TRIN Index Goes Nuts, Second Highest Since Flash Crash, Fifth Highest In Recent History

Tyler Durden's picture

Nobody would have thought June 29 would be a remarkable date - middle of summer, everyone watching the world cup, HFT computers out for their annual hard disk defrag and front running optimization, press release scanning robots out for their annual oil change, even hurricanes barely willing to form. Yet at the end of the day, June 29 ended up joining a list of such memorable dates as The Bear Stearns Crash, the May Flash Crash, the Lehman Crash, and the March 2009 666 crash: based on the TRIN/ARMS index, the NYSE index hit 5.88. It has been higher on just 4 other times before, specifically the four dates noted above. The indicator tracks up/down stocks divided by up/down volume on the NYSE -the higher the number, the greater the rush into decliners. Today's reading indicated that on the NYSE people could not get enough of selling, and in size. What is more worrisome is that in the last two months, we have seen an amplitude in the TRIN that has never occurred before: it has approached 0 (on low-volume melt up days), all the way to 12+ on 5/6 and nearly 6 today. This simply means that, as we have been claiming for a long time, there is increasingly less liquidity in the market. And we are talking real deep liquidity, not the churn BS that HFT algos do in Citi and now Tesla (thank you Goldman), and then, oops, drop all bids when something odd happens on 8,800 shares and the NYSE has to come in, bail out the market, and in the process derail the order flow of millions of shares of pent up supply and demand. A few more episodes like that and there will no demand and a lot of supply. 

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Muir's picture

Damn, you guys are good!

Only way I've been playing this market is cash or net short.

There's no way that stocks could go up 1000 points in an hour, just as there is no way tha_ ... ahhh, never mind.

decon's picture

Tyler,

Maybe I'm look'n at the wrong TRIN chart but mine says the recent +12 spike was on about June 6 not the flash crash of May 6?

mynhair's picture

So, time to not buy?

ATG's picture

It's over...

geminiRX's picture

I have a hard time believing that we could have a market crash in June. Maybe September or October. I would love to be proven wrong of course.

Turd Ferguson's picture

What's fun is that the TRIN is an oldtimer's index...been around a long time. 

Muir's picture

It's a true index, it doesn't lie.

 

RobotTrader's picture

5-day ARMS closed over 12 today.

And today was the 32nd out of 42 days with a panic -1000 TICK reading, and 19 -1250 readings.

Not that it really matters, just goes to show how may bots sell at once.

LOL...

mjaeger's picture

Things are not looking so good.  By the way what is the TRIN index? I am not a market professional.  Love your blog.  Great reporting. 

ZeroPower's picture

The TRIN (ARMS) measures market vol

Rising = bears in control

Falling = bulls in control

Inverse of TICK if youd like to look that up too

themosmitsos's picture

I don't understand, what about the green shoots?

hahahahhahahahah :)

KevinB's picture

The green stuff is coming out the market's mouth, as it pukes its guts out.

There's your green shoots!

Cursive's picture

Reading about HFT, I am reminded of the workplace where a young firebrand (e.g. Faye Dunaway from Network) is introduced and then proceeds to turn everything on its head only to have it all come crashing down.  Why do Americans love novelty so much?  What is wrong with the tried and true?

DocLogo's picture

Monarchy was tried and true...I guess it's in our nature to try new things.

RobotTrader's picture

10-yr. futures about to clear to new highs for the move.

Looks like we'll be at 2.5% by morning.

  COUPON MATURITY
DATE
CURRENT
PRICE/YIELD
PRICE/YIELD
CHANGE
TIME 3-Month 0.000 09/30/2010 0.14
/
.14
-0.004 / -.004 17:15 6-Month 0.000 12/30/2010 0.21
/
.21
0.007 / .007 17:15 12-Month 0.000 06/02/2011 0.26
/
.27
-0.002 / -.002 17:15 2-Year 0.625 06/30/2012 100-01+
/
.59
0-02 / -.031 17:15 3-Year 1.125 06/15/2013 100-15+
/
.96
0-04+ / -.048 17:15 5-Year 1.875 06/30/2015 100-16½
/
1.77
0-09 / -.059 17:15 7-Year 2.500 06/30/2017 100-16
/
2.42
0-12 / -.059 17:15 10-Year 3.500 05/15/2020 104-22
/
2.95
0-20 / -.072 17:15 30-Year 4.375 05/15/2040 107-24
/
3.93
1-08+ / -.069 17:15

 

4shzl's picture

10-yr. will eventually trade with a nought handle.  If it's good enough for the Japanese, it's good enough for the U.S. of A.

mynhair's picture

NFW!  'Scuse me, TBT is calling on line 2.

4shzl's picture

A few more episodes like that and there will no demand and a lot of supply.

Additional episodes are completely unnecessary.  Only chumps and bots are in this market now.

Muir's picture

_______

_______

 

Gary Schilling just said that odds of a double are "50/50 and rising!"

Fast Money 5:38 EST

 

"Pretty much it for the World, so double dip, yeah!"

 

__

___

Edit: Highly recommended, kick ass (most sentiment, makes ZH look like Bears!!)

If someone can post it I know people would love it.

rubearish10's picture

Should we be concerned a triple bottom reading bears hope for the bulls???

London Dude Trader's picture

"HFT computers out for their annual hard disk defrag and front running optimization"

Ah ah, hilarious!

bob_dabolina's picture

I'd like to take an informal poll:

Do you think "helicopter" Ben Shalom will do QE v2.0?

Will this be net positive for stocks?

Turd Ferguson's picture

I'll play.

1) Yes. It's inevitable. In fact, it's already begun. Just who do you suppose is the mysterious "direct bidder"? Hmmm?

2) No. It will, however, send gold directly to 1650.

cougar_w's picture

Yes.

Either after the mid-term elections, or before if there is a serious consumer confidence crisis (ie fires and rioting in Los Angeles)

Positive for stocks.

Everything is positive for stocks, forever. But there will be no buyers and the uptick will last 30 days. Then, continued erosion in employment numbers and election year exhaustion and a sense of defeat will knock the wheels right off. S&P 200, and then the long slide into nightmare.

Aren't you glad you asked?

Muir's picture

1. Yes, but in some stealth form.

2. In nominal terms the market could go up, if miraculously inflation took hold, in real terms, nope.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Gonna be fun to watch the old ES tomorrow. I've never heard of a chart formation called a "triple-bottom". Though I have heard of the "Triple-Lindy".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FUxUiMyt70

Close below 1032 and we've got major, major issues.

 

bob_dabolina's picture

This is the most bearish chart formation I have ever seen to this day.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=128320

We all know what happened after that.

Muir's picture

[applause!]

[applause!]

[applause!]

[applause!]

Turd Ferguson's picture

Now that is a fucking classic! One of the funniest things I have seen in some time!

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Turd Ferguson's picture

I had to come back for more.

Maybe I don't get out much but that is really fucking funny. Well done!

flaxpin's picture

Definitely the funniest post of the day.  +1

homersimpson's picture

This might be top ZH post of the year.. or 2nd..

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Most excellent bob_d!

I'll send it around to a couple of tech traders I know.

MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Laughing, Laughing, Tears, Tears.

TheGoodDoctor's picture

I just love the expressions on his face during the jump.

bob_dabolina's picture

When there isn't a close up of his face it kinda looks like George Soros.

Thoreau's picture

I wonder what the sound wave of that chart is saying?

cougar_w's picture

hisssssss ... I am Zuul .... hissssss

buzzsaw99's picture

Does this mean Ann Margaret is not coming?

Rainman's picture

Let's not forget Wall Street is one big messaging center to Capitol Hill. A big equity dump today sends a thumbs down message to the Critters on that $20 billion tax for finreg. Luckily for the banksters, freshman Brown came through today for the boyz to send it back to committee.

A bankrupt gubmint fights with insolvent banks for a meaty bone bought with stolen middle class money. It's come to this.

AccreditedEYE's picture

A bankrupt gubmint fights with insolvent banks for a meaty bone bought with stolen middle class money. It's come to this.

+1 wow, nicely put.

I need more asshats's picture

You have to have volume for a decent prolonged sell-off.

Volume has left for summer holiday and will return in October. Everyone knows that when volume returns from holiday it's going to be well rested and eager to ascend to new heights with the algo's on his buddy list.

Low probability of a substantive sell-off, sorry ZH Bilda-bears.

mynhair's picture

asshat,

Please define 'substantive'.