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TRIN Index Goes Nuts, Second Highest Since Flash Crash, Fifth Highest In Recent History
Nobody would have thought June 29 would be a remarkable date - middle of summer, everyone watching the world cup, HFT computers out for their annual hard disk defrag and front running optimization, press release scanning robots out for their annual oil change, even hurricanes barely willing to form. Yet at the end of the day, June 29 ended up joining a list of such memorable dates as The Bear Stearns Crash, the May Flash Crash, the Lehman Crash, and the March 2009 666 crash: based on the TRIN/ARMS index, the NYSE index hit 5.88. It has been higher on just 4 other times before, specifically the four dates noted above. The indicator tracks up/down stocks divided by up/down volume on the NYSE -the higher the number, the greater the rush into decliners. Today's reading indicated that on the NYSE people could not get enough of selling, and in size. What is more worrisome is that in the last two months, we have seen an amplitude in the TRIN that has never occurred before: it has approached 0 (on low-volume melt up days), all the way to 12+ on 5/6 and nearly 6 today. This simply means that, as we have been claiming for a long time, there is increasingly less liquidity in the market. And we are talking real deep liquidity, not the churn BS that HFT algos do in Citi and now Tesla (thank you Goldman), and then, oops, drop all bids when something odd happens on 8,800 shares and the NYSE has to come in, bail out the market, and in the process derail the order flow of millions of shares of pent up supply and demand. A few more episodes like that and there will no demand and a lot of supply.
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Damn, you guys are good!
Only way I've been playing this market is cash or net short.
There's no way that stocks could go up 1000 points in an hour, just as there is no way tha_ ... ahhh, never mind.
Don't worry Obama's on the Job!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlV0pmsKWTw
Tyler,
Maybe I'm look'n at the wrong TRIN chart but mine says the recent +12 spike was on about June 6 not the flash crash of May 6?
So, time to not buy?
It's over...
I have a hard time believing that we could have a market crash in June. Maybe September or October. I would love to be proven wrong of course.
What's fun is that the TRIN is an oldtimer's index...been around a long time.
It's a true index, it doesn't lie.
5-day ARMS closed over 12 today.
And today was the 32nd out of 42 days with a panic -1000 TICK reading, and 19 -1250 readings.
Not that it really matters, just goes to show how may bots sell at once.
LOL...
Things are not looking so good. By the way what is the TRIN index? I am not a market professional. Love your blog. Great reporting.
The TRIN (ARMS) measures market vol
Rising = bears in control
Falling = bulls in control
Inverse of TICK if youd like to look that up too
I don't understand, what about the green shoots?
hahahahhahahahah :)
Covered in oil & Corexit.
The green stuff is coming out the market's mouth, as it pukes its guts out.
There's your green shoots!
Reading about HFT, I am reminded of the workplace where a young firebrand (e.g. Faye Dunaway from Network) is introduced and then proceeds to turn everything on its head only to have it all come crashing down. Why do Americans love novelty so much? What is wrong with the tried and true?
Monarchy was tried and true...I guess it's in our nature to try new things.
10-yr. futures about to clear to new highs for the move.
Looks like we'll be at 2.5% by morning.
COUPON MATURITYDATE CURRENT
PRICE/YIELD PRICE/YIELD
CHANGE TIME 3-Month 0.000 09/30/2010 0.14
/
.14 -0.004 / -.004 17:15 6-Month 0.000 12/30/2010 0.21
/
.21 0.007 / .007 17:15 12-Month 0.000 06/02/2011 0.26
/
.27 -0.002 / -.002 17:15 2-Year 0.625 06/30/2012 100-01+
/
.59 0-02 / -.031 17:15 3-Year 1.125 06/15/2013 100-15+
/
.96 0-04+ / -.048 17:15 5-Year 1.875 06/30/2015 100-16½
/
1.77 0-09 / -.059 17:15 7-Year 2.500 06/30/2017 100-16
/
2.42 0-12 / -.059 17:15 10-Year 3.500 05/15/2020 104-22
/
2.95 0-20 / -.072 17:15 30-Year 4.375 05/15/2040 107-24
/
3.93 1-08+ / -.069 17:15
10-yr. will eventually trade with a nought handle. If it's good enough for the Japanese, it's good enough for the U.S. of A.
NFW! 'Scuse me, TBT is calling on line 2.
A few more episodes like that and there will no demand and a lot of supply.
Additional episodes are completely unnecessary. Only chumps and bots are in this market now.
_______
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Gary Schilling just said that odds of a double are "50/50 and rising!"
Fast Money 5:38 EST
"Pretty much it for the World, so double dip, yeah!"
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Edit: Highly recommended, kick ass (most sentiment, makes ZH look like Bears!!)
If someone can post it I know people would love it.
Should we be concerned a triple bottom reading bears hope for the bulls???
"HFT computers out for their annual hard disk defrag and front running optimization"
Ah ah, hilarious!
I'd like to take an informal poll:
Do you think "helicopter" Ben Shalom will do QE v2.0?
Will this be net positive for stocks?
I'll play.
1) Yes. It's inevitable. In fact, it's already begun. Just who do you suppose is the mysterious "direct bidder"? Hmmm?
2) No. It will, however, send gold directly to 1650.
Yes, and possibly.
Yes.
Either after the mid-term elections, or before if there is a serious consumer confidence crisis (ie fires and rioting in Los Angeles)
Positive for stocks.
Everything is positive for stocks, forever. But there will be no buyers and the uptick will last 30 days. Then, continued erosion in employment numbers and election year exhaustion and a sense of defeat will knock the wheels right off. S&P 200, and then the long slide into nightmare.
Aren't you glad you asked?
1. Yes, but in some stealth form.
2. In nominal terms the market could go up, if miraculously inflation took hold, in real terms, nope.
Gonna be fun to watch the old ES tomorrow. I've never heard of a chart formation called a "triple-bottom". Though I have heard of the "Triple-Lindy".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FUxUiMyt70
Close below 1032 and we've got major, major issues.
This is the most bearish chart formation I have ever seen to this day.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=128320
We all know what happened after that.
[applause!]
[applause!]
[applause!]
[applause!]
Now that is a fucking classic! One of the funniest things I have seen in some time!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I had to come back for more.
Maybe I don't get out much but that is really fucking funny. Well done!
Definitely the funniest post of the day. +1
This might be top ZH post of the year.. or 2nd..
Most excellent bob_d!
I'll send it around to a couple of tech traders I know.
<golfclap>
Laughing, Laughing, Tears, Tears.
Bravo ;)
I just love the expressions on his face during the jump.
When there isn't a close up of his face it kinda looks like George Soros.
I wonder what the sound wave of that chart is saying?
hisssssss ... I am Zuul .... hissssss
Does this mean Ann Margaret is not coming?
Is she screaming?
Ginger is...
+1
Let's not forget Wall Street is one big messaging center to Capitol Hill. A big equity dump today sends a thumbs down message to the Critters on that $20 billion tax for finreg. Luckily for the banksters, freshman Brown came through today for the boyz to send it back to committee.
A bankrupt gubmint fights with insolvent banks for a meaty bone bought with stolen middle class money. It's come to this.
A bankrupt gubmint fights with insolvent banks for a meaty bone bought with stolen middle class money. It's come to this.
+1 wow, nicely put.
You have to have volume for a decent prolonged sell-off.
Volume has left for summer holiday and will return in October. Everyone knows that when volume returns from holiday it's going to be well rested and eager to ascend to new heights with the algo's on his buddy list.
Low probability of a substantive sell-off, sorry ZH Bilda-bears.
asshat,
Please define 'substantive'.
You think volume is coming back? Why?
We are all spectators now.
This is a popcorn market.
Actually today I made my first trade in months.
I sold my 1000 shares of SLV. I already have (less than that) physical silver, and I bought the SLV at $13.75 or so. Hey, took a profit, now no longer have to worry about that one last hanging issue (bad ETFs not having the goods).
But, that's it for a while re buying or selling stocks.
Looks like the golden cross on the S&P 500 from last July has turned into a bloody cross.
Wasn't today the last day for Fannie and Freddie on NYSE? I see though that the appetite for them hasn't faded with FNM up 2.86%...
BTW - I'm Re-financing my house and rentals in the near future and look set to save big dough. However, does anybody think how fucking negative these low rates will be for housing if/when rates ever go back up to a simple, normal 7 to 8%??? Folks are getting 30yr fixed at 4.5%. 15yr at under 4%...and every day lower still. These folks (and me) property values will only go down, down as these rates ultimately must reset higher. One more mispriced credit bubble that will only drag on housing prices and the economy in the future.
'Fraid so. But it you actually stay there for 20 to 30 years, you'll be fine.
Sorry to say, only doing a 7yr i/o on my house but taking out 15yr fixed on the rentals.
I went in w/ 20% equity down on the home and I was the sole breadwinner so we went 10yr i/o fixed rate knowing my wife was going back to work. She did and she and I are both still doing well. However, prop values are down and figure w/ an i/o it's like renting w/ tax advantage...if market goes up, I'll pay down principle, otherwise I'm not throwing good money after bad.
Am I a bad person?
That makes sense. Luckily we still have some equity left, but I think it's shrinking every month with our potential sale price. We should have sold last year. Oh well.
Have you had to drop your rents on the rentals?
We haven't had to lower rent but many folks we know have done just that...we are lucky our rents were fairly low to begin w/ and 2 renters are helped by mom and dad so they seem stable.
However, likely to lower if we have a vacancy.
Nothing new. We're becoming Japan.
we've had our first lost decade, working on number two.
DJI and SPX had been banging against 200 dma as a ceiling; R2000 and Nas100 had been banging against 200 dma as a floor. We asked who would win.
Today, R2000 and Nas100 busted through that floor. Busted through good.
I give it 2 weeks max before we crash through todays level.
this is real funni...got to listen to this guy whistle n show something nice,,hhaha,...sounds real laid back...
http://www.youtube.com/user/kdenninger#p/a/u/1/74hEslYb3ao
the oligarchy needs hft. their control is only due to the stock market. it falls and end game. think about the effects to be had on legislation at the federal reserve. Goldman knows this. The fed knows this, treasury knows this. do you think is is going to fall. a drop, but it aint going to be big.
if it happens there will be too many knock on effects. from fake bank valuations, etc.
Guys it is like the soviet union. these guys are only going to stop when game is all done and gone. As long as the last hints of remaining in power and control are there they will use it all to keep the markets up.
the same way they prevented it from falling back below 880 before they can do the same now as long as money is cheap enough from the fed.
Duh, why do you think they gave Goldman access to the discount window, SLP, etc. Remember they have the "program" to do it (and we don't hear about it anymore do we? )
Certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration. Thanks windows vps | cheap vps | cheap hosting | forex vps