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UMichigan Misses, 5 Year Inflation Expectations Rise To Second Highest In 2011
Bizarro time is here, now that we have another market surge based on another economic indicator miss, in this case the uber-irrelevant UMichigan confidence, which came at 71.8 on expectations of 74, and a drop from May's 74.3. Granted the only reason stocks are rising is not on any fundamentals, but purely due to the clobbering the USD just took, which sent the EUR surging, and pushed the Dow into triple digit territory. To whoever continues to trade this centrally planned farce, our condolences. The only relevant data in the index was that the 5 year inflation expectations jumped from 2.9% to 3.0%, the second highest in 2011, and only below March's 3.2%. Time for the Fed to panic once again, now that Operation Twist 2 is just matter of months if not weeks.
UMichigan:
5 Year Inflation Expectations:
Elsewhere, the Leading Economic Indicators number came at some value, but since this metric is even more irrelevant than Michigan's rolodex of 10 Wall Street CEOs, we refuse to even mention it.
Here is Goldman's take on the surging LEI. No seriously, read the explanation.
MAIN POINTS:
1. The index of consumer sentiment fell by 2.5 points in the June preliminary report to 71.8. A decline in the index of consumer expectations subtracted 1.6 points, and a deterioration in households' assessments of current activity subtracted the remaining 0.9 points. The decline in both series was relatively moderate, but given that the level of the confidence indexes is already low, it was a discouraging report overall. The survey's measure of 5-10 year inflation expectations was 3.0%, close to its average over the last ten years.
2. The index of leading economic indicators increased by 0.8% in May, more than expected (Consensus: 0.3%). The surprise reflects better building permits reported yesterday-which are usually not incorporated into consensus forecasts-and forecasted increases for the three missing components (durable goods orders for capital equipment and consumer durables, and the real money stock).
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LEI explodes higher on good consumer confidence
Goodnight Moodys (MCO) it was nice knowing you.
www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com
Don't harsh my rally, dude.
Check out IYR afterwards...f'ing incredible. Can anyone post a chart of that garbage?
Jesus Christ...talk about literally going for broke.
So how much have you lost on SRS thus far?
Nothing. I have some small IYR puts though. Are you interested in taking ownership of them? The price is right.
I now see the reason for the surge in the prices of gold/silver over the last half hour.
Go, gold/silver, go.
Gotta love PMs!
Actually, I really wish they'd go in the tank for a few days so I could buy some more. :)
Sackman is really raping RTY, fookin hilarious.
From the price action in DIA it looks like the PPT is hard at work today. Market keeps trying to go lower but it floats up.
It certainly is a farce. I watch a little MSNBC in the mornings and they have Becky Quick doing the stock market updates on Todd's show. Today she said the market will "open at 90 points over fair value". I challenge anyone to calculate what fair value is in this market, unless your definition of fair value is propogating lies and propaganda on behalf of the financial elite.
Fair value is what actual investors will pay for something, not what manipulators with limitless cash say it is.
Fair value for Dummies
http://money.cnn.com/2000/04/17/investing/fairvalue/
I guess thats how it is suppose to work huh?
While I agree with you in principle, I think she is referring to this:
http://money.cnn.com/2000/04/17/investing/fairvalue/
She likes to say it all the time, so I'm guessing this is one of the things Warren explained to her during one of their post-coital smokes.
Lol A+ post. I like where you're head is at.
You DOUBT what CNBC & MSNBC assert is the "fair value" of the stock market?
Give little Becky Quick a break. Up until a few months ago she couldn't even add a negative and a positive number together to come up with the 'fair value' of the market. The thought of adding those red and green numbers struck terror into her heart for years until she was finally sent away to space cadet camp for a week for retraining and indoctrination.
Now she adds correctly 2 out of every 3 times she tries, a marked improvement for "The Quick".
Fair value logic exposed here...
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/1998-12-12/
IMF slashes U.S. growth estimates for 2011 and 2012:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-lowers-US-economic-cnnm-1497463205.htm...
Goldman Sachs also announces plans to slash $1 Billion in costs over next 12 months.
Goldman Sachs also announces plans to slash $1 Billion in costs over next 12 months.
So, who's not getting a bonus there this year?
The poor saps about to hit the street after getting their pink slips.
Stawk bots immediately implement *cntrl alt del* function....resume crocodile algorith.
Blooberg is going apeshit over some breaking news of a Greek bailout. Apparently all is perfect in the universe.
The financial terrorists' test run in Greece is going swimmingly
Out of all my longs..baby rally is shorter then Weiner's weiner Fertilizer complex shitting a brick
The market doesn't go down for 2 days in a row. Yet there have been 6 weeks straight of losses. What a fucked up market. Action in DIA and SPY makes me want to puke. But I've seen it day after day, again and again and again so not sure why I'm still shocked. I literally laugh when I see the Dow fall 10 points only to rocket up 15 points in 2 minutes.
What's the sell-side equivalent acronym of BTFD?
<S>ell that s**t when <T>he <F>**cker <R>allies ?
FAIL
An uncalled for rally in the coming months, in anticipation of OT2, could end up having the unintended effect of OT2 deferment. The market shot in the leg by its own weapon? Sounds about right. Plaxico would approve.
Greek debt restructuring does not create hundrerds of thousands of good paying private sector jobs. In fact, the austerity program will slash tens of thousands of jobs.
Greek debt restructuring = kicks the can down the road
Astute fund managers, investors etc. know to move with what they predict the rest of the crowd will move too. They can be the best forecasters of socio-economic events, but essentially they have to predict what most of the other traders will do.
In these crazy days, negative economic indicators increases the likelihood of QE3. If QE3 happens then, the equities and commodities indices will surge. Thats the mantra at present.
That gimp Keynes got one thing right, using this allegory to explain this behaviour
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest
There's only one problem... Bennie is sitting in his big leather chair with a smart-a** grin right now. He isn't going to lift a finger until he can sit confidently before Congress and say "see I told you so" in his condescending roundabout way.
You mean sweaty brow quivering lip stuttering Bernank? No his end will not be him getting carried on the shoulders of a cheering clowngress at all. His end will far more likely involve pitchforks, torches, and looped ropes.
Referring to the inevitability of QE3, of course. Not the future beyond that.
How is Ben going to explain 30 months of failure ?
Failure??? If you're the typical Congress-critter with big equity investments, it's been a huge success. Few of them see the affects of inflation first hand. Hell, some don't even buy their own food. They go from one lobbyist paid dinner to the next...
Wow.
I replied to an inoccuous comment about expectations management. That wasnt controversial.
How did his original comment disappear?
Im confident.
That Greece will receive Pandas?
How bad is it?
Reuters headline:
"Wall Street Rises as Greece Debt Plan Hinted"
So you're getting older, the years passing, and your Son still hasn't had any kids:
"Hope for Grandchild Rises as Son Gets Whiff of Perfume from Woman at Bus Stop"
What a crock of shit.
NONE of the real issues have been dealt with, NO ONE on Wall Street or Washington of any consequence is in prison, and a "hint" of a debt "plan" pumps stocks.
INSANITY
Thats right, nothing at all in the totaly broken and corrupt system has changed since 'catastrophe 2008', in fact its only gotten far more corrupt to the point they dont even bother trying to hide it anymore, and all we've got to show for $27 trillion in new debt is a few thousand lousy artificial DOW points.
Everyone keeps talking about "talks" and "agreements" between France and Germany or someone and the IMF. But there is no plan, it's all just hot air and bullshit.
"We need to avoid a default."
"Greek credit event will harm confidence."
"We want private bondholders to share costs of the bailout."
All shit like that and it ramps the EUR and the ES. But there is no plan! Bankrupt is bankrupt, and Greece is fucking broke. Pumping more money into the country is like a gambler pumping money into a slot machine. Eventually you lose it all, and barring a miracle, you really have no hope of ever coming out ahead.
So, again, what exactly is the "plan" for Greece? Anyone??? There isn't one. Fuck the EU, fuck the Euro, fuck the USD, fuck them all. Just default and give them the finger and tell them to fuck off. Hopefully that would set off the cascade of defaults around the world. Maybe then people will realize how stupid fiat money is.
+1 on your analogy.
I will use that alot!
G-Pap vote of confidence was held among Goldmanites and Rothschilds last night.
They voted that he's going to stay. No matter how much he'd like to resign actually, they showed him pictures of his family through a scope.
Who did you think was in charge and how did you think they were going to get what they want?
It's always been this way. Don't get beat up over it. Go outside and enjoy the day. Weekend is around the corner.
My data feed is showing the SPY as closing at 126.67 yesterday when all of my charts show 127.30. As a result even though we were below yesterday's close for a short while I was still showing a healthy and happy gain of around .5%. Any comments?
If you are the broker or the IRS .5% is rounded up in your favor.
If you are the trader or the taxpayer .5% is rounded down to your loss.
Nifty update ::
http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/
"...and forecasted increases for the three missing components."
Uhm...I knew they were making stuff up, but now we're all just OK with that?
At least PRETEND IT MATTERS.
Theyve made sure people are still somewhat comfortable...as long as folks still got some food, govt check coming in, and TV and IPhone still work, all is well.
Alea Iacta Est = There is a dice drop
Technically, it should be Jacta Alea Est, per Suetonius.
Or arguably, Jacta Alea ESTO, to convey the context.
I prefer it the way I have it written, which you translate slightly differently than I would.
The dice are dropped!
Oh that we had one such as Caesar to pick them up again.
The Fed ain't going to panic. Anything that rises in price will be excluded from the BLS's calculus on the basis you can now buy an iPad 7 for the same price of an iPad 1.
Time for another silver short squeeze.
so based on the highlighted paragraph 2 the rationale for the increase (i.e. rally) is that something usually not taken into consideration 'was better' and that the forecasts for some components missing was higher?
geez, that's pretty lame.
So the LEI equates to a forecast for a forecast- like a third derivative on a second derivative- gamma to kappa. Is there a CDO app for that? Greece just raised some space cash!
After so called "6 weeks sell off", I took a look at some big tech names: AAPL, AMZN, NFLX. God, they are still near all time high! It looks like Bernanke will create a giant bubble if he dares.
Is this the inflation everybody's afraid of? http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112955/wall-street-ge...
Cartel-induced inflation?! Sure! That should work just fine for another ...couple of months, maybe ?!
ps: oh btw, is B. Quick validating the captcha? Because it works just wonderful 2 out of 3 times.
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