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UN Blasts American Push To Force Chinese Currency Flotation, Warns That Current Markets Have The "Makings Of Highly Correlated Big New Bubbles"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The United Nations Conference On Trade And Development has issued a new policy brief in which it blasts reinvigorated unilateral demands by assorted "economists, editorialists and politicians" who have "taken it upon themselves to “remind” the surplus countries, and in particular the country with the biggest surplus, China" that it is now their responsibility to do what it must to facilitate US exports. Instead, the UNCTAD argues that the "decision to leave currencies to the vagaries of the market will not help rebalance the global economy." It also notes that "the international community has allowed global monetary incoherence to reign before and after the crisis. Indeed, “markets” were permitted to manipulate currencies in a way that made some sovereign governments and central banks look like penniless orphans. The need for a new approach to global macro-economic governance is more urgent than ever, because today’s currency chaos has become a threat to international trade and could be used as an alibi by major trading countries for resorting to protectionist measures." Of course, when it comes to what Uncle Sam demands, all else is secondary, and everyone should immediately drop their pants and do his bidding. Not in this case though: the UNCTAD makes it clear that China should continue doing what it is doing, as acquiescing to US extortion would risk destabilizing the world economy once again.

The UN next proceeds to caution against the massive global casino which has been renewed courtesy of irresponsible bubble blowing policies practices by virtually all central banks across the globe:

In fact, the calm after the storm of the recent financial meltdown did not last for long. Institutional “investors” are back in business in global currency markets. With their resurgence, countries are again facing huge inflows of hot money that cannot be put to any productive use, but which create severe price misalignments and trade distortions. The global “casino”, nearly empty a year ago, is crowded again, and many new bets are on the table. However, the recovery in the real economy is modest at best. In fact, the rebound of stocks, commodity futures and currency trade in several emerging and developing economies since March 2009 displays the makings of highly correlated big new bubbles and the threat of a new round of financial crisis. Of even greater concern is that the crisis notwithstanding, faith in “market fundamentalism” is unswerving. That faith continues to sustain the naïve belief that a solution to misalignment may be found by leaving the determination of exchange rates to unregulated financial markets.

The UNCTAD points out that this brand new round of irrational exuberance will likely impact the economies of developing countries, whose currencies are used by carry traders across the world to hedge positions shorting low yielding currencies.

The effects of the new exuberance on financial markets are adverse for countries with once-fragile currencies, such as Brazil, Hungary and Turkey. Exploiting the differentials between interest rates, the so-called currency carry trade in these countries and in the big financial markets of the North has become even easier today. Rates in the North are generally close to zero, whereas maintaining “confidence” in countries with weaker currencies – under the aegis of IMF programmes since the onset of the crisis – has called for higher rates than before. The first results of the new “confidence” in weak currencies are ominous. An appreciation of the Brazilian real and the Hungarian forint has forestalled urgently needed gains in competitiveness and could again lead to severe overvaluation, a dramatic distortion of trade patterns and new imbalances.

Focusing specifically on China, the UN may hope that the 130 Congressmen who have endorsed the simplistic push for CNY flotation, although it will certainly not happen. Which is unfortunate, because the UN's warning is that should China agree to be bullied by the US, the world may experience another financial crisis.

In fact, as a response to the current global crisis that originated elsewhere, China has done more than any other emerging economy to stimulate domestic demand, and as a result its import volume has expanded significantly. Private consumption is rising at breakneck speed. According to several estimates, Chinese private consumption increased by 9% in 2009 in real terms, dwarfing all the other major countries’ attempts to revive their domestic markets. But even in the preceding decade, real private consumption, at an average 8% growth rate, was an important driver of growth, backed by wage and salary increases in the two-digit range and strong productivity growth. Unit labour costs (nominal compensation divided by productivity) are rising more there than elsewhere, resulting in a continuous loss in competitive power even with a fixed exchange rate. Expecting that China will leave its exchange rate to the mercy of totally unreliable markets and risk a Japan-like appreciation shock ignores the importance of its domestic and external stability for the region and for the globe.

And a direct stab at the "sterile polemic" that has gripped the US over the past several days as push for CNY floating escalates:

It is time to break with a sterile polemic that ignores the increasing evidence from a range of experiences showing that both absolutely fixed/pegged and fully flexible/floating exchange rate systems are suboptimal. These so-called “corner solutions” have added to volatility and uncertainty and aggravated the global imbalances. With this as a starting point, the debate can move forward to explore new common formulas for exchange rate management that increase consistency between trade and financial flows in a globalized economy.

The full UNCTAD presentation below should be read by all who wish to grasp the other side of the story, instead of merely the unilateral rhetoric that mainstream media has been exposing US society to.

Yet what is possibly the most damning observation for a push to CNY flotation is the following chart which compares the relative levels of the DXY and CNY. Obviously, as the DXY strengthened, the CNY compensated by strengthening alongside. Yet as the DXY has weakened, the CNY has remained at a fixed level. The ironic observation is that the Chinese currency, at least as determined by some relative ratio with the US Dollar is, in fact, overvalued, and likely by about 10%.

The irony in all of this, is that while both countries have been pursuing the same QE-style politics, China has been much more successful due to its increased productivity, its trade balance, and its much lower debt burden. Is this whole episode seeking to punish, and push China to do what the US needs, merely yet another case of monetarist scapegoating? Even if the answer is yes, we are confident it is irrelevant. It is completely unreasonable to assume that China will force its currency higher merely to satisfy its biggest debtor (ironically enough, no politicians in the US seem to know what leverage is, in this case focusing on its "negotiation" variant). And as The Economist pointed out, further demands for China to do something, anything, will only be met with increased rebuffs and derisive laughter of the variety that Tim Geithner already experienced once.

 

 


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Tue, 03/16/2010 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

And the UN has some great economic minds...............................

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 20:05 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Yeah.

And Scientific; Anthropological Global Warming
Medical; Flu Pandemic, WHO.
Budgetary; Prolific Graft and Waste
Disarmament; Int'l Nuclear Nonproliferation.
Desires for Global Taxes and Currency

Character...Assholes Don't Even Pay Their Own Parking Tickets

Shared Sociopathic Compulsions with Wall Street

Stick 'em Back Under Their Rocks.

Thu, 03/18/2010 - 00:22 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

Not to be pedantic, but it's "anthropogenic".

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 16:44 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Obviously those bitchez don't know who we are. USA! USA!

 

Do as you're told or get mutilated by our corrupt geriatric ninja fedgub beochez!

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 16:45 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

The global “casino”, nearly empty a year ago, is crowded again, and many new bets are on the table. However, the recovery in the real economy is modest at best. In fact, the rebound of stocks, commodity futures and currency trade in several emerging and developing economies since March 2009 displays the makings of highly correlated big new bubbles and the threat of a new round of financial crisis. 

They could have saved a lot of time and just said "echo bubble".

for those who talk of bernanke as the great historian, he seems to have missed the part about boom, bust cycles.  his failed policies have created an echo bubble in one year, with absolutely no success on the underlying economic and financial issues, mainly: 1. a major bank crises 2. high debt on consumer and gov'tal and some corp levels. 3. massive unemployment.  

it ain't gonna work bernanke until the deleveraging begins and we have not even started with the banks.  there is your future history folks.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 20:43 | Link to Comment Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

It's like Rod Serling enters the frame "You are entering another time, another dimension..." fade to black.

When Reggie shows the derivative exposure of JPM, it will only take an LCTM or European debt default (child's play these days) to tip the scales. The ripple effect will be huge. All off balance sheet, of course, but that's when the smart money will move in for the kill.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 16:50 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I smell globalists........

SDR slavery anyone anyone , well then we have more forceful means at our disposal - bring out the BIS  - we will see how you can resist such debasement you Republican scum  

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 16:51 | Link to Comment Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

The uhnn-?  They're still around?  I thought they learjeted themselves to death at climate change conferences, in between polar bear roasts.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 16:51 | Link to Comment GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

Who cares?

Its not like what we do has to make sense to anyone.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 16:56 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

dog and pony show 

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:25 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

cheeky....i'm glad you are back.  your insights are most valuable!  thanks.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:48 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

dude, my insights are, AT BEST, a notch above retarded.

but thanks. its nice to be back. i kinda missed this place. that is if one can miss bytes and letters.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:56 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

my insights are, AT BEST, a notch above retarded.

nice try but it won't work with me.  i've read your stuff from day one.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:59 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

vultures and meat.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 18:04 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

 Boats 'N Hoes 

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 16:57 | Link to Comment ThreeTrees
ThreeTrees's picture

While I like the more realistic view the UN expresses here with regards to bubbles and the flaws in current macroeconomic policy the Libertarian in me chafes at the call for increased governance coupled with economic doublespeak.

“markets” were permitted to manipulate currencies in a way that made some sovereign governments and central banks look like penniless orphans

Wtf does this even mean?  Markets can't manipulate anything.  Central Banks manipulate markets, period.  Sounds to me like more anti-free market rhetoric.  Although I guess it's to be expected that an organization with a mandate for coordinated, global governance would buy into the socialist market fallacies.  Larger, more coordinated interventions in the free-market will not fix anything because their tool kit is precisely what causes the problems in the first place.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:25 | Link to Comment aurum
aurum's picture

markets cant manipulate anything?

goldman manipulates all day everyday and they arent a.....oh wait i just answered my own question...goldman is THE central bank..had to throw to that in.

Wed, 03/17/2010 - 07:14 | Link to Comment Grappa
Grappa's picture

How can anyone anymore even speak of free-markets? There hasn't been free-markets in the last 30 years. Probably never.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:01 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

A very timely report.  Let's see what the MSM does with it (sumpin tells me cries for Chinese blood are gonna be real popular on Fox, Rush, etc., at the very least.) 

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:16 | Link to Comment masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Actually, Rush has expressed the opinion that attempts to blame the Chinese are ludicrous.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:01 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

tURN OUT THE LIGHTS OVER AT THE u.n. AND SEND THEM BITCHEZ PACKIN'!

 

I find your lack of faith disturbing. Feel the wrath of Lord Blankcheck bitchez!

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:02 | Link to Comment 10044
10044's picture

2 things can happen now:
-riots around 42nd st
-tarrifs to be put up to protect American jobs

If people were smart, both would happen

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:21 | Link to Comment tenaciousj
tenaciousj's picture

I will bet my own currency (tenacious bucks) that neither will happen.

FYI, for anyone wanting to follow along TENUSD is currently at  1.21

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 18:02 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

42nd st hookers, waving, arms in air

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:06 | Link to Comment Tripps
Tripps's picture

THIS IS SIMPLY AMAZING TO SEE THE UN PRINT THIS. GREAT MINDS THINK ALIKE. THIS IS EXACTLY WHERE WE ARE AT AND ON DANGEROUS GROUND....TRADE WARS, YOU NAME IT

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Ras Bongo
Ras Bongo's picture

S&P : RSI (5) at 95.22 today on the daily chart.

Is this the final blow off top?

Some think it is imminent:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17862.html

 

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:29 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

don't most folks use RSI (14)?  i really think that is the case.....anyways, rsi is certainly up there....

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:13 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

Like the Lehman expose, er, Examiner's Report, this will be ignored by a market hell bent on "predicting" an ever brighter future in retail, housing, gadgets and especially CRE.

Nothing will stop until there is complete and utter collapse.  Bernanke stated as much today, though he doesn't know it. 

Wed, 03/17/2010 - 07:16 | Link to Comment Grappa
Grappa's picture

I do really wish that you're wrong...

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

Well, the onus of consumption was squarely on the US to buy Chinese crap..which they did at incredible levels........matter of fact they couldn't get enough of the crap.  Wal Mart is the US distributor of Chinese crap.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:17 | Link to Comment Fritz
Fritz's picture

The US is the bubblemaster.

They ain't seen shit yet. 

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Bubbles might not work as bubbles need suckers in mass amounts.  These suckers take it in the tail while the bubble is blown into said tail.  While many suckers are indeed present, their ability to borrow their way into this bubble has diminished greatly.  Some of us have actually closed out the gate to our aforementioned tails.  Right now the bubble is being blown by the Fed who is instinctively sucking the bubble up its own tail.  What's that word where one is able to suck their own......never mind. 

While this circle jerk grows tiresome, only one other trick in the book is available with out dropping bombs on the Chinese.  I would think we have seen what is coming and I anticipate that the forthcoming protectionist measures will backfire miserably and blow a big old stinking load of reality on the face of the Fed and Capital Hill. 

Loads to the face....uh.......uhuhuhuh....yeah!

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 22:21 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Thats the problem with this whole bubble scenario.  There is only one bubble left, and thats soverign debt (Treasuries, muni-bonds etc.).  You see this is the problem, you or I or anybody on this blog doesn't have 500 million or a few billion or more to buy this junk.  They have to go to the big or moderate players and try to scam them, and there not buying.  What we have is a circular firing squad where everybody that has money and power are trying to threaten the others into taking their junk in order to keep their country afloat and nobody is buying.  So the only way is to have other countries central banks buy our debt or the other, but as you saw with Portugal a month ago (failed auction) and Greece (a successful failed auction) the only way to have a successful auction in the US is to buy your own debt and act as if somebody else is buying it.  This is like the snake eating its tail because it's hungry.

 

The world has blown enough bubbles (in particularly the US) that the only thing left are the countries debts.  China doesn't like to be told that they need to do this or that especially when they haven't demanded higher interest rates for their Treasuries and other bonds that they bought.  I mean thats gratitude, China could come out and say from the state that we want higher rates of returns on our investments otherwise we will STOP BUYING YOUR DEBT.  This way the ball is in our court and its a shot across the bough of the US.  Because by the Chinese saying this it upsets the markets and the bond markets big time and they want better returns also.  And if the US doesn't do that then the market will see the US can't do it and that they essentially aren't able to fund their debt they issue.

This act would force the US to make a decision, save the domestic economy or save our whole economy (international).  They will pick international and try to BS the domestic so that they can still be considered a country.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:38 | Link to Comment chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Fortunately, this isn't getting a lot of press in China. Yet.

With the recent Olympics in China, the World Expo this year & the manner in which China recently bitch-slapped the West at the Copenhagen Climate Conference, China, IMO is drawing a line in the sand.

They are saying: "Look world, we are a "Big Dog" now with the potential to become "The Biggest Dog". We are going to assert ourselves as a World power so you'd better treat us with due respect".

I'm not saying I agree with this, but this is what I've seen unfolding.

In China "face" is much more important than folks realize. You push the Chinese into a corner, now, at this particular point in history, and the results will be more than posturing. Causing the Chinese to lose face, now, might cause them to hurt their own self interests "to save face", because the monetary value of saving face is more important than the folks crafting anti-Chinese policy realize.

Go on, stick it to the Chinese! I speak Mandarin, have life long Chinese friends and a Chinese god son. And when history records that pushing China, at this point in time, probably wasn't the best idea.....well, too "F"ing bad.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 18:08 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

am german, but agree with you re Chinese.

I am surprised by the forbearance China has shown so far.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:44 | Link to Comment RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

There always has to be someone else to blame now doesn't there Chuckie.  I really kinda (well maybe not) like to see what the reaction would be if China just said Thank you, but no thank you at the next auction and then make it known in the press. 

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:53 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

This is just too good.  The US, who has tried its best over the years to downplay the US authority in the UN to make it more "global", is now being bitch-slapped by the UN at the behest of China.  Man....talk about the chickens coming home to roost.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

My tin foil hat once told me that the US was really the UN.  Guess I could throw that NWO nonsense out the window...or do I?

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:53 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Dr. Panitchpakdi's country which is Thailand is very dependent on trade with China. Floating the yuan would make Chinese goods more expensive for his people.

This is not exactly an unbiased report.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 18:00 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

Who would you expect to be unbiased on this issue?  Chuck Shumer?  The fact that the US suffers from the action of China (even if that were true) doesn't mean the rest of the world, who continues to buy goods from China, should suffer so that the policy-makers in the US can cover up their flawed policies.  I would think this is the best use of the UN in my lifetime.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:56 | Link to Comment faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

UN, schmoo-in.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 18:14 | Link to Comment pak
pak's picture

A bunch of freaking socialists, that's what these UNCTAD guys are.

Of course, it's always "the North" (what a useless word, is China in the Southern Hemisphere?) that's guilty, and the rest of the world are just innocent victims.

"The global “casino”, nearly empty a year ago, is crowded again, and many new bets are on the table". Does anyone happen to notice that the whole "reflation" casino is being managed by the Chinese now?

"Expecting that China will leave its exchange rate to the mercy of totally unreliable markets.." - do they mean the Chinese have done nothing in the last 10 years that made the "bubbles" so big and so dangerous? How could the US flood these "markets" with a huge oversupply of liquidity without the Chinese complicity?

"Unreliable markets"? Who said markets should be.. what? reliable? and what is this supposed to mean?

You Americans made the biggest mistake in your history 30 years ago when you made friends with the Chinese to destroy the Soviets - and helped them find their way out of the Medieval Age where they were stuck. Look, they now think they have a right to twist anyone's arms as they wish!

If the UNCTAD people solicited a bribe from the CPC to write this piece they're mean and dangerous. If they didn't, they are foolish - and thus much more dangerous.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 18:21 | Link to Comment doublethink
doublethink's picture

 

China has been revaluing its currency over the past few years (see interactive chart below): from USD 1 = RMB 8.6 to RMB 6.8; that's a 21% increase.

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Currency.aspx?Symbol=CNY

 

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 19:56 | Link to Comment RhoRhoRhoBoat
RhoRhoRhoBoat's picture

Terribly incorrect assumption in the above article:

"Yet what is possibly the most damning observation for a push to CNY flotation is the following chart which compares the relative levels of the DXY and CNY. Obviously, as the DXY strengthened, the CNY compensated by strengthening alongside. Yet as the DXY has weakened, the CNY has remained at a fixed level. The ironic observation is that the Chinese currency, at least as determined by some relative ratio with the US Dollar is, in fact, overvalued, and likely by about 10%."

The CNY is FLAT relative to USD, the USD is weaker against currencies EXCLUDING China.  This, it is boneheaded to try and claim the CNY is "overvalued" relative to USD (which is the implication in that poor analysis), only that it may be "overvalued" against the other currencies, which is still a tenous claim at best.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 20:02 | Link to Comment MikeNYC
MikeNYC's picture

The UN itself was the home of one of, if not THE largest pre-Madoff fraud. Remember when stealing $20B meant something?

 

Everyone seems to have forgotton what a giant money-stealing machine oil for food was, operated with the assistance and to the benefit of many UN staffers.

 

The UN also seem unable to build a single building, the new HQ,  on budget and schedule.

 

I'll take financial advice from MC Hammer before I listen to the UN about any economic matters.

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 20:54 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

This is true, but the virus has now spread and all available hosts have been consumed.  It is time for the beast to consume itself.  It's like a big old Texas Holdem Tourney and the big boys are starting to go all in.  This should be fun to watch.  Possibly painful for us all or possibly the greatest moment of Darwinism to ever happen.  An evolutionary extinction of currency happening so fast time seems to stand still?

I like to think the later as it goes well with a nice sour diesel sativa. 

 

Tue, 03/16/2010 - 20:37 | Link to Comment Pinefox
Pinefox's picture

Whether China's currency value has caused the US problem or not, for Chuck Schumer to blame the Chinese for all of our problems is down right ludicrous. Just another indication of how dysfunctional our government is. From the Community Reinvestment Act, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, relaxing lending standards, the Fed leaving rates so low under Greenspan fueling the real estate bubble, ad nauseum, we have shot ourselves in our own foot.

Wed, 03/17/2010 - 00:23 | Link to Comment Lonewar
Lonewar's picture

And today China announced that it will revalue its currency.

One Yuan is now equal to, and tradable at any Bank of China branch in Mainland China, for 1/10th gram of .999 pure gold.

In other news China also announced that it is selling ~$850 billion in US Treasuries and will only buy more at a yield of 10+%.

Also China stated that it is buying ~$750 billion US dollars worth of .999 pure gold that has been assayed by a Chinese refinery.

Wed, 03/17/2010 - 06:02 | Link to Comment Alexandra Hamilton
Alexandra Hamilton's picture

Judging from this snippet:

Rates in the North are generally
close to zero, whereas maintaining “confidence” in
countries with weaker currencies – under the aegis
of IMF programmes since the onset of the crisis

has called for higher rates than before. The first
results of the new “confidence” in weak currencies
are ominous. An appreciation of the Brazilian real
and the Hungarian forint has forestalled urgently
needed gains in competitiveness and could again
lead to severe overvaluation
, a dramatic distortion
of trade patterns and new imbalances.

Unctad thinks that the IMF is instrumental in in enabling currency speculation which is detrimental to the real economic interest of countries.

I think they are right.

Wed, 03/17/2010 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

It is just as ignorant to say that the entire problems of the developed world's economies is a undervalued Yuan, as it is to say that Chinese intentional undervaluing of the Yuan has had no effect.

 

Sadly the folks who are now jumping on this bandwagon are idiots of the first kind, while this UN letter is by idiots of the second kind.  Now who is benefited by each group's common idiocy?  This is only the next small skirmish in the up-comming world-wide trade war.  It will be getting ugly soon I suspect.

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 09:14 | Link to Comment mark456
mark456's picture

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