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UMichigan Confidence Prints 66.6, Misses Expectations Of 70, Lowest Reading Since August 2009
And thus QE2 is right back on the table... Sigh. The prior print was 68.9, and it was hoped it would move higher to 70.0. No such luck as we get the lowest print since August 2009. And probably the scariest indicator: the outlook is at the lowest since March 2009.
- Expectations: 59.1 vs. Exp. 64.2 (Prev. 62.9)
- Conditions: 78.4 vs. Exp. 79.0 (Prev. 78.3)
- 5-year Inflation: 2.8% vs. Prev. 2.8%
- 1-year Inflation: 2.2% vs. Prev. 2.7%
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Dow +300 today.
Blindfold yourself and get ready to buy those calls.
May I please have one of your blindfolds? The kind with your avatar in 3D on the inside?
May I please have one of your blindfolds? The kind with your avatar in 3D on the inside?
QE2 now casting off lines. Buy stocks.
I've been saying it for months... QE 2, in the same sense we think of QE 1, will never materialize. There is not going to be another machete hack... we use the scalpel (close enough for government work, I know...) from here on out. There will be subsequent QEs, but they will more or less be in the form of keeping payments to perpetual dependents, not a knowing attempt at making new ones, e.g. wellfare, unemployment, states, etc. There is not going to be a large, one time, big announcement QE... that would spook the herd. We get a few $50b now instead of $700b+
Shout out to the devil on that number huh?
or the bottom...
What is "Reality catches up with spin," Alex.
Since the Ministry of Truth can spin it any way they wish, why would they "allow" bad numbers such as these to get out.
And please don't tell me about private companies or institutions controlling their own data, thus these numbers can't or wouldn't be manipulated. We all understand by now how widespread Presidential National Security Directives are when it comes to managing the public myth and perception.
So, since we understand they manipulate data, and bad data ain't good for public perceptions, why are they allowing bad data out? Let's play a game of chess and think a dozen moves out.
Probably because the real number was even worse. Did you see the chart? It's not like they can come out and say it's at 75 this month. Everyone with a brain would know it's BS. It's just like unemployment. Why does the news report the U-3 and rarely, if ever, the U-6? The U-6 is the better measure by far.
Exactly, we saw the snp hit 666 bottom? what are the chances of that? what was it FDR who said “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.”
CD, I can barely think as far ahead as my next meal, much less a dozen meals!
I suspect some of the data points are heavily influenced by Big Bro, but I'm not sure they're sharp (or omnipotent) enough to control/influence ALL the econ and sentiment data out there. And, even if they could control it--wouldn't we see a whistleblower? Surely, one of these guys with GOP ties would love to spill the beans?
The simplest explanation would seem to be that the current UMich data is *that* bad, but there's enough positive data being reported elsewhere that gives bulls/traders the hope they need to gun the markets (with a big helping hand from Uncle Sugar). Having said that, I'd still be interested in what you see as the ultimate goal, 12 moves away....
Oh the spin out today on the number is that this was before the two week stock rally and next time it will print much better. So just ignore it.
There is only one political party in America (as well as most of the developed world) with two different superficial factions. All the "fighting" you see between political parties is for entertainment purposes only. Our entertainment, because we love the blame "the other guys". And the powers-that-be entertainment, as we exhaust ourselves fighting among ourselves rather than against those who promote our own self enslavement.
We are caught within the control system. This is the only world you know. Thus it's nearly impossible for us to see anything else when viewed through the control system's lens of distortion.
BTW the simplest explanation is not always correct. I get so tired of the Occam's Razor explanation, which is often used by those who don't wish to deal with the massive complexity involved in human interactions. Take a look at real life. How often is the simplest explanation realy what's going on? Not that often.
Occam's Razor has rapidly become the lazy man's method of explaining away things that they don't wish to explore further. It is one of the ways the control system keeps us blind.
BTW2 you don't have to spin all the data to achieve the effect your looking for. If the majority of people want to believe things are getting better, all you need do is give them some of what they want. They will screen out the rest.
Kinda sounds like an SEP (someone else's problem) field, courtesy of the HitchHiker's Guide to the Galaxy.
If one wants to take a conspiratorial political perspective it would seem the PTB have had enough of Bam etal.
At the same time they fear the Tea Party movement, they misjudged how bad the economy was and how incompetent the politicians have been to turn the free money provided into "prosperity". They hope to run Bam out of town with an election debacle. If he survives, Bam will be even more beholden to the PTB and will do whatever they want.
They will try and sneak something thru Congress before January, kind of a scorched earth approach. Looking forward, political stalemate is not all bad given the PTB have already received their handouts.
I expect the market to stay in the narrow trading range, the economic news to be bad until after the election and no surprises geo-politically. But who really knows .... :-)
FWIIW, sschu
With the explosion of the wealth gap and blowing of the credit bubble, the PTB win regardless of the outcome... the war is largely over. At this juncture, their preference is simply to continue the looting as long as possible. Think of it like plucking the last meat off a carcass... or licking the plate after dinner. But make no mistake, the true goal of politicians (broad term) is to create a situation in which they win either way... and the PTB have the utmost of Machiavellian aptitude.
... the PTB win regardless of the outcome the war is largely over ...
You may be correct, but I still have a glimir of hope that Americans will do the right thing. Clearly the Tea Party movement has some traction, and the basis of it crosses political lines and is based upon fiscal issues. Henninger had an article in the WSJ about this yesterday - It is the Spending, Stupid.
Regardless of your politican perspective, the issue remains, can sanity prevail? Can we get our financial house in order despite the enormous pain this will entail? I am frankly not optimistic, but at the same time there remains a chance.
sschu
Perhaps and in the event of some calamitous failure in the financial market, I cannot see everyone burrowing in to the mud until the drought passes.
These are people who eat, build, break, whatever, and they will not stop because there is no viable currency or global financial structure. You wanna see innovate? Wait for TSTHTF. The world is not going to stop because the PTB want it to or because no one can agree on a currency.
I don't know but there seems to be a weird kind of arrogance here that if any of these dire prognostications come true, then it's "Game over". Manhattan Mayhem could pretty much end but the man on the tractor cutting hay in the pasture next to me really doesn't much care and he has a lot of company.
Maybe a little perspective...
... Maybe a little perspective ...
Yours is an excellent point. Obviously whichever way this thing manifests, life goes on. It is clear we will all have challenges and probably be poorer.
It is important that we all are prepared when the dust settles to insure our grandchildren do not face these same issues. Given the nature of man, it seems unlikely similar circumstances will not be faced by others.
sschu
When have humans ever been diligent enough to avoid collapse? We're hell on wheels at blowing bubbles... we just suck total shit through a straw at any semblance of maintenance. We will not avert anything. Maybe we lop some heads off in unwitting disgust of ourselves after the fact... but our descendants will be having this same conversation.
And grunion is right in many respects... the problem is that there will be a great clash as the urbans attempt to find the resources of the rural... what unfolds will not be able to be denied by anyone... regardless of how far removed their caves may be.
Urbans are gonna have a tough time carting off fields of ripening corn, hay, etc.
Despair, with a side order of starvation -- order up!
Depends... urbans will have the numbers and the machiavellian aptitude... as well as the general sense of entitlement. I'm thinking they'll only cart off the corn when the farmers' ammo runs low...
this is the last week for corn in front range colorado.
twitter of the day:
I'm confident that ObaMao will come up with more socialism to "fix" the problem, and I'm confident Banana Ben will continue to push on his monetary string with no positive effect
Your inane and vapid post is most puzzling, especially considering that you - only 2 days ago - pompously accused others of not adding anything meaningful to the discussion.
ObaMao? Is that the snarky word du jour among the goldman coffee runners?
Your attempt to connect Obama to Zedong is as idiotic as Glenn Beck crying on television, or Sarah Palin talking about death panels.
If you want to connect the dots between American presidents and infamous communist/fascist/Marxist leaders, you should start with George fucking Bush. There is no president in American history that implemented more fascist policies and legislation than that moronic charlatan from Texas. Period.
George Bush - with the help of his arrogant Republican cronies - transformed America into a war-mongering plutocracy that siphoned money from the pockets of the masses and deposited it straight into the bank accounts of his corporate friends. It was Robin Hood in reverse.
Are the Democrats equally at fault? Absolutely. But you must admit that the hypocrisy runs deeper and richer in the Republican party, because they market themselves as the exact opposite. Republicans lead everyone to believe that they're for austerity, small government, and laissez faire. Bullshit! Fucking bullshit! The examples to the contrary are endless. Bush was the quintessential Texan Republican, and after eight years of his leadership, the United States became more fascist than any time in history.
Obama was given the unfathomable task of putting all the pieces of Humpty Dumpty back together again. Has he been successful? No. He hasn't. But listening to a Republican criticize Obama's inability to reverse America's problems, is a bit like listening to an arsonist mock the firefighters who can't control the flames.
Spare me the ObaMao bullshit. If I want to hear that crap, I'd watch Glenn Beck.
When GW was in office, you should have complained about his policies that you didnt like. It was your right. Just as it is Chemba's right to complain about Obama.
Free speech- Protect it or lose it.
This is not a First Amendment issue. It's an idiot issue.
The fact that idiotic Republicans can freely spew their hypocritical garbage is a testament to the strength of the First Amendment.
RedNeck - Obamao Obamao Obamao. If you're clueless why Obama is called Obamao - then you're living up to your surname. Get a clue.
"But you must admit that the hypocrisy runs deeper and richer in the Republican party." Whatever. Liberalism is just socialism disguised as tolerance and intelligence when in reality it's just another power and money grab for those that don't have it.
in other words - get Obamao to stop blaming W for his woes and have him and his 'Cratty Congress fix something with the $3+ trillion he spent instead of just handing out pork projects to his union cronies. If this was W in office you'd still be calling him obscene names..
And conversely: Conservatism is just fascism disguised with religion and individualism when in reality it's just another power and money maintenance scheme for those that already have it.
I think that it is clear that each side represents different interests, and that a person should vote for the candidate that looks out for his own interests. Unfortunately there is a large chunk of the population that votes against its own interests because they are deceived.
It would certainly seem that people who make arguments such as "if you are clueless, then you need to gat a clue" have been tricked into defending policies that they either don't understand well enough to defend or can't defend because the conclusions are based upon flawed logic.
Blame it on George, ad infinitum....Jeez, amazing he was able to pull it off in a vacuum at that.
If you think it's unfair to blame Bush for implosion of this country, then it is equally unfair to blame Obama for the lack of recovery.
This forum is overwhelmingly infested with end-of-the-world, right-wing idiots who are willingly blind to anything that calls their party and/or their political convictions into question. I find it endlessly entertaining to point out their idiocy.
For those of you that can see through the ObaMao or death panel bullshit, I congratulate you for being able to think independently and for not falling for the Glenn Beck agenda of lunacy and fear.
Don't mean a thing. Let's just keep on dancing...
http://www.google.com/url?url=http://ilike.myspacecdn.com/play%23No%2BDoubt:Hella%2BGood:14195:s131267.11743.7184207.1.1.32%252Cstd_0d7eae32cb1ce6cc8d2fdaaeadc4abf4&rct=j&sa=X&ei=gnSTTMnvH8Lflgekh5mnCg&ved=0CBgQ0wQoADAA&q=no+doubt+hella+good&usg=AFQjCNGskRALDq-9JVTxkMpiJ3ySxVblAg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdPKHbKbyjk&feature=related
Anybody wanna ...
Didn't UofM get the memo. They were supposed to do better than that.
Dog and pony show surveys like this don't impact the likelihood of QE.
You think that the consumer/voter sentiment doesn't impact the likely hood of QE2?
Seriously?
Did you hear Jabba The Summers say the most important thing that they we need is CONFIDENCE?
Now a worthy discussion point, is what QE2 can and/or will do for confidence (since the corollary of QE2 will be a much lower USD thus destroying any buying power that the middle class has left, but i digress)?
I also heard Yoda (Greenspan) just other day saying "rising equity prices are a key ingredient in restoring CONFIDENCE".
Didn't he also just advise people that gold is the way to go?
The reason why you are seeing mixed signals as to QE 2 is because you HAVE TO see mixed signals for the charade to continue. It is a perpetual anvil held above our heads. Uncertainty is what keeps the markets and some semblance of our former state of living chugging along... uncertainty is what keeps us range bound.
In this instance, credit contraction and deleveraging is a certainty and there is absolutely no man nor printing press that can stop it. All the talk of QE 2 is nothing short of a desperate attempt to not only deny gravity, but to create uncertainty. Overt QE 2 in any remote likenes to QE 1 is not going to happen... period, end of story. We will continue to have the government paying for items... whether it be unemployment benefits, wellfare, etc... but I would consider most all of these items to be more routine in nature rather than an attempt at stimulus. In this vein, the amounts will be smaller... although there may be more of them.
Right! MUCH harder to hit a moving target.
Agreed! What benefits will the consumer see from QE2? Main Street gets (less than) nothing from QE2!
Every day, in every way, we're getting better and better.
Why, why, why ? WTF is wrong with these consumers ? WIth Govt giving them 0% rates, 99 week unemployment benefits, manipulating perpetually high stock prices - why can't these people be happy ?
Why do they refuse to get on with the program ? Why ?
The PPT will make all well as CNBC stated earlier this year:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WlRKx469X4
Truly amusing those that base their investment thesis on bureaucrats.
so what. the machine will give companies whatever money they need to post profits that support stock market levels. fraud rules. buy stocks now.
Green shoots.
You have been saying this since the old zero hedge days ... ;-P
Amazing reversal on this news, given that Dow futures were up nearly triple digits overnight. Dow went negative a few minutes ago.
We are just not being obedient to our authorities by spending. Americans are not as stupid as they think we are! Even if the government and politicians don't get it, WE DO!
For Michigan, I'd say 66pc would be an overstatement
Whee! 50 point DJI drop - yet the market is only down -10. Whutta joke of a market. Now if someone can just make that NASDAQ Composite thingy to go down for once instead of having some manipulator pump it up like a bad Reebok shoe.
It (Nasdaq) already had its down day for the month last Tuesday.
One day too many. It's a recovery dammit, buy tech stocks!
Just wondering. I noticed an article here on ZH yesterday about people dropping out of extended unemployment benefits. Could this have an impact on 1) consumer sentiment souring, and 2) future drop in spending for everything, including even food?
That aspect of the UE numbers yesterday was not even mentioned in the WSJ this AM.
"It's already priced in"
"Not as bad as expected"
"Better than a year ago"
"It's stabilizing"
Take your pick.
the tighter the rubber band being held back, the worse the snap back. Equities could fall 20% in one day, Gold up over $100 per day, 10 year interest rate moves of over 1% in a day.
Anyone suggest why SDS and SPY are trading so far apart today ? Something to do with expiration ? The have sometimes been trading in the same direction !
I assume the underlying portfolio of SDS will track as expected. Maybe just fluctuations in premium/discount to NAV? Arb opportunity?
Thnx. SDS usually tracks SPY really well. Today it's tracking S&P500 but SPY isn't tracking S&P. I'm not clever enough to find an Arb op. I'm sure you're right about it tracking it's portfollio. regards
quadruple-expiration today.
I assume it's just a coincidence that the Bloomberg command for the UofM index is <CONSSENT>, as in participants should "consent" to believing that everything is rosy or they should expect the wrath of big brother.
I guess we shouldn't be surprised that this news coupled with the Irish & Portugal debacle is not moving the market lower.
What a fucking joke this market has become.
This "index" is still worthless regardless.
WHAT DOES MY AVATAR SAY?!!?
I'M PROVEN RIGHT, AGAIN!
Have a hillybilly drive by and fire a bullet hole into that sign (between the 2nd and 3rd 6), and it would be perfect!
Skeeter is loading up the pellet gun right now!
By chance I've seen -6.66 and 6.66 print on the Dow at least a half dozen times this morning.
Scary....
Wrong, that's the close on SPX (+).
Can someone please tell me where and why there would be any confidence in any area. Everything sucks and as a banker in a major souuthwestern city I can tell you that there is not a building within a 5 mile radius of my office that is not for sale or a see through and traffic is down 50%. Restaurants are empty and so are the grocery stores so help me understand why we should have any confidence.
Simple, cause the government told you too!
DC is doing great. As a friend from Montana pointed out, they have all of our money.
Why be an optomist? A trend is not destiny, and the demoncrats are about to be knocked ass over elbows in the upcoming.
Having said that, I couldn't agree more. America is losing a generation as the young are increasingly isolated and impoverished. Only the government drones and the Q tip heads have money. Real estate is dead for a generation. We are in for a long, nasty slog digging out of this, and that can't begin until the policy wonks get out of the way.
Q/E2 is meaningless, an event with a lifespan measured in hours, not days.
Exactly, Timmy/Ben have learned nothing.
Fire up the "throttable" circuit breakers
Everything is gonna be fine !
You go back to Oprah
"mm" "kay"
Overnight the Dow Mini Futures rose to around 10630, so the bottom today will be around 10530 give or take. Once we get there we will churn for 5 hours then head back up late in the day.
Every 24 hours it moves about 100 points give or take.
Churn in a 30-40 point range then move back up late today. Same thing over and over. If you never need sleep you can make alot of money.
LOL...SPX climbing.
Un-Be-Fucking-Lievable.
they were all set to fucking jack this thing today, like they did Aug 2 and this monday (to name a couple times). the bad news today only merits a slight uptick however. maybe we'll get a token down day even.
You mean pumping the DOW futures by triple digits during the wee hours on abysmal economic data was suspicious of foul play?
Certainly looks like they were set to ram the salami straight up the korn hole again today, 10 minutes after open DOW was ramping up to the 100 pump level quick. Dropped back off quick, certainly seems it was a bull shearing move, I wonder if Mr Roboto will give the bulls back their scratch or rape em a bit more?
You can't go long here, you bleed if you're short. It's a fucking mess of a market.
And here we move right back up. Guess an hour was long enough to forget the tripe 6 miss.
News Flash :
"Consumers in Pact With Satan, Confidence to Bottom Out at 66.6 "
^^^
\m/
Already priced in DXY on the way back up - sold AUD @ 94.39
Expiration is today.
Surely, this is a raging positive for Commercial Real Estate.
Just let me check....YEP. Another moon shot for SPG and IYR.
Bottom line...it's all good!
The whole thing sounds evil....
Snippets from Nate today:
“I guess the truth is that I don’t take our markets seriously at all, they are nothing but an illusion designed to suck your productive capacity into the hands of the few who play with their HFT machines, have access to dark pools, and ‘make’ markets.” …
“Not to worry, the people on TV, and the people who have lots of things to sell you, say there is almost no chance of a ‘double dip.’ People like Warren Buffet, who owns banks like Wells Fargo that was proven guilty of laundering drug money, who owns Gillette which produces razor blades that you MUST HAVE because they have 5 blades, as if two weren’t enough. They won’t even keep making only two, because they’re almost finally affordable at a buck each – no, no, we must spend $4 each for 5 blades or otherwise their bottom line will suffer… Thanks Warren. Sure I’ll buy some of your stock from you, never been a better time. What’s that, you want me to take our a loan and work the rest of my life to pay you back? Sure Warren, no problem, I’d gladly trade my soul that’s making my one trip on this planet to you for a shiny new overpriced oil sucking car made by a company I bailed out with the tax portion of my productive efforts. It’s a dream come true! Sure am glad to see Elizabeth come to my rescue, I’m feeling richer already, think I better go buy a house because there’s never been a better time to buy.” …
The CPI came in on expectations, which is up .3% month to month overall, but FLAT when removing the food and energy that the hot money POMO rotation created. Year over year consumer inflation is supposedly up only 1.2% - sure, and Santa will come down your ‘shelter’s’ depreciating chimney in only a few months.”…
“Hey, it’s all good. Just ask the ‘consumers’ who will tell us how warm, well shaven, and fuzzy they are this morning at 9:55 Eastern when their sentiment is released…”
http://economicedge.blogspot.com
i like nate. the razor blade thing is just an metaphor for all products we suppose to "need". XL
people in general in cramerica are so damn conditioned to accept this BS. i think the razor blade is a conspiracy with J&J so you have to buy more band-aids. well i only shower, shave and shampoo every fourth day (disclaimer:unless really get hot and sweaty). it nixes all planned mind games P&G plays with us. i hate shaving really. threading is the new new thing, it is actually ancient method of hair removal. for men too, maybe.
Consumer Metrics Institute Growth Index is at March 2009 levels already and pointing straight down:
http://www.consumerindexes.com/
Let's see....if we used stimulus instead of QE2, we could do like LA and spend $2M for every job created, saved or bull-sheeted. This would allow us to rehire 1M unemployed Americans for $2,000,000,000,000. Hopefully QE2 will be more efficient....
Is it just me or we all are bombarded by discount offers from the retailers recently? Come on, I get a dozen of those in my e-mail box every day (and I don't shop much).
upgrade your spam thingy. viagra is all i get.
my credit card statement comes with paper ad promotions. what a scam life in america is. just pathetic, how they continue to dumb down the sheep.
I have a credit card with Citi which now has a zero balance and I never use it anymore. All my accounts at Citi now have zero balances, but I will not close them because it costs them money to maintain them if they are open.
They still keep sending me envelopes stuffed with blank checks (get a cash advance, now!) at least every other week.
Motherf**kers.
i didn't junk you.
I found lots of interesting information here. I love zerohedge.
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