This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
UN: Radiation to Hit U.S. By Friday
The New York Times notes:
A United Nations
forecast of the possible movement of the radioactive plume coming from
crippled Japanese reactors shows it churning across the Pacific and
touching the Aleutian Islands on Thursday before hitting Southern
California late Friday.***
The projection, by the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, an arm of the United
Nations in Vienna, gives no information about actual radiation levels
but only shows how a radioactive plume would probably move and
disperse.***
The forecast, calculated Tuesday, is
based on patterns of Pacific winds at that time and the predicted path
is likely to change as weather patterns shift.***
The
Japan forecast shows that the radioactive plume will probably miss the
agency’s monitoring stations at Midway and in the Hawaiian Islands but
is likely to be detected in the Aleutians and at a monitoring station
in Sacramento.
The forecast assumes that radioactivity in
Japan is released continuously and forms a rising plume. It ends with
the plume heading into Southern California and the American Southwest,
including Nevada, Utah and Arizona. The plume would have continued
eastward if the United Nations scientists had run the projection
forward.
The Times provides a series of images to illustrate the projected path of radiation, ending with this one:
(click here for a moving graphic timeline.)
Similarly, Yoichi Shimatsu - former editor
of the Japan Times Weekly, who led the field research for an
architectural report on structural design flaws that led to the tsunami
death toll in Thailand - wrote a couple of days ago:
The
Pacific jetstream is currently flowing due east directly toward the
United States. In the event of a major meltdown and continuous
large-volume radioactive release, airborne particles will be carried
across the ocean in bands that will cross over the southern halves of
Oregon, Montana and Idaho, all of California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado,
Wyoming, the Dakotas, northern Nebraska and Iowa and ending in
Wisconsin and Illinois, with possible further eastward drift depending
on surface wind direction.
The timeline of the UN's forecast is suprising, given that the earthquake hit on March 11th, and Accuweather formerly estimated the following times for radiation - in a worst-case scenario - to reach the West Coast:
Calculated
time for radioactive particles to cross the Pacific from the power
plants in Japan to big West Coast cities if the particles take a direct
path and move at a speed of 20 mph:
Cities Est. Distance (miles) Est. Time to Cross Pacific (days) Anchorage 3,457 7 Honolulu 3,847 8 Seattle 4,792 10 Los Angeles 5,477 11
But
it is vital to note that many experts are saying that only extremely
low levels of radiation will hit Americans. As the New York Times
reports:
Health
and nuclear experts emphasize that radiation in the plume will be
diluted as it travels and, at worst, would have extremely minor health
consequences in the United States, even if hints of it are ultimately
detectable. In a similar way, radiation from the Chernobyl disaster in
1986 spread around the globe and reached the West Coast of the United
States in 10 days, its levels measurable but minuscule.
***
On Sunday, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission said it expected that no “harmful levels of radioactivity” would travel from Japan to the United States “given the thousands of miles between the two countries.”
***
On
Wednesday, the agency declined to release its Japanese forecast, which
The New York Times obtained from other sources. The forecast was
distributed widely to the agency’s member states.***
The
chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Gregory B. Jaczko, said
Monday that the plume posed no danger to the United States. “You just
aren’t going to have any radiological material that, by the time it
traveled those large distances, could present any risk to the American
public,” he said in a White House briefing.***
In
Germany on Wednesday, the Federal Office for Radiation Protection held a
news conference that described the threat from the Japanese plume as
trifling and said there was no need for people to take iodine tablets.
It is also important to remember that this is likely not just a one-day freak-out kind of event. As the Times previously noted:
Experts
in Japan and the United States say the country is now facing a
cascade of accumulating problems that suggest that radioactive releases
of steam from the crippled plants could go on for weeks or even months.
And keep in mind that iodide only protects against one particular
radioactive element: radioactive iodine, technically known as
iodine-131. Iodine-131 has a half life of only 8.02 days. That means that half of the iodine loses its radioactivity within 8 days.
In contrast, plutonium has a half life of up to 80 million years, and is one of the most hazardous substances in the world. Fukushima reactor number 3 burned a plutonium-uranium mix, and has lost containment.
However, as NPR points out:
Although
plutonium is a long-lived emitter of radiation, it is also quite
heavy, so it is not likely to move very far downwind from its source.
Therefore, Americans will likely not be exposed to any plutonium.
Other possible radioactive elements from Japan include some elements - like radioactive nitrogen (with a half life of seven seconds) - decay so quickly that they could not possibly make it to the U.S. in radioactive form.
The New York Times noted last week that - in addition to iodine-131, the big danger is cesium:
Over the long term, the big threat to human health is cesium-137, which has a half-life of 30 years.
At that rate of disintegration, John Emsley wrote in “Nature’s Building
Blocks” (Oxford, 2001), “it takes over 200 years to reduce it to 1
percent of its former level.”
It is cesium-137 that still contaminates much of the land in Ukraine around the Chernobyl reactor.
***
Cesium-137 mixes easily with water and is chemically similar to
potassium. It thus mimics how potassium gets metabolized in the body and
can enter through many foods, including milk.
***
The
Environmental Protection Agency says that ... once dispersed in the
environment ... cesium-137 “is impossible to avoid.”
Cesium-137 is light enough to be carried by the wind a substantial distance.
But this is still largely conjecture, as neither the government or
private sector scientists have yet publicly disclosed the exact
radioactive elements headed towards the U.S.
Again, the important thing is whether a little or a lot of
radiation makes it to America. If only a little bit, it's no big
deal. We've all had x-rays, eaten bananas (which - believe it or not -
contain radioactive potassium-40),
and been exposed to other forms of low=level radiation. Indeed, the
Times notes we've all been exposed to some cesium-137 our whole lives:
The
Environmental Protection Agency says that everyone in the United
States is exposed to very small amounts of cesium-137 in soil and water
because of atmospheric fallout from the nuclear detonations of the cold
war.
»
- advertisements -
Just wait until the CME's and solar storms begin hitting the Earth. The magnetic poles will reverse, the Earth will stop rotation for three days, during which massive tsunami will sweep across the surface of the planet.
Extinction Level Event
Then the Earth will resume rotation in the opposite direction, and Sol will rise in the West.
GF in radiation therapy being given Bi-Carb for kidney protection. Is BiCarb part of your regimen?
http://sodiumbicarbonate.imva.info/:
That's happened many times before in history and is recorded in lava flows which imbedded reversed magnetic directions as they cooled below their Curie temperature. And many populations witnessed such events before they were almost totally decimated. Geneticists say that DNA analysis reveals the world population was once reduced to less than 5000 people, and a variety of ethnic myths recount days when the earth stood still, or the sun was made to rise in the west, or the stars fell (spun) in the heavens. It has happened, was witnessed, and can be again.
For me though it looks like the next extinction event will be the world credit collapse.
happy fun times
on planet earth..
brown dwarf star also...
You can't see it, smell it, feel it, hear it, or taste it. By the time you've received a lethal dose, it's too late.
My preventative will be large doses of sea kelp extract (natural iodine), calcium ascorbate, and vitamin C. Magnesium and potassium (as ascorbate) is also a good plan (for me).
Build up your immune system. It's still possible with supplements.
You are not aware that Kelp (iodine) and K1 (iodide) are two different things?
Bentonite clay is very helpful too.
Isn't that cat litter? I mean, before we started using whole kernel corn to make it.
When a small jar of it cost about 15 dollars, I really don't think it is cat litter...duh?????
Interesting plan - Linus Pauling swore by vitamin C as a prophylactic from a lot of toxic(s). Who ever junked you must be planning on using Jack Daniels
Don't dis the Jack. Jack always has your back.
The junker might be voting for prevention over treatment.
Grey Goose and Orange Juice seems to be a palative combination of the two.
Nuclear 2.0
http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Andrea_A._Rossi_Cold_Fusion_Gener...
check out the DIY section...
Wow! Amazing!
Is this real, or just a joke? If this is real, this is BIG! Cold fusion!
I hope this is real...
If this cold fusion really works, which it looks like it does, isn't this a game changer for energy?
The UN is so pathetic.
I just might have believed, if all the power plants in Japan went Chernobyl, that some radiation would reach the US by friday, but now that the UN said it, you can guarantee that its bullshit.
"Spitzer" says its BS.
Everybody, stop panicking now!
I can't help thinking of the Bikini Atol hydrogen bomb tests that were much bigger, and closer, in the fifties. Not to mention all the above ground and underground tests in Nevada between 1945 and 70.
If they weren't a danger to the public how can a small reactor accident in Japan have any effect on North America? Or was the government bullshitting us back then?
This may be a very serious disaster for Japan but I can't see it having a noticable effect on North America.
Two wrongs don't make a right, thats how we ended up with Obama.
"If they weren't a danger to the public"
Really? So you want to resume open air nuclear testing as well?
So then , all the inane tests of nuclear devices has not caused a rampant increase in cancer since the 40's and 50's. Usurpers of the earth , destroyers of mankind to fund their own selfish ambitions. Yeah ,everythings still cool .
dupe
"Within three to five years after atmospheric testing, leukemia and other radiation-caused cancers appeared in residents of Utah, Arizona, and Nevada living in areas where nuclear fallout had occurred."
"...ewes began miscarrying in large numbers and at the lambing yards wool sloughed off in clumps revealing blisters on adult sheep. New lambs were stillborn with grotesque deformities or born so weak they were unable to nurse. Ranchers lost as much as a third of their herds."
http://historytogo.utah.gov/utah_chapters/utah_today/nucleartestingandth...
The Duke has a bit of history to say on this.
Thats right.
You know its bullshit when the UN says it.
Don't forget the Russian testing too, and they tested bigger stuff then the US. That 50 megaton one was cool, they had to put a special coating on the plane that dropped it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxD44HO8dNQ
The tzar bomba was actually the cleanest bomb by yield, ever. A full 95% of the yield was from fusion. The tamper(the part which creates the real explosive power in a thermonuclear device) was entirely lead in the test device. Now, if they had tested the 100MT production device, with its natural uranium tamper, we'd have seen a large swathe of Siberia uninhabitable.
Now that one was a stunt. It broke windows 1200 + miles away in Sweden I believe. The Blast wave reached the edge of space, bounced down and blasted the windows. They needed a parachute to drop that SOB and slow it's fall so that the POS bomber can lumber away to a safe distance.
We did several big detonations in kind.
Now. Here is the different in those days during the Missile/Warhead mega race.
The USSR Missile to deliver a warhead to the USA would have weighed close to 600 ton and stood about 460 feet tall if memory serves. The United States would do the same job with just a 360 ton missile at about 250+ feet. Not quite as much megatonnage but accuracy was there.
Also our Titans of the day were ready to go at a moment's notice. A few were lost here in Arkansas when someone lost a wrench and it fell into the skin of the missile blowing it off, the silo cap off and throwing the nuclear war heads some hundreds of yards away.
The old maps of DC and Baltimore had 16 circles donating a fireball and 8 (Respectively) ensuring that the entire city within the boundary lines were consumed in fire all at the same time or nearly so.
There were at the time 24 Nike batteries around the two and combined with 5 or 6 other specific areas like Detroit, San Fran etc also had Nikes. To use the Nikes meant that the fallout will fall back onto the areas being defended anyway.
Back to the Radiation dot net. My order is in and I am waiting for the factory to ship me a unit so I can get our home online to help monitor here in the USA. That plume is probably going to eventually get into our farmlands over time.
The US: "We will hit it."
Russians: "If we miss, we will still hit it."
Does this mean an end to the nuclear Renisance in America?
When things settle down, I think this nuclear tragedy will support the nuclear industry, not trash it. Largest earthquake ever for Japan. Huge tsunami. And the reactors did not leak (if this turns out to be true). The fact that spent fuel rods were being stored on-site and unprotected is an anomaly. Take away the cooling pool fiasco and look at what would be left. One of the largest physical jolts possible and the reactor design held (assuming total melt-down and radioactive material pooled at the bottom of the enclosure).
I'm just pointing out the obvious here. Not arguing for anyone's point-of-view.
ROFL! If you could take that darned water out of a tsunmai they wouldn't do as much damage either :)
The only obvious thing I can see in your post is your obvious cluelessness as to what has already been reported and confirmed.
Then look a little closer. I made my post only because I have been reading extensively. My comments were about the reactor and the enclosure that inhibits melted-down material from burning through into the ground. That seems to have held, as it was designed to do (and probably helped a lot by the workers keeping the reactors relatively cool to allow some time to pass). After thing settle down, I think this evidence will help the pro nuclear crowd rather than hurt it.
My comments were directed at this non-melt-into- the-ground aspect of the reactors and not at the general destruction of the buildings surrounding the reactors. If the spent fuel rods were all gone when the disaster struck, would there be a difference in the amount of radiation released? I think you know that the answer is yes. And that is the point I was making.
I am on the anti-nuke plants side, not pro nuke plants - because no good solution has been devised to protect us from the radioactive waste. This accident has made that point more clear in my mind. It will not probably be the reactors that give us problems in any given accident. It will more likely be the radioactive waste. Just like the situation unfolding in front of us now. Until the radioactive waste disposal problem is solved, it won't matter that the reactors are relatively safe.
The power company itself admits that some of the reactors have leaked.
I must've missed that admission. We're talking about leaking plutonium and uranium. Everybody knows they're leaking iodine and cesium; they've been venting those on purpose.
what world do you pro-nuke guys live in? have a look at your noble reactors. they are in tatters. the top floors are completely blown off. that's where the spent control rods were stored. the core is also leaking in many of them. radioactive fires in many. the situation is out of control. that's what the EU energy chief said not me.
it's like you are looking at a crashed and totaled BMW on the highway sprayed with blood and body parts everywhere and you are calling an ambulance and saying "hopefully there will be no injuries"
If I could I would get rid of all of those things in this country. They are dangerous and it is only a matter of time when we have a problem here. Messing around with atoms is just too damn dangerous and of course, let us not even talk about the waste products generated by this activity. I want those damn things closed out and I mean yesterday. If GE and Westinghouse suffer because of this, well that is just too damn bad. I don't like the environmental leftist but I hope they jump all over this. It is the end of the line for nuclear energy. It is time to close it out for good.
You do realize that the Japanese were in the process of moving spent fuel to dry casks and off-site storage, right?
GW, can you locate an infrared satellite photo of Fukushima to see if the roof top swimming pools can be seen in the blown out sections of the reactor buildings, of if there is evidence the fuel rods have been blown all over the place?
Ahhhhhhhh !!!!!
RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!
http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/03/radioactive-japan-geiger-counter-4...
Well, ok not yet if you live in the US...