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Turkey Factor

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Thu, 11/26/2009 - 21:05 | 143524 deadhead
deadhead's picture

well, Bruce, quite a prescient post!!!

edit:  i had meant to orignally add this B'berg headline:  Fujii Says Will Contact U.S., Europe on Currencies If Needed

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 15:49 | 143337 Fibozachi
Fibozachi's picture

Tryptophan works wonders for hopped-up JPM prop desks and runaway financial markets. 

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 13:30 | 143202 Szydkid
Szydkid's picture


Thanks Bruce!

I read Turkey-Factor after dinner and took out my long EUR/USD at 1.5120. I was looking to get out anyway so I could relax today but your article struck just the right chord.

Steve

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:23 | 143129 covertress
covertress's picture

Re: Dubai - Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii tried to assure the market he was closely monitoring the situation and would "take appropriate steps if foreign exchange rates move abnormally." But that did little to ease investor worries.

Geez Bruce, you're spooky.

 

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:03 | 143077 JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

Global stock markets tumbled Thursday on mounting anxiety over a debt default request by Dubai and tighter lending conditions in China, analysts said.

London lost 1.86 percent to 5,264.97 points in late morning trade but was suspended at about 1030 GMT owing to a technical issue. < har har har

The London Stock Exchange said it was investigating the "root cause" of the problem and would update investors when it had further information.

Elsewhere, Frankfurt dived 1.80 percent to 5,698.99 points and Paris plunged 1.89 percent to 3,737.06 points at the half-way stage.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 10:58 | 143071 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

Man, it feels like we are nearing the 1,000 day mark (Black Swan reference...).  All hell seems to have broken loose because of the Dubai default.  In the meantime, our citizens/sheeple are oblivious to the worldwide banking/finance carnage that is starting to shape up outside of their dining rooms today. 

"I love it when a plan comes together," says Geitner.  "We should now be able to roll over a big chunk of our short term debt into longer maturities as the Flight To Quality trade kicks in."

In other news (my predictions for tomorrow):  Stock Markets, Gold, and Commodity Prices Plunge Worldwide,  Black Friday Excpected to Save Retailers,  Goldman Sachs Only Bank To Survive Negative Effects From Dubai Default.

Hey!  Why is the farmer who raised me standing next to that tree stump with a bloody axe?  Uh, something doesn't seem right...oh SHIT!!!!

"I don't want to be a turkey!" - Nassim Taleb

 

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 09:34 | 143037 covertress
covertress's picture

How's this for a headline?

China Losses Inevitable as Dollar Weakens

~

Mmmm, duck much more tasty than turkey...

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 10:11 | 143047 deadhead
deadhead's picture

saw that one last nite on b'berg just after reading Bruce's excellent piece.  I also saw that Vietnam devalued their currency (the dong?). 

thanks for the article Bruce.....very informative and i will watch the news today and tomorrow with this thought in mind.  looks like a race to the bottom with currencies and the protectionism gig will be heating up.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 09:13 | 143029 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Perhaps it was my area but the grocery stores were NOT mobbed as usual yesterday.  I predict substantial activity on Black Froday - the wives are in charge and do not care about credit card limits, over-leverage, or the future of this country.  All micro to them, no macro. So off they will go to spend whatever it is they can spend.  It is the overall spending that will be down this year, as even wives run out of money.

This is not anti-women, this is a statement on the classic American paradigm of the Commercial Chiristmas and the level of buy-in by American families, however consitututed. It by no means fits all situations, but married men who read this are nodding, I assure you.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:13 | 143125 Winisk
Winisk's picture

If Mama ain't happy.  Nooobody is happy!

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:51 | 143099 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Hi Ned,

Like your stuff, like having you around. I am the woman you were worried was going to post and be offended. I figured out what was going on with the economy in about 2004-5 and got us, as a couple, on a path of getting out of debt. We are totally debt free. I have been saving my money, and converting to PMs. I stocked up on food, using the logic that this is what Americans used to do and hey look at what happened in NO/Katrina. My hubbie got in the spirit and started on the self defense route. He got me to get trained and get a permit. Yesterday an opportunity to get silver at a good price opened up and he, who is totally uninterested in money, bought quite a bit.

I could share more. I just wanted to establish an identity with you before I said the hard stuff.

Guys, your wives are your partners. You can't let them just "spend." If you let them do this, you are half responsible for it. You can approach her in a way that is not bossy, but appeals to the idea that you two are in a relationship. You love her, she is your partner, and you need for her to understand that things are getting rough in the economy.

My hubbie and I made paying off the debts an opportunity to be romanitc and celebrate. He gave me a grand one Christmas to put towards my student loan I can't tell you how sweet I thought that was. He had nothing to do with running up that debt.

I was in a relationship where he spent and spent. Guess what? Even though he was a good guy, after 14 years of marriage, I had to get a divorce. I took the debt and got the house. Funny, when we divorced, he finally got a good job that pays almost as much as I make. He needed to not have me supporting him to realize his potential.

Why say all this? You can't bitch about her spending. You are being lazy in my ignorant, humble, opinion. You need to revitalize your relationship so that the finances are integrated into your love life. If she is really in touch with you, and you with her, the kind of, and I am going to say this guys, ABUSE, you describe is not possible. My hubby and I have seperate money, and even though my money is mine to do as I see fit, I never make a big purchase without consulting him because it still is about us, our resources. If I buy gold and later don't have the cash to deal with an emergency, it impacts him. I love him and wouldn't want to stick it to him like that.  And that happens because... drumroll... he spends time with me. He lets me know how important I am to him daily. He is always trying to figure out how to spend a lunch here, a stolen hour there, a movie, an evening.

I think if she is spending like that, you may need to work on the realtionship together. If she has a childhood issue to resolve (the only love she got was stuff from her parents, she needs stuff to feel loved, blah, blah) she needs your support as she goes through therapy and rehab. I see it as that extreme.

If we become dirt poor, if I have my husband, I'm good. Then again, I am not a huge spender to begin with, had a very poor background, everything I have now is gravy. Gravy is a luxury, I don't need it (but it is tasty).

I hope this did not come off as judgemental. I feel like I have been there and done that. My ex one day just announced to me that he consumed more than me and that was how it was. And there it was in my face. He did not care enough about me to have any sense of how that felt like a slam, right in my stomach. And if I were to say anything about the spending (which I didn't much) I was the one who was petty, tiny, narrow, and I was the one who was dysfunctional because of my background, and I was the one who did not understand that a couple's money belongs to the couple. I felt so alone, robbed, and to boot, I get to be the bad guy because I obviously was not generous nor did I have the capacity to love without conditions.

A real head trip I got caught in, eh?

All I really want to say is that if your wife is overspending, there is something going on, IT IS NOT NORMAL, IT IS NOT OKAY FOR HER TO TREAT YOU LIKE THAT. You are half responsible. If you are worried she will leave you if you don't let her spend, you have married a gold digger, not a partner.

Tightening up the finances can be a fun project, a way to be romantic with each other, and a gratifying way to mark forward progress in the relationship.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 08:38 | 143020 Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

I see the turkey factor as a nation of gobblers being sold the idea that prosperity can be financially engineered by an egotistic consumerist ideology; when, in fact, it has selfishly empowered those that contribute fractionally, at the expense of selfless culture and global wealth.     

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 06:54 | 143000 andrew123
andrew123's picture

Tyler, in line with the thoughts of merehuman, please tell me you are doing something to help the Senate understand how grossly irresponsible Bernanke has been.  Please tell me you are feeding them questions to ask at his reappointment hearing.  They are not smart enough to understand the postings here.  You have to dumb it down and send it directly to them.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 04:51 | 142984 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

No, they're all talking about Dubai. Get over yourself.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 04:44 | 142982 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

We are on your side. The difference between us and them is that we know that without you, there is no us. Stay around.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 02:54 | 142965 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Wanted: Artist

Perhaps this is a foolish idea, but as I will be in the US and DC for a short time in the near future, I would like to use the time wisely and engage in my right of protest. Problem is, I cannot draw. This is the sign I would like to carry daily in front of the Fed and Treasury:

Side One: A convertible helicopter passing for Santa's sleigh. Bernanke dressed as Santa, Geithner as his elf (he's almost tall enough for the job). Both are tossing bags of money down the chimneys of houses on whose sides are written names such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, AIG, BoA, Citibank. Oliphant-style would put two small people in the corner, one asking the other, "How's your Christmas?"

Side Two: words. "R.I.P. US Dollar"

"R.I.P. Capitalism"

"R.I.P. USA"

"Thanks Ben, Timmy"

I'm willing to carry it during office hours, or trade off with any other ZH'er who happens to also be in the area. It's a small thing, and perhaps useless, but it might just be good enough to draw the local media and get some coverage. And, of course, there is some psychic reward sticking it to Ben and Timmy.

Post here if you are interested and we'll arrange a way to meet, or if the site allows, we can connect through the site email.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 02:07 | 142951 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

dear people of zero hedge
You as a group are smart in the financial realm.
i never finished high school, been on my own since sixteen.
I am the sheep. We build your houses and you expect proper
workmanship. If we do not , we fail. Theres been time for nothing but work, duties and obligations. So , yes we are illinformed and have the expectation that government and the financial geewizz boys will do their jobs. We do not feel empowered or able to change a damn thing.
Besides the media lying to us wide open deosnt help.
If anyone is going to save this country its you smart people.
Can you hang and tape sheetrock? Well, i dont know finance!
Please help save our country,quit trading with the enemy!

merehuman

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:49 | 143095 Winisk
Winisk's picture

Feel good about yourself.  You don't come to ZH unless your brain cells are seeking exercise.  I too toil away in construction after earning a B.Sc. many moons ago.  I feel more empowered now that I have valuable life skills that will be useful when the financial world decays.  Don't be intimidated by the jargon you read.  Trust your common sense. 

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 09:46 | 143041 novanglus
novanglus's picture

merehuman - the fact that you posted this indicates you are not the sheep.  The sheep don't care beyond discussing last night's TV programs.  I'm not in the financial services industry anymore - I got disgusted and chose to ply my trade (software) elsewhere.  Like you, I can't impact things directly.  What we can both do is read about what is going on, try to understand and talk to friends, family and neighbors to raise awareness and move the sheep to wake up.  It may not sound like much, but a couple hundred pissed off people WILL be heard!

And yes, I can hang and tape sheetrock (not so well or so fast), I can do my own carpentry, electrical, and plumbing.  That's how I worked my way through college and grad school.  That's where I learned how to work hard in crappy conditions.  Don't feel helpless, because you don't understand all the complex finance.  You don't need an advanced degree to understand that what is being done is wrong and theft.  We need as many voices as possible to get involved to stop this train wreck.  And NEVER expect the government and the whiz-kids to look out for your best interests, because they won't.  

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 07:13 | 143007 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I've hung my share of 8-12 ft. water resistant sheetrock, if 'hung' is the proper word for putting 5/8 sheet on ceilings. Used at least 15 miles of tape, sanded it all, and breathed the gyp thru the mask. It's dirty work, not badly paid, and nowhere to spend a lifetime if you value your health.

Still, I was able to at least spend some time learning, albeit not to the level of sophistication that some posses on this board.

And it doesn't take a whole lot for folks like yourself to look at the likes of Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Chris Cox, Bob Rubin, Alan Greenspan and Lord Blankfein and his accomplices, Jamie Dimon, Dick Fuld, Stan O'neal, Ken Lewis, bill clinton, george bush, TheBamster and all the other perps too numerous to mention and realize that YOU have the power every year to change this utterly corrupt system of Royalty running off with all the wealth. It may be too late to reverse course, but it wouldn't hurt to penalize as many as you can while you can.

Simply vote out every incumbent in your district and at the state and national level. Eventually in several cycles you will get the message across that you are fed up to your gills with how they run the country for their own personal gain and view you as nothing but trash. It takes no more time to do that then you would otherwise spend.

There would eventually come a time, a tipping point, where anyone running for any office for solely personal gain at your expense would do well to find another way to con people out of their hard-earned sheetrock hanging money.

You can know this about finance: If the government is jerking around with markets, you will wind up the loser.

And if you think this debacle was caused by the action of free markets, capitalism, you can straighten out your thinking right away. There is nothing free or cpaitalistic about rewarding failure, about a market that rescues, nay, enriches the very people who failed and continues to leave the perps in charge of the vault.

It doesn't take real smart people to fix things, there aren't enough of them. Never happen. Smart people can point out to you the faults in the system that you can't figure out for yourself.

But average people have immense power if they would only open their eyes and use their native intelligence to change their lives for the better.

If you voted for an incumbent at anytime and plan on doing so again, you have just signed your own death warrant.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 03:39 | 142975 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

we're in the trenches doing exactly that every day. There are still lots of good people left in America. The majority in fact.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 01:54 | 142943 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

the kids will have some fun
when the bullie
is away

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 00:57 | 142927 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Limit down on equities and usd/jpy at 80 Friday morning and gold at 1400? I am watching the fx move in spasms now. This is different.

Did captcha just get easier? Marla, can we keep it at least at the level of quadratic equations?

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 00:44 | 142925 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Hey Bruce,

I don't have the responsibilities you describe having, but I sort of feel like all of us regulars are obsessed. We keep looking for the edge, info that will help us know how this is going to go down, a sense of control, a way to be responsible or effective. We should all step away from the charts and the blogs (we can't really do anything any way) and have a happy holiday.

I just love gravy, with a tinge of cranberry, on my fork of dressing. What a lovely bite.

Happy Holidays.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 00:22 | 142918 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Let's just all stop thinking about all this shit for a few days. It's taxing and tiring. Happy Thanksgiving to all my friends here.

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 00:34 | 142921 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Happy Thanksgiving Howard. I am grateful for a lot, including ZeroHedge.

I think Bruce makes good points but also see the merit of taking them up, after T-day!

Wed, 11/25/2009 - 23:59 | 142901 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

Brother I have not been a fan of you in articles past, but this time it's sweet. Thank You

 

I need to know that you are with or against us?

Wed, 11/25/2009 - 23:31 | 142885 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Dang, the 10 or 20 rightmost characters of each line are overlaid by the ZH info column. Bruce, pls be sure to put this on your blog as well as here?

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 09:17 | 143033 covertress
covertress's picture

right click - view image

Thu, 11/26/2009 - 04:52 | 142985 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It's a graphic image, not text, so the browser cannot wrap it to fit different enlargements.

Just do control-minus to zoom out and it will fit and all be visible.

Sat, 11/28/2009 - 02:45 | 144670 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Thanks!

Wed, 11/25/2009 - 23:29 | 142882 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

I love gold, but i'm ready for sentiment to be rebalanced even if i lose a few dollars of purchasing power in the process.

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