TrimTabs Continues Throwing Sand In The Eyes Of Fake Economic Data

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Wed, 08/05/2009 - 13:59 | 25953 D.O.D.
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More lost jobs than anticipated, downward revised numbers for the first half, why that's bullish, if it was actually that bad and we did this well, imagine how much better we are going to do when it actually gets less bad..Can some one say "??You do bull run run run, you do bull run run??"

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 00:07 | 26751 Anonymous
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Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:04 | 25965 Slumdog Millionaire
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So, are those GS and JPM nos also on same lines??? :D

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:08 | 25972 Gilgamesh
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No, right next to this on the sidebar is:


08-05 10:54: Goldman Sachs (GS) forecasts US real GDP growth in 2H 09 to 3.0% vs. Prev. est. 1%


They said Real GDP, not fake GDP

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:11 | 25977 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Sounds like an oil pricing memo, adapted to this year's needs. This may be a positive confirmation of a major correction later this year.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:58 | 26070 gookempucky
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Speaking of oil memo's ---Im sure this did not get out into the western pressed media ------I can taste that bonny light as we speak.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:12 | 25981 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

GS haven't got rid of all their longs yet and gone short enough, so they need more suckers

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 00:07 | 26749 Anonymous
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Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:14 | 25984 Anonymous
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It's amazing what frontrunning the markets can do to GDP. Who needs employees, we got robots.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:55 | 26064 gookempucky
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Exactly who needs employees as employers go toast--

Weds 7/29 8:30 pm--Real UE stood at 18,944,657

Weds 8/5 1:30 pm-- Real UE stands at 19,000,322

avg loss at 409 per hr---136 hrs America lost 55,678 jobs and accelerating.

No jobs No mortgages

Weds 7/29 8:30 pm foreclosures stood at 1,299,814

Weds 8/5 1:30 pm foreclosures at 1,364,694

avg foreclosures in 136 hrs 64,880

Barter and Company will be be the next bubble.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:24 | 26005 mdtrader
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Cash for clunkers accounts for 2.9% of it. ;-)

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:31 | 26020 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

3% growth would get close to actually adding jobs to the economy.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:10 | 25973 Anonymous
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The government follows a simple methodology and it is "Let's bury our heads in the sand". See ... simple.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:11 | 25978 Anonymous
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Oh the market is going down so GS has to come out and ramp it back up again.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:20 | 25995 Gilgamesh
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Yes, that was the time of the lowest print today.


They said 1060, not 1006 - silly rabbit, tricks are for bids.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:11 | 25979 kote
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Green shoots:

The labor agreement will extend plant shutdowns next summer from two weeks to nine and during Thanksgiving week in 2010 at the Schenectady plant. It includes a cost-of-living wage increase freeze for the rest of the current contract, which expires in June 2011.

DePoalo has said his union has been talking with GE about bringing more work to Schenectady "for years." GE's requests were no surprise, he said.

DePoalo said the economy has been tough on local GE operations.

"The workload has been cut by 50 to 60 percent," he said. "It's actually horrific right now."

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:21 | 25980 Sancho Ponzi
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Individual tax receipts were down 21.8% for Jan-Jun compared to 2008. I don't see how the claimed unemployment figures could be accurate.

Added: There are about 150 million workers in the US, so sacking 20% would be 30 million jobs lost. Even factoring in for shorter work weeks and such, you've got to believe the true unemployment rate is roughly double the claimed 9.5%

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:22 | 26134 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Sancho--thanks for the input, but you're doing some overestimation...check the lines describing the 2009 decline in treasury receipts:

"Withholding for income and payroll taxes was about
$13 billion (or 9 percent) less than that in June 2008. CBO
estimates that more than half of the decline in withholding
resulted from provisions in the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), notably the Making
Work Pay tax credit."

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:50 | 26201 VegasBD
Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:16 | 25986 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Ralph Acampora sees Dow gaining 2,000 points from here - fears a melt-up -- he has emerged from retirement but has a pretty good track record

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:22 | 26001 Soldier of Fortune
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No offence...but you are out of your mind!  Ralph "Make em Poorer" Acampora always chimes in at critical market inflection points.  Mind his words ladies and gents for we have reached a short term shizzie.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:30 | 26017 Soldier of Fortune
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oh I forgot to mention that Newsweek so bodly declared the "Recession is Over" on their recent cover.  Yeah....I bought sum SDS calls today.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:07 | 26092 Anonymous
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Still remember Ralph on CNBC in Jan-Fed 2000 saying that Nasdaq 6,0000 was his target for that year, but it wouldn't surprise him at all if it went through that.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 21:25 | 26601 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Ralph was sooo wrong he had to do a Ron Insana for a while.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 16:36 | 26281 Anonymous
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I just looked at his book on Amazon he was calling DOW "20,000" by 2011. Thank you internet for exposing these CNBC hacks for what they are!

I'd say Ralph doesn't have a clue what he's talking about!

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:19 | 25993 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

none of this matters. it is old data. downward revisions mean future gains will be even more dramatic. BUY BUY BUY

(just scripting for cnbc a couple days ahead of time)

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:22 | 26003 vicelord
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This Trim Tabs memo, coupled with the article in the FT about S&P's OWN report on Prime delinquencies March - June being up 13.8%, makes this all just... surreal.

Meanwhile the AIG Jan. 35 calls are up 127% as of right now.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:23 | 26004 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

no surprise here...the "jobless recovery"

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:14 | 26115 Anonymous
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"jobless" recovery?
typo: I'm sure you meant "job loss" recovery....

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 17:04 | 26332 texpat
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I thought inventories had been stuck about 1.4 x sales for ages...

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:25 | 26007 waterdog
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First, I want to apologize to Zero Hedge for what I have done.


I went to Yahoo Finance to check some readings. I stopped; I do not know why, on the home page and scanned the news articles being listed at the moment. I hit on a post by Tech Ticker on the falling dollar. I believe it was written by Aaron Task in Investing about Mark Dow. In a nutshell, Mr. Dow set forth the notion that the dollar falling is a good thing. His position appeared to be that the devaluation of the dollar is not caused by the over-printing of dollars, but, it is caused by other countries having more faith in their own currency.


Again I am sorry. This is what I get for straying. I will pay the $ 100 fine at the end of the month.


Tech Ticker- I love the smell of dogshit in the morning.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:21 | 26126 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

whatever happened to the falling dollar makes
exports more competitive crap?

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:35 | 26170 Cheeky Bastard
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lol, what exports, every industry is now located in Bhutan or Nepal or Mexico or wherever ..

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 04:16 | 26977 bobby02
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Blodget has a fine track record. I would definitely buy their recommendations. With leverage.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:26 | 26009 vicelord
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And I'm up over $30K today on AIG.  I'm gonna hold my 3K shares till thursday (they're expected to post an actual profit, so-to-speak.)  It's a really good feeling to know I'm making money on a scam that's being conducted by the establishment.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:28 | 26011 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

what would baghdad bob do?

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:29 | 26014 glenlloyd
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excellent post  - about time someone piped up and publicly called BLS data a farce!

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:29 | 26015 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You guys are bringing me down. Time to go over to CNBC and get my daily dose of Paxil Americana courtesy of Denny K. As the Macho Man used to say, oooh yaahh!!

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:29 | 26016 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What's the over-under on the BLS birth/death pad-justment for Friday? 200k?

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:32 | 26023 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Tyler, you just don't understand economics.

Because the numbers are so ridiculously bad, it means that they cannot get any worse.  If they cannot get worse, it means things will get better.

Really bad news, is good news for the market.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:36 | 26028 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Well what do Banana republics do that we have yet to do, work harder Obama, not smarter.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:44 | 26043 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hate to break it to you, TD...

GS has an investment in TTabs.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:51 | 26061 Tyler Durden
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They also own 19.9% of Direct Edge.... but they have NEVER even smelled this crazy Flash thing.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:44 | 26046 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

This is soooo fucked up. They are going to lie and cheat their way for as long as they can. Then they will layer lies upong lies about the lies that they lied about and then they'l lie about that. And the worst part, fucking no one will ever be responsible. Must be the best fucking job in the world. you can outright fuck up a whole country or the world for that matter and not be held responsible and then when you quit you get guaranteed postition at GE or GS making megabucks and the govt pension that will never be altered. What a fucking gig that must be. Fucking bullshit. Fuck this shit I'm fucking pissed. 

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:48 | 26049 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Stop whining. Seriously, you whine constantly. You're bright enough to understand. So deal with it, unless you're one of the new breed who doesn't think they have to. Either way, STFU.

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 16:04 | 26214 dnarby
dnarby's picture

Hmm...   Another "100% ad hominem" basher.  These fuckers are like mushrooms lately!

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 14:50 | 26053 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Same old, same old, GS lets the shorters short thinking the economy isn't doing well (cos it isn't) then wham, whack 'em on the head again and get them to push the market back up by triggering their stops.

This market is going to the moon, GS says so and anyone who thinks otherwise and sees fundamentals and reality is cannon fodder for them

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:10 | 26103 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Looks like a sandstorm coming:


Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) predicts 48% of US mortgages will be underwater by Q1 2011 vs. 26% Q1 2009 US MARKET COMMENTARY

- Predicts 69% of subprime US mortgages will be underwater by Q1 2011 vs. 50% Q1 2009

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 17:54 | 26407 plongka10
plongka10's picture

I just took a deep breath and digested these numbers. WTF? And we're going to the moon?

Wed, 08/05/2009 - 15:25 | 26152 OrganicGeorge
OrganicGeorge's picture

ADP reports:

Nonfarm private employment decreased 371,000 from June to July 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from May to June was revised by 10,000, from a decline of 473,000 to a decline of 463,000.

Note: the BLS reported a 415,000 decrease in nonfarm private employment in June (-467,000 total nonfarm), so once again ADP was only marginally useful in predicting the BLS number.

On the Challenger job-cut report from CNBC: Planned layoffs accelerated in July

Planned layoffs at U.S. firms increased in July for the first time in six months, signaling more uneasy times for workers and a continued drag on consumer spending and the broader economy.

Planned job cuts announced by U.S. employers totaled 97,373 last month, up 31 percent from June when it had hit a 15-month low, according to a report released on Wednesday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

July's announced job cuts brought the total so far this year to 994,048, 72 percent higher than the same span in 2008.

The BLS reports Friday, and the consensus is for about 300,000 in reported job losses for July.

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