This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

TrimTabs Continues Throwing Sand In The Eyes Of Fake Economic Data

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Recently there has been a notable media campaign claiming released economic data is either wrong or outright manipulated. Not in China mind you, but here in the U.S. The latest to jump on the bandwagon for economic data correctness is TrimTabs, which released this zinger earlier:

TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy lost 488,000 jobs in July, considerably more than the consensus estimate of a loss of 305,000 jobs. In addition, TrimTabs expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to revise its job loss estimates sharply higher for the first half of 2009 based on the latest unemployment insurance survey results.

“While Wall Street is convinced the recession is over, the economy continues to shed jobs at an alarming rate,” said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs.

TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. Historically, TrimTabs’ employment estimates have been more accurate than those of the BLS.

At least someone is using actual data to derive non-propaganda conclusions. TrimTabs continues:

“The personal income report the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Tuesday contained huge downward revisions to wage and salary growth,” said Biderman. “Now that the BEA is using unemployment insurance reports from the first quarter to estimate current wage and salary growth, its data confirms what we have been reporting for months.”

The BEA’s estimates of wages and salary growth changed from year-over-year declines of 0.8% in April and 1.1% in May to year-over-year declines of 4.0% in April and 4.2% in May. Also, the BEA reported that wages and salaries dropped even more sharply in June, falling 4.7% year-over-year.

“Two months ago, we asked BEA economists how they reconciled the huge declines in real-time tax deposits with their report of a modest decline in wages and salaries,” said Biderman. “They could not answer our question. We know now that by ignoring real-time data, the BEA was providing an inaccurate view of the economy’s health.”

While Zero Hedge has been wondering vocally for months why there was never an 8-K released indicating that the second (through fifth)-lien lender formerly known as General Electric had acquired the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, it is about time that some other much more legitimate media outlets than Zero Intelligence started asking the same question.

h/t Lizzie

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:59 | Link to Comment D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

More lost jobs than anticipated, downward revised numbers for the first half, why that's bullish, if it was actually that bad and we did this well, imagine how much better we are going to do when it actually gets less bad..Can some one say "??You do bull run run run, you do bull run run??"

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:04 | Link to Comment Slumdog Millionaire
Slumdog Millionaire's picture

So, are those GS and JPM nos also on same lines??? :D

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

No, right next to this on the sidebar is:

 

08-05 10:54: Goldman Sachs (GS) forecasts US real GDP growth in 2H 09 to 3.0% vs. Prev. est. 1%

 

They said Real GDP, not fake GDP

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:58 | Link to Comment gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Speaking of oil memo's ---Im sure this did not get out into the western pressed media ------I can taste that bonny light as we speak.

 

http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=149431

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:12 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:55 | Link to Comment gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Exactly who needs employees as employers go toast--

Weds 7/29 8:30 pm--Real UE stood at 18,944,657

Weds 8/5 1:30 pm-- Real UE stands at 19,000,322

avg loss at 409 per hr---136 hrs America lost 55,678 jobs and accelerating.

No jobs No mortgages

Weds 7/29 8:30 pm foreclosures stood at 1,299,814

Weds 8/5 1:30 pm foreclosures at 1,364,694

avg foreclosures in 136 hrs 64,880

Barter and Company will be be the next bubble.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:24 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Cash for clunkers accounts for 2.9% of it. ;-)

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:20 | Link to Comment Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Yes, that was the time of the lowest print today.

 

They said 1060, not 1006 - silly rabbit, tricks are for bids.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:11 | Link to Comment kote
kote's picture

Green shoots:

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=827960

The labor agreement will extend plant shutdowns next summer from two weeks to nine and during Thanksgiving week in 2010 at the Schenectady plant. It includes a cost-of-living wage increase freeze for the rest of the current contract, which expires in June 2011.

DePoalo has said his union has been talking with GE about bringing more work to Schenectady "for years." GE's requests were no surprise, he said.

DePoalo said the economy has been tough on local GE operations.

"The workload has been cut by 50 to 60 percent," he said. "It's actually horrific right now."

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:21 | Link to Comment Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Individual tax receipts were down 21.8% for Jan-Jun compared to 2008. I don't see how the claimed unemployment figures could be accurate.

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10433/07-2009-MBR.pdf

Added: There are about 150 million workers in the US, so sacking 20% would be 30 million jobs lost. Even factoring in for shorter work weeks and such, you've got to believe the true unemployment rate is roughly double the claimed 9.5%

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:50 | Link to Comment VegasBD
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:22 | Link to Comment Soldier of Fortune
Soldier of Fortune's picture

No offence...but you are out of your mind!  Ralph "Make em Poorer" Acampora always chimes in at critical market inflection points.  Mind his words ladies and gents for we have reached a short term top...fo shizzie.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:30 | Link to Comment Soldier of Fortune
Soldier of Fortune's picture

oh I forgot to mention that Newsweek so bodly declared the "Recession is Over" on their recent cover.  Yeah....I bought sum SDS calls today.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 21:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:22 | Link to Comment vicelord
vicelord's picture

This Trim Tabs memo, coupled with the article in the FT about S&P's OWN report on Prime delinquencies March - June being up 13.8%, makes this all just... surreal.

Meanwhile the AIG Jan. 35 calls are up 127% as of right now.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:23 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 17:04 | Link to Comment texpat
texpat's picture

I thought inventories had been stuck about 1.4 x sales for ages...

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:25 | Link to Comment waterdog
waterdog's picture

First, I want to apologize to Zero Hedge for what I have done.

 

I went to Yahoo Finance to check some readings. I stopped; I do not know why, on the home page and scanned the news articles being listed at the moment. I hit on a post by Tech Ticker on the falling dollar. I believe it was written by Aaron Task in Investing about Mark Dow. In a nutshell, Mr. Dow set forth the notion that the dollar falling is a good thing. His position appeared to be that the devaluation of the dollar is not caused by the over-printing of dollars, but, it is caused by other countries having more faith in their own currency.

 

Again I am sorry. This is what I get for straying. I will pay the $ 100 fine at the end of the month.

 

Tech Ticker- I love the smell of dogshit in the morning.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:21 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

lol, what exports, every industry is now located in Bhutan or Nepal or Mexico or wherever ..

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 04:16 | Link to Comment bobby02
bobby02's picture

Blodget has a fine track record. I would definitely buy their recommendations. With leverage.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:26 | Link to Comment vicelord
vicelord's picture

And I'm up over $30K today on AIG.  I'm gonna hold my 3K shares till thursday (they're expected to post an actual profit, so-to-speak.)  It's a really good feeling to know I'm making money on a scam that's being conducted by the establishment.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:28 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:29 | Link to Comment glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

excellent post  - about time someone piped up and publicly called BLS data a farce!

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:29 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:29 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:32 | Link to Comment Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Tyler, you just don't understand economics.

Because the numbers are so ridiculously bad, it means that they cannot get any worse.  If they cannot get worse, it means things will get better.

Really bad news, is good news for the market.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

They also own 19.9% of Direct Edge.... but they have NEVER even smelled this crazy Flash thing.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:44 | Link to Comment ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

This is soooo fucked up. They are going to lie and cheat their way for as long as they can. Then they will layer lies upong lies about the lies that they lied about and then they'l lie about that. And the worst part, fucking no one will ever be responsible. Must be the best fucking job in the world. you can outright fuck up a whole country or the world for that matter and not be held responsible and then when you quit you get guaranteed postition at GE or GS making megabucks and the govt pension that will never be altered. What a fucking gig that must be. Fucking bullshit. Fuck this shit I'm fucking pissed. 

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 16:04 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

Hmm...   Another "100% ad hominem" basher.  These fuckers are like mushrooms lately!

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:10 | Link to Comment Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Looks like a sandstorm coming:

 

Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) predicts 48% of US mortgages will be underwater by Q1 2011 vs. 26% Q1 2009 US MARKET COMMENTARY

Says:
- Predicts 69% of subprime US mortgages will be underwater by Q1 2011 vs. 50% Q1 2009

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 17:54 | Link to Comment plongka10
plongka10's picture

I just took a deep breath and digested these numbers. WTF? And we're going to the moon?

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:25 | Link to Comment OrganicGeorge
OrganicGeorge's picture

ADP reports:

Nonfarm private employment decreased 371,000 from June to July 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from May to June was revised by 10,000, from a decline of 473,000 to a decline of 463,000.

Note: the BLS reported a 415,000 decrease in nonfarm private employment in June (-467,000 total nonfarm), so once again ADP was only marginally useful in predicting the BLS number.

On the Challenger job-cut report from CNBC: Planned layoffs accelerated in July

Planned layoffs at U.S. firms increased in July for the first time in six months, signaling more uneasy times for workers and a continued drag on consumer spending and the broader economy.

Planned job cuts announced by U.S. employers totaled 97,373 last month, up 31 percent from June when it had hit a 15-month low, according to a report released on Wednesday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

July's announced job cuts brought the total so far this year to 994,048, 72 percent higher than the same span in 2008.

The BLS reports Friday, and the consensus is for about 300,000 in reported job losses for July.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:43 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:54 | Link to Comment Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Last night I talked with 3 people who run their own businesses.

 

One was going to apply for the part-time position advertised at Farm&Fleet, one was only getting jobs when a forclosure flipper called and said he needed all the copper parts inside and outside replaced again, and the other was going to visit his mother and try to figure out how to ask for money to get by this month.

 

These guys were all living the high-life a couple of years ago.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 20:59 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 21:26 | Link to Comment Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Good luck to you.  Of those three I mentioned, 2 had employees in the past.  One guy kept everyone on until the bitter end, and the other has slowly cut back until now it's just his secretary and one man in the field, besides himself.  Unemployment here is about 20% now.

 

Might start to have a migration here up to Oshkosh (ala Oshkosh Trucking).  After they scored that Army contract for new ATVs in Afghanistan, they had to switch from lean mode to mass hiring mode.  The lines of applicants trying for a job was classic.  And this is a small city.

http://www.fox11online.com/dpp/news/local_wluk_oshkosh_corp_job_fair_dra...

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 17:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 19:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 21:15 | Link to Comment Ben_the_Bald
Ben_the_Bald's picture

TrimTabs blew it big time back in April of 2008. They declared the recession, which was not yet oficially acknowledged, was about to end by that time. Here:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/04/more-on-federal-withholding-taxes/

However, I do agree with their current view that the NFP number is likely to be worse than consensus come this Friday. I'm reaching that conclusion looking a Travisonno's data.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 21:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!