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Ugly 30 Year Comes At 4.32%, Gaping 5 Bps Tail To WI, Lowest Bid To Cover In A Year
Today's $16 billion 30 Year auction was about as bad as they get: the yield was 4.32% (highest since May 13), a 5 bps tail to the WI, the Bid To Cover was 2.31, a collapse from October, and the worst since November 2009. Primary Dealers and Directs saved the day taking down 62%, with Indirects responsible for 38.4%. Altogether, this was about as ugly as it could get. This is what happens when the general (Bernanke) does not give marching orders in advance (POMO Schedule).
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2.31 bid to cover. Santelli gave it a D minus before CNBC quickly cut to a segment about Ford being "back on track". LOL.
The idiots can't even get their metaphors straight. "Back on track", like it's a choo choo train or something.
and stocks rally
Yes, because the dollar dropped like a rock on that auction result.
OzzieDollar is about to dip below parity. Expect an express elevator on that pair.
:D
Was watching Bloomberg - they don't even mention these auctions in real time. Still haven't. Weird.
No worries.
Interest rates are STILL at 40-year lows, stoking animal spirits and the dip buyers keep jumping back into the Wall St. casinos even after these scary selloffs.
I see that the play of the day is the cloud stocks.
FFIV still pinned at the highs, unfazed by fizzled bond auctions, inflation vs. deflation debates, PIIGS blowups, etc.
The Long Bond is Jim Sinclair's last and final pillar to fall before Gold takes off.
CTXS may have more upside than VMW...bubblicious
Nothing to worry about, the fed will buy them all anyway. What could possibly go wrong ?
green shoots baby!
Everything must be good...how else do you explain that the number of federal workers earning $150K or more has soared tenfold in the past five years and doubled since Obama took office...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-11-10-1Afedpay10_ST_N.htm
It looks like Tyler may have a couple of new charts to add to his 'flash crash' series. What an amazing couple of stick saves.
QE2 is DESIGNED to make treasury yields rise.
Um, no.
Um, yes. Unless of course you think Bernanke works for the US people.
QE2 ain't working. Brian Sack must
be on vacation. Good one, Ben.
Bwahahahahahaha.
Those long rates are really coming
down, eh boyz? Berspanke is incompetent.
what can he do? after all he is not superman...they keep coming from everywhere...ireland, brasil, china...and on top of that the hedge fund managers are awakening up and learning about gold...
there is so much you can do to hold a tide...
That ain't what he thinks...
He still won't be able to admit his faults when it all comes unravelled. He'll be sitting among the smoking ruins and stammering like Fonzi --
I thought he was superman based on
POMO. Since yields have gone straight
up since he announced QE2, we will
have to call him Bozo-Ben.
Well Arius I sure am glad Prof Bernanke gets to perform his lab experiment without constraints into mad money printing and buying everything in sight, after all only millions of americans lives hang in the balance of Weimar Part Deux.
Whew, that was close! Market started selling off until they realized the dollar was tanking equating to BUY STOCKS! as always.
I just got to thinking what Cramer does with all his spare time now that his flock of sheeple know that in truth, he can not pick stocks. They do not watch his show, and they do not buy his books. I imagine that he would panic and would still want some attention, he would still want a spotlight. So what if Cramer began trolling the blogosphere? For starters, I know that through his avatar he would be flip flopping calls like a fish on a dock. You remind me of what Cramer would be if he was trolling.
PS, the dollar just had its ass handed to it on a golden platter. Harry, how would you have your precious stocks paid to you. Dollars? You will be the last one accepting them Harry Wanger, what good is that for you.
I could buy that.
Me too... I wonder who junked him? lol
Nothing long right now. Was long SDS going into lunch time from last Friday. Make dollars where you can. More useless dollars are better than less, right?
I don't get the logic of people who won't play the markets and make MORE dollars because the value of the dollar is dropping. That's fine if you're in PM's (I have been since 2002) but for those sitting in fear on dollars, you might as well make MORE of them by playing the market.
I would like to step up here and give it up for Cramer. Jim Cramer really understands money-flows in equities and he is a master at sector rotation. It was what got me interested in watching him when I was developing an ETF-sector rotation chart.
Basically, I stole it right out of the back of his book, applied some Chinese philosophy to it and was done. I'll let you know in about ten years if it works.
Cramer can't pick indiviual stocks, though, especially in this environment. Don't discount his wisdom in the future once these crazy markets settle down and there are again such things as sector differentials, instead of everythng constantly ramped up to the highest ramptivity.
The only investment advice I take from him is to stay diversified. That is why I have more than one type of canned soup, more than one type of bean/rice/pasta, and I hold my monie in various coins, of various metals. Thank you James Cramer!
Exactly, and my system works with that idea, as well. It is based on the Theory of the Five Elements from Chinese medicine. As you roll into sectors, you're closing out sectors at the top and buying into sectors that have bottomed. Rolling in and rolling out of sectors assures diversity and automatic dollar-cost averaging on the way up (out-of...) and the way down (into...) at the same time.
Otherwise, Cramer's an ass-clown. All I can say is,
"Thanks, Jimmy!"
:D
Ass-clown? You do him too much honor;)
PD's taking down 62%? Time to load up on all the PD favorite stocks.
Is this evidence that the bond vigilantes are finally waking up?
Let's see how long it will be before the HFT algos shift from 'buy' to 'sell.' Right now, nothing appears to be happening. Strange...
My husband says there's no such thing as an ugly 30 yr. old.
lol
According to CNBC, this was just run of the mill expected news:
Bond investors predictably shied away from a sale of long bonds Wednesday, following the Fed away from the long end of the curve and into shorter maturities.
Yeah right Tyler. All your crap about the 30 year going flat and being bid to 0% is complete BS. The curve is steepening andrates are now going tropo. When will you cover and exit your long treasury trade Tyler??
If the Fed loses the 30 Year, it won't go flat. It will go inverted.
Dude. The Fed announced a rules change. Stay up to speed or just chill and watch the blinking lights.
All the market cares about is the 2 pm POMO announcement. Everything else short of a Black Swan is white noise.
.
Black swan? No problem there either, Timmah has cases of white Krylon under his desk.
So Ben will want to tank stocks to drive interest in the 30 year but he has to work against the falling dollar that he pushed off a cliff.
ramp up resumes tomorrow, opium ben will inject the necessary dosage.. watch out ES 1250 (61.8 fibo of bear), there we should see the fireworks...
Tomorrow?? Seems to be doing a pretty good job right now. Will really take off after POMO.
need to see some shake up..
its only a dollar trade after all -- GS cleaned the stops and sucked in shorts below 1.37 EUR, now it is churning-burning time.. if EUR takes out 1.39, will see a pretty decent ramp-up... gonna wait and see..
Depending on how you measure, we already are near the retracement level at 1228.
Go ahead Ben, ignore ICBM warnings, keep pumping hand over fist.
When the curve is steep enough to provide the banks with sufficient carry, the sell-off in bonds will suddenly end.
At 420+ bps of carry, we are almost there.
IMHO, there is significant value now in zero coupon Treasuries. The YTM on the 2/15/2029's is approaching 4.50%.
Hey, looks like everybody and his
brother must have been short
going into the auction. Uh, oh
Are they buying this post auction out of embarassment
or is Bill Gross in the house?
Load up on ammo - currently deflationary with mail-in-rebate - by the time you get your money back it may be worthless.
http://www.remington.com/pages/news-and-resources/rebates-and-promotions...
http://www.winchester.com/library/special-offers/Pages/In-the-Bag-with-A...
http://www.federalpremium.com/promotions/promotions.aspx
For whatever reason...
The horrid 30-year auction inspired many to start buying tech stocks, most of which pay no dividends, and some with P/E ratios over 150.
Those would be the HFT machines, robo.
Plus the dollar shot straight down after the auction making the dollar/equity trade the hot ticket.
Better have some stops in place Robo...even your Nucor and Altria are going to be blown to bits if the Euro tanks.
If the stupid markets would do their job, the yield would be in the 8% range.
And now the good news from the deficit commission. The mortgage interest deduction is on the table, as I, and many others here at ZH, have long predicted. Housing to swoop lower yet.
Oh how nice would be the perfect storm in housing IF:
1: FannyMae and similar are shut down.
2: Minimum down payment restored to 20%.
3: Everyone under water stops paying and walks away.
4: Banks [are forced to] dump their backlog onto market.
5: Tax deduction for interest on mortgage payments removed.
This would set up the biggest boom in housing market... ever.
Of course, that boom would happen after the above events caused the price of houses dropped 75% to approximately their appropriate prices. Then... finally... honest, ethical, prudent, productive, responsible folks would be able to buy a house. And they would... in droves. Bring it on.
There will be fireworks when the Euro finally breaks down from present levels. Bernanke has devised a game that only works well if the Dollar continues to depreciate. He is scrambling to keep the all the pieces glued together by bubble gum but he better start chewing faster.
Chew faster Ben! CHEW!
.
maybe the Fed is trying to force the Congress to "be good citizens." I mean, all this condemnation worldwide might be hurting their feewings
Today's flash crashes:
MOTR
GBX
CYD
Yesterday's/Todays's
VHC
DORM
Constitutional deliberation fail:
http://fellowshipofminds.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/best-cartoon-ever1.jpg
So who's buying that crap?
The FED is buying 62%... The ECB probably 30% and stupid Americans for their 401k what's left.
Does that sound about right?
It's all gunna crah and burn very soon.
Now the plan is bring the market back down so that everyone can be "surprised" on the next POMO, having bought on the dip here for the ramp up. Clockwork.
See, market now "surprised" that Fed is buying $105B in bonds next month. Up, up and away!
cherry pop? Please. There are women on this site.
...and apparently one horny one.
Oils getting a bit pricey.....