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UMichigcan Consumer Sentiment At 69.6, Just Better Than Expectations
The August UMich Confidence index came at 69.6, just higher than expectations of 69.0 and better than the previous print of 67.8. The Expectations index came at 64.1, compared to expectations of 63.7, Conditions came in at 78.3 (Exp. of 76.5), even as 1 Year inflation expectations came a little higher than consensus at 2.8, at the expense of 5 year, which in turn was lower 2.7. Stocks spike on the "better than expected" news, as cause and effect in the market continue to matter less and less.
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+10 handle pop dialed in on this great news!!
WOOOOO-HOOOO!!!!!
iPads, bitchez.
<sarcasm off>
Yep - figured it had to be something like that as soon as I saw the pop on FinViz.
They are gunning for another "Nipple Bottom"
But ask yourself this ... does the fact that the 30yr cash bond now trades at 37.5bp discount to the swap, which is near the lows of September 2008 and March 2009, tell us something else about confidence ???
Wow that was good for a quick 2pts on the SPX.
Thank god for that. I need a couple new job contracts...that oughta make things better.
Can we please stop posting U of M Consumer Sentiment? It clutters the homepage. Thanks.
Dear America,
Recession officially OVER.
NOW GO BUY stocks, houses, and iPads
Love,
Ben Bernanke
Has anyone or does anyone know anyone, or know of anyone, who's ever been contacted by this survey for their opinion? What are the actual questions asked? Do they ask the same people all the time? What's the methodology?
Question 1: Are you optimistic about the current economic outlook?
If you say "no", they respond with "Everyone is entitled to your opinion, but yours does not count in our survey. Sorry to have bothered you".
They can't ask those that lost their jobs or their homes because they haven't got a phone line any longer... so the more people who lose their homes and jobs, the higher the index will go!
I am fairly certain Rahm provides them with the appropiate 5000 households.
The CCI is based on the data from a monthly survey of 5000 US households. The data is calculated for the United States as a whole and for each of the country’s nine census regions. The survey consists of five questions on the following topics: i) current business conditions, ii) business conditions for the next six months, iii) current employment conditions, iv) employment conditions for the next six months, v) total family income for the next six months. After all surveys are collected, each question’s positive responses are divided by the sum of its positive and negative responses. The resulting relative value is then used as an “index value” and compared against each respective monthly value for 1985. That year was chosen as a benchmark year because it was neither a peak nor trough in the business cycle. The index values for all five questions are averaged together to produce the CCI. The average of index values for questions i and iii form the Present Situation Index, and the average of index values for questions ii, iv and v form the Expectations Index.[1]
They hold your unemployment check tightly in hand while asking the question. Answer correctly, you get the check. Answer incorrectly, you go to the back of the line.
At least they let you go to the back of the line. I would have thought they'd have banished you to forest fire fighting duty in Siberia. :>)
I have never known anyone called on this.
Moreover, before Reuters, this was a laughable (was?) piece of "data" that came out sometime between 9:45 and 10:00 and never caused more than a burp in the market.
Through self promotion or marketing, it has gained in talking head popularity, but it is, and always be a worthless piece of shit.
Don't hold back Dixie Normous. Tell us how you really feel about this survey. :>)
Deep down, I'm probably just mad that they don't call me to participate so I can share stories with them like how a realtor in my neighborhood sent out a flier saying she sold a house down the street in just 2 days. Within a week, 5 houses in the same area hit the market. That's good. Right?
Exactly.
I believe that many of these surveys and economic data will be completely phony as there is nothing the government and its partners will not do to deceive the world that the United States has stopped its slide into the abyss. Consider the schizo stock markets and resist the urge to use it as evidence for anything, as only idiots like Jim Cramer will buy into a 200 point PPT backed surge.
This is because of all the long term unemployed that had lost benefits have been reinstated at the trough.
Confidence soars!
Well I give their unitless 'index' a score of 3.14159 out of 7 growly bears.
I conducted a phone survey of myself and determined that I recieved 11 strongbadic entertainment points out of a possible 17 from your comment.
Jeez - this was not even "just better" than expectations. This was at expectations for whatever even that is worth. Anyone with a simple knowledge of Statistics 101 would know that.
Lets see.. University of Michigan....
Here we go, here is their law professor. Go ahead and look it up:
You mean there might just possibly maybe there's-a-slight-chance unlikely-but-possible that many of these people have a conflict of interest? Oh my God.
But if this is correct than that means I can't trust anything my government or conflicted private parties tell me. What will I do? Who will tell me what to think or how I should feel or (God forbid) what to watch on TeeVee?
The end is near. Where's the Prozac when you really need it? :>)
Even better:
Steven Croley, who specializes in administrative law, civil procedure and regulation, will take a break from teaching duties to work for President Barack Obama's Domestic Policy Council in an ethics and regulatory role, U-M announced today.
Croley will join a number of U-M Law School alumni working in the White House, including Valerie Jarrett, an Obama senior advisor. Croley will report to Obama’s domestic policy adviser and U-M Law grad Melody Barnes.
go here: http://www.annarbor.com/news/university-of-michigan-law-school-professor...