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Turkey Factor

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Thu, 11/26/2009 - 21:05 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

well, Bruce, quite a prescient post!!!

edit:  i had meant to orignally add this B'berg headline:  Fujii Says Will Contact U.S., Europe on Currencies If Needed

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Fibozachi
Fibozachi's picture

Tryptophan works wonders for hopped-up JPM prop desks and runaway financial markets. 

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 13:30 | Link to Comment Szydkid
Szydkid's picture

Thanks Bruce!

I read Turkey-Factor after dinner and took out my long EUR/USD at 1.5120. I was looking to get out anyway so I could relax today but your article struck just the right chord.


Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:23 | Link to Comment covertress
covertress's picture

Re: Dubai - Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii tried to assure the market he was closely monitoring the situation and would "take appropriate steps if foreign exchange rates move abnormally." But that did little to ease investor worries.

Geez Bruce, you're spooky.


Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:03 | Link to Comment JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

Global stock markets tumbled Thursday on mounting anxiety over a debt default request by Dubai and tighter lending conditions in China, analysts said.

London lost 1.86 percent to 5,264.97 points in late morning trade but was suspended at about 1030 GMT owing to a technical issue. < har har har

The London Stock Exchange said it was investigating the "root cause" of the problem and would update investors when it had further information.

Elsewhere, Frankfurt dived 1.80 percent to 5,698.99 points and Paris plunged 1.89 percent to 3,737.06 points at the half-way stage.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 10:58 | Link to Comment assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

Man, it feels like we are nearing the 1,000 day mark (Black Swan reference...).  All hell seems to have broken loose because of the Dubai default.  In the meantime, our citizens/sheeple are oblivious to the worldwide banking/finance carnage that is starting to shape up outside of their dining rooms today. 

"I love it when a plan comes together," says Geitner.  "We should now be able to roll over a big chunk of our short term debt into longer maturities as the Flight To Quality trade kicks in."

In other news (my predictions for tomorrow):  Stock Markets, Gold, and Commodity Prices Plunge Worldwide,  Black Friday Excpected to Save Retailers,  Goldman Sachs Only Bank To Survive Negative Effects From Dubai Default.

Hey!  Why is the farmer who raised me standing next to that tree stump with a bloody axe?  Uh, something doesn't seem right...oh SHIT!!!!

"I don't want to be a turkey!" - Nassim Taleb


Thu, 11/26/2009 - 09:34 | Link to Comment covertress
covertress's picture

How's this for a headline?

China Losses Inevitable as Dollar Weakens


Mmmm, duck much more tasty than turkey...

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 10:11 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

saw that one last nite on b'berg just after reading Bruce's excellent piece.  I also saw that Vietnam devalued their currency (the dong?). 

thanks for the article Bruce.....very informative and i will watch the news today and tomorrow with this thought in mind.  looks like a race to the bottom with currencies and the protectionism gig will be heating up.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Perhaps it was my area but the grocery stores were NOT mobbed as usual yesterday.  I predict substantial activity on Black Froday - the wives are in charge and do not care about credit card limits, over-leverage, or the future of this country.  All micro to them, no macro. So off they will go to spend whatever it is they can spend.  It is the overall spending that will be down this year, as even wives run out of money.

This is not anti-women, this is a statement on the classic American paradigm of the Commercial Chiristmas and the level of buy-in by American families, however consitututed. It by no means fits all situations, but married men who read this are nodding, I assure you.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:13 | Link to Comment Winisk
Winisk's picture

If Mama ain't happy.  Nooobody is happy!

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:51 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Hi Ned,

Like your stuff, like having you around. I am the woman you were worried was going to post and be offended. I figured out what was going on with the economy in about 2004-5 and got us, as a couple, on a path of getting out of debt. We are totally debt free. I have been saving my money, and converting to PMs. I stocked up on food, using the logic that this is what Americans used to do and hey look at what happened in NO/Katrina. My hubbie got in the spirit and started on the self defense route. He got me to get trained and get a permit. Yesterday an opportunity to get silver at a good price opened up and he, who is totally uninterested in money, bought quite a bit.

I could share more. I just wanted to establish an identity with you before I said the hard stuff.

Guys, your wives are your partners. You can't let them just "spend." If you let them do this, you are half responsible for it. You can approach her in a way that is not bossy, but appeals to the idea that you two are in a relationship. You love her, she is your partner, and you need for her to understand that things are getting rough in the economy.

My hubbie and I made paying off the debts an opportunity to be romanitc and celebrate. He gave me a grand one Christmas to put towards my student loan I can't tell you how sweet I thought that was. He had nothing to do with running up that debt.

I was in a relationship where he spent and spent. Guess what? Even though he was a good guy, after 14 years of marriage, I had to get a divorce. I took the debt and got the house. Funny, when we divorced, he finally got a good job that pays almost as much as I make. He needed to not have me supporting him to realize his potential.

Why say all this? You can't bitch about her spending. You are being lazy in my ignorant, humble, opinion. You need to revitalize your relationship so that the finances are integrated into your love life. If she is really in touch with you, and you with her, the kind of, and I am going to say this guys, ABUSE, you describe is not possible. My hubby and I have seperate money, and even though my money is mine to do as I see fit, I never make a big purchase without consulting him because it still is about us, our resources. If I buy gold and later don't have the cash to deal with an emergency, it impacts him. I love him and wouldn't want to stick it to him like that.  And that happens because... drumroll... he spends time with me. He lets me know how important I am to him daily. He is always trying to figure out how to spend a lunch here, a stolen hour there, a movie, an evening.

I think if she is spending like that, you may need to work on the realtionship together. If she has a childhood issue to resolve (the only love she got was stuff from her parents, she needs stuff to feel loved, blah, blah) she needs your support as she goes through therapy and rehab. I see it as that extreme.

If we become dirt poor, if I have my husband, I'm good. Then again, I am not a huge spender to begin with, had a very poor background, everything I have now is gravy. Gravy is a luxury, I don't need it (but it is tasty).

I hope this did not come off as judgemental. I feel like I have been there and done that. My ex one day just announced to me that he consumed more than me and that was how it was. And there it was in my face. He did not care enough about me to have any sense of how that felt like a slam, right in my stomach. And if I were to say anything about the spending (which I didn't much) I was the one who was petty, tiny, narrow, and I was the one who was dysfunctional because of my background, and I was the one who did not understand that a couple's money belongs to the couple. I felt so alone, robbed, and to boot, I get to be the bad guy because I obviously was not generous nor did I have the capacity to love without conditions.

A real head trip I got caught in, eh?

All I really want to say is that if your wife is overspending, there is something going on, IT IS NOT NORMAL, IT IS NOT OKAY FOR HER TO TREAT YOU LIKE THAT. You are half responsible. If you are worried she will leave you if you don't let her spend, you have married a gold digger, not a partner.

Tightening up the finances can be a fun project, a way to be romantic with each other, and a gratifying way to mark forward progress in the relationship.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 08:38 | Link to Comment Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

I see the turkey factor as a nation of gobblers being sold the idea that prosperity can be financially engineered by an egotistic consumerist ideology; when, in fact, it has selfishly empowered those that contribute fractionally, at the expense of selfless culture and global wealth.     

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 06:54 | Link to Comment andrew123
andrew123's picture

Tyler, in line with the thoughts of merehuman, please tell me you are doing something to help the Senate understand how grossly irresponsible Bernanke has been.  Please tell me you are feeding them questions to ask at his reappointment hearing.  They are not smart enough to understand the postings here.  You have to dumb it down and send it directly to them.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 04:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/26/2009 - 04:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/26/2009 - 02:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/26/2009 - 02:07 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Winisk
Winisk's picture

Feel good about yourself.  You don't come to ZH unless your brain cells are seeking exercise.  I too toil away in construction after earning a B.Sc. many moons ago.  I feel more empowered now that I have valuable life skills that will be useful when the financial world decays.  Don't be intimidated by the jargon you read.  Trust your common sense. 

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 09:46 | Link to Comment novanglus
novanglus's picture

merehuman - the fact that you posted this indicates you are not the sheep.  The sheep don't care beyond discussing last night's TV programs.  I'm not in the financial services industry anymore - I got disgusted and chose to ply my trade (software) elsewhere.  Like you, I can't impact things directly.  What we can both do is read about what is going on, try to understand and talk to friends, family and neighbors to raise awareness and move the sheep to wake up.  It may not sound like much, but a couple hundred pissed off people WILL be heard!

And yes, I can hang and tape sheetrock (not so well or so fast), I can do my own carpentry, electrical, and plumbing.  That's how I worked my way through college and grad school.  That's where I learned how to work hard in crappy conditions.  Don't feel helpless, because you don't understand all the complex finance.  You don't need an advanced degree to understand that what is being done is wrong and theft.  We need as many voices as possible to get involved to stop this train wreck.  And NEVER expect the government and the whiz-kids to look out for your best interests, because they won't.  

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 07:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/26/2009 - 03:39 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/26/2009 - 01:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/26/2009 - 00:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/26/2009 - 00:44 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Hey Bruce,

I don't have the responsibilities you describe having, but I sort of feel like all of us regulars are obsessed. We keep looking for the edge, info that will help us know how this is going to go down, a sense of control, a way to be responsible or effective. We should all step away from the charts and the blogs (we can't really do anything any way) and have a happy holiday.

I just love gravy, with a tinge of cranberry, on my fork of dressing. What a lovely bite.

Happy Holidays.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 00:22 | Link to Comment Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Let's just all stop thinking about all this shit for a few days. It's taxing and tiring. Happy Thanksgiving to all my friends here.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 00:34 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Happy Thanksgiving Howard. I am grateful for a lot, including ZeroHedge.

I think Bruce makes good points but also see the merit of taking them up, after T-day!

Wed, 11/25/2009 - 23:59 | Link to Comment putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

Brother I have not been a fan of you in articles past, but this time it's sweet. Thank You


I need to know that you are with or against us?

Wed, 11/25/2009 - 23:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/26/2009 - 09:17 | Link to Comment covertress
covertress's picture

right click - view image

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 04:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 11/28/2009 - 02:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 11/25/2009 - 23:29 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

I love gold, but i'm ready for sentiment to be rebalanced even if i lose a few dollars of purchasing power in the process.

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