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Underemployment Divergence: Seasonally Adjusted U-6 Drops To Two Year Low, As Non-Seasonally Adjusted Surges To One Year High

Tyler Durden's picture





 

And another curiously divergent dynamic: looking simply at the Seasonally Adjusted underemployment rate (U-6), which came at 16.1%, or the lowest since April 2009, and one might be excused for assuming that there is a silver lining, somewhere. That is, of course, until taking a look at the sister, NSA series. At 17.3%, this was the highest number since March 2010, and higher than just 3 months in the history of this series. 

 


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Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

Close your eyes, you feel sleepy very sleepy, listen to me, you will believe, the Hopium the green shoots, recovery, say after me, you believe, you believe....

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Will the Barack-fairy bring it mommy?... I've been awfully hungry and can't stand to eat another Reserve note.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment ft.knox.gold
ft.knox.gold's picture

hope and change

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment flaunt
flaunt's picture

It's all bullshit.  Where does this data come from, people who visit unemployment offices?  How many people receive benefits and pretend like they're looking for work so they can keep getting benefits?  The real U-6 number is probably far worse than reported.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

That's why I like Shadow Stats, King World News, Max Keiser, Al Jazeera, etc.

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Revolution_star...
Revolution_starts_now's picture

"It's all bullshit"

 

it's a damn PONZI scheme, I wouldn't expect anything less.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Could be worse. In fact, it is in Argentum^H^Hina.

Argentina Threatens To Fine Analysts Who Predict 30 Percent Inflation

Argentine economists say that the government has found a new way of dealing with high inflation: shoot the messenger.

The government this week sent a detailed questionnaire to private consultancies giving them 48 hours to spell out how they calculate their inflation estimates or face fines of up to 500,000 pesos ($125,000).

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac2f3b10-2fc2-11e0-91f8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz...

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

No probelm...

fines of up to 500,000 pesos ($125,000)

...as long as I can wait a few weeks to pay, that'll read: fines of up to 500,000 pesos ($12,500)!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:19 | Link to Comment John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

I was listsening to a group of 4 middle class mothers on the train yesterday for 20 minutes roughly and they have no idea what is going on. All I will say is that propaganda and sound bites on the MSM are incredibly effective.

One of them even said you know who I vote for in a heartbeat"Colin Powell..I love that man"

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:31 | Link to Comment fragrantdingleberry
fragrantdingleberry's picture

Colin's got the MILF vote?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Screwball
Screwball's picture

If we think the masses know what's really going on, we are fooling ourselves.  Well said JM.

On another site the other day a guy was talking about his mortgage getting transferred to another servicer.  A conversation started about what we on ZH knows as forclosuregate.  These people had no clue at all what was going on in the housing/mortgatge markets. None, zero.

I tried to explain the problems in simple terms and was laughed off the thread.  I was told I was just some leftist loon making a big deal out of something because I had a hard on for the banks.  There was no problems with mortgages, just make a phone call any everything is fixed.

There were over a dozen or so people with no idea we have a problem with mortgage paperwork, notes, titles, etc.  Easy prey.  They get what they deserve I guess.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:19 | Link to Comment What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

Tyler is so getting a subpeona

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

We are all Tyler

We are all Guy Fawkes

We are going to depose these tyrants

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:44 | Link to Comment serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

I must admit, however, that I was more than a little disappointed this past November 5th.

 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:21 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Hmmm...if we look at the chart, that same divergence pattern appears a year ago (Dec09-jan10) and a year before that (Dec08-Jan09, although both measures were climbing then). Until we see a widening trend, can't say it's not just the tracking method.

If there's a complaint here, it's that the BLS doesn't know how to update a model or incorporate some type of ARIMA-based past-error-related correction.  But really, we knew that when we saw the umpteenth week of "revised upward," didn't we.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:19 | Link to Comment francis_the_won...
francis_the_wonder_hamster's picture

Fellow-hamster....I noticed the exact same thing.  We know they do their once-a-year big adjustment the first week of February.  I seem to remember a pretty good ZH article about this last year......can anyone provide a link to this or any other articles on the subject?  I've done a few searches and come up empty....and I'm a bit busy today, so if anyone wants to be nice and save me some effort, it would be greatly appreciated.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 The chocolate ration has just been increased to 150 grams

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oceania have always been at war with Eurasia.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Nothing like a Victory Gin martini, olives are hard to find though...

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:47 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I would trade some Big Brother Ben fiatscos for a razor blade.  Does anybody have any razor blades?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:40 | Link to Comment FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Double good news brother!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

What a fucking gong show.  US creates 36K jobs and unemployment rate drops to 9%. Canada creates 69K jobs and unemployment rate goes UP to 7.8%

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-head-higher-open-U-S-capress-115...

Stocks head for higher open, U.S. jobless rate tumbles to nine per cent

You have entered the Twilight Zone.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

Walking on the hill with your pants on the ground.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:35 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Of course stocks are set to open higher and will probably close green today.

1) The screaming headline "UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS TO 9%!!! LOWEST IN LIKE EVER!!!!!!" will keep the hopium flowing to the sheeple

2) The people who know this report actually sucked outloud will all be (correctly) surmising that it's time to bake the next round of QE into the equities cake

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:48 | Link to Comment serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

The hopium is eventually discontinued. Walk through any of America's sprawling tent cities and witness the effects of hopium withdrawl.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:27 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Of course - but "eventually" is the operative word, there.

Boiling the frog.  Pretty soon, tent cities will be thought to be as American as (made in China) Apple Pie and (Government Motors) Chevrolet.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:21 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

When we move to the tent city, do we get to eat plastic rice too, huh huh?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

The explanation is simple:

 

This report "is a travesty. It's a travesty of a mockery of a sham of a mockery of a travesty of two mockeries of a sham"

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYp9WtbMo2k

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

On a long enough time scale, the majority realizes the impossible state of central planning.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:27 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

And the spin will be on mass media: "unemployment rate drops to 9. Can Mark Zandi be any more wrong. What a crock of crap on the idiot channel.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

Zandi is attributing it to the unusually bad January weather that cut into construction and hospitality. 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Gyoza Mimi
Gyoza Mimi's picture

The divergence seems to be a re-occuring pattern every January, which suggest that January numbers exhibit strong seasonality. The divergence is evidently due to the "seasonal" factor and alarms are not warranted.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I'm taking a victory lap here. Biflation theory keeps on explaining all that's going on. The vicious cycle has taken another turn: operating margins are squeezed at US corporations from rising input costs, but the costs can't be passed on to a constrained US consumer who's income, job security, real estate and retirement benefits are declining. So the response is aggressive cost cutting, meaning layoffs, outsourcing to Asia, cutting pay, benefits and hours. So the US consumer gets even more constrained. Cycle complete. 

In fact, part of what I call the Downsizing of America is reflected in these numbers now: we can't replace jobs lost during this business cycle. That's the second time in a row this is happening, only now on a much grander scale. The engine of growth is impaired by the Fed's monetary policy because it creates Biflation in the US. And US corporations will continue to cut and offshore. Look for "productivity" to continue to jump not because we're so efficient, but as a reflation of decreased pay for the same work

Adding to the problem: multinational US corporations will cull their US operations so as to shift focus on foreign markets where consumers are on the rise. Biflation blues. 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:59 | Link to Comment serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

It seems as if many people enjoy their state of denial. Almost like a willful and intentional cognitive dissonance. I'd be willing to wager that many Americans would even salivate upon command if provided with the appropriate stimulus. Ivan Pavlov was a great man.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 10:46 | Link to Comment satansanus
satansanus's picture

we are going to bring citigroup to the dirt.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:08 | Link to Comment satansanus
satansanus's picture

kill the bankers kill them all. Drag their bloody corpses through the streets. GET A CLEANSING REVENGE ON BANKERS

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I think we should take a lesson from the plains indians. They would tie up the pilgrims to the spokes of the wagon wheels, build a fire and slowly roast them.

Nothing like banksta's on a barbecue spit.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:22 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm all for it, but I don't expect to like the taste of minced Blankfein pie.

It's protein for the working poor, though, and Blankfein would finally be serving a worthwile purpose.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:13 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

Right on again Caviar.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

As mentioned numerous times, EURO downside and USD upside will keep recurring.

Bring on the overdue US Dollar rally: i'm
getting tired of talking about it.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:22 | Link to Comment ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

We're more tired of hearing you talk about it than you are of talking about it.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:40 | Link to Comment thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Seriously...where is it? Risk trade off a week ago right before Faber made his call.....So does Euroland go back into freefall post Mubarak?

When are these POS FRNs that I loathe going to rally....powder is dry.

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