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Two Reports from CBO

Bruce Krasting's picture





 
The CBO published two reports, The Role of immigrants in the U.S. Labor Market and Social Security Disability Insurance: Participation Trends and Their Fiscal Implications. Nothing really knew in these reports but I found them interesting.

The piece on immigration glosses over the issue of illegal and legal
immigration. The data used comes from census and census has a policy:

They (respondents) are not asked about their legal immigration status.

The Department of Homeland Security
has a number of 10.8mm illegal immigrants currently. I doubt that that
DHS has a real handle on this number. They are just guessing. But
absent something better it is a decent number to use. Consider this
from CBO

I will go out on a limb and say that the number of people here illegally
from the group “Canada/Europe” is statistically small. Therefore the 11
million illegal aliens come from either Mexico/Central America or Asia.
Fully 50% of the people in that group. I have no statistical evidence
to support it, but it is my belief that the % from south of the border
is much larger than the % of Asians. For the purpose of coming up with a
number I use 60-40. I think that is understating the percentage. That
would imply there are 5mm illegal Mexicans in the US work force.

Before you race off to the comment section to rip me up for that
conclusion, read the CBO report. This is the CBO/DHS numbers, not mine.
15.5% of our work force is made up of non-residents. 7% of our workforce
is comprised of illegal aliens.

-The CBO marks the report “An Update”. I don’t believe that anything in D.C. is a coincidence. To me it is impossible to look at this report and not conclude, “Something is very wrong, and Mexico is central to the issue”.
The President is suing Arizona over its laws. ABC is doing a big
special. This topic is coming front and center. And the CBO releases a
report that highlights just how big this problem is? Nice timing Mr.
Elmendorf. Thank goodness we don’t have to worry about politics getting
in the way of analysis at the CBO.

-There was a time in our country when we needed immigration to meet
demand for labor and fuel economic growth. Today we have 15 million
unemployed and 24 million foreign workers. That ratio jumps out at you.
It is easy to conclude that the US is going to move in the policy
direction of much more restrictive immigration (legal/illegal). Over a
period of years this probably will be beneficial to the employment
numbers. But it would absolutely kill growth. Japan has had zero
immigration and zero population growth for twenty years. They also have
had zero economic growth. Just another of those signs that point our
future in Japan’s direction.

The other report on the Social Security DI fund is a historical review
of the program and a discussion of the financial status. The DI fund is a
well-known shipwreck waiting to happen. The CBO says it crashes in 2018
based on very rosy economic assumptions. I think the actual sinking of
the DI will be in 2016. Any shortfalls have to be eaten by the SS
retirement fund. So this needs to be fixed or the retirees have to take a
hit.

I read the report as a plea for help. DI paid out $120b in 2009.
Nearly 1% of GDP. There are 10 million people getting benefits. It is a
big deal and a fix must be found. It must be found quickly. It can’t
wait until 2018. It will be impossible to fix it then, we have to do
something now.
Yada, yada.

Here is a graph of expenditures. Note it doubled from $60b in 2000 to $120b in 2009. A 100% increase in just ten years.

What is the cause of this explosive trend in disability payments?
According to the CBO the answer is simple. Women are at fault on this
one.

The
increased number of women who are employed have resulted in more
disabled beneficiaries and a rise in outlays for the DI program.

For the heck of it I looked up the 2000 SSTF projections for the DI
fund. Their forecast was correct to a fraction. In other words we have
know that the DI fund would blowup for at least the last ten years.
Nothing was done about it. It has been politically too easy to just push
this type of problem off to another decade. Unfortunately we don’t have
another decade left to deal with these mega problems. They are all just
a few years away.

 

 


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cheap uggs for sale's picture

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Tue, 07/27/2010 - 07:34 | Link to Comment Ted K
Ted K's picture

Bruce

I wonder if you have seen these numbers???  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/25/AR201007...  

I also wonder if we will see these numbers in the ABC report since they will probably not "jive" with the impression and hysteria they wish to invoke in their brainwashing program.  The truth is Republican fatcats love immigrants because they will mow their lawns, babysit their children, cook, and work in stinky places like meat packing plants for nearly nothing, and if you're a fatcat Republican you have to love that.  Although the paranoia of immigrants becomes quite useful if you can convince the illiterates watching and listening to Glen Beck that Democrats are weak on the issue.  As for me Bruce, I can read above a 5th grade level, and you're gonna have to try a little bit harder Buddy.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 08:26 | Link to Comment Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

I quit reading when I saw 'fatcat republican'. Partisan idiots like you are how we got in this mess.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 05:56 | Link to Comment ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

Come on Bruce, Bush put all his domestic capital on SS reform in 2005, and the Democrat party made sure it was DOA.  Not only did the Democrats create this SS boondogle, they have also consistently made any reform impossible other than increasing benefits and taxes in the hope that it would create an ever increasing pool of voters dependent on them and their largesse.  Call it Democrat patronage for millions of voting seniors.  This is their same logic for Obamacare, Medicare, and all their other benefit programs.

Just call it enslavement of the productive class by an alliance of parasites, minorities, and limosine liberals.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 05:47 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

It is already too late as the Baby Boomers are hitting the system at a grand scale yet the till in 'empty'.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 04:16 | Link to Comment John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Seems like the solution to the DI problem might be to offer financial rewards to firms/individuals who can undercover and document the rampant fraud that exists.  An example was a video I recently viewed on the local news showing a "disabled" SS person working on his boat.  The amount of fraud in entitlement programs has to be huge.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 03:03 | Link to Comment Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Social Security and Medicare taxes for H-1B Visa workers.....

H1B employees have to pay Social Security and Medicare taxes as part of their payroll. Like US citizens, they are eligible to receive Social Security benefits even if they leave the United States, provided they have paid Social Security benefits for at least 10 years. Further, the US has bilateral agreements with several countries to ensure that the time paid into the US Social Security system, even if it is less than 10 years, is taken into account in the foreign country's comparable system and vice versa.

 

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 08:05 | Link to Comment Everyman
Everyman's picture

If they are paid on a 1099 or cash then that money is NEVER collected.  Additionally, an American Citizen would have to contribute the 40 quaters (10 years) to get the benefit, HOWEVER, the no-citizens and "undocumented" and H1-B visa holders only have to contribute **18 Quarters*** to get full benefits.  SOmething You obviously did not know about.

That is why people hire these workers.

 

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