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Unemployment: Better, Worse or Less Bad?
Unemployment rates worsened in 30 states in January:
In other words, unemployment increased in the majority of states.
However, CNN is seeing the glass as half full, noting in a report entitled "State unemployment picture brightens":
A total of 30 states and Washington, D.C., reported rising unemployment rates in January, down from the number in the previous month, according to a government report released Wednesday.
Jobless rates decreased in nine states, according to the Labor Department's monthly report on state unemployment. Eleven states reported no change.
In December, 43 states reported monthly jobless rate increases.
In other words, the January numbers were less bad.
Better in February?
Joe Weisenthal, using the following 3 charts from Gluskin Sheff, argues that the jobs picture improved in February, leading to a permanent rebound in jobs:
Image: Gluskin-Sheff
Image: Gluskin-Sheff
Image: Gluskin-Sheff
What Does It Mean?
Month-to-month statistics are too imprecise, too easy to game, and are still too volatile to be very meaningful.
The real situation is that there has been a permanent loss of jobs in America.
And the administration has not taken the necessary steps to allow the
creation of a substantial number of long-term jobs. See this and this.
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I've always thought it slightly ajar that there doesn't seem to have been a Union for the Unemployed; it could be be called, like, the Double U. P. (Union of Unemployed People)
Unemployment=Good. It's that much less this irresponsible government has to spend!
Yea ... let the good times roll
Midrange to large companies have produced zero new jobs (net) over the last 10 years and thus the heavy lifting of creating new jobs is left to small companies who are currently struggling with major issues. With Bush tax cuts expiring in 2011, very few small businessmen have a desire to encumber themselves with additional risk for diminishing returns. This, coupled with the boomer demographic will led to a very long recovery cycle. Most small business owners that I know what to cash out ... and since they can't, they just hunker down and hope to generate lots of cash in 2010, which doesn't help create new jobs and an expanding small business base.
We have no 'hope of change' as long as Washington's small business perviousness continues.
Whenever one looks at these statistics one has to take out Federal employment
http://coburn.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=LatestNews.PressRel...
This should really be getting more attention,
especially now...
On one level of course you are right. But I would prefer if they all would just stay home.
My brief explanation of the US economy,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlZvY_LXJco
Is it un-american to have a healthy brain and using it ?
I will never trust the american propaganda anymore.
People are brainwashed and dumb.
America truly sucks.
Just about everyone we know either is out of work, business slowed by 50%, or working PT. SNAFU!
Job "openings" are a meaningless fucking term: I've seem jobs posted for YEARS because the corps/managers were being so damn picky. While I'm all for hiring the best candidate, the labor pool is NOT a super Wal-Mart. Hiring authorities cannot just select "ideal" skill-sets and expect them to magically appear (and then when those skill-sets don't appear, go crying to the government to "fix" it).
What I see--a lot--is managers demanding a "perfect" plug-and-play employee, requiring no on-boarding whatsoever. Every interview (save one) that I've had over the last three years was exactly the same in one point: I was expected to "figure out" my job; the hiring authority had no acquisition plan for new personnel at all, and these are the same people who bitch about a lack of "skills" in the work-force. Hmpt!
[/rant]
Oh, well. As long as the government is going to fix it...
For all those out of touch in Metropolis here's a report from 1 little town north of Los Angeles. Multiply x 100,000 at least:
From todays local paper:
Ventura program allows people to legally sleep in cars.
http://www.vcstar.com/news/2010/feb/26/ventura-to-allow-sleeping-in-cars...
Unemployment rate worst since 1990
http://www.vcstar.com/news/2010/mar/10/county-jobless-rate-highest-since...
Any questions?
Since UE seems to be the missing link for the markets to forge higher, the view of falling UE has to be a positive. However, given the reality of the minute (small) relative improvement, one would think the "priced in" figure is perhaps assumed to be better than what we're seeing to date.
Well, what does this mean? Actually, extended low rates and no move by the FED. These numbers are just not strong enough regardless of any signs of optimism.
Fact is, we'll not see "true" and "meaningful" improvement for months if not years. So, reality sets in at some point that we're not going to grow (steady GDP of 5+%) anywhere near what we need to justify market prices as they are today.
S&P estimates will not be reached and we're going to tank and sink but this time we stay down.
Done.
terribile in the toilet jobs .. cities are now in the process of firing , states,
thus idea that a 20% unemployment ,, and we loose an additional 35 thousand and because it is below some fictional number .. that things are getting better.
look out below,,, 9% of the gross national product has been added by the fed,, government jobs created , thus silly notion we can have a jobless recovering smacks of Littlepurple bubbles ... floating into some gossamer goo
Less jobs means means more people that can dedicate themselfs to the fun stuff in life. No big deal.