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TYZ Bloodbath Commencing In 5...4...3...
The only chart that may matter until the end of the year... And no, this is not Portugal.
Furthermore, in extolling the virtues of the administration's trading record, one should be objective and point out that with a DV01 of $1,000,000,000, the Fed's SOMA is sitting on $20 billion in intraday losses today alone. (Don't forget that the Fed is the biggest hedge fund in the world currently).
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I'm totally oblivious to the treasury market and I'd like an idiot's guide-like explanation of this and it's effects.
Treasuries selling off is indictative of what? Which means what?
That the primary dealers' short positions are paying off like mad.
I hope that explains it to you.
Dinner on me.
Not really no, sorry. So you're saying that banks' short positions on the 10yr are paying off?
I was looking for me depth, because the types of comments on this thread make it seem like it's a pretty big deal. I just see it down a little today.
Well considering the Bernank's 100% certain plan with QE2 was to pump up bonds...that implosion alone certainly aint good since the whole world was hanging by that 1 thin thread!
Indicative of rapidly rising interest
rates. Try running a shitty no
growth economy with rapidly rising rates. Doesn't work.
Ring Ring. Ring Ring.
Bernank: "Hello?"
True Market: "Is this The Bernank?"
Bernank: "This is he."
True Market: "Can you page someone for me?"
Bernank: "Certainly. What's the name?"
True Market: "Haywood."
Bernank: "...okay. Haywood who?"
True Market: "Haywood Yablowme, and his friend Jack Mehoff, too!"
win
we've got a real "Haywood Jablowme" here at ZH. Hey, Haywood! Where are ya? Ears burnin' yet?
You paged me?
I'm beginning to think all you bagheads are one and the same person! :>D
THis has some potential....
True Market: "Knock-Knock"
Bernank: "Who's there?"
True Market: "Phil"
Bernank: "Phil Who?"
True market: "Phil McCrevass"
Later that morning...
True Market: "Knock-Knock"
Bernank: "Who's There"
True Market: "Phil's Cousin"
Bernank: *sigh* "Phil's Cousin Who?"
True Market: "Phil McCracken."
Bonds have been dropping in a choppy pattern since mid-October. But this one should really turn some heads today!
And stocks have given up virutally all their gains today. I guess Wall Street didn't like what they heard at Obama's press conference. They must have turned his teleprompoter off!
Wouldn't ya just love to be the person inputting text on the Teleprompter for even just one hour? :>D
20 MIN TO GO....and they are trying mightily to goose the fuckn DOW (as always) after 64 point drop..... UNH UNH UNH...push that pig, you pricks. Must have heard me talkin'.....thar she blows!
Agreed, I see the same thing. Big buyers coming in in Treasury also.
PPT working on all cylinders. I've got blinking lights all over the place.
QE2 to the rescue. They got plenty of dilithium crystals for about ... let's see another month.
lol +1
3:55 OH NO! they might not make it....wait! it bounced again...no wait! it's, it's....OH SHIT...I see red! aye caraba! Harry! Harry!
It's everyone at battle stations at the FED, quick, get the Bernank on the POMO stick!
Pretty obvious that the money is running into equities on even the slightest dips right now.
Been that way for 20+ weeks now Harry... haha
Really? You're talking about today, right?
Is that the new, fuzzy math, Harry?
You hope!
Looking forward positive equity spin after the bell today, Harry.
Absolutely! VXX finally seeing some action: 16:01... 149,000 @ 39.90, 16:13... 25,000 @ 40.15, 16:35....39,000 @ 40.30
Harry, that 80-pt drop on the Dow sure doesn't look like money running into equities.
Uh, there's a party in your mouth...
I'm staying in my bunker until I see Molotov cocktails delivered to FRBNY!
Well, that's one way to address the feds purchasing needs.
I need some suggestions. In July, a 20-something adviser at Morgan Stanley told my mother to buy corporate bonds. I told her record low interest rates were the WORST time to buy. She did anyway. He told her that if she held onto them long enough, she would get ALL her money back. I've been telling her for two months that the principle value of those bonds has been dropping. I even showed her charts for treasuries and corp bond ETFs. She ignores me, hopes they'll come back.
Any suggestions on how to persuade her that she's taking a bloodbath and to cut her losses? I thought I'd show her the latest charts, especically today's, but I doubt she'll give them any more credence than the ones two months ago. Perhaps I should recommend she sue her 20-something at MS?!
Any good ideas would be appreciated!
Forget showing her the charts, show her the price of the fucking bonds she bought, and then put a plus 3% to 8% from here price spread model up, to 'incentvize' her.
And forget suing MS or any dealer-broker. Read the fine print of their 'contracts.' See the mandatory and binding arbitration clause? You wouldn't win anything if they had bound, gagged and raped you or her, which they do to their clients daily, sometimes for money, but often just because they can!
Now THAT is a great idea! I'll do that!
I think I'll tell her to call he MS 20-something, and force him to get her a quote for the value of every one of those bonds. That should wake her up! She'll never want to do business with him again!
Shit, don't worry. The 20 something
broker will be back to switch her into
stocks now that bonds have tanked.
Then she'll be on her way to nirvana
with Wanker.
And when stocks tank he'll switch her
back to bonds.....yada yada yada.
This is what makes America great.
Faith
Hope
and Charity
And so forth
My parents were in the same situation last June. Some hack at RBC suggested they divest some MM funds into corporate paper that had a pretty decent yield (local utilities provider giving 6% on 5yrs).
Anyway, they luckily double-checked with me and soon as i heard anything about bonds i said 'dont do it'. I went the next day to the guy's office with my parents and asked him if he suggests to all his clients this very thing. He said yes, as the yield was 'unreal' compared to what the bank and MM rates are. When i (rhetorically) asked what happens when interest rates rise (they have risen once thus far in Canada) he slyly gave no answer and hedged by talking about how its still a higher rate than elsewhere (for now, that is...).
Anyway, the point of this isn't to say how much of a douche the guy was, but merely to suggest what looks good now isn't always so (actually it never is) in the future. At the very least, suggest to your mother that she reduces her position as much as she can. Keep it in a bank or the MM. She should trust you more than she does an IA..
Look over initial account documents. Under objectives see whats checked off.
You may be able to make an argument based on "suitability" of the investment as appropriate vs. what the objectives on that form states. Often brokers just check off "speculative" or a category that includes some risk, so that later they can use it as back-up if and when the shit hits the fan.
Also what % of her money went into that shit? It may be too big a position for her at this age and with her resources. Again brokers like to check-off that the customers have way more liquid assets than they have. In this way they can later argue that the customer said they had way more money elsewhere and that it didn't make up as big a percentage of assets.
At a minimum she should have a staggered maturity schedule. Also what kind of ratings? This may also bring up suitability.
Look over initial account documents. Under objectives see whats checked off.
You may be able to make an argument based on "suitability" of the investment as appropriate vs. what the objectives on that form states. Often brokers just check off "speculative" or a category that includes some risk, so that later they can use it as back-up if and when the shit hits the fan.
Also what % of her money went into that shit? It may be too big a position for her at this age and with her resources. Again brokers like to check-off that the customers have way more liquid assets than they have. In this way they can later argue that the customer said they had way more money elsewhere and that it didn't make up as big a percentage of assets.
At a minimum she should have a staggered maturity schedule. Also what kind of ratings? This may also bring up suitability.
Show her all the replies in this thread. now. and tell her who these guys are.
When does Treasury introduce the 5 minute note, the time it takes for it to go from the Treasury, to GS, to Fed, back to GS and then to China for redemption @ 5%?
New 5 minute T's! Excellent!
Sounds about right, just be sure to pour the hot water (never boiling!) over the T -- don't do like those silly Bostonians and put the T in the water (especially Boston Harbor -- just NOT cricket!)
At least silver came down a bit and luckily I didnt buy yesterday or today yet
Wow, another 40 cent drop within minutes...
..is there a sustained selling of treasuries? ..has this started? who liquidated Silver? ..crap, I'm going back to Natty futures
Dear Maria,
How does my azz taste?
Love,
Shaq O'Bears
Looks like the vigilantes fired a hot one across Ben's stern this afternoon. This must've shaken him up a bit. It's the first warning shot I can remember since the crisis began. But never fear.. nothing will come of this and tomorrow we'll get the story of a computer glitch and all will return to normal on Wall St.
Looks like someone rang the bell at just about 2:30 this afternoon. There's a small problem with the latest "QE" program--it's suppose to make rates go down, but the opposite is happening. The credibility of the Fed is looking bad right now.
Fed looking bad? In my wet dreams? Could it be?
Maria Bartiromo keeps queefing on camera. SOMETHING BIG IS GOING TO HAPPEN
Okay I give up ... "queefing"?
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Queef
FTW! First sustained belly laugh of the day.
my God! this site is sooooooooo educational, i can't get over it
Jeez... are you guys like 50 or something?
As a matter of fact I am, kid.....that a problem??
j/k
52!
It means I have personal memories of a time when things were only 38% screwed up rather than the current 103% screwed up.
I think the site captcha is finally getting to me.
Guilty as charged (53) -- I throw myself on the mercy of the Court. :>D
Maria says: "Tell it to me again. When
a bond goes down, the yield goes up,
right? Or is it the opposite?"
Poor Maria, used to be kinda something back in the Dotcom mania, should have stayed the coat check girl at the Italian restaurant though.
She no wanna' be-a restauranta coata checka girla!
Thatsawhya she married dat hedge-a-funda douchebagga who izza broka dicka nowwa!!
Just playin' I even have some Italian in me. And there was a time, a long time ago, when I would have been willing to put a little Italian in Maria, but alas, no more...
...WHOOOO!!! She gotta' big ass!!!
You lose her as soon as the words "goes down" enters the conversation.
Liar. The anchor desk has a "modesty"
panel.
Looks like QE has quickly surpassed the Law of Diminishing Returns and now has become a diseconomy of scale.
Not good, especially when QE3 is already being hinted at. Is this the beginning of the end of the US as we know it?
Silver just went below $29 .... Down $1.60 in 7 hours.
And the FED just imploded! NICE!
Hey, the nose spelunker is right!... oh wait, nm.
Hey, go easy there on Balding_Snails! At least this post of his was essentially correct, unlike most of his others.
So you're saying it's easy to be poignant when you have a rat's fucking chance in hell of pulling it off? But when he doesn't have a rat's fucking chance in hell he'll blow more crap than sump pump?
Yes --- I think!
anybody could have bought silver last summer for 16 bucks, or under 10 in the fall of 2008
when it keeps climbing, the sheep are going to get their fingers singed on some hot silver paper
War with Iran is on schedule?
Commodities Bomb. Markets bomb. And dollar is rallying...
What?
I'd be more concerned if markets were rational.
A queef is a burst of smelly air eminating from Maria's vagina when she jiggles her gunt.
With or without audio? I prefer the addition of audio, a heads-up. Pun intended.
Just wonderin
Hey fellow ZHs this is completely off-topic and only slighlty finance related but I was hoping you could help out a fellow entrepeneaur. I started this blog and need followers in order to create revenue so if you wouldn't mind just taking a look and if you like anything about the two posts, maybe you could follow the blog. I have a list of short stoires on the side too. Ones I wrote. I won't do anything like this again but I even though I sometimes can be harsh I really do love all of you, and yes, even you HarryWanger. So here it is: http://istringer.blogspot.com. Thanks much and sorry to bother you.
now heres two charts that r easy to explain......
http://www.silverseek.com/quotes/24silver.php
http://www.silverseek.com/quotes/hoursilver.php
Very interresting move in Silver indeed....
Now that's what I call "bond butchery"!
I should really buy a house before mortgage rates are at 15%
If I live in for 15 years I think I can accept the further 30-50% dip in housing prices when mortgage rates start climbing.
silver getting spanked
a buying opportunity ...
true but beside the point...it would be a buying opp at 30.00...at 40.00...at 50.00...
u wont know the real value until true price discovery (death of the debt coupon dollar) occurs... meanwhile holders of real money r getting fucked & that aint cool....
Real physical demand for silver increasing every month by 1-2% percent while the supply of available metal decreases by the same 1-2% every month. We'll know the true value soon enough.
TD can we get some color on the mega intraday selloff? Wtf
You mean the paper computer-algo-generated-manipulated sell-off? Why do you consider those things real? The only real thing is the metal in your hand.
So... is this a gift for all of us buying silver on the 11th?
Silver slaughtered, I've never seen the manipulation this obvious.
EE Desperation.
Silver retracement necessary?
See 2nd fib. retracement to 50% of gains
http://i.min.us/ibe8sY.png
necessary cause of what??? justifiable empircally because of what changes n the economic or monetary stauts of the world??? for the last time...Technical analysis or references r irrelevant when u have markets that r behaving contradictary to economic/monetary principle and reality...
+1
I don't see anything unusual here... bonds to sell in a weak market... hit PMs (and equities) to drive cash to bonds.
Different day, same old shit... but it's clearly getting old and tired.
Damn Reversal Days. Better hope T/A doesn't work. That was worse than I expected, I could see a test of 30 but still fig'd you guys were going to get your 32. That was colossal. Also frightening beacause there was no margin increase to spook it. Be an interesting two days. Good luck to all.
Wow. All this excitement, on Pearl Harbor Day no less. Must.Get.Bombed...
I didn't read all the comments, so apologies if this was brought up already, but today's action on the 10-year is curious when you consider the 30-year also.
10 year: from 2.93 to 3.13 (20 bps)
30 year: from 4.24 to 4.37 (13 bps)
That is, spreads tightened a bit. I'm no FI expert, so someone with more knowledge than me please chime in, but a rising, flattening curve (granted, we're talking 1 day here) is an odd development. I'm not sure what to think, other than today's selloff might be technical in nature, not necessarily driven by fundamentals (i.e., a sneaky good recovery).
Anyone fathom a guess?
Not exactly my bag either, but I watch the long end most days. That 30 year was lookin' like a two bit hooker in Estonia when a sharp little counter trend rally cleaned her up in appearance at the close.
The way the TBT set up on volume and RSI, I fully expect selling to resume...and for the that spread to..uh hum....loosen up quite a bit before tomorrow's ten year auction.
My guess, anyway, based on watching the long part of the curve. That was some serious movement, and she has 5% written all over her, naughtly little Bernank tease.
That and Netflix is going to sell off, so The Bernank might have some awfully angry portfolio pricks knocking on his door tomorrow, what with that CEO hitting the bricks EXACTLY when his business model was being revealed as, ummmm, stupid? POMO cash out dudes will NOT be happy.
It is obvious from today's market action that Bernanke is far too timid with the duration and size of his QE.
Bernanke is scheduled to be on Oprah tomorrow, where he will talk of a much bolder, more assertive QE+ program.
The Fed really ought to just throw the cash out of helicopters at this point. It could only help Ben's image.
FDR in the new deal paid people to dig ditches and paid other people to bury the ditches!
I like my idea better and I think the people would too..
So, He gonna tape Benjamins to the seat bottoms for the audience members?
Looks like we are near the end game
Jp morgue 's gone all in with silver,
Fed 's gone all in with treasuries...
And julian will release his key, exposing all the liars, bankers, Bilderbergs and NWO all in one day.
What will happen? What I am seeing just makes me shiver:
USG bullying all governments to arrest Julian,
BofA bullying all banks in the world tofreeze the guys accounts....
The military forcing air controllers with their guns to work...
Alll these things look veryyy bad
Must disagree, Marty. Doors of opportunity are beginning to swing open.
Yes, and they are labeled "To The Delousing Showers".
Buy the Dip !
Hoo Bang Dat-Ho
Dude, pls cut out the sensationalist stories.
Your prediction is not being confirmed by the CDS's... currently at 40bps, right behind the 3 nordic countries.
However, you can still be a hero and put your money where your mouth is... you can short as much CDS as you wish... the mkt is very deep.
If you do not feel like backing up your rhetoric with real cash... just skip the sensationalist crap.
You only make yourself out to be sophmoric.
But what do I know... I am just a Dick Weed.
I thought this was a good yield on real terms? LOL. What happened Rosie?
by erik
on Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:22
#684168
Bill Gross is a fool.
March 2010 Gross said "bonds may have seen their best days." The 10 year yield was around 3.85% when he said it. It reached 2.40% in a steady downward move after that.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-25/pimco-s-gross-says-bonds-may-have-seen-their-best-days.html
Mmmm....that's some tasty crow, huh Erik?
Looks like time to roll another one.
good action in FAZ after-hours, at least to 5:30 pm
Maybe the selling is a result of the 10% of the cash in $100 bills they had to trash this morning from misprints. That 10% is only what, some $1-$3 Trillion poofed from the system with magical wands. LOL
Too bad we all know there is no cash, and its all digits rolling around in a stack of computers all over the planet.
Over 78% of the 28 day today was taken out by PD's at more than 50% less than last weeks auction. WTF Benny?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TYZ10.CBT you see that spike that just happened
California bonds seems to be in trouble also
George Soros. Or did I spell that backword?
Ah yes, Soros's theory of Reflextivity has been alive the well the last 10 years. So much for being a theory.
The run up in oil prices in 2008 ........
Significant news. Thanks, TD.
Any indication that rates are rising at the long end is a sign the Fed is losing control of the market.
The next step down is accelerating.
The market is forcing bbbbBenny to buy more bonds faster in order to keep the interest rate structure from disintegrating (uncontrolable rising rates, instant economic heart attack). If he does not step up to the plate fast enough then he's gonna be running after a speeding freight train trying to get in front of it to stop it. Among other things his statement that he will buy more bonds if he sees fit was specificly designed to provide public disclosure that he will do what he needs to do to defend the rate structure to keep the US economy from imploding any more than it already has.
The net result of this will be a hugh, growing reserve of capital seeking investement, which will, in part, go to commodities. IMO that means real stuff will cost more and more, more rapidly, now if bbbBenny starts to accelorate bond purchases.
Bond holders are caught between holding bonds while rates rise in order to preserve capital while the economic superstructure that supports repayment of those bonds collapses, or...
Selling bonds and then having the money they hold depreciate in their hands vis a vis real purchasing power.
This is a fooking fugly situation that could well go to hell in a hand basket very rapidly.
thanks for the Silver dip
i added more at $28.64
physical fools !!
woo hoo !!!
Success is going from one failure to the next with no loss of enthusiasm- Winston Churchill
Love the analogy. Is the Fed taking on new investors? Do they have a lock up period? Who are the dominant investors? What is the track record of the management company? .....
The Bernank is batting .000 so far.
Goose Egg.
The Big Stiff.
Nada...Zilch...Smidgeless.
He's the ultimate fade in an iNterweBz era of heavy hitting fades everywhere.
The quivering lips...
...the nervous tone...
....that voice cracking...
...facial twitches and ticks...
As the Beard Turns (gray)...The Life & Times of the Bearded Clam Mutant Progeny of Jekyll Island.
Of this, I'm 100% certain, and needed far less than 15 minutes to state with the utmost of confidence.
This guy...this Bernanke mutant - he goes on national fucking television and tells the world he can end inflationary spikes in 15 minutes (that's what he said - he didn't say he could "raise interest rates in 15 minutes," which would have been dubious, and stretching credulity, also).
Standard economic doctrine of most schools of thought give a minimum lead time of 6 months to stem minor, let alone major, inflationary episodes.
What a total fucking douchebag this guy is.
Is ordering trillions of bond issuance and purchases similar to a drug addiction ? (Ignore that man behind the curtin !!!!)
Bernanke has driven off the road into the desert...
Ben initiating QE2, then goes on 60 minutes, may exceed 600 billion, yada yada yada.
While they feed us manipulated upward pablum; the real internal numbers on economic performance must be terrifying. It's a house of cards sitting on a active fault line in a wind storm.
>>on Tue, 12/07/2010 - 16:51
>>#787117
>>Love your blog used the
>>BIG STORY, HUGE CONSEQUENCES, LITTLE COVERAGE
big story indeed, the blog you linked misses the point. What is the point? China is having difficult time sterilizing currency in circulation at current rates. The nature (i.e inflation) is finally taking hold, need to raise rates but people who can do it sit in London. The interest rate circus we're about to see in the West is a cover for China to have it's "deflation moment"
Who's There? Ben
Ben Who?
Helicopter Ben, because I tipped off Our Friends, way back in 2002, that I am prepared to shower them with Green! No Matter What. Fraud On Bitchezzzz.