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Underemployment At Record 20% According To Gallup

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just in case anyone needed confirmation that the DOL data is just a little, how should we say it, cooked, here comes Gallup with their March 15 undermployment number, which just hit a 2010, and series, high of 20%. This is obviously worse compared to both the beginning of the year (19.5%) and February (19.8%). Unlike the Dept of Labor's arcane voodoo which lately is based more on executive confidential memos and snowfall observations, Gallup's underemployment measure is based on more than 20,000 phone
interviews collected over a 30-day period and reported daily. Furthermore "Gallup's results are not seasonally adjusted and tend to be a precursor of government reports by approximately two weeks." We wonder if the abnormally hot March weather will used as an excuse for a deterioraiton in the most recent NFP numbers.

A summary of underemployment trends as per Gallup:

A profiling of the two components of the Underemployment index indicate that while Gallup's unemployment rate declined marginally from February and was at 10.3%, the percentage of those emplpoyed part time and seeking full time work surged to 9.7%.

 

Here is how Gallup interprets this data:

Focus on Underemployment, Not Unemployment

Even with historic healthcare legislation under consideration,
Congress passed and the president signed a new jobs creation bill on
March 18. No doubt, national attention will shortly shift to
unemployment and anticipation of the government's April 2 report of the
March unemployment rate. In this regard, Gallup's mid-March
unemployment rate is likely indicative of the not-seasonally adjusted
unemployment rate the government will release in April, as is Gallup's
broader underemployment rate.

The danger associated with focusing on unemployment is reflected by
the recent statement of Morgan Stanley economists suggesting that the
U.S. may add as many as 300,000 jobs in March owing to an improvement
in the weather, economic growth, and the government's hiring of
temporary census workers.
If anything close to this number of new jobs
is announced by the government in early April, there is likely to be an
enthusiastic, possibly even celebratory, response. Government officials
are liable to tout the continued benefits of last year's stimulus and
the future benefits of the new jobs bill.
Many Wall Streeters will
likely argue that the surge in jobs is simply another confirmation of
the strength of the overall economic recovery.

However, before policymakers celebrate too much, they should note
Gallup's recent findings involving its new, more inclusive measure of
underemployment. To be sure, there are some benefits associated with
the unemployed getting part-time jobs, no matter the source. For
example, Gallup's self-reported spending data show that part-time
workers who want full-time work spent on average 24% more per day ($51)
during the past 30 days than did the unemployed ($41). While this
represents an improvement and is good for the economy, it is not nearly
as good as the 85% higher daily spending of those having full-time jobs
($76).

It is also often suggested that a growth in part-time jobs may
indicate future growth in full-time work -- that companies hire
part-time workers before committing to hiring new full-time employees.
While this is sometimes the case, it may not be so at this point in the
U.S. economy: Gallup data show that one in three part-time employees
who are wanting full-time work are currently "hopeful" about finding a
full-time job in the next 30 days -- not much of an endorsement of the
idea that today's new part-time work will progress to full-time jobs.

Regardless of how one interprets the shifts taking place between
part-time and full-time jobs, it is important that policymakers focus
on the broader goal of reducing underemployment, not just unemployment.
Part-time, temporary jobs like those associated with census-taking are
far better than no job and may reduce the unemployment rate, but they
do not represent the kind of job creation needed for a sustainable
economic recovery.

We can't wait to see how much extra liquidity the Fed will be required to pump into the market to compensate for a possible microdip in markets should this bad data get the 15 seconds of fame it so wrongfully deserves.

 

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Mon, 03/22/2010 - 10:17 | 272167 Cistercian
Cistercian's picture

 Thanks for posting this Tyler.Of course, merely looking around where I live amply informs as to the smoking crater extent and depth.Companies closing forever, vastly less traffic on the roads, palpable fear of job loss/home loss.

 The American dream is now a dystopian disaster.It should be depressing to watch the now official looting of the health care system too.In an economy like ours, kind of like pushing the stick forward and engaging the afterburners....just to see how big a crater can be made.

 Ugly,very ugly.

 

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 14:07 | 272421 Brindle702
Brindle702's picture

+1

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 10:35 | 272168 bingaling
bingaling's picture

looks like this will be ignored but Moody's false 1% increase in value for Comm'l real estate (they must have access to banks valuation models)will save the day .

 

Headline at end of day "Stocks rise as Fed fears crash and throws kitchen sink at market on orders from Obama to not let market crash day after healthcare passes ."

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 10:22 | 272171 Mako
Mako's picture

You have only see the rate of decline - decline.   You are seeing an up wave within the largest down wave ever created.  Life is a series of cycles.

Federal Reserve Z1 report shows it all, it's over.  Every day the wall gets higher.

You can't beat the equation, the equation always always wins in the End.   Last down cycle last 22+ years and cost 100+ million and the destruction of Europse with parts of Africa and Asia to add in.  This one will be on a scale that makes that look like chump change.

 

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 14:19 | 272432 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Finally, someone more pessimistic than I !

Time to finish off the Rifle collection with this baby:

http://www.barrett.net/firearms/model82a1

The basement soon to be featured in the upcoming Tremors X

Move the fuck over Michael Gross....

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 14:44 | 272463 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

That little sucker will put a shell through an engine block, a big ole V-8 engine block. Makes my weapon look....er....limp. :>)

Ouch!

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 15:17 | 272518 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Yep, go right on through a man hole cover, almost through 1 inch of rolled steel! Semi auto too.

Mako's posts, for some reason, always peak my survival instincts,which are already on overdrive anyway.A few more posts from him and I'll be the proud owner of a 82A1!

 

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 10:33 | 272182 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

Irrelevant.  New stock highs are coming.  Buy every dip! :)

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 10:38 | 272185 crosey
crosey's picture

Not irrelevant.  But buy the dips anyway, and conserve capital.

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 10:44 | 272193 Double down
Double down's picture

You better !:)

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 14:51 | 272206 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Easily 20%

But we have health care reform!!! Yipee!

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 11:20 | 272229 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Employment is for losers.

Everyone should get a cushy gov't "job."

When the productive sector is gone, they'll just weimar the checks.

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 12:09 | 272285 macfly
macfly's picture

The humor in the comments almost make this tragedy bearable!

We really are living in interesting times, as the Chinese would say.

 

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 12:55 | 272343 fUny1
fUny1's picture

If we don’t stop warmongering as a nation, we will go the way of Weimar Republic.

http://funy1.blogspot.com/2010/03/collapse-phase-ii-hyper-deflation.html

Instead of worrying about moderninzing our work force in order to advance our nation, we are busy appeasing carnal cretins that use religious pretexts to start wars and subjugate their people and their enemies and peaceful coexistence on this mortal coil to constant danger.

We have allowed misguided warmongering zealots from 3 different sides to self fulfill ancient religious prophetic text in a bid to continuously wage war, mostly against the poor and helpless.

http://funy1.blogspot.com/2010/03/world-cup-is-right-around-corner-time....

There is a STAR of MOLOCH cult that is hell bent on creating an Armageddon holocaust combustion of the Earth and they have infiltrated the seats of puppet power of all sides of the Middle East conflict:

http://funy1.blogspot.com/2010/02/star-of-chiun-on-syrian-palace-floor-o...

You stand up to these warmongers by not partaking in their abominable fulfillment of prophecy. We also have to stop lying to the people with the release of the fictious official government statistics.

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 13:48 | 272398 trichotil
trichotil's picture

"The Third World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences caused by the "agentur" of the "Illuminati" between the political Zionists and the leaders of Islamic World. The war must be conducted in such a way that Islam (the Moslem Arabic World) and political Zionism (the State of Israel) mutually destroy each other. Meanwhile the other nations, once more divided on this issue will be constrained to fight to the point of complete physical, moral, spiritual and economical exhaustion…We shall unleash the Nihilists and the atheists, and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to the nations the effect of absolute atheism, origin of savagery and of the most bloody turmoil. Then everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the world minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate those destroyers of civilization, and the multitude, disillusioned with Christianity, whose deistic spirits will from that moment be without compass or direction, anxious for an ideal, but without knowing where to render its adoration, will receive the true light through the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer, brought finally out in the public view. This manifestation will result from the general reactionary movement which will follow the destruction of Christianity and atheism, both conquered and exterminated at the same time." 4

http://www.threeworldwars.com/albert-pike2.htm

 

Mon, 03/22/2010 - 13:50 | 272399 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

One in three means crap.  One out of three still think Bush was a great President.  Or that Al-qeada was from Iraq. 

1/3 of the populace believing that they might get a job in 30 days, doesn't make me feel optimistic, especially when that means 2/3  don't feel optimistic.  I wonder how many of those 1/3 won't get jobs, and feel good about getting one over the subsequent month?  Probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 1/3?

Wed, 04/14/2010 - 07:49 | 299681 mark456
mark456's picture

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