Unemployment Drops Amazingly To 10%, NFP Down 11.000 Much Higher Than Consensus, 17.2% U-6 Unemployment

Tyler Durden's picture

                         THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- NOVEMBER 2009

The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In the prior 3 months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month. In November, employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.

Household Survey Data

In November, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.4 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, edged down. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.5 million, and the jobless rate was 4.9 percent. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates for adult men (10.5 percent), adult women (7.9 percent), teenagers (26.7 percent), whites (9.3 percent), blacks (15.6 percent), and Hispanics (12.7 percent) showed little change in November. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs fell by 463,000 in November. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) rose by 293,000 to 5.9 million. The percentage of unemployed persons jobless for 27 weeks or more increased by 2.7 percentage points to 38.3 percent. (See tables A-8 and A-9.)

The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed in November at 65.0 percent. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 58.5 percent. (See table A-1.)

The number of people working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in November at 9.2 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-5.)

About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in November, an increase of 376,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-13.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 861,000 discouraged workers in November, up from 608,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in November (-11,000). Job losses in the construction, manufacturing, and information industries were offset by job gains in temporary help services and health care. Since the recession began, payroll employment has decreased by 7.2 million. (See table B-1.)

Construction employment declined by 27,000 over the month. Job losses had averaged 117,000 per month during the 6 months ending in April and 63,000 per month from May through October. In November, construction job losses were concentrated among nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-29,000).

Manufacturing employment fell by 41,000 in November. The average monthly decline for the past 5 months (-46,000) was much lower than the average monthly job loss for the first half of this year (-171,000). About 2.1 million manufacturing jobs have been lost since December 2007; the majority of this decline has occurred in durable goods manufacturing (-1.6 million).

Employment in the information industry fell by 17,000 in November. About half of the job loss occurred in its telecommunications component (-9,000).

There was little change in wholesale and retail trade employment in November. Within retail trade, department stores added 8,000 jobs over the month.

The number of jobs in transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality showed little change over the month.

Employment in professional and business services rose by 86,000 in November. Temporary help services accounted for the majority of the increase, adding 52,000 jobs. Since July, temporary help services employment has risen by 117,000.

Health care employment continued to rise in November (21,000), with notable gains in home health care services (7,000) and hospitals (7,000). The health care industry has added 613,000 jobs since the recession began in December 2007.

In November, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.2 hour to 33.2 hours. The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 40.4 hours. Factory overtime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. Since May, the manufacturing workweek has increased by 1.0 hour. (See table B-2.)

In November, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 1 cent, or 0.1 percent, to $18.74. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent, while average weekly earnings have risen by 1.6 percent. (See table B-3.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from -219,000 to -139,000, and the change for October was revised from -190,000 to -111,000.

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Miles Kendig's picture

Baghdad Bob now runs the BLS.

aint no fortunate son's picture

Gee, unbelievable numbers, just in time for the Christmas shopping rush... why, you couldn't have had better timing if you had worked the numbers intentionally!

I guess that jobs summit at the White House yesterday really worked!


Anonymous's picture

But more likely they're bolstering Bernanke given the pounding taken before the Senate.

Bear's picture

Added or saved 1,000,000 jobs. I think they found the Genie that Aladdin lost. 

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

It won't make any difference. A decrease in those numbers is BS and everyone knows it. It may get more suckers to run up the stock market, but "lower" unemployment" can't make people spend money they don't have and credit cards they can't use or don't have.


If Obama thinks I'm hiring ANYONE any time soon he can kiss my ass.

Miles Kendig's picture

Cindy.. once more you are right on time  ..  right on the money ..  Besides our national leadership is wearing out their kneepads kissing other folks asses.

Sancho Ponzi's picture

The drop in unemployment is likely due to some rehires by construction companies to complete last minute 2009 jobs. I'm seeing it all over town.

Daedal's picture

What, no seasonal adjustment? Guilty conscience + lawsuit avoidance = fewer job layoffs during holidays. We may even get an uptick in 2010. Either way, all this could mean is that there's an increase in disheartened workers no longer seeking a job, not an improvement in the labor market.

Anonymous's picture

False. U6 ticked down, which includes those demographics.

Scarecrow's picture

There will be a significant uptick from the hiring of Census workers in the early months of 2010. This should be about 1 million temporary jobs. After the census those workers will be back looking for a job again. Keep your heads up for that.

longjohnshorts's picture


WTF??!!  Oh, man, so wanted to stay bearish!


docj's picture

Gotta goose those holiday sales a little more, evidently.

docj's picture

AU/USD off the cliff, down about $17 in 2-minutes (now at $1190 and change).  Swell - I was looking for a buying opportunity, so thanks for that Barack.

Project Mayhem's picture

Anyone got a real-time quote on USDX , how did USD/YEN and USD/EURO behave

Project Mayhem's picture

Thanks.  Def looks like a currency event rather than gold event.

docj's picture

Looks like the Gold Spot is bouncing between $1186 and $1192.  Hard support for $1189 or so?  Perhaps.  Who knows.

Careless Whisper's picture

Who cares. As long as the printing presses are humming, I'm a buyer. It can't go up every day. This is a head fake.

docj's picture

Concur - in fact, it warmed my heart a bit to see that we're now down near $1170.  The lower it goes, the more I'll buy.

jerv's picture

Good point, but the site is brilliant though the java stops working at times

covertress's picture

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mr brincq's picture

where is the pitfall?

Bearish Spirits's picture

Check out the "not seasonally adjusted" number--October: 16.3%, November: 16.4%.  Interesting!

Edit: Just saw your post further down, Mayhem.

chunkylover42's picture

The market should have fun with this data.

assumptionblindness's picture

I can't wait until when the hacked BLS email data comes out.  HIDE THE DECLINE!

MsCreant's picture

Gold dropping like a brick.

ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

so when retail fires all the seasonals in january it'll be like 11-12%? 

deadhead's picture

yee of little faith in the USA gov't.


it will drop to 8.8%.

U6 will drop to 12%

Happy days are here again.

Sailors will be kissing women in Times Square.


MsCreant's picture

Goldman Sachs to lay down their guns.

Miles Kendig's picture

And supply the Broads from Broad Street for DH's sailors.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Guess yesterday afternoon was the big setup to roast the shorties in after hours.  Guess gold will be back to its vertical trajectory though...

*edit* ^^ errr, guess not...welcome to bizarro world.

mr brincq's picture

why are only the bulls allowed to call employment data a lagging indicator when employment figures are running against them.....remember the figures from early November?

IE's picture

Yeah, and when the annual birth/death adjustment adds a million additional lost jobs in Q1 nobody will talk about it.

HEHEHE's picture

We must have happy holidays people, now go to the mall and buy a bunch of sh*t you don't need with money you don't have, chop, chop!

assumptionblindness's picture

Could the October revision and the November drop-off result in a Cash For Clunkers style unemployment data hangover that will hit in Jan or Feb '10? 

Hondo's picture

Health Care and Temp services.....seasonal????

All other sectors down

Median Duration of unemployment up

Big decline in 16 to 19 year olds and people with no high school degree and with high school degree.

college educated unemployment rate up

Labor force declines marginally




Cursive's picture

Yeah, the internals look sick.  This is probably a move to continue the massive distribution job at the big prop desks.  It certainly won't help the liquidity trade if the USD strengthens and gold weakens.

Anonymous's picture

Empirical observation from within the health care industry:

The increase in payroll is anything but new job creation. There have long been licensed health care workers who have remained out of the work force for various reasons by choice. These people are returning in droves due to the down economy, hubby got laid off, can't afford truckloads of Chinese Christmas crap for the kids ... Hospitals have been running chronic labor shortages for years and are now very near full staffing. These "jobs" have existed as vacancies in HR files for years. It's just a counter cyclical decision by workers in my perspective. It actually means that new grads are having a much harder time finding work in what used to be a wide open field.

Cursive's picture

Very interesting.  Thanks for sharing your observation.

CounterParty's picture

Yesterday's Jobs Summit: Mission Accomplished!