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UMichigan Consumer Confidence Misses, Comes At 67.7 On Expectations Of 68.2, New 2010 Low, As Expectations Plummet
And with that the economic data barrage for the day is over and we can enjoy the calm before next week's storm: UMich consumer confidence comes at 67.7, missing expectations of a slight pick up to the prior 67.9. But what is most important is that the Hopium is finally wearing off: the Expectations component came at 61.9a large miss to both consensus and previous. Traditionally the "hope" component of confidence is what had consumers going. Not so much anymore. And indeed, the Conditions component rose from both expectations of 73.5 and the previous print of 73 to 76.6. Consumers no longer have much confidence in the future. Additionally, both 1 and 5 Year inflation expectations rose, to 2.7% and 2.8% respectively. Is the Fed succeeding in raising inflation expectations.
- Expectations: 61.9 vs. Exp. 65.0 (Prev. 64.6)
- Conditions: 76.6 vs. Exp. 73.5 (Prev. 73.0)
- 5-year Inflation: 2.8% vs. Prev. 2.7%
- 1-year Inflation: 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.6%
- 12-month economic outlook index final Oct. 67 vs. preliminary 70
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I must say, as a Euro trader...i cant remember an easier time for trading.
I love sitting here naked blogging with you guys, but since all the major reports are out, I'm going to the Mall and watch people walk around and not buy anything all day long.
This I gotta see. Pictures please.
On second thought, no pictures please.
CD, I think you might be interested in chatroulette.com. LOL.
Wow, I keep trying to forget the time I checked it out to see what all the fuss was about....yeah more cocks than a chicken farm.
Thank you for the warning. I'll pass and save the wear and tear on the eyeballs. :>)
You have to experience it just once though.
Is that like lemonparty or tubgirl? Someone said that was orange juice, but I dunno...
Good for you Frank. I can't blog naked yet, as I really don't know ya'll that well. But I often put in my stop-losses, wearing just a thong.
How did your visit to your commercial banker go when you shouted "Show me the note"?
I must have the only bank in the US that keeps their commercial notes in house. All of them. Then he said, actually, that's not accurate. We sell only those loans that are 60+ delinquent in packages. No MERS either. I shoulda brought my long cheat sheet of brilliant questions from Reggie. I did get in a "boy, I wouldn't want your fuckin' job," before leaving.
Next week should prove far more interesting when I drop in on my other bank to track down the residential notes. They strike me much more as a chop shop operation.
HEY,wait on a minute there fella,consumerism is not DEAD yet.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRnY-Yy8F9s
.....told ya so.
Thank God they were able to dissapoint on ONE of today's economic numbers.
OK Ben, back up the QE 2.0 truck. The coast is clear.
lol
I must be a leading indicator, my expectations were down a long time ago. Good to know I was right.
Chart: ES and ZB
One tired market.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/es-zb_29.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
Inflation expections are higher because of the food and fuel prices hyperinflating right now, the cost of things that are needed for basics are soaring so people don't see any good prospects going ahead as they will not be able to afford the massive price rises. they won't spend on luxuries and will batten down the hatches just to make ends meet
...and they were expecting an Xmas spending frenzy today, Ha!
April Fool
No wonder the market rallied - things are looking worse. makes sense to me.
Fak the FED, if they want to toy with inflation and gun it up with more Money Printing (QE)(BS), then I will spend even less and buckle down even harder and enjoy no liesurely items. I will watch them try and ram it down my throat BS games of hide the debt tricks. I will enjoy it because I can last longer than their worthless organization once the truth hits mainstream. I sure keep trying to spread the word to those who want to take the blue pill.
Just how I see it too, I dont care how much theyre prodding people to 'go spend'. I know exactly whats going on and how fake it all is so while they want to direct me to go buy their stupid useless Chinese gadgetry, I'll stick to stockpiling everything from ammo to non-designer clothes lines like Carhartt, and less than precious metals such as lead, copper and brass. Fek 'em.
I'm just stunned that they let this go to market... this administration has been about one thing - spin doctoring over real results. Why the change? When business starts to pick up, then I will believe we are on our way to a recovery. Until then, this economy has only two components: the Fed and the PDs.
From the dudes at ECRI:
After completing an exhaustive review of key drivers of the business cycle, ranging from credit to inventories and measures of labor market conditions, we can forecast with confidence that the economy will avoid a double dip.
But the bad news is that a revival in economic growth is not yet in sight. The slowing of economic growth that began in mid-2010 will continue through early 2011. Thus, private sector job growth, which is already easing, will slow further, keeping the double-dip debate alive.
Let me see if I understand this, there will be no double dip but growth will be soooo slow that there will be DEBATE about a double dip throughout 2011. That's some crazy crystal ball that can tell them that with such clarity.
It must be a cloudy crystal ball. The unintended consequences of monetary policy are weighing on the economy, especially retirees (the number of irate CD holders not renewing and angry about zero COLA is astounding)... and maybe it won't be a 'double dip' by their definition, but it sure feels like it. This is a weird economy - some feel depression (unemployed, foreclosed home-owers), some deep recession, others feel bullish (mostly bankers and government officials apparently). Perhaps that is enough to average out to no double dip.
Of course, given we have a limited timespan in which to dig ourselves out of the grave, what does this prolonged period of little/no growth prospects say about our ability to ultimately succeed in staving off default?
The prospect of some food availability possibly in 12 months means nothing to a starving man today.
We've already experienced the price inflation the Fed is claiming it wants to create. Higher retail prices do not make consumers spend more, especially when their only funding mechanism is a credit card.
The epic rout on November 2nd will be Bernanke's cover to shift gears. The Newspeak will be: "QE? We never guaranteed any specific QE level -- our mandates are price stability and a strong dollar". Icing on the cake will be a 50 bp hike in rates.
All this talk about double dips reminds of this classic
http://www.cafepress.com/johnhartstudios.339571367
Could not find the actual strip reprint- do the larger image and zoom on in.
Dip in road indeed - Ben, Timmy is that you?
Pete
Remove the FED money printing frenzy invisible hand and then tell me what your indicators show.
Well, I've long said that the key to happiness is lowered expectations.
Happy days are here again...
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