UBS Explains What Happens If The US Is Downgraded Without A Default

Tyler Durden's picture

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wsmith's picture

I'm just not buying any type of U.S. downgrade.

We now live on a global plantation.  And the United States is the task-master.

The Bernank and Little Timmy have a lot of power.  They are gonna keep the balls in the air for a long long time.

But what the fuck do I know?

Anyway, so long.

And God bless all you Marxist cocksuckers. 

augie's picture

Does Guinness still come in packs of six? 

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Tyler, can we please stop referring to the failure of raising the debt ceiling as a "default".

Default means failing to pay the interest on your debt. The Feds collect WAY more than enough in taxes to pay the interest on our currently outstanding debt.

StychoKiller's picture

Dammit Buckaroo, I'm a Doctor, NOT an Economist!

Decepticrats:  "There's income to re-distribute, we got NO time for spending cuts until AFTER the Economy improves!"

Republicons:  "There's Corporations hanging on by a thread, they need their welfare checks!  We got no time for tax increases until AFTER the Economy improves!"

SS Recipient:  "The Govt OWES me my money!"

Welfare Recipient:  "Obamatron will pay my mortgage and put gas in my car!"

General (Mayhem):  "Hey, soldiers don't fight for free!  Bullets cost dinero!"

CIA:  "Cut spending AFTER the Afghan opium crop is harvested!"

Someone really should mention that the biscuit wheels are coming off the gravy train!

trav7777's picture

if a downgrade occurred, would this not dislocate the entire paper pyramid equating USTs with the AAA paper mandated for certain swaps?

I mean, wouldn't this trigger collateral calls all across every swap and repo spectra?  Would the Fed even be able to hold them or accept them as collateral at the window?

Cdad's picture

Yes...I mean no...because this would only be a "soft downgrade" of US paper.

In any event, you are starting to see the answer on the 30 year, which was so obviously "jiggered" two days ago in order to dislocate traders and sew confusion.

Expect more talk about what will happen when the downgrade comes as the market attempts to "soften" the impact of the event by messaging expectations...because the downgrade is coming.

ElvisDog's picture

I think a downgrade or default or whatever you want to call it would simply be ignored by TPTB. They would carry on business as usual.

Ripped Chunk's picture

"But what the fuck do I know?"


Farcical Aquatic Ceremony's picture

Nothing will happen.  Absolutely nothing.  We live in a completely-controlled global "bio-dome".  It's 1984.  Atlas has shrugged.  And the largest global power is run by the Manchurian Candidate.  I never thought I would live to see the day where 80's Schwarzenegger films (Running Man, Total Recall) seemed plausible in my own lifetime.

Spastica Rex's picture

Oh, I didn't notice it before, but from your picture you look like you're being repressed.

Farcical Aquatic Ceremony's picture

"Come and see the violence inherent in the system!"

jkruffin's picture

Just a matter of time before the bond, gold, and silver people figure out this ECB scam and the US scam, and send it all higher.  No way this euphoria on Wall Street is going to last.  It amazes me every day that goes by they keep getting away with it.  I guess it works, until it doesn't.

StychoKiller's picture

From Mish's Global Economy:

Merkel, who calls the single currency a “work of peace” and part of Europe’s “uniting idea,” is the key holdout on so- called euro bonds.

“Once they look into the abyss of a major speculative attack on Italy,” Merkel will have to embrace euro bonds, Peter Bofinger, a member of the chancellor’s Council of Economic Advisers, said in a telephone interview. “That would be the turning point. There needs to be a joint guarantee for all outstanding debt.”

Political Union

France sees little room for a common bond without more integration of Europe’s fiscal and budgetary regimes, a French official said. German Deputy Foreign Minister Werner Hoyer said it will require a closer “political union.”


In other wordz:  "We're gonna hold the sword of Damacles over yer headz UNTIL we get a One-Europe Govt™ installed!


Dr. Engali's picture

Indeed, even Congress recognizes the risk of default and appears to have a fallback strategy to allow the President to raise the debt ceiling to avoid a default in the event a broader deal fails to materialize.


 I fail to see why congress wants to hand this guy more power. Is there anybody out there who is addressing the fact that this isn't even constitutional? Congress has the power of the purse strings. Not the administration. 

cosmictrainwreck's picture

can't get a fukin' DECISION by clusterfuck of 535 individuals, ergo defer to a single decision-maker. credit the pussies for their pragmatism

Dr. Engali's picture

So granting him dictatorial powers is the answer. And you cheer that?  I feel sorry for you.

cosmictrainwreck's picture

forgot the /sarc... and tongue-in-cheek - but still half-serious. fuck you and yer "feel sorry for". this pathetic on-shot situation is soooooo NOT fucking important in context of all the other bullshit swirling around. You worried about "dictatorial powers"? All he has do is sign Exec Order and send yer sorry ass to FEMA camp - that is if DHS hasn't already nailed you for violation of the Fucking Patiotica Americana Act and put  you in jail - sans habeus corpus.

Have a nice day 

Re-Discovery's picture

Geitner to the market:

No AAA?  No problem.  Here, take my AA.  I mean how many A's does anybody really need.  I myself was a C student, and look where I am now.  Besides, A's are boring.  

I mean there are 25 more letters in the alphabet and we have pluses and minuses.  Brown University doen't even give grades anymore.  Grades are so 'Gold Standard'.  Not cool.

We're good for it . . . trust me.

Joe Sixpack's picture

You can use one of my A's. Remember, when I worked at the IMF, I did not pay A penny in taxes. There AA for the US, plus my A, and you get AA+A=AAA ? Turbo Timmy math explained.

DougM's picture

S&P, Moody's and Fitch will not downgrade the US.

Farcical Aquatic Ceremony's picture

Correct.  First one to do so results in many employees being in plane crashes, drowning in hot tubs, and getting run over by cars with bad brakes.

Robslob's picture

Roobslob Explains What Happens If The US Is Downgraded Without A Default


Bohemian Clubber's picture

it d be more realistic explaining What Happens If The US Defaults Without A Downgrade

Shocker's picture

So we win either way?

Peter K's picture

At least UBS is still reality based. That's a plus.

Johnny Lawrence's picture

UBS is in no way reality-based, believe me.  The cheerleading reports that come out of this firm are unbelievable.

Thisson's picture



At least UBS is still reality based biased. That's a plus.

White.Star.Line's picture

As country after country is "downgraded",with their economies further ravished and their citizens impoverished, the people will look to their saviour, the central bank, for guidance and direction

Subprime JD's picture

The problem is that there are a few trillion in money market related rating triggers which would grind to a halt the repurchase of paper of a sovereign that no longer has the AAA mark, resulting in our opinion in a dramatic crunch in short-term liquidity, and set the stage for a Lehman-like monetary system paralysis

Money market funds will not dump formerly rated AAA treasuries due to a downgrade to AA. There is simply no other place to put all these funds. Now if there was a downgrade to BBB or lower than that is a different story.

Insiderman's picture

Negotiable CDs maturing near-term might make an interesting substitute.

Pure Evil's picture

S&P, Moody's and Fitch have years of experience with polishing turds, after all they knew how to put lipstick on those subprime mortgage pigs, didn't they?

Not to say the US rating turd needs any polishing, but for some reason it sure do stink around here.

Must be my stanky fingers.

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Got a little of the ol' stink finger, huh? Better than stink foot.



Yardfarmer's picture

UBS?!kind of like the fox checking up on the old henhouse.

SheepDog-One's picture

Default? Downgrades? To the US dollar which only has any value because its traded for oil? Ive seen worse its nothing but a flesh wound!

But your arms and legs are off!

Bah! Ive had worse!


FederalReserveBankofTerror's picture

According to Gottfried Leibniz, we live in the best of all possible worlds. We are perfect monads. Our collective picaresque experience will result in the same conclusion Voltaire's  Candide came to after his collective life experiences, that we need to cultivate our gardens. There is about to be an explosion of picaresque life experiences for EVERYONE. may want to begin "cultivating your gardens" respectively.

rock11's picture

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AchtungAffen's picture

All Shall be Well. The Wars Will be Over Soon. Good Times Are Coming Back. We Just Went Around the Corner. AGW is a Lie. The USD Will be There For Ever. The Euro Will Crash With Its Union But Not The US. Guns = Law = Freedom. The Government Is Always The Problem. You Are a Communist.

Etc... The catchphrases with the most bullshit being spewed around lately...

Chile is a great country. But it's a very unequal country. Oh, lemme add one more phrase: "Inequality Doesn't Matter". Yeah, BS that too.