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Unemployment Rate Ticks Up To 10.1% According To Gallup

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The hits just keep on coming for the administration's failed economic policies. While everyone is focused on tomorrow's NFP which will likely indicate a 9.9% unemployment rate, Gallup today confirmed that the unemployment rate has once again pushed into double digit territory. "employment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased
to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in
July." Conveniently for the BLS, the deterioration in labor markets occurred late in September and will likely not show up until the October report: "Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the
unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely
to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday."

Now even Gallup is warning that the government data tomorrow will likely understimate the severity of the job situation.

Friday's Unemployment Rate Report Likely to Understate

The government's final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup's modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday's ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government's national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallup's mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.

However, Gallup's monitoring of job market conditions suggests that there was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate during the last couple of weeks of September. It could be that the anticipated slowdown of the overall economy has potential employers even more cautious about hiring. Some of the increase could also be seasonal or temporary.

Further, Gallup's underemployment measure suggests that the percentage of workers employed part time but looking for full-time work is declining as the unemployment rate increases. To some degree, this may reflect a reduced company demand for new part-time employees. For example, employers may be converting some existing part-time workers to full time when they are needed as replacements, but may not in turn be hiring replacement part-time workers. Another explanation may relate to the shrinkage of the workforce, as some employees who have taken part-time work in hopes of getting full-time jobs get discouraged and drop out of the workforce completely -- going back to school to enhance their education, for example, instead of doing part-time work. It is even possible that some workers may find unemployment insurance a better alternative than part-time work with little prospect of going full time.

Regardless, the sharp increase in the unemployment rate during late September does not bode well for the economy during the fourth quarter, or for holiday sales. In this regard, it is essential that the Federal Reserve and other policymakers not be misled by Friday's jobs numbers. The jobs picture could be deteriorating more rapidly than the government's job release suggests.

h/t Geoffrey Batt

 


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Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:14 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

summer of recovery rolls on.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:30 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

so this fall will necessarily be called the Recovery from Summer then?

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:17 | Link to Comment HedgeFun
HedgeFun's picture

Giddey up

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:18 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Interesting to a point, but often comparing apples and oranges.  Jobs lost are often decently paid with benefits.  Jobs gained are usually part time at Bo Jangles or Taco Bell. 

Ask anyone who is 45 or over and looking for a job what a great economy this is.

Follow social security receipts...   Cry the Beloved Country....

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:20 | Link to Comment Everyman
Everyman's picture

Goodnight Irene!

When Gallup is calling BS on the BLS numbers, it is so in the face of the DOL.  They just HAVE to be embarassed with what is it like 26 staright revisions up over the last year?

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:26 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

The BLS don't care. To them, it's all about repeating a lie often enough to become a truth. The sheeple will fall for it.

 

O/T

Obama Shows A Spine! Will Veto Bill That Would Bail Out Banks From Foreclosure-Gate

http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-to-veto-foreclosure-gate-bill-2010-10

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 18:21 | Link to Comment Kali
Kali's picture

We create our own reality.  Deficits don't matter.  Useless eaters.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:29 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Quit bothering us BLS folks, we are over at the SEC watching and circle jerking to a great new porn site.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 14:37 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

It only makes a difference to people who are paying attention. Joe Sixpack still thinks that the biggest problem facing America is terrorists hiding in caves, gays getting married, and communists in the State Department...or whatever Fox News is trying to scare them with at the moment.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:21 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

This is beyond funny, beyond sad. Come in at 9.9%. Come in at 9.9? More like brought in at 9.9.

In the land of everything for 9.99, at least this joke should be obvious.

Shadowstats is where it's at. Not that they materially matter anymore either. 

I'm feeling rather...escahto-logical! ;-)

 

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:28 | Link to Comment Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

The only context in which the totality of Obama's actions make any sense is if his measuring post is allowing the statute of limitations to expire on the bank crimes without any material prosecutions.  Health care an intentional diversion.  The financial 'reform" bill a worthless instrument.  Broke his own party.  The government goes into grdlock for at least two years and who are the ONLY people that benefit?  The guys under the statute of limitations clock as it goes tick, tick, tick in the background. 

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:29 | Link to Comment Jim Billy Bob J...
Jim Billy Bob James IV's picture

And yet Biden will be on trail stating The Obama has saved 3 million or billion jobs in the last year.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:08 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Coulda been Sarah Palin.  Things could be worse...

I reckon that's good for a junking.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:31 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

You worked one day last month unloading a truck at the food bank?

Yes.

Okay that means you're not unemployed.

All your unemployment benefits have expired?

Yes.

Sorry, but that means you're not unemployed.

You work one day a week as a Wal-Mart greeter?

Yes.

That means you're not unemployed.

You were an area manager for an insurance company and now work as a stock boy for Safeway?

Yes.

That means you're not unemployed.

Wow! That means our unemployment rate remains fairly low! Next!

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:41 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

We are done with hope and honour

We are lost to love and truth

We are dropping down the ladder, rung by rung

And the measure of our torment

Is the measure of our youth

God help us, for the knew the worst too soon

                               Kipling

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:46 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Rut Roh.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 13:59 | Link to Comment Gonzalo Lira
Gonzalo Lira's picture

The Bureau of Lies & Statistics? Not telling the truth? Why, sir! You either joking, or indulging in the grossest calumny imaginable! 

 

The hard-working members of the BLS would only tell the truth! They work for the government! It's their duty to tell the truth!

 

Shame on you for doubting their word!

 

(BTW, I own a bridge, out in Brooklyn, that I need to sell—a potential bargain for some clever fellow . . .)

 

GL

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 15:02 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

For what it is worth, September is a 'bad' month for the Birth/Death model. See the NON-seasonal jobs added for part 2 of the model (read the explanation of part 1 as well, since those numbers are never published) here: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm. Notice that the September contribution is lower than the months before and after. Since these are non-seasonal, you can't simply add or subtract to the headline seasonal. But it increases the odds that the NFP number will disappoint. 

BTW, notice how the 2010 numbers are larger than the 2009 numbers? Even after the model was thoroughly debunked in 2008/2009?

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 14:03 | Link to Comment Gonzalo Lira
Gonzalo Lira's picture

Sorry, accidental repeat. GL

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 14:03 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

There are so many turds in the "recovery" punch bowl, that there isn't any room left for the punch.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Kryten451
Kryten451's picture

Succinctly stated Buckaroo !

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Incubus
Incubus's picture

Recession is OVER, drinks're on me!

 

 

 

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Gimp
Gimp's picture

The politicians will NEVER  let the unemployment rate go above 10%. Publicly that is, the spinmasters are working there magic as we type.

Note the usual afternoon market pump up...pathetic

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 15:11 | Link to Comment George Costanza
George Costanza's picture

rising unemployment is a lagging indicator, to be ignored as already priced in.   Falling unemployment, now that will be a leading indicator and not priced in.   <sarcasm off>

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 15:59 | Link to Comment bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

BLS, Wadell & Reed, Dow 10,000, POMO, Health Care Reform.

Somebody tell us what can be believed.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:25 | Link to Comment jtmo3
jtmo3's picture
Come on. You don't really believe the bureau of lying shits is going to actually put out a 9.9 number tomorrow, do you?
Thu, 10/07/2010 - 19:54 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Saved or created?

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rocky89's picture

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