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UBS Sees Silver Hitting $35 On "Physical Interest In The Metal"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It took just three months (and a 50% spike in price) for UBS to do a 180 on silver. In the firm's most recent Silver update from Dominic Schnider of Wealth Management Research, the author now says "Silver prices remain well supported and have been able to trade repeatedly above USD 30/oz." More importantly for those who are concerned that the recent all time high just north of $31 was a one time fluke, fear not: "Temporarily, prices could even hit USD 35/oz on physical interest in the metal due to firm economic activity." Bottom line: "Investors should make use of silver volatility for yield enhancement strategies At levels close to USD 25/oz, we are willing to pick up the metal." Then again, none of this should come as a surprise or even lead one to make investment decisions: after all it was just in September that the same person, in a report titled: "Price strength not on firm ground" said "We expect industrial demand to show some weakness and advise investors to avoid the metal" and concluded "We therefore prefer to be sellers at present levels and would reopen a position at or below 17.5/oz." Merely another confirmation that virtually every sellsider on Wall Street is merely a momentum riding, backward looking, chart monkey, and all those who seek original, contrarian thought are advised to stay very, very far from Wall Street "analysis."

From the most recent Schinder report:

  • Silver prices remain well supported and have been able to trade repeatedly above USD 30/oz.
  • Temporarily, prices could even hit USD 35/oz on physical interest in the metal due to firm economic activity.
  • However, if 2004-2008 is a performance indicator, the persistent outperformance of silver versus gold should come to an end.

The re-rating of silver looks completed – for now Silver prices appreciated more than 80% in 2010. With the rebound in economic growth, we estimate fabrication demand grew by more than 15% last year. Strong silver imports by China and Japan are a reflection of higher silver use. The role of China as a persistently large net importer is rather new. For 2010, net imports should have soared to almost 3,500 tons. This is 50% more than before the financial crisis. With fabrication demand returning, the supply and demand balance has begun to tighten up. Since investment demand has been strong as well, the gold-silver ratio swiftly reached 45 – similar to 2004-2008.

If the term structure of US interest rates remains a good predictor of economic activity and history repeats itself, the gold-silver ratio should lack a directional trend in the coming quarters. This suggests the re-rating is  completed, which is largely reflected in our forecast. Risk to our view relates to the industrialization of large emerging market countries, like China and India, which is fully under way. Coupled with heightened fears on public debt monetization in the developed world and the lack of market depth, the gold-silver ratio could drop – over time – into the 30-45 range like in the 1970s.

Recommendation

Investors should make use of silver volatility for yield enhancement strategies At levels close to USD 25/oz, we are willing to pick up the metal.

h/t fredquimby

 

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Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:35 | 866818 bania
bania's picture

crap, looks like silver heading down for the next short while. time to accumulate I guess.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:40 | 866829 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

It's at $29.65 and rising...what chart are you looking at?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:59 | 866868 bania
bania's picture

what i mean is UBS and their kind have a habit of being wrong more often than not.  if this analyst is saying silver is headed up then my guess is it'll head down for a while.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:02 | 866877 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

My worry too.... but I am thinking they say upto $35 and it will actually be $65!!

 

 

 

 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:05 | 867001 beastie
beastie's picture

UBS are scum. Pick any miner they cover to see that. For example HL about 6 months ago. They would pile on the shorts release some rubbish about downgrading. Once the dirty deed was done and they sheered a few investors and day traders they would go long and upgrade again.

Total and utter scum.

Do not pay any attention to anything they have to say.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:09 | 867330 Voodoo-economist
Voodoo-economist's picture

It must go straight up then, because he says "pick up at 25" so he expects a drop.  

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:29 | 867381 spartan117
spartan117's picture

My thoughts exactly.  Trying to sucker folks into "waiting" for the magic $25 mark while the train leaves the station.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:40 | 867412 Voodoo-economist
Voodoo-economist's picture

speaking of it, is that a huge negative divergence developing on the daily chart?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:38 | 866824 famousamos
famousamos's picture

Just got a few more tubes in, and let me tell you... these American Silver Eagles (2010) look shittay. Hard to explain, but they look extra dull/dark/cloudy/uneven on the front with some shiny silver marks here & there. The backs look normal. They all look identical, so it's probably due to manufacturing process. I wonder if that's part of the low Dec production? Maybe with the "quality" section of the coinage law changed, they don't give a crap?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:21 | 866911 flacon
flacon's picture

The highest quality minted coin that I have found is the Austrian Philharmonic. I agree that the US Silver Eagle is "so-so" in quality. I would say good things about the Maple Leaf, but the milky spots on many of my coins is disappointing - Maples are known to have milky spots every now and then.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:30 | 866940 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Those are from people who have squirted because they're so goddamn gorgeous.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 19:07 | 868501 RexZeedog
RexZeedog's picture

Your comment is so disgusting, it's funny.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:38 | 866946 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Canucks know how to do two things, drink beer and play hockey.....

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:56 | 867114 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

... don't forget the back bacon, eh!

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:07 | 867325 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

yes, but don't forget, those are two pretty important things even for a Yank like me!

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:29 | 867062 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Actually it's the Australian Lunar series that are the best in quality second by the panda coins from China. In third place I'll put the britanica and the Silver eagle fourth. The Austria philharmonic is just so and so in my eyes.

I even used these to do some toning tests because I didn't really care about them and for me they are also the cheapest to buy her in Europe.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:08 | 867324 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I personally like the Aussie coins, talk about slick, problem is Premiums.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:24 | 866918 margaris
margaris's picture

I thought the same. Of course the silver eagle isnt a very shinny coin, but still the last ones I got where somehow "odd".

I also found the austrian coin to be very beautiful, and I am going to try others.

 

What about buffalos? They seem to be the cheapest coins available. But possibly ugly too???

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 12:14 | 867149 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

love the buffalos since it reminds you that you are buying the metal, not the coin

I really like the stackable bars though

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:23 | 867768 Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

Cheapest is 90% 'junk' silver.  Less premium means more silver for your fiat.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 18:42 | 874624 margaris
margaris's picture

sorry, but junk silver is ugly in so many ways!

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:10 | 867012 beastie
beastie's picture

Got a sealed from the mint monster box of 2009's and they were the same.I have only opened a few tubes so far but so far they all seem to have that black smudge on one side.

I was almost tempted to send them back but really bought for the Silver value not numismatics. If I get a few choice coins out of the bunch it is worth the extra few hundred dollars I paid for a sealed from the mint box.

Live and learn I'll stick with the Canadian stuff from now on.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:12 | 867337 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Your paying a nice premium for those, I would not accept them.

You will get hit if you decide to sell them.

No excuse for a an Eagle or a Mape to not be immaculate.

I hate the Austrians, the design is ugly.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:27 | 867056 Bagbalm
Bagbalm's picture

It costs money to maintain the dies.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:53 | 867110 famousamos
famousamos's picture

For bullion, I normally love the ASE's, except for this last batch which apparently fell victim of the manufacturing process. Rumor is that the 2011 ASE's will be nicer/briliant. Philharmonic's are just awesome. I like the buffalo's, but they aren't in the same class - kind of rudimentary. Merc rounds that I have are very nice. I need to find a direct outlet for those merc rounds. My absoulte favs are those special australian coins... koala, Kooko, Lunar series...

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 12:41 | 867251 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

I was wondering about that too - My early '08 Eagles looked good but the later ones were pretty dull.  The late '09 were even worse, almost a matte finish.  I have few tubes of mixed dates and the Eagles from the late 80's were nearly mirror finish.

 

It must be the total lack of changing out the die since they no longer do proofs.  Proofs require brand new polished die.  I'm sure they must just move those die to production after the allotted proofs are minted but that's just a guess.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:13 | 867340 DocLogo
DocLogo's picture

I'd like to hear an argument re: coins vs bullion? Which do people prefer to own and why? Discuss.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 14:00 | 867469 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Their is no difference, except premium costs,and Eagles are legal tender at $1.00(sell all you want at that price).

Both are Bullion.If you held long enough some dates are worth more depending on number minted.

But not enough for me to pay the excess premium, just gets you less Slvr.IMHO

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:28 | 867779 Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

Whatever allows you to get the most silver for the least fiat (smallest premium).  And I find that to currently be 90% 'junk' and then bars.  Premiums that you pay to acquire are not frequently realized at sale.  Especially if you sell when everyone else is.  If lots of silver coming in to refiners/dealers then you wont get your premium and you will get spot or even under that.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:39 | 866825 bronzie
bronzie's picture

is "silver bitchez" still in vogue here on ZH?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:44 | 866834 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

AFAIK, "Silver" anything is in vogue.
You could switch it up with

"Plata, putas"

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:18 | 866903 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

plata PERRAS.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:27 | 866935 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

Plata pendejos!!!

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:47 | 867098 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Argentum caniculae!!

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 14:37 | 867598 Cyrano de Bivouac
Cyrano de Bivouac's picture

No-the saying is "platino putas!".

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 12:44 | 867254 The Nagus
The Nagus's picture

Latinum & Silver,  Bitchez

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:27 | 867376 blobbus
blobbus's picture

Gold laced Latinum is preferred

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:39 | 866827 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

I LOVE the price of Silver in the Morning!

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:44 | 866831 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

silver colored underwear, bitchez

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:28 | 866934 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Michael Renny was ill the day the Earth stood still, but he told us, they had a plan.

And Flash Gordon was there in silver underwear..."

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:03 | 866998 small watcher
small watcher's picture

...in the back row-oh-oh-oh

Yea back row!

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:10 | 867333 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Say! Any of you guys know how to Madison?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:44 | 866832 PeaBird
PeaBird's picture

"Investors should make use of silver volatility for yield enhancement strategies At levels close to USD 25/oz, we are willing to pick up the metal."

What's the probability, at this stage of the game, to see 25/oz again on a dip, when this level was last penetrated & closed above, on the 3rd Nov last year? I'd say less than 30%.

 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:45 | 866838 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

Just buy all the dips on the way down to 25 to be safe.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:24 | 866917 PeaBird
PeaBird's picture

The only dip over the past 7 weeks has been 28.50. 25 seems a stretch to reach at the moment. That's all I was sayin'..

Oh..and yes, this is the paper price that's being quoted. Add on the appropriate premium for your local area.

Down here in flood filled Oz (well...it's not flooding where I'm at...yet...tehe), the lowest premium is about AUD3.80 above perth mint physical prices that they charge to their agents. But the highest premium is about AUD10.00 or more.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:52 | 866848 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

It seems like they're saying "Paper silver, Bitchez," doesn't it? Surf the volatility.

Swell.

Everytime I've ever tried to surf volatility, I got run over by a tidal wave.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:52 | 866850 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Somebody from this firm still has the front to present a follow up "authorative" insight into the silver direction based on their last call? Wow! The balls!

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:25 | 866920 flacon
flacon's picture

They just had to pick a number that they knew was TOO LOW for silver to go - that way the gullible sheeple will be waiting for silver to drop to $25..... but it will never happen and the sheeple will never own silver (or gold). It's all a game to keep people away from honest money. 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 12:55 | 867295 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

exactly - i hear even smart people around here saying gold is too expensive already..  i guess they can't just buy 10g at a time..  its all in the mind

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:03 | 867318 ciscokid
ciscokid's picture

Yeah, they want us to wait for 25$ silver,we shall not see

price again,buy the feaking silver thats,at the end its how many 

oz you have.Silver over 50$ sooooonn.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:16 | 867349 DosZap
DosZap's picture

When the Euro takes a permanent dump, and idiots flee to the dollar.

That will be the best time to buy for all metals IMHO.

I am looking for a 25-40% correction.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:33 | 867394 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

As always, a tough call.  I was looking for 25-26 because I expected a real pullback in the S&P but we are not getting it.  Now, Ag appears to be placing in a bottom so I am with you on 20-30 chance to see 25, at best.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:48 | 866833 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Tea leave reading I'll leave in the hands of the Wall street jocks. I will not trade this tsunami of short selling, Stops don't work, price projections don't work, this market is completely rigged and backed by complicit regulators. I'll ride with my physical. Going all in. Good luck to all who take them on in the pits. If the two cartoon bears are correct, there is giong to be a shit storm of volitility in this arena of paper promises. See you on the other side. Many thanks to Blythe and her Chinese counterparts.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:46 | 866836 fiftybagger
Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:47 | 866841 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

if the Au/Ag ratio drops to 35 and silver is at $35, what does that say about gold? Makes no sense.

The second paragraph in their missive is confusing.

I read $150 dollar silver, all that looping logic aside.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:55 | 867456 DosZap
DosZap's picture

The ratio divided into current cost, will give you the price basis of Slvr.

@ 35 ratio, and Gld @ 1382.50,you have Slvr at around $39.50.

Where are you getting $150?.

As you know ratios and cost per oz, are two separate issues totally.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:47 | 866842 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

amazing how these clueless technocrats so hopelessly entrenched in their abysmally myopic metrics are now only grudgingly acknowledging what has become obvious to even the casual observer of the markets. Clive Maund, once an inveterate skeptic of the meteoric rise of Au/Ag, who for years perennially scared his clients out of their positions, now advises to part with the physical under no circumstances and now includes "load up zones" on his Au charts. 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:57 | 866985 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

yardfarmer

when you see an inveterate skeptic turn bullish, how do you ignore the "last bear turn bull" phenomenon that, many times, precedes a price reversal of fair significance?

respectfully...

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 12:39 | 867243 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The shorts have to go first, as they are inherently bearish.  That hasn't happened yet.

Further, such rules only work in free markets, not the land of eternal POMO and QE.  I'm extremely bearish on equities, but I know better than to short them, because printing will wipe out any dollar profits I would see.  Shorting in terms of gold works well, but it is probably better to just buy the metal.

Deflation is real, but only in terms of precious metals.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:07 | 867705 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

tmosley

Here's an article that describes the dubious relationship between future market movements and short-interest data better than me:

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/short-selling/aggregate-short-interest-as-a-s...

Here is a quote from another site:

We can only conclude from all this that trying to interpret short interest levels to predict market direction is a dangerous game. Short interest statistics can at best convey a general sense of how much betting against the market is taking place, but it certainly does not seem to provide any valuable timing data. 

http://www.timingcube.com/weeklies/111210/

Relying on short interest and/or capitulation to predict market movements is dubious, at best.  In the rear view mirror, you can see certain breakouts on the charts, but more than likely you won't know you're falling off the cliff until the ground is in clear view.

The rest of your post is just more bullish thoughts on PM's that one could hear from any PM bull. So basically I'm saying that you didn't sufficiently answer my question. 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:36 | 867400 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

The "last bear"s are Joe and Jane Six Pack.  When they start to put savings into PMs it will be the last phase.  Not even close to that yet the meme is still expanding. 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:08 | 867714 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

The "last bear"s are Joe and Jane Six Pack...

Like people who live in trailer parks hiding gold under their removable front porch?


Tue, 01/11/2011 - 16:25 | 867932 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

No, they'll get their 1 oz sLiberty or whatever. The last silver and gold bull will be the thick headed, middle class, employed 6 figure earner, whose normalcy bias locks them out of the trade of a lifetime.

If only Joe and Jane trailer trash Wal mart shoppers, burried in their ignorance, could> No they will be left to their Graham crackers and guns, living on a scrap heap.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:43 | 867419 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Clive Maund is NOT a gold bear. Conservative/weak hand? Fine, but not a bear.

When I see the likes of Nadler and Christian calling for $2500 gold, and $100 silver get back to me.

 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 14:47 | 867639 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Bay,

Bear or not, I stopped reading him a while back, because it was always negative towards Au.

Nadler,LOL.

Cannot see how/why he's got a job at Kitco.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:48 | 866843 bronzie
bronzie's picture

"At levels close to USD 25/oz, we are willing to pick up the metal."

anything is possible but don't hold your breath ...

and if you haven't started accumulating silver don't wait for $25/oz before you begin

silver will almost certainly reach $80/oz in this current bull market - $200/oz is probable and $500/oz won't be surprising - a few analysts make a case for $2000/oz silver or for the price of silver to surpass the price of gold, but that is hard to imagine

any purchase at current prices is likely to look very intelligent in coming years

and if you have been accumulating since $5/oz, wipe that smug grin off your face!!!

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:05 | 866882 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

It's getting really interesting.  As more people grasp the fundamentals, they realize the should be long silver, so they pixel-trade it.  JPM can make more money distorting the price downward to rob the virtual silver longs, but they know there's another group out there ready to take their silver away.

What's a crooked bank to do?  It's fun to watch. (Popcorn, Bitchez?)

I think $25 (maybe even $20) again is possible, but I'm not holding my breath.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:48 | 866844 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

My silver is on its way back

Despite the Blythe Masters attack

It sure would be nifty

If it shot-up to fifty

My wife would stop giving me flack 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:48 | 866845 Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

Why pay for advice like that?  All of these pundits are wrong most of the time, but not the ones who frequent ZH and associate with it.  What I would love to know is just how influential ZH et al really are?  Is this message getting out there in any meaningful and coherent way or are we the few, the very few who can now see through the veil of misinformation to the landscape beyond?

I've made some progress with my closest relations/relatives on these matters.  An unbelieving and reluctant partner, in laws more like out laws.  But they have suddenly fallen silent and they've got that look about them which tells me that for them the penny has dropped.

News items now make much more sense with the broader correct perspective against which to measure them.  Its just a matter of time now till we reach the 100th Monkey.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:37 | 866948 PeaBird
PeaBird's picture

I don't know what to make of it, but last week, I found out that my Mum cheers at the TV as if it's a sporting match, when she sees the Au/Ag prices are quoted moving up from the previous day. I did laugh hard though... as that's probably the "100th monkey" right there..tehe.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 14:53 | 867651 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Chappa,

I got weary, and stopped altogether.If my friends bring up equites, and PM's(stocks),I ask them if they hold physical,and without giving them a chance to answer I tell them if all they own is paper, of any kind, they do not own PM's,nor is their future secure.

Then I Shut up.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:54 | 866858 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

That price is certainly acheivable if the Dow hits 14,000.

No doubt, the economy is on fire, Palladium and Platinum are screaming due to huge car sales, and silver demand is rocketing due to an industrial boom of epic proportions.

And just wait until the rappers and hip hop guys start wearing silver jewelry, then the resulting consumer demand could push silver to $40.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:01 | 866874 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

For some reason, I imagine this read out loud in a helium affected voice.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:42 | 866961 ZEITGEIST
ZEITGEIST's picture

just blew my cereal all over my lap top on that comment..freakin hilariuos EscapeKey

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:00 | 866991 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

That "Trader" named "Robot" is strange

Some might even say he's deranged

That troll ain't no chick

You can tell he's a dick

It's time for an avatar change

 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:20 | 866907 G. Marx
G. Marx's picture

 

You used to be interesting to read. Now? Not so much.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:45 | 866967 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Robot trader you are making me nervous - my silver for a horse ?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:51 | 867444 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

I think Robo sees herself acting as an anodyne to the overheated, headaching pessimism from some quarters at ZH.  That is a good role.  I appreciate Jon Nadler keeping me sober all these years, wrong as he was.

A good question for anyone that trades is, "how smart am I if I am losing money".  Looks like Robo makes money.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:55 | 866859 Jason T
Jason T's picture

I"m still waiting for call from my local coin shop when he gets silver he can sell.  I"m #50 in his list, but I just know I"ll get a call ... meanwhile, earning 0.1% in savings account.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:15 | 866902 kalum
kalum's picture

Don't use my local coin shop as NM has a hefty sales tax on PMs. I often wonder who does business with them

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:18 | 867757 DosZap
DosZap's picture

WHY WAIT?.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:56 | 866862 SumDumGuy
SumDumGuy's picture

I am relatively new to PM collecting.  Do any of you ever test authenticity/composition of the silver eagles from the mint?  Them selling fakes that are really untraceable would be the biggest eff you since TARP.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:01 | 866876 espirit
espirit's picture

If in doubt, buy Maples.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:18 | 866905 Grifter
Grifter's picture

+ .9999

Did nothing but Silver Maples for Xmas for my family this year.  The response was the exact opposite of what I expected; thought I'd see "meh" or "ho hum I wanted iPad" but everyone was really geeked to hold it in their hands. 

Converted 7 people that day, although my dad was already a semi-convert as he's been collecting junk silver for years.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 12:05 | 867140 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

Same here... have a very wealthy Xmas birthday boy friend... gave him a mounted Maple at his traditional Xmas Eve bash, and he was showing it off to everyone... for the guy that has everything!

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 19:12 | 868516 RexZeedog
RexZeedog's picture

So are we to understand that you mounted his maple?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:55 | 867457 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

The Obama admin is ready to further debase coins (2011 budget 'alternative materials') and I find it a disgrace.

Is it not a manifest, clear-as-hell's-bells sign that an empire is in descent, when it's coinage loses integrity and beauty?  I have a lot of Eagles but have purchased none post-dating 2007 and it sounds like I may not. 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:20 | 867763 DosZap
DosZap's picture

If I gave my family PM's for Xmas, they would sell it within 2 days at PM's R US.(at 40% under spot).

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:38 | 866951 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

+1

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 09:59 | 866871 max2205
max2205's picture

'willing to buy at $25'. Ummm that'll be a crash down price to 12

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:04 | 866880 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

I saw somebody on goldsilverus say something like"if silver breaks $50, I will offer arselicking"

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:08 | 866884 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

If a big bank goes bullish on something which is not indices (individual stock, Forex, commodities), it's time to sell.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:05 | 866886 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

I'll see your $35 and raise you to $50. 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:13 | 866900 Shakey
Shakey's picture

"momentum riding, backward looking, chart monkey"  +1

 

 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:25 | 866919 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

UBS have the best traders in the galaxy

-Lehman Quant

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:56 | 866984 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

They surely knew how to write down 42 Billion USD in losses fast.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:25 | 866922 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

hard to understand why if they know its going to 35 that one should hold out to buy at 25.

 

I guess if you throw enough stuff up on the wall, some of the forecasts will come true and those become the lead stories.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:26 | 866928 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Gold. Gold will be CRUSHED. Silver? Eh, not so much.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:41 | 866958 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Silver is always more volatile than gold.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:01 | 866993 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

but always less valuable

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 12:43 | 867256 tmosley
tmosley's picture

NOT always.  There have been times in history when silver was equal in value to gold.  Further, we live in unprecedented times, where nearly the entire above ground stock of a monetary metal has been depleted by industrial usage.  Indeed, industrial usage where the material properties of the metal are so valuable that a supply shortage could easily push the price to par or beyond.

Also, gold is going up, not down.  The only way it will go down is with the death of Bernanke and his ilk.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:30 | 866933 Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

It is evident that there is a shortage and delay in deliveries by following the inventories of the US Mint, ScotiaMocatta, Sprott Fund and other bullion dealers. In my view, what is really happening, is that the control of the silver market has shifted from the "paper masters" to the "physical masters." Meaning, the minors and refiners are in control of the game now and you can bet that they are intentionally delaying their shipments to ride the silver price even higher. This is similar to how some crude oil tankers literally did figure-eight cruise paths in the Atlantic in 2008. Do you think the minors and refinors really give a shit about rushing inventories out the door to save the banks that have been suppressing silver prices for the last three decades? I don't think so. 

 

 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 12:12 | 867164 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

News from Sprott on their bullion delivery... interesting point on the level of transparency in the trust... they will be posting the S/Ns of all bars in inventory.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sprott-physical-silver-trust-updates-investors-on-the-delivery-status-of-its-silver-bullion-purchases-113192274.html

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:25 | 867777 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Ecoman,

I hope your spot on.

Bout time someone except JPM did it.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:29 | 866938 Serpico
Serpico's picture

No physical silver bars http://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/silver-bars/

 

 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 12:03 | 867135 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

I have no trouble buying silver here:

http://www.mtbcoins.com/code/bullion_silver.html

 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:28 | 867784 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Did I miss it?, I saw no pricing.

If you cant post pricing, you get no call from me.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:30 | 866939 Silversinner
Silversinner's picture

Do not listen to these UBS scum.

The only purpuse of bankers is to

separate you from your money.

Gold and silver accumilation stops

this criminal proces and starts

building your own personel wealth.

Just hide your capital from greedy

slymmy finghers of gouverment

and banks;it belongs to you and

your childeren.Exchanging bad quality

money(fiat) for the best quality money

(gold and silver),that's what this all

about.Prices only usefull to calculate

how much ounces one can buy;the

more the better.Why settle for crap

money when you can save up

the real thing.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:38 | 866952 strannick
strannick's picture

Yeah, their calls are after-the-fact, anemic, or wrong.

"Then again, none of this should come as a surprise or even lead one to make investment decisions: after all it was just in September that the same person, in a report titled: "Price strength not on firm ground" said "We expect industrial demand to show some weakness and advise investors to avoid the metal" and concluded "We therefore prefer to be sellers at present levels and would reopen a position at or below 17.5/oz." Merely another confirmation that virtually every sellsider on Wall Street is merely a momentum riding, backward looking, chart monkey, and all those who seek original, contrarian thought are advised to stay very, very far from Wall Street "analysis."

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:45 | 866966 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

UBS, like many of the investment banks, has radically altered their view of economic strength.  Witness their recent increase in earnings estimates, price targets, etc.  Changing their view of industrial demand seems logical as a consequence of a change in their macro forecasts.  Investment demand that might be increased by a report such as this only helps those of us who are already holding.  "Hi-O Silver...Away!"

 

I miss the Lone Ranger.  Anyone know where I can find re-runs?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:45 | 867093 bronzie
bronzie's picture

youtube.com has snippets of just about every show you can think of

here's a Lone Ranger clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5xpQ84B30Q&feature=fvsr

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:53 | 867109 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

thanks, bronzie.  I needed that.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:54 | 867105 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

repeated

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:41 | 866956 Zeroexperience2010
Zeroexperience2010's picture

Just back from my bank here in CH, up to now delivery of Au and Ag bars took 1 or 2 days (if ordered after 3pm), I now have to wait until next Monday!

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:44 | 866964 Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

I hear a stampede over the hills fellas.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 10:46 | 866969 Cdad
Cdad's picture

As I have said before many times, I don't trade silver well.  However, I would watch out here...as here comes the stud man USD...and you know Blythe will not be far behind....

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:02 | 866996 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

does the link contain a virus?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:19 | 867039 Silversinner
Silversinner's picture

Only chart I use is the 650year silver chart.

Silver has been in a bearmarket for 600+

years and reduced to 0.5% in value in

2000.Such a valuable,precious metal for

almost nothing??Price has increased a little

to +/-3.5%so far.This historic bullmarket

has a long way to go and will be breathtaking.

Silver is now more usefull and needed

then ever before.With stockpiles depleting

and demand from industry and investers

rising..............................................

http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html

All time high for silver on this chart

$806 in 1477.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:42 | 867088 bronzie
bronzie's picture

"650year silver chart"

one of my favorite charts

the $806 high is in 1998 dollars - today that high is equivalent to $1081.93 according to the bls.gov inflation calculator

can I say "silver bitchez" twice in the same thread?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:27 | 867053 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

 

This is addressed to Tyler:

 

Can you please try to give us an update on the 3 silver manipulation lawsuits against JPM.

Are they months or years' away from court dates?

 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:30 | 867065 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

The only thing driving up commodity prices are speculators armed with cheap money and super fast computers. This is causing a havoc in the lives of rest of the population and pushing them towards poverty as they can no longer afford the basic necessities of life.

Regulators are too slow to react and take ages to identify and take measures to solve the problems.

Total ban on speculation is strictly required all over the world to bring relief to the rest of the population.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 11:58 | 867119 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Can we assume that buying physical silver to protect against the eroding dollar is not "speculation"?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 14:11 | 867507 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

Yes you can assume that.

Buying physical to preserve wealth (purchasing power) while the dollar loses value is not speculation, it's wealth preservation.

Speculation would be trading paper silver with no intent to deliver physical nor take delivery of physical.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:15 | 867344 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Speculation with Silver has been on the short side.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:31 | 867386 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Wow,

Your ignorance astounds me.  If we are running low on commodities, then the exact thing we need is HIGHER prices which will stimulate more production.  Why can't socialist morons leave markets alone?

http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 14:29 | 867569 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

You are getting junked because of your sweeping conclusion; but your point is valid.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:34 | 867802 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I guess thats why I have to wait for 30-40 minutes to pick up called in orders huh?.(24-48hrs in advance).

 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 12:59 | 867306 butthead
butthead's picture

The excitment in silver will really begin when we exceed $50 and the sheeple start getting in.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:11 | 867335 Mariposa de Oro
Mariposa de Oro's picture

Someone raised the question about fake/impure silver, and I didn't see where it was addressed other than buy Maples.  I also saw comments about blotchy looking ASEs.  I'm pretty new to all this, so my question:  Could we be buying less than .9999 silver in the new ASEs?  I've noticed that my 2010 ASEs don't ring like my Morgans.  Just wondering....thx

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:56 | 867458 A Texan
A Texan's picture

I don't know if anyone has done tests to see if any of the ASEs (or any other silver coins) are fake.  Not as much money in that yet, not like gold at nearly 50 times the price.  Does anyone know the equivalent of Tungsten for use in counterfeiting AG?  Palladium is closest in atomic weight, but obviously far more expensive.  I guess that the only way to cheat is to create a sandwich with a core of less than whatever silver purity the coin is represented to be, but unless you're dealing with something very close in weight, then weighing and measuring the coin will detect a fake very easily.  Anyhow, going to all of this effort for $30/oz. doesn't seem to make sense for anyone so inclined - and there's probably more money in simply jacking up premiums or selling a crap coin as a "collector's piece" without risking an encounter with the Secret Service. 

Note:  ASEs are only .999 pure.  The Canadian Maples are .9999.  However, you are buying exactly 1 Troy ounce of silver with either.

 

Me, I don't like to pay the huge premium, so I buy junk silver near spot from local dealers. 

 

Also, if anyone is concerned about the viability of the currency and believes that someday we'll use AG for transactions (albeit temporarily, until some new currency, backed by gold or silver, is produced and accepted), then you don't necessarily want to hold big coins like ASEs.  Granted, right now an ounce is roughly $30, but if it goes to $100 or $200/oz. in the future, how are you going to buy a gallon of milk and get change for it?  With junk silver, a dime has .07234 troy oz.; a quarter has 0.18084 troy oz.; a 90% half has 0.36169 troy oz.; a Morgan or Peace Dollar has 0.77344 troy oz.; a 40% half has 0.14789 troy oz.; and a War nickel has .056263 troy oz.  Easier to use in smaller denominations, no?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 14:33 | 867580 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Unfortunately, I fear it's slipshod craftsmanship, as the U.S. Fed swings further to the Left and neglects such paltry things as a country's currency in pursuit of more urgent matters.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:39 | 867816 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I have stopped buying Gold in 1oz coins, and am now concentrating on .25, and .5oz coins, @ 2.5-3% prem over spot, can't go wrong.The .25's are small enough they hide really well, and are reasonably priced, compared to 1oz coins.

Wed, 01/12/2011 - 01:55 | 869381 Mariposa de Oro
Mariposa de Oro's picture

Thanks to all who answered my question.

I knew I asked the right folks!
:-)

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 13:46 | 867429 QEsucks
QEsucks's picture

Prefer bullion to coins. If you go to Tulving, you'll see a 2.5-3.1% premium for coins(comparing gold products)Back I can't recall when,it was
5-7$/oz.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:24 | 867771 buzlightening
buzlightening's picture

UBS=U bastard slime!! Like I need these fraudsters to pick a winner for me!!  Been accumulating silver eagles for 3 years now and these rat basturd gangster banksters never recommended accumulating any physical!!  Sell 'em all now and would have a better percentage return on anything the banksters ever recommended! Hard currency bvs paper ponzi and the ponzi is losing in natural consequence of  sound honest money financial laws broken for decades! 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 15:30 | 867791 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

Heh-heh

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 19:06 | 868499 FB24601
FB24601's picture

Only one thing, the writer suggested guys to wait for $25...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!