An Ugly Day For "Rose-Colored Glasses" Haute Couture

Tyler Durden's picture

From Peter Tchir Of TF Market Advisors

The big question is how many people are long stocks because they played the 200 day moving average bounce?  We have had at least 3 chances in the last week for investors to buy the moving average.  It seems like a lot of people had stopped buying the dip during the relentless march down for stocks, but everyone seemed to jump on the bandwagon that the 200 DMA was a big support for stocks.  I think a lot of investors got sucked in and allocated capital and are now weak longs.  One group waited until Tuesday when the market really seemed strong and 'was destined to test resistance at 1300' before buying in.  The other group of weak longs are those who typically don't play technicals but found the 200 DMA bounce theory too compelling to resist.  It is always difficult to trade when losing money, but the ability to make really dumb decisions goes up when we have positions that were put on for reasons that we don't normally follow.  The technicians are used to these trades, it is what they do.  The 'fundamentalists' are not and are more likely to react badly to losing money here.  People must be scratching their heads a little, since it seems, according the rose colour glasses world i)  Greece fixed, ii) Contagion avoided, iii) economic soft patch is only a soft patch and no risk of double dip, and iv) Bernanke will be there for us.

It seems clear that the sovereign debt crisis is far from over.  SOVX is back to recent wides.  Greece may be resolved for now, but that doesn't fix the problems in Ireland and Portugal.  Greece may not be the first domino to fall to spread the contagion, but there is nothing to stop Ireland or Portugal from being the triggering event.  To believe that saving Greece ends the contagion risk, is just wrong, it just shifts (for now) the domino most likely to start the chain reaction.  And to me, at least, it is still not clear that Greece has been fixed yet.  One good development at least, seems that the market is back to focusing on who owns the bonds, and realizing contagion will come from losses on bonds and not some mythical CDS exposure.

Credit markets still feel weak, and we are working on a piece that shows how time and again, credit markets have long slow grinds better followed by short big drops when liquidity goes  away.

I am cutting some SPY short just to be safe here in case there is more 200 DMA money, but will add again on any bounces or short some HYG depending on how they trade relative to each other.

This oil release thing seems a bit silly to me, and if anything, is just another example of governments failing to 'wait til they see the whites of their eyes' mentality.

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The Axe's picture

what people????

augie's picture

I think Algo's count as people now. 

Frankie Carbone's picture

Let's wait for the landmark SCOTUS opinion on that. My money is on Scalia writing the majority opinion. 

GS HFTA vs United States. 

(Hereforth known as "Algo v United States")

augie's picture

If that Wallmart Decision is any indication. 

jeff montanye's picture

you and augie have it about right.

JW n FL's picture

Herd Mentality Rulez Bitchez!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TruthInSunshine's picture

Bernank gave the warning to get the hell out of Dodge to even the non-insider crowd - most likely to avoid being accused of not doing so after the full meltdown of equities occurs in what will be an election season (he can say "roll the tape"; and yes, I know that the Fed Head is 'non-political' /sarc/) - a month ago.

The spread between how fundamentally awful the economy is and equity valuations (some of the shittiest equities on the face of the globe have risen the most in the past 30 months - I'm talking truly insolvent, garbage can companies), not to mention how much risk-on appetite there is (much of it backed by no-interest loaned fiatskis - and much of that on the assumption that if gambled and lost there will be another ginormous bailout) has never been greater - never.

Bernanke/Paulson/Geithner/Congress pumped and pumped their little hearts out for the BSDs on Wall Street, and those guys got paid and have cashed out of the Bernank Casino, pawning their paper off on the bagholders, and now Bernanke has cover to let 'risk on' dumb money sheep - the kind always late to the party - lose their asses, as he, Obama, and Congress can play the 'we are not favoring Wall Street' into election season, and just to prove that they are "no fans of Wall Street" (now that the big players on the inside are already risk off), they'll let it all burn.

It's a fun, easy and criminal way of making money if you're an insider, and it's a real Ponzi if you're not.

eureka's picture

Amen, TRUTH SAID IT.  Anyone long stocks will get shredded. The Next QE IS the end.

eatthebanksters's picture

New York lamposts will soon be decorated with the swinging bodies of morally vacant and corrupt banksters...justice will eventually prevail, unfortunely cowboy justice is usually much harsher in its application.

jeff montanye's picture

i doubt it, although a single assassination of a truly connected member of tptb would get their very rapt attention.  probably make the date famous too.

Frankie Carbone's picture

I almost feel bad taking their vacation money. 


hedgeless_horseman's picture

It is called bait for a reason.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

They are going fast with only a limited selection left. Hurry or you'll miss out.

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

I thought Tyler Durden wore Rose Sunglasses?

Cognitive Dissonance's picture


I stand corrected.

I am also Jack's sense of impending doom notwithstanding the rose colored glasses.

bigdumbnugly's picture

just think of them as being blood-red.

TradingJoe's picture

Few days ago I said load up on PUTSSSSS! Really happy NOW!

augie's picture

+1 we break that 1252 level i'm going to riverdance down West Street. Come and get me Squiddy!

Biosci's picture

Greece is resolved?  All they had was a confidence vote.  Mr. Tchir is getting a little ahead of himself.

BeerWhisperer's picture

Queue Deer in Headlight.... PLEASE

gordengeko's picture

What do gay deer have to do with price of oil in greece?

augie's picture

That reads oddly like the intro of an off-color joke. 

gordengeko's picture

Why did you have to go bring race into it?  Just because deer are brown?

augie's picture

 it's cool man, i'm Part Chilean. It's P.C. for me to make jokes like that. 

gordengeko's picture

FYI : no gay albino or brown deer were psychologically harmed when reading these satirical comments.  :)

jeff montanye's picture

no but they are getting restless as they are still waiting in line.

Ivanovich's picture

How much do you want to wager that the big boy banks were out a long time ago?

Village Smithy's picture

I'll take that bet. With 100,000:1 odds.

jeff montanye's picture

qe2 in its entirety looks like the distribution top.

bingaling's picture

This is just speculation that the shit might hit the fan and may trade sideways for some time until the uncertainty of greece is taken out of the picture . IMO the EU will keep doing what it has pushing the default another 6 months out at a time until something gives

SparkySC's picture

Bernanke will be their to apply either lube or sand... god forbid both. 



Village Smithy's picture

Well it seems that bernack has managed to enlist the IEA on the plunge protection team. Nice stick save !


Josh Randall's picture

Love seeing JPM below that magical $40 threshold - even on it's Bullish SNAP news (i.e. more new customers)

topcallingtroll's picture

I am most definitely a weak long.

I.could be scared out of the market with a loud noise.

d00daa's picture

What exactly are you still "long" in this market?

treemagnet's picture

I'll bet they come back at 3:00 EST for the stick save.  Fuckers.

RobotTrader's picture

Another day of hell for:


- General Jim

- Eric King

- John Hathaway

- Peter Schiff


"But Jim, you promised....."

alien-IQ's picture

and don't forget Robotrader...who a mere two days ago said "I'm going long".

you wouldn't want to be kept of such an illustrious list.

d00daa's picture

Says the asshole that advocates "going long" just as the dead cat bounces into the 50DMA.

Stopped out yet genius??  LMFAO

alien-IQ's picture

yeah he's pretty damn quick to point out other peoples losses but he's pretty damn reluctant to admit to any losses of his own.

In fact, I can't recall a single post where he has admitted to taking a loss. But many many celebrations of his gains.

Where I come from...we call that "bullshit".

alien-IQ's picture

"It all looks beautiful to me"

Stevie Wonder

Boilermaker's picture

Don't fret...the bid-up calvalry will show up by the close with an unexplainable rally.

Why in the hell would they stop now?

Its the Vatican Stupid's picture

if you want QE3, you're gonna have to BEG for it, bitchez!!!

Incubus's picture

It's all gonna come down:  the temple is being propped up so it can be looted more thoroughly.  They pushed, just to see how much they could get away with, and they've found that they can do pretty much anything they want.  The "outrage" of the people is limited to numbers that cannot effect the change that is needed to detach the parasite upper classes from this husk of a socio-political system.

And when there is nothing left to loot, they'll let it fall apart.  Don't worry though, they'll have their next approved system ready to be implemented, and the dumb masses will accept that system just because they'll associate "rebuilding" society as some sort of opportunity to improve it—which never turns out to be the case.  

We've got thousands of years of the history of civilizational ruins to see that we're not any different from the rest of 'em. 

...full of sound and fury.  Signifiying nothing.



Caviar Emptor's picture

There's plenty o trouble bubbling up, just under the surface. Amazing how much is not being reported. More than usual. Means the amount of trouble is worse than usual. 

The Biflationary vice-grip is tightening and now it's really makin' them sweat! Bernanke saying deflation is licked. Gulp. Sweat. And oh yeah we got oil coming out of our ears, so let's do the radical thing: dip into the SPR. And hope it works. Gulp! But the numbers all show different. I don't even need to provide links to the numbers in the US and global economy that are all flashing red. Yet with all the printed dollars in the world prices for necessities of life and doing business are going through the roof. 

Look for some really scary news to come out soon