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The Truth About Asia
The most recent report out of CLSA is out: easily the best and most comprehensive overview piece of all that is happening in Asia, yet providing extensive Western insight as well. Here is the link direct from CLSA's website.
It is not pretty:
hat tip Andy
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CSLA stand for what?
Czecho Slovak Liberation Army? Calgary Schmooze Loves Auchentoshan?
CLSA is a subsidiary of Credit Lyonnais.
Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia, or otherwise known as the best agency broker to focus on Asia amongst the institutional crowd. Brilliant research with consistent quality for many many years...
CLSA is in Honkers, ( Hong Kong)
https://www.clsa.com/index.php
CLSA have been providing Western insight for years as they know very well that Asia is an export-driven model---save only for India---and a Western consumption collapse (happening) will hurt their clients badly. Anyway, I never read any other institutional research with complete lack of BS... Gotta hand it to them.
Did you read the report before you commented, just out of curiousity?
I sent it to Tyler
Marc Faber has some association with them at one point...CLSA publishes books ott, Mark Faber's Tomorrows Gold was published by them...
If you are going to read some good analysis by a Brokerage Firm in the Asia Region, I like Jonathan Anderson at UBS. You may have to have an account at UBS HOng Kong, I have not checked to see it anyone can access his reports.
mpettis is good shaza...
Hello Whacked,
yes I have been Read Pettis for ages, chasing him all over the net as Cina closes down his sites! he seems to have a steady site now. Have you read the China Law Blog site ever, it is good and has a great take on RIO from a legal stance:
http://www.chinalawblog.com/2009/07/chinas_rio_tinto_arrests_every.html
How are things. I have gone to cash, maybe too early! AND I have some very sickly shorts on US markets!
Hot off the press from Kyrgystan:
"President Kurmanbek Bakiyev of Kyrgyzstan ..."A crisis is just a crisis, but in the long term we need China," he said. "After all, we can't afford to buy Italian shoes – we have to buy Chinese ones."
Hope springs eternal and practical!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5864677/Chinas-Silk-Road-ambitions-delayed-by-financial-crisis.html
Interested in the Australia part, plus referral to Jaws Closing.
Cannot see how the reduction in RBA rates will do anything, as the Banks are unable to pass on any lower rates to housing due to borrowing costs. Small business is propping up housing (by absorbing the higher rates) and will do so in the foreseeable future, this will allow the financial institutions to maintain higher profits and continue to slowly increase doubtful debt provisions. Squeezes small business which is a large part of the economy.
Housing MIP's are only now starting to come into vogue by Banks, as the moratorium on repo's has ended, so the market will be awash with MIP auctions which will reduce prices even further.
All in all Australia recession deferred by fulfilling past fixed contracts to China, so the crap is yet to hit the fan. Higher unemployment, reduced incomes and more housing sales does not bode well for Q4 and 2010. Thereafter consumer credit is the problem. Banks have recapitalised, but that may not be enough.
Whacked,
How do you find out Bank Capitlaisation in OZ ie NAB esp
Whacked,
I don't think out big 4 banks would follow a reduction in RBA rates, do you? It is quadopoly...what do they care!
By the way is RBA as non governmental as the FED, I'll be damned if I can figure that out!
Which central banks in Asia are governmental ? My bet is on those countries long term. Do you know ?
The Big 4 (note Shft/4 = $) have already indicated that any further rate reductions passed on will be minimal at best and in the meantime, loner term fixed interest rates have been slowly creeping up. The banks have margins to maintain and the prospect of increasing debt defaults to cover will put to rest any substantial rate cuts. The only way rates would be substantially cut would be for the RBA to offer up a large reduction in the order of .5% or more but is this likely? Going forward, depends on what forecast you want to believe.
much better color choice....BTW you need to fix the author stamp-post # as it still crowds out the initial portion of the comment...but keep the improvements coming!!
MS
How do you explain how the information was already know?
good finance articles
opinion articles
stock market blog
finance articles
finance opinions
Asia will be big pile of rumble by the time this is all over with. The people and their decoupling theories have no idea how the global financial credit system is setup.
I love hearing the idiots of the financial community that say the US needs to build and manufacture things. This would including the Jim Rogers and Peter Schiffs of the world. Which is why they have gotten huge haircuts for themselves and their clients over the last 2 years. All these theories work until the credit creation peaks, then when that happens you throw all the theories out the window because all those theories are based on an expanding global credit system.
Look people, the system is tapped out, it's like a tired greyhound at the track. You can continue to run the robot rabbit around the track all you want, when the dog is tired eventually he is just going to lay down in the middle the track and it doesn't matter if you put a fresh steak on the back of the robot rabbit.
The global system is setup to where when the US consumer is tapped out that is it, but it doesn't matter how it was setup you eventually are going to be tapped out and unable to fuel the exponential equation.
The gig is up, the sooner you realize this the better.
A passage from the book Supertrends of Future China:
"When done in a selfish way, the potential to enrich the few at the expense of the many is great, and there has been a history of what Western critics of big government would call “feeding at the trough,” if not outright stealing the trough, but as recently as 2007 China has had major graft and influence-peddling scandals which actually resulted in death penalties for those involved. In 2008, Chen Liangyu, the Shanghai CCP chief and former mayor of Shanghai, was sentenced to 18 years in prison for his role in a pension fund scandal."
A little harsh for Western tastes? Well, if you consider the actuarial value of a human life in America (roughly $5M?), then it's not hard to see people like Madoff as mass-murderers, and deal with them accordingly. One could also make a strong case for the shady dealings of the Wall Street gang amounting to a unprecedented crisis in human ecology; an economic pogrom.