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Is Tropical Wave Invest 92L In Danger Of Becoming A Hurricane Or Reaching The Gulf Of Mexico?
Invest92L is the name of the latest headache for all those focusing on the Gulf oil spill effort: as is well-known, should a hurricane strike ground zero, or get in proximity to it, the strengthened currents will likely disperse the oil aggregation sufficiently to where it will impact a materially larger swath of land and make landfall potentially all the way across the entire eastern seaboard. We take a look at Jeff Masters blog at Wunderground.com on predictions of whether Invest 92 is a serious danger to the BP clean up effort.
From the Wunder blog:
The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a high (60% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The odds of development have increased since yesterday, as the storm has moved considerably to the northwest, away from the Equator. Now it can leverage the Earth's spin to a much greater degree to help get it get spinning. It is quite unusual for a tropical depression to form south of 8°N latitude.
I expect that 92L's best chance to become a tropical depression will come on Tuesday, and the storm could strengthen enough by Wednesday to be named Tropical Storm Alex. The farther south 92L stays, the better chance it has at survival. With the system's steady west-northwest movement this week, 92L will probably begin encountering hostile wind shear in excess of 20 knots by Wednesday, which should interfere with continued development. Several of our reliable models do develop 92L into a tropical storm with 40 - 55 mph winds, but all of the models foresee weakening by Thursday or Friday as 92L approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands and encounters high shear and dry air. I doubt 92L will be anything stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm when it moves through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday and Saturday, and it would be no surprise if wind shear has destroyed the storm by then. However, as usual, surprises can happen, and the GFS and the SHIPS model (which is based upon the GFS) do indicate that more modest levels of wind shear in the 15 - 20 mph range late this week may allow 92L to stay stronger than I'm expecting. Residents of the islands--particularly the northern Lesser Antilles--should follow the progress of 92L closely, and anticipate heavy rains and high winds moving through the islands as early as Thursday night.
So the good news is that the first major storm of the season will likely not be a probable threat. On the other hand, the NHC has predicted an abnormally active hurricane season (which likely means we will luck out and not see a single one) - those trading BP now also have to keep a close eye on weather developments above the Atlantic, as a major hurricane would only precipitate the adverse reaction by the already destroyed gulf economy, and force Obama to take even more unpredictable steps to punish the British company.
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92L, bitchez
Gaia bitchez
Tyler- This might be worth adding:
Iraq Central Bank Attacked:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=130257§ionid=351020201
/TF Hat on/
Gee, after the Families slammed Katrina into NO and the region as a capability test, does anyone think they are not going to go for the brass ring here?
/TF Hat off/
There have been enough warnings now that if those who can, should be prepared for a black swan cascade.
We shouldn't forget Katla and it's rumblings and the likelihood of its going off and creating massive problems in Europe and by association everyone else.
Sun spot activity is now hitting its maximum and has the capacity to cause considerable problems.
Now we have a sizeable part of the US economy being damaged by the oil spill, which could be greatly enlarged by a large hurricanes.
Gold, food, spare cash, life's essentials should be stock piled if only for a short term disruption to normal life.
Here's the Tropical Atlantic Water Vapor Loop that I like to keep my eye on:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
it will rain oil on new orleans LOL
NO has really set itself up energetically to be the target.
it will rain toxic dispersant all the way to Michigan. take deep breaths.
the Hispaniola path looks like the trajectory with the most promise.
Hell. I always mix oil and water together before pouring it on my salad. What's the big deal if hurricane force winds are doing it for me?
Yum!
Oil and water for salad? blech. Oil and Vinegar .. please.
(unrefined) Crude oil with Vinegar. Coming right up.
Who fucking cares...
It's not even a depression. Are you going to do this every time it looks like rain? It is a long storm season. Give it a rest.
Dilution and wide spreading of the oil onto would be an excellent solution to the problems posed by the slicks.
That would massively increase the reaction surface area in aqueous media, versus the current concentrated globby format of the oil.
On land, in summer time, holy evaporation batman! The heavier stuff would be a minor nuisance until its being washed away and biodegraded.
Bring it! (if only to enjoy the enviro fruit loops having a cow)
This is NOT oil, it is CRUDE oil and is extremely TOXIC, containing many dangerous elements, such as Benzene.
It could pollute water sources, crops, etc. and cause untold health problems.
The horror...the horror....
Big Joe Bastardi:
2010 Hurricane Season
Bastardi is calling for the 2010 hurricane season to be a top-10 active year, sharply contrasting last year's calm season.
"Hurricane season will start early and stay late this year," said Bastardi. "My biggest fear is that it goes beyond the nasty season I have forecasted since February. 2010 may be remembered as the hurricane season from Hades."
He predicts a total of 16-18 storms and an early start with one or two threats by early July. Fifteen storms could strike amid the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
He is forecasting seven storms to impact the United States, five of those being hurricanes. Two or three of those hurricanes will be major landfalls for the United States.
He adds that in the heart of the season, there will be a "bunching" of tracks in the area around the southwest Atlantic.
What if the hurricane just disperses the oil and absolves BP of any liability. To the moon baby!
So what if BP had not flooded the Gulf with oil so that the hurricane had no oil to disperse?
the most troubling aspect of the article is where the low formed - below 8degN. Not promising for a calm tropical storm season. Plus, this time of year the storms form in the warm gulf basin, not in the ITCZ as 92L has.
So again I say....WTF
No. Climatology and the fact that it is about to encounter massive shear will kill it.
BTW: Sunspots are not at a maximum they are at a historic minimum. Low sunspot activity cools the earth (known effect). If hurricane prediction fails to take this into account, they may overestimate the season. I expect a less troublesome season because of that. (I am NOT an expert, however).
AND: We don't need a hurricane to turn the gulf into a HUGE mess, a tropical storm will do the job nicely. Dispersing the oil will help degrade it, but the winds will drive it onto shore before that happens, and inland if there is a storm surge.
The real problem is that the collection will have to stop during the storm, sending it back up 50,000 bbl/d.
When you think BP, think Bhopal.
Anyone living within 100 miles of the Gulf who doesn't already have a level five respirator with spare cannisters better wake up and go shopping now. Be sure the respirators fit tightly - kids faces are a special problem. Vaseline helps seal the mask.
As an alternative keep SCUBA gear for every family member fully charged and ready to go, preferably with a few spare tanks - that will give you a few hours of drivetime to get ahead of the fumes.
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that you're not being followed. (H.L. Mencken)
Oh please. The oil spill is merely a co-promotion effort with MTV. They figure if enough people see animals covered in grease, it will remind them to watch "Jersey Shore".
+100. LOL
I stand corrected. An ocean floor collapse and a gigantic methane burp that makes its way to land couldn't possibly happen. Never mind about those respirators. Happy trails!
Whew, thanks, you had me worried for a minute there. I can go back to complaining about the lack of oysters and shrimp in the New Orleans restaurants lately.