TRIN Index Goes Nuts, Second Highest Since Flash Crash, Fifth Highest In Recent History
Nobody would have thought June 29 would be a remarkable date - middle of summer, everyone watching the world cup, HFT computers out for their annual hard disk defrag and front running optimization, press release scanning robots out for their annual oil change, even hurricanes barely willing to form. Yet at the end of the day, June 29 ended up joining a list of such memorable dates as The Bear Stearns Crash, the May Flash Crash, the Lehman Crash, and the March 2009 666 crash: based on the TRIN/ARMS index, the NYSE index hit 5.88. It has been higher on just 4 other times before, specifically the four dates noted above. The indicator tracks up/down stocks divided by up/down volume on the NYSE -the higher the number, the greater the rush into decliners. Today's reading indicated that on the NYSE people could not get enough of selling, and in size. What is more worrisome is that in the last two months, we have seen an amplitude in the TRIN that has never occurred before: it has approached 0 (on low-volume melt up days), all the way to 12+ on 5/6 and nearly 6 today. This simply means that, as we have been claiming for a long time, there is increasingly less liquidity in the market. And we are talking real deep liquidity, not the churn BS that HFT algos do in Citi and now Tesla (thank you Goldman), and then, oops, drop all bids when something odd happens on 8,800 shares and the NYSE has to come in, bail out the market, and in the process derail the order flow of millions of shares of pent up supply and demand. A few more episodes like that and there will no demand and a lot of supply.