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Two Takes On The ADP Number

Tyler Durden's picture


The following two takes on this morning's ADP number are from two opposites: Goldman, with its transition to a permabull, and Knight Capital, with its far more balanced outlook on the economy.

From Knight's Brian Yelvington:

ADP, the best (and really only) predictor of Friday’s monthly jobs data, printed at a very high 297K gain for December versus expectations of a 100K gain.  We have noted before that “best” here is a pretty low bar and the ADP report should be considered in its own right, and not just a forward look at the official numbers.  ADP overestimated November’s jobs data (by 43K), but underestimated the prior 6 months (average difference of 55K).
That being said, the 297K print is hard to argue with.  270K of the jobs were in the services sector, so this raises expectations for the ISM Non-Manufacturing number due out at 10AM.  We will closely watch this number for confirmation of the ADP data, but there is historically not a huge basis to argue with the number.  Even adjusting for holidays and noting the service bias, it is not out of line.  Service jobs accounted for about 97% of ADP December job gains and 84% of all ADP prints over the past five years.  A confirming ISM number at 10AM will significantly raise expectations and estimates for Friday. 

And from Goldman:

1. The monthly ADP employment report surprised sharply to the upside in December, posting a gain of 297,000 jobs versus consensus expectations of 100,000. This is the best ADP reading currently on record (the official data go back to January 2001, though the series has only been released publicly since 2006). Notably, the initial report for June 2006-since revised-was +368k, which substantially overstated the comparable BLS first print of +90k.

2. The bulk of the December 2010 surprise came from small- and medium-sized service sector firms (+120k and +123k respectively, up from +48k and +30k in November). Goods sector employment growth was still soft, with manufacturing up 23,000 (vs +15k in November) and construction up 6,000 (vs. +10k in November). ADP's estimate of financial sector employment was down 6,000, versus a gain of 2,000 in November.

3. The ADP data have a special quirk that could have affected today's report. ADP records payrolls based on the number of names on the payroll-regardless of how many hours they work during the week. Not every firm immediately "cleans" payrolls when an employee quits or is laid off; in some cases, it can take until the end of the year for the payroll list to be officially updated. This creates a lot of volatility in the December report in particular. In theory, one would expect greater purging in payrolls in bad years (like 2008 and 2009) and less in relatively better years (2010 was hardly spectacular, but at least payrolls were up on the year). Of course, the official report attempts to adjust for this behavior, but if 2010 saw relatively less purging than the sample period, it's possible some of today's improvement could be the result of this data quirk rather than genuine acceleration. Given the potential for an overstatement, we have put a -1 judgmental adjustment on our US-MAP reading, which still records a significant upside surprise.

4. Luckily, we will have a useful cross-check of the ADP report later on this morning. If service-sector employment really is accelerating sharply, we'd expect to see the employment index of the ISM non-manufacturing survey (which was 52.7 last month) post a meaningful increase. This report will be released at 10am and will help us gauge how much weight to put on the very strong ADP report.


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Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:08 | 848963 Quinvarius
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Service jobs are pure money velocity with no production to back them.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:03 | 849161 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture


The ISM number is just out, and it's a strong uptick - so I guess this validates the analysis of the "permabull" Goldman guy.


Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:18 | 849198 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

as long as this continues I am happy (sorry everyone in PMs). Gives me a chance to get in on this party. I want SLV at US25

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:01 | 849320 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture


Wed, 01/05/2011 - 15:27 | 850037 Panafrican Funk...
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The thing about the ADP numbers is that they don't give the full picture, ie., you have to look at total employed AND earnings of those employed people.  Where would we find such information?

Tables from Employment and Earnings Historical

Readily available.  Simply multiply the number of employees by the average weekly earnings, and voila, you have a good barometer of economic effect of employment on the economy.  Yes, I do realize that the numbers are still monkey'ed with, but looking at it through this lens at least gives you a relative means of valuation over time.  Where it gets particularly interesting is when you then bump this up against overall population data.  It becomes easy to see why even a 297K print at a constant weekly average wage isn't even treading water.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:08 | 848965 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

yup. all those Christmas retail jobs....they really move an economy.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:14 | 848990 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Yesterday there were headlines that Family Dollar will hire 6000. These are the types of jobs we create now; part time and low wage. Not the sort that allow people to buy into the stock ponzi or the high-end housing market.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:21 | 849020 Hollow_Point
Hollow_Point's picture

Todays news is FDO missed their bottom line, just squeaked by their top line and estimates for the 2nd qtr were lower...

So much for growth.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:35 | 849067 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Yep, heigher freight costs and gross margin compression despite a 6.9% comp is a real bitch.


Stock off 8%.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:27 | 849230 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

interesting about the Christmas jobs, was in NYC for my first visit over the thanksgiving weekend and Black Friday saw more staff in many stores than customers........ that must mean everything is ok if businesses can afford surplus staff right?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:03 | 849339 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Have you been in one of these type stores,its pathetic.

Middle(formerly)class folks working as slaves for a lousy $8.00.

Barely eating and keeping roof over their heads.

Everything is a $1.00, and all the shit is Chinese.

The rage I feel when I see this is almost sickening.

Sad drawn faces, from 20-65yrs old, doing jobs illegals would not do 2 yrs ago.

Yet, Wall St, and the bankstas still getting huge bonus checks,I may hurl.

This is in a city with a per capita income of around 100k, and less than 17% of the pop is 50yrs old.

When someone says, WELL at least they have a JOB!, its all I can do to not deck them.These are not jobs, this is slave labor.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:35 | 849070 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Unwashed, heavy sarc and spot on.

here in India, everyone who looks at me with shining eyes and says how amazing India's Shining story is, I point out that the "surging" lower-middle class is mostly employed in:

1. Retail

2. Delivery

3. Call-Centers

4. Low-end construction (lots of it)

5... same vein. 

Some of them give me the old MaryJane argument, that these are gateway jobs.

Sure they are, gateway to Serfdom.


Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:38 | 849267 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

But, to be fair, theyre employed correct? Im assuming its better than 1) unemployment or 2) rural living on a farm?

The main shining story as you put it of Indian and China is the new jobs being created to help fund the middle class. Yes its lower classes taking the jobs, but so what. Someone has to... do you not subscribe to this idea?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:11 | 848976 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Looks like ADP got a massage with a "happy ending"

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:11 | 848980 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

You sure you didn't mix up the attributions?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:17 | 849009 SayTabserb
SayTabserb's picture

That's what I was thinking. No way Goldman would knock the report because someone forgot to "purge."

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:14 | 848986 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Theres no real way to see this too bearishly. Firms needed more employees (probs part time?) to work the winter/Christmas time shifts.

Thats it.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:13 | 848988 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture


cheerleading at its best

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:15 | 848993 Skeptical_10016
Skeptical_10016's picture

my money is with the former comment (mr yelvington) vs. the latter (newly found uber-bull GS)........with that being said, bouncing around off the bottom is pretty volatile and we are by no means experiencing "blowout" growth.........when ~20% of the workforce is un(der) employed + ~ 250k jobs required just to keep pace with demographics.........well these numbers (ADP) merely keep the unemployment rate from increasing.......nonetheless, we cannot lose sight of the current disconnect b/w the markets (RISK ON) vs. the real econ.......nonetheless, I don't see how the fed can fuel this rally for a sustained period of time as the initial conditions for the market (high P/E) necessitate that any earnings growth will most likely be offset by the P/E effect.........

~ Bucky Badger

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:16 | 849004 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

ADP report is the most worthless indicator out there (minus all indicators in this free money environment).  It is about as good as the U Mich Consumer Confidence.


OT: Dollar gets stronger, and oil goes up?!? I wonder how much in losses the Fed took on their recent 10 and 30 purchases.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:20 | 849022 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The market has spoken.

The recovery is here.

No more need to own gold as a safe haven.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:23 | 849035 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

It must be hard to drive with your face pressed up against the glass. Life is confusing extrapolating every tick to infinity? LOL...

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:56 | 849132 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I know he can get it under 1380 but can he keep it under 1380.

I'm not argueing that. If i were argueing that I'd be wrong.

I know he can get it under 1380 but can he keep it under 1380.

I'm not arugeing that.

I know he can get it under 1380 but can he keep it under 1380.

Welcome to joe versus the volcano week.

Ah the problems with illusory paper smash downs.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:36 | 849038 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Yes, This is what the Market sees. So let it be written. So let it be done. Rally on, So sayeth Ramses II

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:26 | 849041 CU1981
CU1981's picture

I'm hoping for $1250 ...


We can all dream can't we ? Or is that forbidden in central planning ?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:30 | 849236 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

that level makes TA sense to me too however, this is a strange market if it can be called that anymore.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:29 | 849238 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

that level makes TA sense to me too however, this is a strange market if it can be called that anymore.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:28 | 849049 docj
docj's picture

The recovery is here.

Swell.  So does that mean Uncle Sugar will stop spending 12% of GDP in deficit?  And that Benron can call-off the QE-dogs?

Or is "recovery" just another word for "Ponzi" in your lexicon?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:44 | 849095 Kina
Kina's picture

Market? There is no fucking market, you would have to be fairly thick to think there is a market and doubly thick to believe there is a recovery afoot. Honestly, sometimes a lot of trash comes from you.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 13:58 | 849771 Hulk
Hulk's picture

"The recovery is here"

That would explain the $150 Billion monthly deficit...    Got Gold?





Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:24 | 849033 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

USD strength returns yet again...

As noted many times, it keeps occurring because USD larger time frames continue to give bullish warnings. And so I remain US Dollar bullish and Euro etc. bearish.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:23 | 849036 e_u_r_o
e_u_r_o's picture

retarded euro has to start falling aswell obviously when gold falls thus making gold rise instead in euros. GODDAMNIT

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:08 | 849167 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

What are you talking about. You are simply seeing a "movement" of real physical gold and  bullshit lying paper gold between the central banks. Gold determines the value of every currency relative to every other currency. To weaken a currency you simply "move" gold from one currency to all the other currencys. To strengthen a currency you move gold from the other currencies into yours. The problem is these are all in allocated accounts and they are complete bullshit. Because the same cheating lying theiving bastards that ran the london gold pool run this one.

Price of gold in dollars 1366

Price of gold in euros 1038

ratio 1366/1038= 1.316

eur/usd = 1.324.

They usually match much closer. This means there will be a spike in price of gold in euro's coming at pm fix. Or gold is heading to 1290ish territory in dollars. There is a significant european US event occuring. Perhaps it's something to do with their budgets for next year.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:30 | 849050 Salinger
Salinger's picture

I can't wait to see how Rosie will spin this - I wonder when his performance review is scheduled? Hopefully for him it was before December.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:28 | 849051 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Okay, I'm thrilled the US is moving

heavily to part time service jobs.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:32 | 849056 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Exactly, all those Mom and Pops are now hiring another cashier, while reducing the hours for the other workers, for a net gain of ZERO!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:34 | 849065 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Let's all celebrate the permanently lower

standard of living. YAY!!!!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:09 | 849171 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

That's what happens when you confer divine right onto businesses.

Less jobs, more lording.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:35 | 849063 onlymyopinion
onlymyopinion's picture

todays report seems to make sense....didn't we just have one of the best holiday shopping seasons?  contrary to "popular" belief, QE2 is working-----creating jobs and lifting equities.  Ben Bernanke isn't as dumb as many appear to think he is.  I will continue to ride the trend (up for 20 months now) until it changes.  I've seen too many try to go against Bernanke only to see their accounts blow up.  It's still a bull and will be a bull until it isn't.


Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:49 | 849106 bonddude
bonddude's picture

You want that burger medium rare mac?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:18 | 849379 DosZap
DosZap's picture


I predicted this shit prior to the holidays.

On this site.Americans are stupid children for the most part.

They pulled in their horns, paid off debt, and lived modestly(for Americans) for 2yrs.

ONCE the CC's and the family finances of those employed starting looking bearable, it was TIME to treat ourselves.

Meaning the ignorant mofos, went and spent themselves back into a hole.


Americans cannot STAY on any type of budget for over 24mos without losing their minds.They WILL spend..............guaranteed.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 13:58 | 849766 Apocalicious
Apocalicious's picture

Which is why a deflationary spiral has a 0% probability in America, the land of materialism...

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:48 | 849100 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

QE will work...  until it doesn't.  It is still a finite planet with finite resources.  Cheap energy and cheap labor drive economies, not cheap dollars.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:50 | 849114 bonddude
bonddude's picture

Well said.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:58 | 849101 nopat
nopat's picture

I'd be careful shitting all over a spike in the jobs number from the services sector.  Let me be clear, I don't doubt there's a lot of part-time retail and headcount bleed-out baked in.  I also don't doubt there's probably some double-counting, as people take part-time holiday jobs in addition to their full-time employment, or as people switched employers (which I have seen quite a bit).  We're also seeing quite a bit of private-sector activity with developing/implementing major deployments, which will heavily weigh in on the services side of the jobs report, especially as consulting firms are increasingly handling most of the heavy lifting.  This coincides (imo confirmed) with the steel numbers we've been seeing.

The issues then become:

  1. How much of this temp work will translate into full-time employment?
  2. Will the debt markets cooperate long enough to allow deployment completion and give companies enough time to turn capital spend into revenue generation?
  3. Is this the next turn of the US economy (like we saw at the end of the 80s), or is this all too little, too late/too soon?

I don't know.  Historically speaking, whatever's going to dominate the next 10 years should be just big enough now that everyone will come out of the woodwork and say in hindsight the "called it".

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:01 | 849149 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

  How much of this temp work will translate into full-time employment?

None. You can't lord over people as effectively as chaining together temporary contracts.




Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:24 | 849223 nopat
nopat's picture

Agreed, but, it's similar to what we saw at the start of similar technological booms and the 20-year cycles.  Colleges, research firms, and individual inventors build on existing infrastructure; someone figures out a way to monetize it; companies wanting to cash in but not fully commit hire temp firms/consultants; the trend gains traction, companies start using "synergy" a lot and bring these folks in-house; saturation leads to a burst, but not before making a lot of people impossibly wealthy; lack of sector-specific investment opportunities result in a lot of cash flooding into the rest of the economy; financial products get savvy, crash, and money gets pulled until the "next big thing" appears.  Wash, rinse, repeat.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:43 | 849276 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Or how about just kill the whole temp worker idea?  The ones that want it have no problem either way; the ones that don't want it are the ones that do.

Not everyone cares to be lorded over 4 months at a time. 

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:16 | 849380 Pez
Pez's picture

Doesn't matter these jobs are bound for "happy to have temp gateway jobs" in China, India... anywhere that's close to shipping ports. How many iPads are made in the USA?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 17:48 | 850491 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Not enough.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:33 | 849184 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

1) Nil. These are not "gateway" positions.

2) Debt markets may cooperate, but companies will frankly remain dearth to hire full-time employees ( with attendent full-time benefits ).

3) Neither. This number will very likely be born out an anomalous figure, with give back to follow in later months.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 07:06 | 851898 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Then make the benefits undodgeable by part-time/temporary work.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:48 | 849104 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Did anybody see the guy from ADP on CNBC?  He basically said the number did look odd to him because there were 4 or 5 tweaks that maybe didn't add up right.


5 week period vs usual 4, new acctg practice, etc...

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:49 | 849107 Kina
Kina's picture

contrary to "popular" belief, QE2 is working-----creating jobs and lifting equities.


One ADP number means QE2 is creating jobs?


Ben Bernanke isn't as dumb as many appear to think he is.

Yep, maybe Bernanke isn't dumb, maybe he isn't stuck in his own private forest, if so then it means we have most certainly misinterpreted what it is he is really trying to do.


Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:50 | 849111 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Like I always say to my colleagues in the Biotech sector.  What good will all those drugs (to cure every disease) be when there isn't enough food or fresh water to go around.  Personally, I think the planet good use a good plague right about now.  Based on the market's behavior lately, we would see a huge rally!

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:55 | 849133 bonddude
bonddude's picture

Central planning bringing that to a country near you...soon.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:16 | 849192 sabra1
sabra1's picture

maybe you guys can figure out which chemicals the fed is using to kill all those birds and fish?

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:20 | 849394 Pez
Pez's picture

Maybe you guys in bio-tech should come up with an andidote for Corexit and call it Incorexit. Where you cure people by killing them. I swear I'm living in Orwell's "1984".

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:50 | 849116 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Look at the fight to try to push up the REITs today...LMFAO.

Look at the IYR and RMZ just jam back to the parity line and then back up...then back down...then back up...then back to parity.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:01 | 849156 Salinger
Salinger's picture

there was a lot of bashing of ECRI a couple of months ago here on ZH - looks to me like Laks was ahead of the curve (again)

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:06 | 849163 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

ISM Non-Manuf. Employment component down from 52,7 to 50,5.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:21 | 849214 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

So the 'cross-check' of the ADP numbers failed.

And I'm still not convinced that improving unemployment numbers will tell the whole story. Job quality will be a huge factor in a real recovery. I have a buddy was doing project mgmt for a Fortune 100 company ($90K/year). Job got offshored. He's now a clerk in a liquor store at minimum wage. Not good.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:08 | 849359 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Job quality will be a huge factor in a real recovery.


Couldn't say it better myself. If what You get is a part time job paying 20k a year then something must give. Or alternatively You can keep buying cars and what not with no money down and 0% interest but it'll just postpone the inevitable adjustment to the reality that what You make is still 20k a year.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:28 | 849422 Pez
Pez's picture

Why do you think there was NO support for the 99ers on either side. When you find out that there's 5 million past the 99 weeks and growing by 250K/mo. There will be TROUBLE. My guess will see a big upswing in crime, if you haven't already. Most of them will come when the cops are layed off.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:51 | 849500 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Of course, cheap prison labor is booming industry. Rising crime rates may be part of the master plan to  keep them jails full of 'captive laborers'. All part of an Incarceration Prosperity Plan.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:10 | 849173 pat53
pat53's picture

Bye-bye bears, time to "spit some blood"  LOL

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:19 | 849208 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Let me mix the stock market with patriotism.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:19 | 849204 Kina
Kina's picture

The US economy will be bouncing along the bottom of the ocean for some time yet. There wil be lumps and troughs but no steady incline.

When somebody tells me housing prices have stabalised and trending up, and home construction picking up, then I will consider a nascent recovery is on the way.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:21 | 849209 David99
David99's picture

This Casino has nothing to do with any data, any results, any fundamentals, any technicals, any good / bad figures.

This Casino is run by fraud FED through 18 PD's (Fraud Street gang) and depends on the size of daily POMO's (Bigger is the loot, higher it goes)

Rest all is blah blah blah and waste of time, good for nothing

Very Simple

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 14:22 | 849857 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture


Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:25 | 849221 ZEITGEIST
ZEITGEIST's picture

a replay of last year..remember when the jobs report came out great..and gold dropped from 1225 to 1060 in a few days..people never learn..they are going to lie to you till the day the banks close...up to you on how you want to be rememebered by your the guy who loved the lie and stayed in the Wall Street Game..and got torched..or the guy who saw the bullshit for what it was..and saved his family from utter dispair....44 million on food stamps..23% unemployment..foreclosures at all time high...bankruptcies at all time high..deficit growing leaps and bounds by the day..wall street crimes growing by the day....munis about to implode...INFLATION ABOUT TO decide.....and then look your kid in the face and tell him..IT WAS MSM FAULT WHY WE HAVE NO FOOD OR HOME...

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:29 | 849239 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

My now passed Grandfather lived through the Great Depression and said the same thing.  They lied like hell until the very day of the 'bank holiday' and that all of the spin was entirely positive until then.  He never trusted banks or the government again. 

You're right.  They are doing the same shit again.

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:38 | 849261 99er
Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:33 | 849438 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

ADP, you MUST be joking or worse.


Anyone who has worked on the inside of that boob infested clown car knows that they are lucky to get most of the payroll out on time.


They are not dishonest, just stupid.



Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:30 | 849428 voltaic
voltaic's picture

Another piece of job info that seems to go against the ADP number is that online job openings actually fell in December: Labor demand dips 9,400 in December and continues a lackluster trend through 2nd half of 2010 

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 13:15 | 849589 Jerry Maguire
Jerry Maguire's picture

There's a third take here:

Wed, 01/05/2011 - 14:26 | 849865 One_Eyed_Pony
One_Eyed_Pony's picture

The last 90 days have been such a HUGE SUCCESS... next year the Government will spend as much deficit spending and the XMAS holiday shopping season will start July 4th!


Gotta love all those Public SELF-Service and Private Minimum wage Service jobs... a wonderful match to the Zero Inflation #'s BS propaganda by the BLS and Federal Reserve.



Wed, 01/05/2011 - 14:27 | 849869 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Just an observation - we've had a wave of 'baby boomers' retire and/or announce retirement soon over the last several months. I figure these folks will have to be replaced in most cases. Not sure how or if that would skew the figures.

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