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UK Pension Burden Getting Lighter?
Patrick Collinson of the Guardian blogs, Despite public sector pension reform the burden is getting lighter:
In
the fantasy world of right-wing commentators, a bloated public sector
has saddled the taxpayer with a £1tn liability for lavish pension
payouts for town hall pen-pushers.
But in the real world, public sector workers are entitled to say: "Pensions crisis? What crisis?". On page 23 of this week's 200-page Hutton report there is a projection of how much public sector pensions
will cost as a percentage of GDP in future years. I've reproduced it
below. Even taking into account different assumptions for life
expectancy and workforce growth, the cost of public sector pensions has
peaked, and between now and 2060 will fall year in, year out.
Even
in the worst-case cost scenario, where we all live longer and workers
survive Osborne's axe, in 2060 public sector pensions will cost around
1.5% of the GDP, compared with 1.9% today.
The
truth is that public sector pensions have, over the past decade, been
trimmed back again and again, so the potential future burden has
already reduced. Many schemes have increased the age at which members
can take their pension. Higher contribution rates from 2012, likely to
average 3%, have already been announced and will save around £2.8bn from
the public purse. The biggest cut (or fiddle, many would argue) has
been the switch from using RPI to CPI for cost-of-living increases once
the worker has retired.
So why is Lord Hutton, a Labour peer, so keen to ally with the Tories and cut even further?
His
basic rationale is fairness. In the 1950s, after a career in the NHS a
woman could expect to spend around 30% of her adult life in
retirement. Today the same NHS worker will spend 45% of her adult life
in retirement. Then, public sector workers generally earned less than
workers in the private sector. Today, they generally earn the same or
more. They live longer, too. A graph on page 109 of the report shows
that, at age 60, the typical worker (male or female) who has had a job
in the public sector will live three to four years more than the
average.
Hutton wants a fair rebalancing between the private and
public sectors. Despite reports, he didn't explicitly call for an
increase in contribution rates. Instead he says the public sector should
keep the safety net of a guaranteed pension, but base it on average
earnings over a working life, rather than the salary in the final year.
The
main losers from this will be high-flyers in the public sector, such
as town hall chiefs, who spend their final years in high-salaried
positions. They are hugely burdensome on the public sector – a
£70,000-a-year pension costs £2m to finance. That these people should be
asked to contribute more or accept less seems only fair.
Most
private sector workers would be seriously grateful for a
career-average pension. Now that Hutton has completed his look at the
public sector, can he campaign for private employers to bring in career
average schemes?
It's right to fight against higher contribution
rates for lower-paid workers. Fight, too, against the sneaky switch to
CPI from RPI. But fight against a career average scheme? Fight against
retiring at the same age as private sector workers? It's not worth the
battle.
This is an excellent comment because
it tones down the rhetoric of the "pension crisis". I do think there is
an element of fairness that Hutton is trying to establish with these
proposals, but how much savings are you going to get by moving towards
career average schemes? As you can see, it won't make a huge difference
as public sector pension costs have already peaked. So why go though
with these reforms? The government is using austerity measures to cut
costs wherever it can, including public pensions. But I agree with Mr.
Collinson, this battle isn't worth it.
»
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That's great news! Given this study, I'm sure that no one due to receive a public pension in Great Britain would mind if the law were changed to cap the government pension liability to 1.5% of GDP, rather than whatever it takes to pay the promised benefits.
“In the fantasy world of right-wing commentators”-------- Darn those vast right wing agitators on ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and NPR, or comments of Washington Post, Boston Globe, NY Times, SF Gate, and and and Huffy, Politico, White House, Joe Biden, Unions and and and.
Even in the worst-case cost scenario, where we all live longer and workers survive Osborne's axe, in 2060 public sector pensions will cost around 1.5% of the GDP, compared with 1.9% today.
Realy? Even in the worst-case scenario? What assumptions have they made with regard to the growthrate in GDP i wonder. Probably grim indeed.............
good news from patrick - we're not defrauding you quite as much - cheer up
Inflation will take care of future pension promises,
just print the difference until every pension
equals one loaf of bread.See promblem fixed
accept for the pensioners,but who cares nowdays.
Leo, Look at the graph you provide. It looks like so many others that are being tossed around. It shows that 2010 was the peak and everything is going down from here. Nothing to worry about, right?
Wrong. Look at the same chart in five years. This improvement is not going to happen. The ratio is dependant on GDP assumptions that will not be realized.
Show me what that graph looked like in 2005 or 2000. Each one showed that the peak had passed....
I have personally known federal government workers that are transferred to higher cost of living areas of the country in the last few years of their service to get the highest possible paycheck, work the minimum number of years, and retire with the highest possible pension. The best solution is to give an appropriate match against wages into a 401(k) or other defined contribution plan, and then cut their damn wages down to something normal.
ukmetman; don't forget, also, if the guardian didn't have a monopoly of advertising thousands of totlally pointless government job (misnomer,sorry) vacancies it would be insolvent
..still looking for every scrap of good news in amongst the lies, propaganda and Black Swan party eh Leo?
forget the fact that the pensions funds are all going to vaporize in the coming collapse, at least they'll only have to pay a bit less in 50 years or so.. :)
sweet.
Some of you guys may not know that the Guardian is an extreme left, financially illiterate newspaper. So, if this article leaves you with the impression that the future for pensioners in the UK is a rosey one, I suggest you remember that the editorial policy of this publication is pro-union, pro-government employees, and pro-big fat tax payer funded pensions for all.
+++
A sign of intelligence...
more left wing crappola, only to be expected from the guardian.
if the public services were run by competent ceo's, instead of institutionalised world improvers, using cost/ benefit analysis directed at the whole population instead of the preferred few, i can guarrantee 35% of all public employees would be surplus to requirements.
Ah......now if only the GDP number used in the calculations were real.....Ah
"They are hugely burdensome on the public sector – a £70,000-a-year pension costs £2m to finance."
Wait...whaaa???
Is the author making the suggestion that the two million pounds is not stuffed in a drawer somewhere within the bowels of government to be drawn down over time and that it must be financed somehow by...gasp!...evil bankers & pension fund managers?...why this will never do, socialists everywhere will need to down a full bottle of aspirin when they try and wrap their "collective heads" around that...LOL.
They have my sympathy, reading the leftist Guardian always makes my head hurt too...as the word "scheme" mostly carries a negative connotation throughout the world just as "burdensome on the public sector" implies no burden whatsoever to the taxpayer.
That's It!! Enough!! Don't make me tell you again...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUjjFETMTxE
;-)
Same as it ever was...same as it ever was.
One would have thought Leo et al would have desisted after your exposure of the US federal ponzi public sector "trusts" of unmarketable securities in which Black Rock "manages" to skim a fee off the top of what are, again, unmarketable securities.
Maybe it's the same in the UK...same as it ever was...LOL.
I cannot wait until I am "invited" to purchase long term Treasuries by a muscular forearmed Uncle Sam.
Same as it ever was, indeed.
Winning! Duh!
Lord Hutton, unaccountable and unelected, orderd that facts concerning the violent death of a citizen, Dr Kelly, the weapons expert, should be kept secret from the British public for 70 years. Is he a man we should trust?
Lord Hutton, unaccountable and unelected, orderd that facts concerning the violent death of a citizen, Dr Kelly, the weapons expert, should be kept secret from the British public for 70 years. Is he a man we should trust?
Hutton is an establishment shill, and has been creaming off the state all his life. If the state is on the line for all the promises it makes, failure is baked into the mix.
When "Average Joe" sees large numbers of ex state workers living in retired comfort, while they have to go on slogging their guts out to just put food on their table, revolution will be in the air.
We here at ZH know that Ponzi's don't last. The UK is bust, and we are just waiting for the bailiffs to make their move. We will then all be forced to live in feudal poverty, with Lord Hutton being one of the few living in "the big house" surrounded by spiked iron railings.
2060?
Hilarious.
Central planners can't even operate with a balanced budget for 1 quarter, let alone predict where we'll be 200 quarters from now.
WOW, can't wake to see if your results come true by 2060! Who gives a fuck what happens in 2060!
Had CNN on tonight doing my homework.
Spitzer says its called "Shared Sacrifice" in Japan.
Cash is safe because Japan will just raise taxes and print more money to create demand for dollars ($).<<< He thinks
I am really trying to report this stuff! (To Promote ZH)
I admire your passion, bB.
:D
What GDP growth rate is assumed in that model? if the GDP growth expectations are too optimistic, the cost will be more each year.
"public sector pensions will cost around 1.5% of the GDP, compared with 1.9% today."
a payment to union members or any other members of society who have been able to negotiate/extort favourable contracts at the expense of taxpayers such that their benefits can be measured as a percentage of GDP is beyond obscene.
Nice Try Mr. K but the battle is worth it unless you consider 1.9% of GDP to be trivial. Why not ask the granny living in a flat in the east end how she feels about the cost of cat food and/or dog food (depending on her preference / whats on sale this week).
In the fantasy world of Leo K., Greece is in fine financial shape and shouldn't be shorted, exponential growth doesn't exist, union extortionists are fine public workers who deserve anything they and their crooked politician friends can extort from the taxpayers, and estimates of future GDP are real.
In the year 2060 ? Everyone here will be dead. What a stupid, false projection.
Criminal Banksters and Snivel Servants, the Parasites that have killed the Host.
that's only 49 years from now
why not add a zero for Hutton and another zero for Leo ...4,900 years for this pension plan to work out right and it'll still be a piece of crap
Ya totally! That's 1.9 percent of GDP that can't be given to the banks, who I'm sure will at some point in their infinite mercy give it to granny so she can have gravy with her dog food. I guess it depends on how many pensioners there are, if there are 6 then them getting 1.9 percent of GDP is obscene, if 25% of the population is pensioners then it sounds low.
We are not talking about banks we are talking about pensions and you little lefties including leo pull out your talking points. Taxpayers are fed up paying for Mercedes Benz benefits for govt union slackers.
I guess I better take early retirement. I always wanted a Mercedes!
trying to rearrange the deckchairs on the Titanic again Leo Kockupalotis?
Hutton is a dumb crone, Westminster is stuffed with them, writing a report given to him to rubber stamp by his ministerial paymasters (who are running out of other peoples hard-earned money to piss away on over-rewarding their Public Empire). We can therefore assume that whatever the politicians have given him is wrong because everything politicians do is wrong and like you behind the curve.
Public pensions are going bankrupt, like everything else politicians (mis)manage. I hope when they do it shuts you up for good you snivelling brain-dead Canadian crone
These are UK pensions I think, I agree that they should average all the years for base pay, I don't know how the UK does it. And I'm not a little lefty lol. Well maybe a bit lefty. Cause honoring contracts is left wing now. Also rule of law. And evolution. Science. NPR lol.
Honoring contracts is sooooooooooooooo 2006! Where have you been for the last few years? That fad went out in 2008!
Yep...right about the time fidicuary law was turned on it's head (BAC/Merril etc.)...and right about the time legal & contractually secured bond holders in GM suffered a beat down from an extra-constitutional...governmental...cabinet level Car Czar who was under investigation for taking kick backs from Wall Street crony's for steering public pension funds toward said crony's.
The key point of the Hutton Report is a sound one, which has been long overdue as an adjustment to US Federal Civil Service and Military pensions, and that is the averaging of salary over careers. There is no reason why the last three or ten years of service should play a larger role in calculations that the 30-year average. We in the US have already made that change in Social Security: Those born before 1950 are receiving payments based on the best 10 years. Those born after? It is based on the best 30 years. That is a brutal change based on birth year, but better than no change. It should be run through all the civil service and military pensions for obvious reasons. Two fortunate promotions during the last four years of service shouldn't have an exhorbitant effect on the final pension calculation.