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TrimTabs Explains Why A Weaker Non-Farm Payroll Number Is Coming On Friday
Today's weak ADP was the first indication of why Wall Street may need to promptly revise its NFP consensus for Friday following last month's blowout 283,000 number. And while that number is legendary in its total irrelevance and complete lack of correlation to what the BLS reports, a more credible analysis of why NFP will likely come in lower than consensus comes from TrimTabs, which says that "Fed-fueled inflation in April has put breaks on consumption." The key culprit, and the main reason why the dollar just plunged again, is the realization that the economy has once again failed to restart the virtuous loop of trillions in monetary stimulus becoming a virtuous loop. And, as before, the only outcome will be more QEasing, and another massive spike up in commodities once Wall Street once again well delayed, realizes this is inevitable (as we have been claiming since January).
From TrimTabs:
Sausalito, CA – May 4, 2011 – TrimTabs Investment Research reports that the U.S. economy added 181,000 jobs in April after adding 283,000 jobs in March.
“Economic growth has slowed, leading to a decline in job growth,” said Madeline Schnapp, Director of Macroeconomic Research at TrimTabs. “Trillions of dollars in fiscal and monetary stimulus not only spurred economic growth but also unleashed inflation, causing a rise in food and energy prices, which is now hurting consumption.”
TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than initial estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In a research note, TrimTabs points out that various indicators point to slowing economic growth which is curtailing job growth:
- Wages and salaries increased an adjusted 5.3% year-over-year in April, down from 8.6% y-o-y in March. While moderate economic growth is characterized by year-over-year increases between 5.0% and 5.5%, growth decelerated throughout April.
- The TrimTabs Online Job Postings Index decreased 0.3% in April as hiring managers slowed hiring plans in the face of rising input prices.
- The four-week average of new claims for unemployment insurance increased to 408,500 in the past week, the highest level since February.
- Real GDP growth slowed to 1.75% in Q1 2011 from 3.11% in Q4 2010.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) – also referred to as top line inflation – jumped 6.1% annualized in the three months ended March 2011. The gasoline component of the CPI surged a whopping 71.2%. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased only 2%.
“The Fed is swatting at gnats while the elephants are running loose,” Schnapp noted. “Employment growth is slowing because of rapidly rising food and energy prices. Meanwhile, policymaker’s focus on core inflation ignores the fact that oil price spikes have been significant contributors to all but one recession since 1973.”
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May 6, 2011 - Flash Crash 2
a xxx parody
1. And "This is bullish because ___________" - Wall St. interview question
Maybe that jobs number will send GMCR up another $10 and SLV down another $5????
Or maybe TZOO will drop another 20%. You are the ZH Cramer, momofader.
Hows your TZOO doin RainbowTrader?
That clean Pacific air out in Sausalito seems to really help the quality & clarity of TrimTabs' analysis. The dummies in D.C. and N.Y.C. seem to suffer from carbon monoxide poisoning.
For examples of said dummies, just look above and below my post.
:) lol
Clown above me,. Joker below me, here I am,. Stuck in the middle with you.
And the clowns are proliferating! Do-do-do-doo-da-da-do-doo-doo (circus music)
For the record, referring to RobotTrader and uncle bigs
Take the junks.. Believe it or not there are some people who listen to Robo. I have never heard of the troll below your post.
That guy Robo, talk about fiddling while Rome burns, eh?
No money for food but somehow the Idiots are buying silver coins at Apmex. LMFAO!!!!! Apmex has a shitload of my 90% silver they bought at $48/oz.
LMFAO!!!!
...and when they sell it at $60/oz you'll look like an idiot. Bring in the next troll.
as long as youre smart enough to buy it back in the mid to high 30s
Did they pay you more for the dime or your quarter?
+22 - ooooh that was good cow.
Probably guaranteed to wildly beat then. Its all fake anyway, why throw the chicken bones and analyze?
This is a feel good market. It doesn't matter what's happening in the real economy. This site spends too much time harping on "numbers."
The economy is improving. Our elected officials and their appointees said so. So what job growth is slowing, economic growth is slowing, home prices are falling, inflation is rising and the earth seems to be plagued with war and unending natural and man-made disasters.
Osama is dead. The future is bright.
How many of the January and February job gains were from the additional compliance needed for Obamacare and other other new federal regulations?
The statisticians need to move jobs for regulatory compliance from the private column to the government column for a more realisitic picture of this failing economy. Regulatory compliance is coming at a load that equals half of the cost of taxes. This is a busted economy.
At some point, they will have to acknowledge this. We're adjusting our budget monthly in order to accomodate rising fuel and food prices. Monthly. Until this year, we had the same budget every month all year long.
We notice because I make it my business to notice. It can't be much longer before people who would prefer not to notice begin to face reality.
I also keep track of my average monthly expenses over each year. Here are the average amount I paid each month for core expenses - insurance, utilities, gasoline, and property tax. No discretionary spending is in these totals:
2008 - $898/month
2009 - $1015/month
2010 - $1264/month
I'm going to argue this is a real estimate of what inflation in the U.S. has been over the past three years. Certainly not the 1-2% Bernanke keeps claiming.
Has zerohedge just turned in to a PM pissing board? What about the fact we have no recovery going on, haven't since 2009? Makes one wonder who these trolls are....and why they are here............
Perhaps they are just saintly people really concerned about all us silver and gold bugs losing our money? Such compassion...............
I think most people want the house of cards to fall already. Some are starting to get agitated that blatant manipulation can go unchecked by supposed Federal agencies led by the pin head Eric Holder. Where is the protection promised us by Obama and his tool cabinet? There was never any doubt in my mind that this was all a Bureaucratic ploy to try and align itself with "the little guy". I think that is why so many people are trying to beat on the trolls.
As to the trolls themselves. Ha, that's easy it is any perverse, greedy douche bag either sucking from the Bureaucracy's tit, riding the wave of funny money, or they are part of the Bureaucracy of Misinformation.
Made a chart prediction of coming gold bubble and its relatively modest (25%) correction before returning to 2000 USD reached in peak:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=32176#p32176
Feel free to object based on rational or irrational grounds. There is still time both to join the move up, and to jump the ship at the peak ( October 2011).
Tyler,
All these numbers only matter to the wonks on Wall Street! Here on Main St., it's bad. My main business is servicing the Mortgage Field Services for BoA and Fannie Mae and all the minor players in fraudclosure. I clean out many houses (REO) per week and service hundreds of vacant/abandoned houses per week.
In all my travels, I can't recall one converstation with a neighbor or anyone else I meet where the topic of conversation is the ADP, BLS or any other number released by the myriad reporting agencies. I just hear how bad the economy is, how high food and gas prices are and how the current regime is the root cause. Amazing how everyone is looking for a saviour in the political arena to step forward with a majic bullet and slay the behemoth of our out of control government.
Sadly, it is not going to happen until people realize that the government is the puppet and there are puppet masters in high places pulling the strings of our economy and government. While I understand the importance of statistics to traders, corporate titans and Wall St. wizards, it is perplexing for those close to Main St. to have to endure the futility of news releases of meaningless mumbo jumbo.
DaddyO
The avg american is only concerned with availability of movie rentals and empty calorie McDonalds food and Snookies chunky ass.
The two do seem related.
http://www.superphotospace.com/images/snooki-ass-cleavage05_4c6a607e4b25...
Speaking of McDonalds. Does the 181k jobs include the 50k that McDonalds added. Bring on the bull market!
It does! This is why McDonalds got all that bailout money!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42894153
There is no magic bullet that will make things better. Accepting that fact will put the ordinary person miles ahead.
The govt. will continue to debase the currency, so people need to protect themselves from the inflation, that's all you can do.
What it means is pain, and lots of it, and the fallout from the currency crisis will be huge, lot of entitlement people in the streets kicking and screaming about checks not coming or if they do not buying anything etc, but there's no avoiding it.
The choice to inflate has been made, and we're creating money / credit and so that will be with us until the end. They can't stop now, to do so would be to admit that the austrians were right, good luck with that.
Don't ever underestimate the .gov's ability to kick out the ckecks. The psychological impact of recieving the check will always supercede its lack of buying power. Inflation will certainly eat up more and more of SNAP, WIC and unemployment benefits but getting the check will be a pallative for the pain of slow, certain starvation.
DaddyO
Truer words were never spoken. Here and in your post above.
P.S. Your pseudonym would not be related to the movie, would it?
Evl,
It's pretty hard to get past the pain on Main St. The truth we see in the faces of our neighbors cannot be changed by the manipulation of all these so called leading indicators.
Just waiting for the next shoe to drop...
DaddyO
The moniker is a nickname from my kids, don't know where they got it.
Same here in Tulsa, and we are in a much better shape that the coasts.
<<< Wages and salaries increased an adjusted 5.3% year-over-year in April... >>>
Baloney.