logistics that is needed for such spying agencies, and you still call that administration is following Stasi policies even tough you know that is imposible and that such infrastructure does not exist in US.
So. TD you should know the answer to your question why the truth is unatractive.
I can catch lightning in a bottle, but have no idea what you just said. LOL!
"When you're chewing on life's gristle, don't grumble - give a whistle ... "
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1loyjm4SOa0
oh here we go again. i thought you gave up already? good grief...
English is hard!!!
wa tchu tolkin abou
pardon me sir but your space ship is double parked.
you are going to have to move along.
Look into ATT facilities in San Francisco and interviews with the installation technician who put them in.
After listening to this interview it is becoming quite clear that the political, corp elite and media want to squash the people down so they did not think and revolt!
These pricks are losing power and they do not like. This reminds me of the time Schiff was doing an interview with the studdering realwhore and that dopey wiseass. Schiff was right on and he was being mocked for his facts.
It is time for the american people revolt and overturn these greedy pricks. Itg is time for them to take back their govt and remove this book worm bernanke and monkey geithner
Jesus, even Insana went to cash.... Maybe I'm wrong then :P
yeah I was thinking the same thing when I heard Doughboy went to cash. You gotta believe that doughboy is going to get sucked in too.
these elites are looking for the status quo. They are afraid of the future if blogs and people rise up and question their non-sense.
Ron Paul has got it right!!!!!!!
Those two guys came off as sooooooo stupid. I mean, the data is there. Would you let any one of those two idiots run money for YOU?
Insana manages play money for an internet site. He charges subscriptions to get his tips.
Ron works at thestreet.com. an internet site whose principals appear to be at least marginally associated with some not so nice people.
http://www.deepcapture.com/tag/jim-chanos/
like crooked cramer
I wish Bin Laden had targeted CNBC headquarters during a live broadcast; would have been more effective, and we wouldn't all be neck deep in bullshi* still.
Even better was when Santelli was on fast money today and asked if anyone cared if they revised the numbers down 1M for earlier in the year and they mostly said "it wouldn't matter because it is in the past"
Yeah the mountain is a mile higher than we thought. No big deal though
Insana says towards the end that he "went to cash on Monday".
If he's as bullish as he says he is, why go to cash?
One of these guys is lying :-)
If Insana wasn't good enough to be retained by SAC, why the hell should we listen to him? Listen very closely and you'll hear nothing new. A Wall St. hanger-on parroting whatever his pals will tell him to say. Now Cramer say's he's one of the 'great ones'; a sure kiss of death.
-Anonymous
you think he's another street carcrash.com portfolio manager ala lenny dykstra -another crammer great one?
Seems to be a theme amongst people with any fucking shred of sense.
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/wise-investing/remember-jim-cr...
Herrmann's twin brother, in January, describing the workweek hours then at 33.9 signified further job losses (currently 33.0). Also, thought we needed a 1.4 trillion stimulus and Bernanke to buy even more bonds to trigger a massive refi market. Not sure which brother is funnier?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5Nu9-o0TuA&feature=PlayList&p=D6D0732BA96DECC0&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=15
Did you forget GoldmanCrack makes the numbers??? ;-)
The big boyz are using the Lindsay report for trading...Has NOTHING to do with what the numbers are!
Would seem almost a critical move at this juncture in history to have the SEC pass a law stating 'hold yourself out as an investment "guru" in the media...Fine...In that case, document either on the show or online, audited figures for prior N years of assets managed'. That would be starting balances, periodic returns, cash flows in/out, exact/actual transactions and final ending balances. Similar to the way firms must do to be considered CFA standards compliant. Half the jokers including the guys on the video (ex. Biderman of course) would dry up and disappear like the carney barkers that they are. Enough of this freedom of speech garbage with no downside when people's hard earned sweat equity is at stake. No different than disclosures for medicine which can be less lethal in a manner of speaking.
Chuck B used to be the go to guy at CNBC when there was a scinttilla of sanity there. He was/has been on the level for a long time. If what he says is true, well, it is very bad news indeed.
Be careful what Biderman says, from 2005 - 2008 he was a blinded by the facts bull.
Bull! Of course being the operative word. Surely this bull market is true to its core. No manipulation here. It's darn hard to predict exteme levels of corruption.
= RALLY!
i have to disagree with Charles on TIPS. why would anyone risk owning TIPS?
-the inflation adjustment is based on CPI which is government data, and potentially fictional.
-the coupon rate is low compared to other treasuries of similar maturity.
-last but not least, TIPS owners are required to pay current income tax on the unreceived inflation adjustment.
i dont see any reward that compensates for the risks.
How can real time withholding "lag" the economy? I wish Blinky would have explained that. Most people are paid every two weeks; how much can the economy change in that time? And Blinky's interpretation of productivity growth is laughable - if the average work week is falling and output is the same, I can see that as "increaseed productivity", but it still means out in the real world, people are making less money. How that translates to 4% growth and Dow 12,000 is almost as ridiculous as the "Dow 36,000" prediction some clown (I forget his name) back in the 90's. I do recall that Clive Crook, then the editor of The Economist, had a debate with him at Slate.com, where he had to point out the unnamed clown was double counting profits in his method, and then compounding them to get his prediction. It makes me wonder if many of these clowns actually studied math or accounting.
"How can real time withholding "lag" the economy?"
indeed. that's as realtime as it gets. but it can belie wishing, hoping and confidence i.e. make believe. my favorite indicator is rushhour. right now it's a breeze compared to 2 years ago.
Fools for slaughter as the UE number has again gained speed and has increased from 409 UE per hour to 416 per hour--this is going geometric--and thats just in the last 24 hrs--this thing is gonna hit bigger than BIG MAMA crashing into the pizza buffet line.
Foreclosures the same thing from 477 perhr to 481--this system is total GOOKEMPUCKY
Bumped into Charles recently at the Santa Rosa Mall, frankly I dont know why he wastes his time on CNBC but his old school hockey knowledge is top-flight!
Here is my crackpot theory. The two CNBC ringers think this is a regular cycle. In a regular cycle as the Fed eases and lending and money flow into the transaction economy(my term for the 'real economy') and the financial economy. Since liquidty works quicker in the financial economy stocks lead out of a recession. Thus the almost religious belief that stocks are predictive.
In this cycle trillions have been poured into the financial economy and while plenty has been poured into the transaction economy it hasn't been enough to even begin growth. Thus the financial economy is rip roaring away and thinks the real economy is going to follow and as Firesign Theater said, jobs is on the way.
I don't think they are. We will see.
Firesign Theatre? You’ve made my evening. Garrison Keiler has nothing on Georgie Tirebiter, we’re all Bozo’s on this bus and don’t crush that dwarf, hand me the pliers. That’s what we need to turn this economy around, high quality, intellectual humor. Raw, Raw, Raw, that’s the spirit!
I think that comparisons with this financial situation and all previous "recoveries" is an exercise in naivete, or part of a con job. All recoveries were pumped primed with massive inflation, but there existed a manufacturing sector baseline. That baseline is clearly gone, and the risk of collapse worldwide requires 100s of trillions of new dollars just to get back to zero. Derivatives were a 1.2 quad-trillion notional value. It may be down from that now, but at any rate gauges for past recoveries are irrelevant.
Anyone have a link to this 1 million revision figure Biderman is talking about?
www.bea.gov
LOL...
How did I know someone would link that monstrosity. Thanks anyway.
BEA personal income release:
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2009/pi0609.htm - page 5:
For this comprehensive revision, personal income, personal outlays, DPI, and personal saving are
revised from 1929 through the first quarter of 2009. The most notable revisions are generally limited to
the period from 1997 to the first quarter of 2009. The revisions for earlier periods tend to be small.
-------------------------------------
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trimtabs-continues-throwing-sand-eyes-f...
“The personal income report the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Tuesday contained huge downward revisions to wage and salary growth,” said Biderman. “Now that the BEA is using unemployment insurance reports from the first quarter to estimate current wage and salary growth, its data confirms what we have been reporting for months.”
The BEA’s estimates of wages and salary growth changed from year-over-year declines of 0.8% in April and 1.1% in May to year-over-year declines of 4.0% in April and 4.2% in May. Also, the BEA reported that wages and salaries dropped even more sharply in June, falling 4.7% year-over-year.
Ron is so confident that he went to all cash on Monday.
Forget cash. Intermediate treasurys. Cash pays nothing. At least with treasurys you can grab a little of the flight to safety that will inevitably happen when the moon rocket beta bombers come crashing down.
That could be but what if we get another leg up and money floods out of treasuries and into equities. Even when you sell you have to keep in mind what may happen
You can get away with high quality corporates, take the extra 50bps or so out 5 years. Companies will struggle, but they aren't going out of business. If you're really nervous you can avoid the finance paper (or for simplicity use Vanguard's investment grade corporate fund).
It is generous to say the government published statistics are questionable. They are based on garbage in, which is then processed through statistical models to synthesize an estimate.
People in business who are required to submit survey data to the government usually have some priority issues, like running the business. Preparation of the survey data does nothing for the well-being of the business. The people who complete the surveys need to get it off their desks. I can tell you with certainty that management attitude towards government reporting is negatory. The government has armies of people dreaming up data to be collected from business. You get to a point where you really don't give a shit.
So this is where it starts. Everyone clammers for the resulting numbers and praise them as gospel.
Why are any of these people actually paid for what the do? It's all just complete and total drivel and this is massive farce. Why don't they show up wearing clown suits?
CLICK THE ADS, SUPPORT THE SERVERS
GS is invested in TrimTabs. The other guys better listen.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/07/65976/the-problem-with-non-farm-payroll-numbers/
This is a more detailed explanation of Biderman's reasoning. He is forecasting the final number after revision, not the broadcasted number before revisions. All these revision are pretty embarrassing - it would be the first thing I'd fix. It is an indicator of unsound management and manipulation.
I don't know what made the rehead dude and Insan(e)a cr&p their pants more, the one eyed comment or the mention that the insiders are selling hand over fist. That redhead dude sounds like he has a coke habit to feed or is late on child support. "I'm very conservative...Dow 10,000 by Thanksgiving".
that fuck will be running for the exits later this year / early next and will have sacrficed every penny of gains he's made thus far.
I am utterly astounded the people that some will entrust with their money.
its amazing the differences between the wealthy and those that wish to be. the former focuses on capital preservation and knows that gains like we're seeing now are normally never sustained while the latter tries to get rich quick at every chance.
Worth mentioning, because I used to work with him...and not that this means he's unqualified...but Insana started as a TV cameraman at Financial News Network. One day, the anchor didn't show up, so they tossed him on the desk. He didn't leave for years after.
He told me that, at the time, he knew little about finance. He has learned quite a bit. Now, by the time I worked with him, I'd already gotten my Master's in Economics (or was nearing the finish). We had many conversations about finance because I'd happened to have several professors whose writings he had enjoyed. I'd have to say, however, based on his talking points, he did not pay much attention to their writings.
This doesn't make Insana a bad guy or unqualified. In fact, I'd say he's quite the opposite of both - he's a terrific person and a good conversationalist on economic topics. But he definitely has conflict of interest at this point in time.
Herrmann & Insana shared a real big pipe before this segment.
Have to love Michelle's "Super Bowl" intro.
Watching the end of the video, apparently Herrmann was out all night feebasing.
Didn't we learn during the 2001 recession that when you cut heads fast, you can show productivity goes up. The stat looks nice, regardless of its actual relevance to growth in the economy or corporate profits.
And yes, let's clarify this applies to "profits" not related to how much money was paid in by the government...