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UMich Consumer Confidence Comes Better Than Expected, At 67.8 On Consensus Of 67
Expectations at 62.3 vs consensus of 61.3 (previous 60.6), and Conditions at 76.5 vs 76 (previous 75.5). And with this latest self fulfilling prophecy report out of the propaganda bureau, expect stocks to promptly go green as the ugly GDP number is all but forgotten. This report brings today's official economic release docket to a close. The upcoming ECRI Leading Indicator report (10:30 Eastern) will also come in higher than -10 and with that we will close solidly green as the administration high fives itself over yet another horrible economic print cover up.
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Hey, I'm here in Metro Detroit...hang on, I'll go poke my head in a few dozen cubicles and see how many people I see whistling dixie and swinging a pocket watch.
Beautifully done! First the negative GDP numbers to draw the Shorts in. And then, the one two punch with UMich and Consumer numbers. Shorts to the cleaners..... yet again!
Any green provides cobver to lock and reload shorts at better prices...
I'm long on shorts.
Priceless!!!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Beginning to think UMich surveys a roundtable of economists the likes of Zandi and Blinder. IOW, false read.
Please stop publishing all data and stats, save out time with your numberless lies!
PAPPA DEPRESSION IS IN TOWN FOLKS!
tell him that MAMA DEPRESSION is in my room
Remember people buy the dips, we will make a higher high by election time. This is a no brainer, just like 2006. Get your free money buy the dips and make $$$$$$$
Hello pumper, stop posting from your mobile home, go back to the bar, is happy our time soon!
actually, he's probably right. zero chance QE outright or stealth doesnt happen.
almost certain Fed money is buying mini's right now, which is why all of sell-side has suddenly forgotten about GDP print.
Chances are good whiskey runner is right. Why junk him/her? Having a still as an avatar buys a lot of leeway in my book.
Excellent points.
(I believe he's got point ... being right or not, involves a moral decision, however, and I'll pass on that one.)
He probably is right, and this is a good thing if you are a waiting-to-go-short type....but with patience. Post election could be the best shorting opportunity yet.
Guys some advise: SHORT all you can, leverage to short more, get a second mortgage to short more, because you´ll end up filthy RICH
Bad advise in any environment. Don't underestimate the gov't willingness to spend.
A side note: My small business had a good 2nd quarter and the 3rd Qtr is shaking out okay as well.
Isn't the ECRI released at 9 AM Eastern for subscribers so it is already priced in?
But if Tyler wants to avoid a possible suit (like Flyonthewall.com), he will wait to post it when it is "public".
The economy is roaring back...now that you can walk away from your mortgage and get an iPad.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/walk-away-from-your-underwater-home-and-get-an-ipad-yftt_535280.html
That was a classic, read it this morning!
Priceless II!!!
The joke is getting crueler and you can't help but grin and BARE it!
iPhoney!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
all positive stats are suspect. take a drive. talk to some real people for the truth. its getting worse by the day.
I agree, First of all who is in theses consumer confidence numbers? I never got called, something in the mail, nothing. The average consumer is spent, and you are right things are not getting better at all. Sad freakin state, they need to get out of the way, and let america rebuild ourselves.
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
BLS used to come to my store every month to verify the price of a suit that never sold,
and use that to calculate the CPI...
Oh wow, well let me take my statement back.. Theses numbers are good :-)
ABC consumer confidence fell from -45 to -48 but that was reported out of hours so they didn't bother to fiddle those ones!
Tyler
You're not that far off. Considering every economic release, both private (S&P 500 "earnings") and public (GDP, unemployment etc) fall under the National Security Act and are considered state secrets and thus manipulated, there is nothing left to believe except that nothing is believable.
Did you catch this above? "all positive stats are suspect."
No dissonance there, no sir, just a statement of fact.
nothing is unbelievable now.....even the dow can go upto 36000
Is that true?
Of course even if it is not, I have to believe that it is
these assholes have gone "full farce"
no truth allowed, even if it might corroborate their farce
too risky
I like to say "Full Frontal Fascism" but I like yours as well.
Brilliant epiphany CD! There is nothing left to believe expect that nothing is believable. In age of lies, deceit and deception will the people ever wake up to the underlying fraud that their existence is based on before it's too late? We live in a farce-o-cracy. Where down is up and left is right. Truth has been sacrificed at the altar of greed and lies.
"expect stocks to promptly go green as the ugly GDP number is all but forgotten."
There you go.
Do algos need to eat?
I'd love to see the Bloomberg prints the last 10 minutes - can you say Jamie Dimon's fat ass SPY programs all over it?
This is getting very tiring......
I must say, I almost admire the skill with which they have pulled off the last couple of hours of entertainment. It felt like there was some very heavy selling into the GDP number, no doub they were getting short. Then the GDP print came and the market dropped very hard and very quickly, to tempt fools in to going short, then you have totally unbelievable PMI and consumer confidence, and they close the shorts, and gap the market higher.
My guess, the government has conscripted the banks prop desks and they are tasked with protecting the markets. It would explain so many things.
guess? you dont need the smoking gun to prove guilt. ;)
that's been clear since GFS began batting 1000
The bond market doesn't appear to believe the people of Michigan nor the clowns in Chicago.
People have been conditioned for decades to believe that the stock market is the only economic indicator that really counts. Thus the reason it's pumped. I have clients who tell me this, that my view as well as theirs can't be correct because the stock market is back up.
People are willing to disbelieve their own eyes and actual experience with what's happening all around them because their programming is so strong and the "evidence" presented to confirm that programming is so "real".
people are sheep
I don't say this with the derision most seem to express on this fact
Consider Christianity, for Christ's sake: "the Lord is my shepherd"
people have faith in authority in the same way they have faith in God
when our authorities are good people, all is well
when they are greedy wolves, darkness falls
right now the skies are mostly black with tornado-bearing storms bearing down on us
pure evil controls the "markets" now
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potemkin_village
Awesome analogy ATG. I had not heard about Potemkin villages before.
Infinitely capacity for deceit in the human animal.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
I see the low GDP number headline has already fallen off of Bloombergs page, only positive news allowed here, move along.
With all these endless purchasing and consumer indices released seemingly every other week which are at odds with more "mainstream" measures such as GDP, I hereby create the Lumbergh Consumer Misery Index or LCMI. Currently the LCMI is at 96 compared to 93 last month where 100 is the highest score and thus highest misery. For those interested in more detailed reports please come to my corner office for subscription details.
my contempt for these motherfuckers grows each day
currently the size of our galaxy
destined to be larger than the universe
I hear that. How many domestic terrorist are they going to create?
Rahm's father an Irgun terrorist, one brother designed 0Care and the other brother a Hollywood agent. Coming soon to an iPad near you...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ari_Emanuel
I must say, this is the most unreliable "indicator" of all. I do not care if it was way up or way down..it is a triffling piece of crap IMO. It is a waste of time and donation dollars. How about putting those workers to better use and have them clean the streets of the city rather than call people in Beverly Hills.
Seeing Cramer's face on ZH is like seeing Hilter's face on the ADL's site.
Flash Memo from the Ministry of Truth and Statistics:
RE: Use of verbs and adjectives in Financial Media Reports.
Henceforth all media will only be permitted to use Ministry approved verbs when describing US economic indicators. When describing positive numbers you may only use: Surged, Rocketed, Powered Higher and Erupted Skyward along with the adjectives: Robust, Brawny, and Muscular. When describing negatives you are restricted to: Gave Back Some Gains, Softened Slightly and Had a Silly Little Hiccup along with: Less than Feared.
Conference board consumer confidence index is at 50.4 and declined from last month's value of 54.3. I'd say we should at least aim to reach the base index of 100 from 1985. After all, at that time, they didn't even have the first gen iPod.
http://www.pollingreport.com/consumer.htm#Conference
Besides, can anyone explain the difference between consumer confidence and consumer sentiment?
Great point....interesting divergence between the 2.
Earnings have been postive while economic indicators are weak. This is logical since nearly money (power) is moving quickly to Washington because thats where trillions of new debt are issued (and where new taxes are imposed on the individual). Many companies (mostly large) can be profitable either with growth in govt or consumer spending as long as they increase productivity (cut headcount). So poor consumer confidence numbers really don't make much difference as long as deficit spending continues to increase. Also defense and homeland security spending is very profitable for many companies. There is no deflationary pressure on K street only on main street.
Consumers unlikely to be 70% of the GDP for at least a generation
shit
+1
<p>US <span class="caps">ECRI</span> Weekly Annualised (Jul 30) Y/Y -10.7 vs. Prev. 10.5%</p>
Source: RTRS
Fri, 15:30 30-07-2010
Thanks for posting the info.
Bonds got the memo -- schlocks too busy jacking off over the Chicago PMI.
Oh and I would like to see the UMich numbers broken down by job description and income levels.
Tyler, why don't you start your own indexes, not based on any numbers, just feelings of ZH community. Lets say one would be mood of your readers and the second how they feel the economy performs and where it's going. Everybody votes one time a month and we will see the results. You have readers from all over the world so it would be very good indicator of how we see our future. It should be very simple as rating of guest posts.
And likely more accurate on markets...
When a market soars over miniscule "beats," we know we have trouble in Dodge...
What some of you folks who have not seen more that one or two election cycles don't undersstand is when one party have absolute power, they will use it to the advantage.
Do you really think this is a free market hahahaha we have not had a free market since Regan. Get with the program, buy any and all dips till the election, wise up, make free money.
But what's the Consumer Confidence Confidence at? That's the question...
I typically stay quiet on days like this because I very interested in how the ZH crew interprets the data - and I have nothing of substance to add.
However, I can tell you that a portion of our money is managed by a HF that is widely respected and has been very adept at maneuvering through bull, and especially bear markets.
Their quarterly conference call was very bearish and mirrored much of what ZH sources are saying. From a macro perspective especially. Basically, this last call confirmed much of what I have been reading here lately.
I think very few on this forum trade for a living, to many here are simple not flexiable. You spen to much time and and it clouds your thinking. Now excuse me I need to scale out of this long.
"I think very few on this forum trade for a living,"
True.
However, I've traded various markets for mad money for years and been successful at it.
I'm not trading now.
Just so you know, I wish you all the best but I'm no match for the machines.
I am looking for a potentially major, and thoroughly irrational, meltup today....2% across the board to SPX 1130
GBPUSD upside continues, since daily and weekly charts remain bullish.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/about
300 mile inspection run yesterday. Some of the small towns in rural Iowa have gone from 10% for sale to 25% for sale. Starting to see some of the larger homes ( 250K and up) needing to be looked at for occupancy. (making sure someone is in it or at least cutting the grass). Am thinking of buying a dozen cheapys near colleges for rent income.
come on, zh, you have to work on your adjectives if you want to compete with the us economic version of pravda, aka cnbc. erin, the economic historian, burnett says that consumer confidence was a blow out. get happy, or cramer will pull his add.
One more propaganda statistic, irrelevant, manipulated nonsense.
If you live in the elitist world everything is rosy.
For working stiffs, a different universe.
I hope you guys here on ZH can appreciate how funny it is to have the University of MI providing economic data when it just happens to be located in a state that completely lacks an economy!
NerveAgent VX - Logic will not be tolerated by the current or any future administrations. Michigan is doing just fine and has full employment. Say 100 times and you too will believe.