TrimTabs: "No Amount Of QE Will Be Able To Keep The Current Stock Market Bubble From Bursting"

Tyler Durden's picture

It was the night before Christmas Eve, and CNBC trucked out TrimTabs' Charles Biderman to a de minimis audience, knowing full well that a man with his understanding of money flows would very likely repeat his statement from last year, that there is no real, valid explanation for the inexorable move in stocks higher, as equity money flows in 2010 were decidedly negative, and any explanation of the upward melt up would need to account for Fed intervention (and no-volume HFT offer-lifting feedback loops but that is a story for another day). A year after the first scandalous report was published, TrimTabs is sticking with its story: "If the money to boost stock prices by almost $9 trillion from the March
2009 lows did not come from the traditional players, it had to have come
from somewhere else.  We believe that place is the Fed. 
By funneling
trillions of dollars in cash to the primary dealers in exchange for
debt, the Fed has given Wall Street lots of firepower to ramp up the
prices of risk assets, including equities." And, wisely, Biderman, just like Zero Hedge, asks what happens when the buying one day, some day, ends: "...stock prices will be higher by the time
QE2 ends, but economic growth will not be sustainable without massive
government support.  Then even more QE will be needed, and stock prices
could keep rising for a while.  In our opinion, however, no amount of QE
will be able to keep the current stock market bubble from bursting
" Ergo our call earlier that Bernanke has at best +/- 150 days to assuage the market's fear that QE2 is ending (not to mention that we have a huge economic recovery, right Jan Hatzius? We don't need no stinking QE...). Therefore the best Bernanke can hope for is to buy some additional time. At the end of the day, the biggest problem is that the massive slack in the economy means that LSAP will have to continue for a long, long time, before the virtuous circle of self-sustaining growth can even hope to take over. By then bond yields may very well be high enough that Ron Paul will demand someone finally bring Paul Volcker out of the fridge.

From TrimTabs:

What Source of Money Is Pushing U.S. Stock Prices Higher?  Market Cap Rises $2 Trillion in 2010 as Buying by Companies and Foreigners Offsets Selling by Pension Funds and Retail Investors. However All of Gain and Then Some, $2.4 Trillion, Since QE2 Announced at End of August.

At the end of 2009, we published a report entitled, “Are Federal Reserve and U.S. Government Rigging Stock Market?”  We questioned whether the Fed or the Treasury were pushing up stock prices because we could not identify the source of the money that pushed the market cap up by nearly $7 trillion from mid-March 2009 through December 2009.
At the time we released our report, many people thought it was crazy to suggest that the Fed or the government would manipulate the stock market.  Yet Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and Brian Sack have all but admitted publicly this year that the Fed attempts to prop up stock prices.
The market cap of all U.S. stocks increased $2 trillion in 2010.  All of the gain and then some, $2.4 trillion, occurred since the end of August after QE2 was announced. Once again, most of the money to push the market cap higher does not seem to have come from the traditional players that provided money in the past:
Companies and foreign investors were net buyers:
·       Companies.  Corporate America was the biggest net buyers of shares, although all the float shrink occurred between January and August.  The float of shares decreased $150 billion in 2010, mostly because new stock buybacks nearly tripled from the depressed levels of 2009. However, between September and year-end the float did not shrink but instead grew by $14 billion.
·       Foreign investors.  Foreigners provided some buying power in the U.S. stock market, purchasing a net $89 billion in U.S. equities from January through October.
But the buying of companies and foreigners was offset by selling elsewhere:
·       Pension funds.  Pension funds were apparently huge net sellers of U.S. equities.  Based on Informa Investment Solution’s Plan Sponsor Network data, we estimate that managers of separate accounts pulled $169 billion from U.S. equities from January through September.  Pension funds account for about 60% of the assets in separate accounts.
·       Retail investor funds.  Retail investors were net sellers of U.S. stocks.  U.S. equity funds and ETFs redeemed $38 billion in 2010 even as a whopping $273 billion poured into bond funds and ETFs.
·       Retail investor direct purchases. We doubt retail investors were big direct buyers of U.S. stocks when they were net sellers of U.S. equity funds and retail investor sentiment was relatively cautious until late this year.

·       Hedge funds.  We have no way to track in real time what hedge funds do, but we doubt they were big net buyers of U.S. equities.  While hedge funds posted an inflow of $60 billion from January through November, the most popular strategies were Event Driven ($14 billion), Fixed Income ($9 billion), and Emerging Markets ($7 billion).  Equity Long Bias, Equity Long Only, and Equity Long-Short received a total of only $12 billion.
U.S. Stock Market in Trouble Once Fed Interventions Stop. No Amount of Bond Buying Will Keep Stock Market Bubble from Bursting Eventually.

If the money to boost stock prices by almost $9 trillion from the March 2009 lows did not come from the traditional players, it had to have come from somewhere else.  We believe that place is the Fed.  By funneling trillions of dollars in cash to the primary dealers in exchange for debt, the Fed has given Wall Street lots of firepower to ramp up the prices of risk assets, including equities.
But what will happen when the Fed stops buying assets?  If QE2 works and the wealth effect of higher asset prices creates a sustainable economic recovery, we think the Fed will stop its QE activities.  The Fed is legally mandated to manage the economy, not the stock market, and we think the Fed will sacrifice the stock market to its legal mandate.  If that happens, stock prices are likely to plunge to well below fair value.
A more likely outcome is that stock prices will be higher by the time QE2 ends, but economic growth will not be sustainable without massive government support.  Then even more QE will be needed, and stock prices could keep rising for a while.  In our opinion, however, no amount of QE will be able to keep the current stock market bubble from bursting eventually.
Mutual Fund and Exchange-Traded Fund Flows Not Dramatically Different in 2010 Than in 2009.  Bond Funds Post Big Inflows, Global Equity Funds Post Moderate Inflows, and U.S. Equity Funds Suffer Redemptions.

Mutual fund and exchange-traded fund flows in 2010 were not greatly different than they were in 2009.  Bond funds—references to “funds” in this section include both mutual funds and ETFs—continued to rake in huge amounts of money, although inflows subsided to $273 billion in 2010 from a record $416 billion in 2009.
Equity fund flows were mixed.  Global equity funds posted a respectable inflow of $87 billion in 2010, up modestly from $62 billion in 2009.  Nevertheless, global equity fund inflows were nowhere near the peak of $182 billion in 2007.  U.S. equity funds posted their third consecutive outflow, losing $38 billion in 2010, little changed from the outflows of $42 billion in 2008 and $47 billion in 2009.

Flows shifted dramatically in late 2010 as the municipal bond market tanked and bond yields backed up.  Bond funds lost $1.0 billion in November and $16 billion in December, the first monthly outflows since late 2008.  If this selling persists, the exodus from bond funds could put more upward pressure on bond yields.


Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Quixotic_Not's picture

Since the incept of the U.S. *Industrial Economy* collapse that started in the 70s, the perp skool predators have been working OT to keep the *illusion* of *prosperity* alive.

A chicken/chiclet in every pot, a credit card in every pocket, a home loan for every collective of suckers (i.e. sheeple).

Starting in 2008, the Fraud St./DoC kabal began looting the U$ Treasury direct to deposit, and nary a .GOV regulator raised his parasitical head.

Until liquidity via amassing generational debt slavery stops working, the games will continue!

SteveNYC's picture

Snake Plissken......yes, always liked the way he just glided into lower Manhattan and took care of the criminals captive on the island. He'd have his work cut out for him in 2011, might need assistance!

benburnyanki's picture

Goldman Sacks was the 'Disintegration' tool used to kill the tax protesting middle class who pay the majority of taxes relative to their income. You hi rollers on this site could give a rats ass cause you all earn so much that sales taxes and income taxes no longer eat up your 'discresionary income'. So the DHS = Stasi = Secret Citizen Spy Agency. Just like Stasi were supposed to stop external terrorists and spys, DHS is to do the same but only spys on USA citizens. When was the last time a big fat machine gun toten bro workin fer DHS was nice to your skinny white ass. If little Napolean's DHS was really DHS they would be chasin wet backs jumpin into El Paso instead of hiring her fat gay cousins to work as fanny fingerin TSA agents.

Don't you sheep get it? Oh I see, the CIA took all the E.German Stasi files in 1990. So nobody can figure out the stuff in the book NDCIC about NYC Jew Mafia funding Bolshevicks for the Rothschilds Shell Oil Co to drill in Siberia against Tzars wishes. Jews were mostly all of Stalins Komizars who killed 60 million Ruskies. Jews were running the Stasi in Poland and E. Germany apparently according to reports from me shipmates from that neck of da woods folks. When Kaptin Krunch say Jew Mafia running the world, we back up what we say with facts.

Here is Stasi in E.Germany website showing disintegration is used to destroy someone secretly. The USA middle class has secretly been killed by the Jew Mafia cause we hate the Federal Reserve the most since it makes middle class pay the highest tax (total % tax to discretionary income ratio).

Fuck and then Burn Bernanke!

Ben Burnyankee say: "We wacked Jesus & JFK for Bank Bustin' and walked, and have a 40 foot container of Gringo Bar-B-Q sauce"

Read Best Bank Book "None Dare Call It Conspiracy":

Video shows CIA & LAPD Import Cocaine:

Kennedy was right when he said to bust CIA into 1000 pieces. They the hitmen for the Jew Mafia at the Fed Reserve (aka Goldman Sackers)

part 1
part 2
part 3
part 4
part 5
part 6

mess nonster's picture

Like the rest of us, he's living in Slab City in a Junked out 74 Winnebago, ekeing out a living from the sale of ebay junk, illegal drugs, and SSI... it's not the 80's any more.

Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

If you want to talk about looting the system, I would urge you to spend some time looking at the 1980's, and how the transformation from a "tax and spend" government to a "borrow and spend" government became the juggernaut that fueled bubble economics for three decades and will eventually lead to the collapse of the this formerly great country. 

Start with 1982 when Alan Greenspan is elected the Chairman of the National Commission on Social Security Reform.  Since Reagan promised everyone that he wouldn't raise taxes to fund government operations, he simply created another cookie jar for himself and his cronies. With the help of Greenspan, they jacked up the social security tax - of course, they put a limit on SS payroll deductions so the rich wouldn't be looted, but the middle class would - in an effort to create surpluses to pay for the baby boomers SS withdraws further down the road.


Now ask yourself, if Reagan/Greenspan jacked up the SS ponzi holdings in 1983 to pay for baby boomer retirements, why is Greenspan - two decades later - telling everyone that Social Security is broke? Those extra SS payroll deductions accounted for an extra $2.5 Trillion in revenue.  Where the fuck is it?

The reason it's broke: because Reagan and all the presidents afterwards looted the ponzi surplus in the Social Security cookie jar, and bought treasuries with them to fund an ever-expanding government. Debt goes up. Currency goes down. And middle class America who are relying on their SS benefits are told they probably will have to concede to reductions.  If Reagan reduces taxes on the rich, did you actually think wouldn't create a different cookie jar?

So, instead of "tax and spend" we have "borrow and spend."  What cocaine was to Wall Street in the 80's, the new "borrow and spend" was Washington's cocaine for the next 30 years.  

It took 200 years to reach $1 trillion in debt when Reagan began. Then, suddenly, it only took 4 years to double it. After the Bush I adminstration, our debt was $4 trillion. After Bush II, our debt was $12 trillion.   


Check out this fucking ridiculous chart:

That chart is the effect of "borrow and spend."

Ever wonder why Paul Volcker was Fed Chairman for only 8 years, while Greenspan lasted 20 years?  Because Greenspan was the perfectly complicit puppet for all those presidents to loot the system and create a pozi economy of "borrow and spend," while Volcker was increasingly reluctant to play these ponzi games. 


So, if you want to talk about looting the system, go back to Reagan. Then follow Greenspan - who Matt Taibbi appropriately calls The Biggest Asshole in the Universe - with a forensics microscope.  

Then read William Fleckenstein's Greenspan's Bubbles

Then take a Xanax - you'll need it.    

tmosley's picture

Wow, I agree completely.

How does that make you feel?

Also, maximum trolling--completely exhausting any credit you might have, then rebuilding it with a couple of insightful, if slightly biased posts (notice you left Clinton off of your list of presidents there).  Planning to gather some credit so you can start with the personal attacks again, in the hopes that some people might agree with you?  Or did you just make a new years resolution to stop being an asshole and start actually contributing to conversations?

Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Wow, I agree completely.

How does that make you feel?


It makes me feel like I probably have it all wrong.  


taraxias's picture

great post, tmosley, took the words out of my mouth but you expressed them a lot better

as far as I'm concerned trolls & assholes never change and he is both, so don't expect anything to change in the future

all the best in 2011

Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Hey taraxias

Why are you using a picture of your wife as an avatar?

taraxias's picture

was it the troll part or the asshole part that got to you the most?

Red Neck Repugnicant's picture


Anyone who identifies with taraxias - the profoundly ridiculous Greek Hip Hop wannabe - is probably also a Eurotrash douche bag who marinates himself in enough obnoxiously musky Axe Body Spray to violate various EPA standards for pollution.

And THAT person should just keep his fucking mouth shut, especially if your wife looks like a sasquatch from Chernobyl.


Calmyourself's picture

You could actually be relevant.. No, no you cant.

RockyRacoon's picture

You know, I don't generally like your raggedy ass, but the wife from Chernobyl part got a helluva chuckle outta me.   I hope you are as relevant and funny this next year as you have been here.  Cheers.

bonddude's picture

You suck...uh, donkey dicks!

politics is dead fool.

tmosley's picture

Well, that didn't last long.


gravitas's picture

hmmm... trite and predictable.

you can do better than that.

Chappaquiddick's picture

The tissue of lies and deceit are falling away.  The whole world has been sold down the river for a few quick bucks and bloated profit margins for Corporate America, primarily US Oil/Gas/Energy companies and the Banksters (of course).

Jimmy Carter warned us, threatened their interests and was disposed of.  What followed next was 30 years of going in exactly the wrong direction and doing everything possible to keep us on that course - capturing and stifling of any / all  alternatives:  energy patents, electric cars, government policy, all the while increasing our dependence.

What gets me is that for 8 of those years we had Al Gore at the summit of power, cloaked in his green credentials and still we got no change of direction.  Surely they knew about peak oil and the energy cliff that follows it - why didn't they act?

Its too fucking late now.

Put these pieces togther and our current circumstances are the direct result of 30years of rape and pillage of the American nation by the Corporate overlords and their political stooges.  The oil allowed for the creation of wealth and that wealth has been siphoned, now more lately openly stolen, into the hands of a select few - the ring bearers, who rule us all.

Its stuff like this that breeds civil unrest and the urge for independence.

They are of course well ahead of us on all fronts.  Their focus is now containment and control and to do that they're using money and food.  That's why we're getting penned in with Laws like S510, monstrous capitalism: Monsanto GM neutered seeds; and the exits being firmly closed and soon to be locked: capital controls.


benburnyanki's picture

right on matey! oh and they poisoned the GOM so we can't even fish for food after GMO kills the crop seeds.

I saw the CIA agents workin' inside USA for last 30 years 'Disintegrate' all my efforts in Earth First against deforestation and the Fed. I never knew how this was the Jew Mafia who also ran the Stasi that has done this to the USA. Nothin' scares a Jew Mafia more than 300,000,000 free fuckers with guns. So they had to hijack the CIA & NSA to rope and brand us into 'managable sized sheep herds'.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Excellent post RNR...except you didn't look back far enough. Greenspan and his presidents learned from LB Johnson who funded the rediculous war on Viet Nam, and the Great Society, with borrow and spend policy. Nixon and Ford continued and expanded Johnson's Great Society programs. The stated goals of these programs were to eliminate poverty and racial injustice. I believe that the goals were admirable (in an elusive, Don Quixotish manner) but the programs were enormously expensive and the money to fund them was borrowed through more treasury issuance and ever greater US debt. Johnson was spending enormous amounts of money and lives in Viet Nam while at the same time pacifying the home front with expanding social programs. 'Guns and Butter' was the phrase.

Of course, those that followed Johnson had learned a lesson in how to steal ever more from the US Treasury...and, they did.

Ben Fleeced's picture

LBJ learned well from FDR who in 1934 used the AAA,CCC, FERA and WPA to massively buy votes in the 1936 election cycle. In 1935 Raymond Clapper noed, "This does not seem to be government as it has been known, but it is right now the lasso which enables Mr. Roosevelt to hold the country in hand".





mick_richfield's picture

RNR --

I have a question for you.

What would you say is the relationship between (1)  the substitution of fiat currency for gold and silver, and (2) the rise of the Social Security ponzi, which was later looted?


Ben Fleeced's picture

FDR's cravings for centralized power.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I vape weed, don't need xanex.

1913, bubbles.

Bernanke was nominated by Bush.  Get a grip.

Always strapped, when I hit the club/Players give me daps, ladies give me hugs

And since I'm paid, dudes be muggin' me/You know I mug 'em back/Dudes be muggin' me/You know I mug 'em back

Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

Bush = Obama = ridiculous puppet frontman. Both resemble toy monkeys.

I bring this up only to question the meaning of the statement: "Bernanke was nominated by Bush". More like Bernanke nominated Bush. More yet like: both Bernanke and Bush were nominated by higher powers.

Not all Presidents are puppet frontmen... GHWB was probably the most powerful and savvy cat in the White House in all of the twentieth century. LBJ was powerful and savvy, too, but he was limited by the fact that he was born in the dirt in Texas. He was limited quite in spite of the fact that he was a genius political prodigy — a self-made, fascist, sheep-herding political leader if ever there was one. I don't respect LBJ for what he was. But I have to respect his ability to rise to the top of any pyramid he was thrown into. It's only when he achieved the Presidency that he saw a pyramid he couldn't rise further in, and at that point in his political life he was driven by his own constitution into dusk and dormancy. I find LBJ's real résumé absolutely fascinating, and I'll probably write it up for me to link to all you ZH-ers or anyone-at-all at some future date. Haven't done that yet, though.

GHWB, on the other hand, was born into a class that could rise higher than LBJ would be allowed to rise in. Energy, intelligence, and finance. GHWB was a savvy player in this triad that was and is superior to the "military-industrial-etc complex".

I'm going to stop my rant here, for now, but I'm just waiting for someone to question what I have asserted. If no one does, you will hear me pipe in on some future post with more of my historical, financial, political assertions.

At the end of the day, I posted for this reason: I laugh like a madman when I hear "Bush appointed Bernanke". This is folly. Bush didn't do one damn thing that wasn't approved of by his puppet masters. Much like Obama.

UninterestedObserver's picture

Yeah it all started in 1982 with Greenspan - what a fucking moron. 

Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Please explain the unbelievable acceleration of US debt that began during the 80's which is evidenced in the chart that I provided. What happened in the 1980's that started this rapid deviation from the historical norm?


combatsnoopy's picture

Wasn't it Clinton who put social security pensions in the US Treasury?  How else did he "balance the budget"?


Political pundits, easily owned. 

Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

No.  Either you don't understand history, or you purposely distort it to protect your political convictions. 

It was Reagan.  

And if you don't understand that, then you obviously don't understand how Reagan "balanced HIS budget," and that probably also contributes to your partiality (I'm assuming) to the Republican party.  

Lastly, you obviously didn't read my post because I said that "every administration afterwards..." which would include Clinton, too. 

Ignorant easily owned. 

Midwest Prepper's picture

Snake Plissken... I thought he was dead....

goldfish1's picture

Chicken in every pot is a fine idea and certainly as an advanced civilization (?) we should and could achieve that.

Instead, the gluttonous monstrosity sucking our life blood and the heritage of our progeny has been fed with our own naivete and willingness and now the beast must be annihilated.

Each one of us has the power to change our own world and reclaim and assert our individual power. I guess it's time to get started eliminating the gluttony in our own lifestyles.

velobabe's picture

money too tight, to mention 1985 simply red.

good reflection in todays world.

4xaddict's picture

Probably a more appropriate misheard lyric version of that song with Mick Hucknell playing the role of "Banksta/JMafia/TheBernank/et al" and the bunny playing the middle classes

Tense INDIAN's picture

Indeed ...Dark days are coming.....lets have some fun...


heres the game...its not released yet though:

Missing_Link's picture

Nice viral advertising there  ...  not.

This game looks like ass.

TruthInSunshine's picture


...big problems in equity markets early in 2011, very possibly.

Bernanke has lost the real estate reflation game.

As residential, office and retail construction's blistering clip from 1997 through 2007 was masking the hollowing out of the manufacturing segment of the American Economy, and as manufacturing workers turned construction workers/skilled trades in the real estate industry now have no bubble-inflated sector to rotate into, Ben's last best hopes of finding the next, best refuge of the structurally unemployed/undermployed can't be found.

All Bernanke can hope for is that a situation won't arise that forces the Federal Reserve to open Maiden Lane's in spades, expand the Fed's balance sheet at an even more insane pace than was done under TARP/TALF to purchase deaden weight MBS, in a desperate attempt to save a collapsing bank and financial sector in 2011. That would necessarily require the Fed to either bail on its hopes of saving the banking system from a catastrophe, or to literally begin the inflationary push that will cause real (not speculative) political and social strife.

I can literally see Bernanke pondering all his options on trying to resuscitate real estate activity, realizing it's the only surrogate for manufacturing, and coming to the inescapable conclusion that neither sectors are coming back anytime soon.

What would Alan Greenspan do?

Oh, that's right: Greenspan would do what Bernanke has already done; lower interest rates to the point he has, with not much to show for it (arguably, he has adverse effects to show for it).

Bernanke's only remaining options are between a cold shit sandwich and a warm shit sandwich.

Bernanke faces a structural downturn not seen in U.S. history (or European history). This is the opposite environment in the U.S. after WWII.

Watch for a lack of demand for credit as a big, red flag in 2011.

Monetary policy is near useless, and arguably dangerous if applied aggressively, to try to battle anything other than a business cycle downturn, which this most certainly is not.


barkingbill's picture

if we are on the titanic, then i guess bernanke is there in the steering room nervously sweating as part of the ship starts to slide into the water...


team America really has some great players up at bat for them. obama the traitor, bernanke the nervous nelly...sarah dipstick palin and the bamboozled tea party. we got the republican neanderthals chomping at the bit waiting for their chance to sink the ship further. 

a few bright stars here and there, but mostly its darkness.

knukles's picture

Oh pshaw....

Let's not be too pessimistic.  There's a good amount of sun shining thorough the holes burnt in the ozone layer.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

While Summers is drinking sunny d and rum in the lifeboat!

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

RE reflation was a dumb move.  Can't believe it was justifiable to anyone.  Bernanke done.

Problem Is's picture

Bernanke is Just a Puppet Man...
Bernanke made that move to re-inflate RE to repair the balance sheets of his owners...

Jamie & Lloyd & the TBTFs...

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I'm your banker/I'm your daddy

I'm that Tiger/In the alley

I'm your Doctor/When in need

Have some Tarp/Some QE

Bam knows me/I'm his friend

Your main boy/Thick and thin

I'm you Puppetman/I'm your puppetman

Ain't I clean/Bad machine

Super bald/Super mean

Dealin' bonds/For the man

Super bald/Here I stand

Super flippant/Here I be

Secret stash/PPT

I'm your Puppetman/I'm your Puppetman

Dismal Scientist's picture

+1 Curtis would approve, I'm sure