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  • Tim Knight from...
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UK Stagflation Worsens (Cold Blamed) After GDP Revised Even Lower, LSE Promptly Halts Trading

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Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:39 | 996493 Josephine29
Josephine29's picture

Yes yet again the so-called economic experts got it wrong and the numbers were revised further down rather than up! However one analyst feels that there is a deeper message from the UK's economic figures of this week.

These figures reminded me of a section from the most recent Monetary Policy Committee’s minutes which I quoted yesterday.

Nominal domestic demand had increased by 6.8% in the four quarters to Q3, accompanied by nominal consumption growth of 6.3%, in part reflecting the VAT increase in January 2010. These were both above their average growth rates for the decade before 2007.

My point is that if nominal domestic demand is surging at a rate shown above and yet real economic growth is turning negative then the gap will be filled by inflation.


He feels that the real danger is stagflation and the figures are starting to agree with him.....

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:55 | 996522 TeMpTeK
TeMpTeK's picture

"The weather is the last refuge of the scoundrels"


Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:39 | 996494 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture


Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:40 | 997116 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture


Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:45 | 997335 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture


Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:41 | 996497 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

Queue the Milli Vanilli.....

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:42 | 996498 pendragon
pendragon's picture

as you point out it was the coldest winter in a century so you would expect there to be some impact on the growth data. this is most certainly not a temporary setback whatever the pmi data may indicate. consumer confidence is the single most important economic statistic in the UK and that is still plumbing the depths. yesterdays cbi retail trends data points to tough times in the near future.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:58 | 996523 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Yeh, yeh, I happen to live in the UK, and we had an extremely cold patch the previous year (I was stuck in Gatwick for 12 hours waiting for my damn plane to clear), and the year before that (absolutely no traffic moving in early Feb 2009), but yet the winter is a TOTAL SURPRISE every year.

It's a convenient excuse, and that's about it.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:19 | 996555 pendragon
pendragon's picture

well it's fair to make a weather allowance in this case and it's quantified. i'm not talking up the economy and nobody is hiding behind the weather because there is an estimate of its impact.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:35 | 996575 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Given the adverse weather condition in 2009 and 2010, the economic impact on 2011 shouldn't have come as a surprise. We even escaped relatively unharmed compared to continental Europe, but that is conveniently ignored as well.

Remember this? 2010.



Fri, 02/25/2011 - 10:05 | 996660 pendragon
pendragon's picture

as mentioned weather effect is quantified so nobody is using it as an excuse. in US data that has been blamed on weather there has been no attempt at measuring its impact even though seaonal adjustments are far more meaningful so that is a legitimate whinge where this isn't.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:33 | 996581 Thomas
Thomas's picture

When the weather is bad the estimates should include it. If not, they should all be fired for total incompetence. Thus, a miss is a miss.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:57 | 996524 sudzee
sudzee's picture

The war on global warming has been won. Next up will be a war on the next ice age again.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:41 | 996499 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Hey you can't eat snow!

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:27 | 996568 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Dont Eat the Yellow Snow" Frank Zappa

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:42 | 996500 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Is there any way to kill the squid?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:43 | 996501 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

sounds like a page out of a future American exchange "shut down".


"Due to market NOT going up, we have determined something MUST be drastically wrong.  All trading will be suspended until strange and unimaginable selling glitch stops."

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:45 | 996504 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Who, in their right mind would trade in an on-the-fly-rule-changing farce of a market like this?

Madness. Price Discovery?
So old school.
Momentum (or total lack thereof) is the new word in town.
Quicker and quicker with random swings to throw out the weak hands.



Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:28 | 996573 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

One is better off in Vegas. In Vegas they don't change the rules while the dice are in the air.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:57 | 996638 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

++  Good one..

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:47 | 996507 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture


Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:50 | 996517 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

"The price is what Joe Stalin says is the price."

--Comrade Joseph Stalin, Moscow Brothel, Circa 1944 AD 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:00 | 996527 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

In the soviet countries the price of items was literally chiseled into the products, I remember seeing pots, pans, cups, having the price impressed into them

I was like 5 or 6 then and I thought to my self what if you wanted to sell the item for a different price ? My father told me well you can't

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:15 | 996552 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I am pretty sure the US version of that involves Fed/Treasury interventions in the commodity markets on demand from big connected users.  Then they make margin calls or take losses from the printing press.  For example:  Airline A wants to hedge fuel cheap.  The Gov comes in and slams oil futures.  Oil company B can't make a profit.  The Gov runs oil up so the oil company can hedge.  Connected asswipe C gets forewarning of all interventions (Soros, Rogers) and makes money both ways.  The gov eats the losses with printed money.  I am almost 100% certain that is how we subsidize US corporations.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:01 | 996531 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Unless you're with a beautiful whore like Benjamin Franklin in Paris. When he asked the brothel lady the going price it ranged from 150-200, depending on the choice of merchandise by client. As Franklin surmised on coming out from the hot house...whatever the price range announced its always 200 what you finally pay...as the girl you choose is by definition 'the special one'! That's market economics for Comrade Stalin!

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:05 | 996535 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

chomsky on mass uprising in america



Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:07 | 996540 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The reason why the LSE has a glitch is that they recently married the Toronto stock exchange. Now the Canuck pizza pie has hit the fans and those english trader boys are driving on the left while the Canucks refuse to do anything but drive on the right. It'll take some time to sort this out. They need dual drive with reverse angle fuse/fail safety  control.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:14 | 996549 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i am just giving info....sorry off topic....right now on ebay there is no product, silver bullion or silver coinage that is available to bid were the auction is about to expire.....most are 12 hours to days away...i have never seen this before....also td amer. trde has seemed to chamge and slow down the cash side...i.e...selling a stock but not having funds immediatly avail. to use again for further trading, were not talking about w/drawling funds, just trading...there appear to be subtle changes happening...more snimal heading for the hill signs? anyone else notice abnormalities? 


sweet aced the captcha without consulting einstein

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:21 | 996559 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

i've bought on ebay for years but less now - it gets more dodgy by the year and if you have a problem with a sale, they dont care - just count their money. yeah paypal is ok - i always weigh the bullion on accurate scales and care with the seller obviously

hey the uk is one country i'd pick to go totally feral before the usa.
more unemployed foreign born males standing about than the standing army....

howz it going fellas, n essex girls?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:43 | 996614 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Here is a current Ebay search for 'replica silver dollars'... 552 items, most made in China... Why are these jokers not being prosecuted for counterfieting?


Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:22 | 996561 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

It's funny how they can say the weather impact was -0,5 when they didn't even see it coming in the first place.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:29 | 996574 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

ooops..they now call it a Technical Glitch (from crap Nothing but crap)

London Stock Exchange Hit by Technical Glitch




Fri, 02/25/2011 - 09:39 | 996600 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

If you believe gov stats, or any stats for that matter, you should read this...

“Changes in consumers’ total spending power down to the last billion or less (i.e., variation of less than one-half of one percent) are reported and taken seriously. Price indexes for wholesale and retail prices are shown to second decimals, even though there have been so many computing steps that the rounding-off errors alone may preclude such a degree of precision. Unemployment figures of several millions are given down to the last 1,000s (i.e., one-hundredths of one percent ‘accuracy’), when certainly 100,000s, or in some cases perhaps the millions, are in doubt.”

Oskar Morgenstern


Fri, 02/25/2011 - 10:26 | 996704 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The UK had / has one of the most disastrous energy policies in the known universe - all to satisfy the host organism withen its bowels known as the City of London.

Its gifted boffin culture was almost completly eliminated by the late 70s while the London school of ecobullshit thrived on its entrails.

Any domestic wealth other then London's global extraction games is simply a artifact of the North seas oil and gas and that is running dry.

Their "dash for gas" in the early nineties is now becoming a retreat into a overpopulated stone age.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 11:33 | 996898 tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

classic...when weather fails the spring stagflation confirmation will be blamed on the royal wedding distracting the public from doing anything...

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