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University Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Plunges To One Year Low Of 66.5, Versus Expectation Of 74.5, Previous 76

Tyler Durden's picture


The UMichigan consumer confidence index dropped from from 76, the best number since January 2008, to 66.5, the lowest since August 2009, on expectation of 74.5. The expectations component came in at 60.6 versus expectations of 68.5, the lowest since March 2009, while the conditions index showed a reading of 75.5 versus expectations of 84.0, lowest since November 2009. The 1 Year inflation expectation rose modestly from 2.8 to 2.9. Altogether another economic data disaster. 


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Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:03 | 473236 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Houston, we have a problem.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:04 | 473240 Traianus Augustus
Traianus Augustus's picture

Do not worry, the algo's will have this market melting up into the close today.  Just like every other day.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:09 | 473249 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I dunno.

The February "strong hands" people may be getting a wee bit nervous.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:23 | 473285 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

You mean, Ann Arbor, we have a problem. They must have polled the wrong area code in MI this time.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:11 | 473237 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Altogether another economic data disaster. 

Now their number is bearish it all-of-the-sudden has credibility?

At least the unions are feeling flush:

WASHINGTON—Billy Raye, a 51-year-old unemployed bike courier, is looking for work.


Fortunately for him, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Council of Carpenters is seeking paid demonstrators to march and chant in its current picket line outside the McPherson Building, an office complex here where the council says work is being done with nonunion labor.


"For a lot of our members, it's really difficult to have them come out, either because of parking or something else," explains Vincente Garcia, a union representative who is supervising the picketing.

In California, one group is offering to pay $10 and up per hour to activists to hold signs in demonstrations against foam cups and plastic bags.


"Low Pay! Go away!" and "That Rat Gotta Go!" the union stand-ins chanted as other workers banged cow-bells and beat on a trio of empty plastic buckets. The union's Mr. Garcia sees no conflict in a union that insists on union labor hiring nonunion people to protest the hiring of nonunion labor.


He says the pickets are not only about "union issues" but also about fair wages and benefits for American workers. By hiring the unemployed, "we are also giving back to the community a bit," he says.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:11 | 473255 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

No, it has credibility because it's actually realistic now.  I don't determine credibility based on reputation, but on reality.  Any fool could see that consumers are not confident.  What was incredible was the previous attempt to pretend this wasn't so.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:17 | 473272 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

No, it has credibility because it's actually realistic now.

Goal (seek), bitches!!!!!!!!

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 13:24 | 473806 Joe Shmoe
Joe Shmoe's picture

Now their number is bearish it all-of-the-sudden has credibility?

Yeah, thank you.  Everyone was slamming this study the last time around because it was bullish.  

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 13:34 | 473838 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Credible, not credible...bullish bearish'...hell all it tells me is they cant even pad the BS anymore!

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:47 | 473333 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Agreed.  Without meaning any disrespect to our host, it hardly seems fair to attempt to discredit the number last month, only to turn around and use it as a credible starting point to illustrate how bad the decline was this month.


Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:04 | 473239 FranzVanDongen
FranzVanDongen's picture

But did the BDI decline today?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:04 | 473241 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

sadly no....but just for today.....

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:22 | 473281 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

BDI (0.527%)

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:05 | 473243 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

Just how BAD is this data???

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:07 | 473244 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

Perhaps it's time for U of M to increase the sample size of 500 to reflect a population of 309 million.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:14 | 473262 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

That might work. They should include some financial media people in the sample to "round it out"

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:07 | 473245 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

If we close green today i am renouncing my US citizenship.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:11 | 473253 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture


Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:11 | 473254 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I'd go ahead and get your passport out, in that case.

You'll have to go a consulate and formally do it in person.  I'll already be there.  So, you'll have to take a number.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:15 | 473268 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Is there still a living in making and repairing boilers?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:00 | 473403 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I suppose so.  It's more homage towards my alma mater...but, I would think actual boilermakers make decent coin.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:38 | 473492 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Purdue.  That's pretty good for you. It wasn't like I had any interest.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:57 | 473540 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

That's good news because it makes two of us now.  Ignoring you takes just a sliver of annoyance out my day now.  Thanks!

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:14 | 473264 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Just as long as you continue to haunt ZH that might not be a bad idea. :>)

And I think the US government has renounced its citizens already.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:18 | 473269 Muir
Muir's picture


I was long this morning, I think you can remain a citizen.

Today may mark the end of the weakest counter rally I've seen since 08.


Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:23 | 473284 nmewn
nmewn's picture

BAC down over 6%...severe whackage on "better than expected" volume.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:33 | 473296 GIANTKILR
GIANTKILR's picture

Please people! You have no faith in the PPT!!!

Everything is a gamble now, we should start placing wagers on green or red. This might be the only good way to make money now.


Your avatar is mesmerizing!!!!!

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:40 | 473330 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Red...S&P 1075 after a peek at 1068.

Seeing as how we're just speculating ;-)

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:47 | 473349 Muir
Muir's picture

Nic was reading the same tea leaves as I.

His post is really, really good.

Interesting times we live in.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:02 | 473413 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Yeah I read that, he's knows his stuff.

I pulled up a thirty day chart and threw a dart for 1075...someone alse alluded to it in a rating call on commentary elsewhere...seems reasonable.

Trust in our systems seems to be collapsing (putting it mildly...LOL) but at some point after the revulsion of stocks is complete I would think they would be a good buy again...just not now.

Good one from Hussman if you haven't seen it, don't know if it has appeared here on ZH. He's another one I give great weight;

It's hot here in Fla. I'm gonna go hang a ceiling fan...LOL.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 13:26 | 473814 Muir
Muir's picture

Thanks for the link.

Read the Hussman comment.

Very good.

Storms in Coral Gables Fl.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 16:05 | 474327 nmewn
nmewn's picture


Just clouds here...I'm north of you...opposite side.

Ceiling fan is workin great...I implemented austerity on myself...LOL...I took one down off the front porch, put a light in it's place and put it up back here on the patio.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:50 | 473528 Blano
Blano's picture

Bouncing boobs are the greatest.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 15:08 | 474154 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

do get a pair yourself.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:39 | 473325 Stink_Pickle
Stink_Pickle's picture

I don't think it's worth the $450.  Wait till the fiat is completely worthless.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 15:08 | 474151 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

last week it was free, but as of Tuesday past, it'll cost you $450.00 to cut your ties. . .

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:09 | 473246 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

If it had been 66.6 I'd have been worried.



Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:11 | 473252 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It appears the "reality" and "fantasy" curves are beginning to converge, meaning "fantasy" is returning to earth.

"Ground control to Major Tom".

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:40 | 473327 subqtaneous
subqtaneous's picture

"Ground control to Major Tom"


My mother said, to get things done you better not mess with . . . 

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:12 | 473259 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Chart for context?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:13 | 473260 perma bear
perma bear's picture

come on .. we need to have some benchmark here ..the last time the figure came out really strong the whole gauge was considered nonsensical ... why pay attention to it now ?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:16 | 473261 jesusonline
jesusonline's picture

Earnings is a rear-view mirror indicator in this environment. A lot of data coming out recently shows what's ahead. And it looks like they will just barely make it past Novermber to launch new QE.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:14 | 473263 demsco
demsco's picture

But, but, but the global recovery?? How could this be, Obama told me this was the recovery summer. Leo said that things were good, things weren't as bad as the data looked. The ISM was still over 50. This makes no sense. How could the people not believe in the recovery when they are being spoon fed the "facts" by the President? Oh, wait, the people don't have jobs, never mind...

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:22 | 473282 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Definitely Obama's "Mission Accomplished" moment. And who picked the phrase "Recovery Summer"? That is the corniest lie ever told.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:14 | 473265 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

They must have misssed the memo from the telepromter, now they must bend over and be spanked with said telepromter.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:16 | 473271 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

I guess people don't have any money and they are telling the polsters that they won't be spending.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:17 | 473274 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

NEVER underestimate the replacement power of equities within an inflationary (QE II) spiral!

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:23 | 473283 Truth
Truth's picture

This is one piece of many to set up for QE 2.0  in the 'let's sell to the public how shitty the economy is so we can re-inflate'. Got GOLD!?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:31 | 473294 HEHEHE
HEHEHE's picture

It's part of it, QEII is going to happen, but they'll let the stock market tank one more time before QEII.  Stock market collapse will always be a pre-cursor.  It scares all the baby boomers looking at retirement.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:06 | 473424 Truth
Truth's picture

yeah, I know but with all those baby boomers wouldn't it make more sense to increase their purchasing power via deflation.  Thus making them happy and therefore voting for those politicians in place.  After all, I don't think there are many retirees and upcoming retirees with more than $50K in their 401k so more the dependency on social security and medicare.  .....perhaps I'm making too much sense (from an austrian perspective)....

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 13:38 | 473850 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whats this 'retirement' you speak of? Parking the van down by the river?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:29 | 473290 Dingleberry Jones
Dingleberry Jones's picture

Ann Arbor is a whore!

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:33 | 473301 Running on Empty
Running on Empty's picture

I'd do her.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:38 | 473319 subqtaneous
subqtaneous's picture

You've obviously never met the quintessential Ann Arbor woman.


Bring a razor.


Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:07 | 473425 Truth
Truth's picture

I do her and then throw her in a gutter in Harlem, NY around 3 am or so.  ; )

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 13:50 | 473911 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Which is probably where you found her at 2 in the morning ... stop trolling in Harlem, will ya? Be a gent and take her back to the UWS so she can sleep it off.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:34 | 473308 snowball777
snowball777's picture

And you're a cheap trick.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:29 | 473291 chindit13
chindit13's picture

You can hear the drum beats getting louder.

As a non-resident citizen who makes one or two trips to the US per year, I get to see to see changes in attitudes and the general "wa" each trip.  As I wrap up this visit, the impression I take back is that the society is ready to explode.  I do not remember ever feeling this before.

In conversations around the country with a range of folks---though a majority Obama voters---I am astonished by the scorn many toss his way.  Typical comments were, "I can't even look at that bastard anymore", or "when he comes on TV I have to mute it" (and I thought that was just for CNBC or Top Chef when they have commercials for some show about some city's "housewives").

It seems sheeple have been evolving into people, and thus are not as easily fooled as they once were.  Trust in authority is gone.  Respect for authority is gone.  Respect for law is going going...because it is abundantly clear that laws do not apply to everyone.

I watched Zbigniew Brzezinski today on TV justifying the Terrorist-for-Oil Contract of BP, implying that morality is situational and can be suspended if money or national interests are involved.  Thus, according to him, government officials and corporations can be selective in their application of moral principles.

Well, if the unelected and corporations can be selective, can we be far from the time when individuals decide they hold that same right, and decide the judicious use of violence against the greedy, the corrupt and co-opted elected officials is "morally justified"?

I think we are close to a kind of revolt, perhaps even in the form of killings and assassinations.  I once thought the masses would take out their anger on each other.  I suspect the ruling elite thought the same thing.  My view has changed.  Now I think there are enough people who know who the enemy really is and they will take vengeance not on their innocent neighbors, but on the guilty who feel above both the law and the masses.

In the interest of abiding by this site's rules, I am not advocating anything.  I am merely stating an opinion.  That opinion is that we are near the abyss---or perhaps another way to state it is that the masses are about to try to climb out of the abyss into which government and Wall Street have thrown them.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:34 | 473309 bbbilly1326
bbbilly1326's picture

great perspective Chindit13, thanks.

I lived in Europe for several years in the 90s-02, and can vouche for the fact that changes on returning can be yours is a valuable perspective.

Maybe the consumer sentiment today backs that  up as well......

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:47 | 473347 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Important thoughts. The real question is what level or coordination exists.  It is easy to redirect the anger of unorganized masses towards one another.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 15:24 | 474207 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

I've made the point before, but bears repeating. . . when people get tipping-point-angry, it would be foolish to think they'll travel long distances to vent that anger. . .time has shown anger gets displaced locally. . .

pissed off about the economic situation? drive over to your wife's place of employment and go "postal". . . shoot up your house, then take it to the neighbours. . . seriously, the ratio of "domestic" or "localised" rages far outweighs anything done to the real culprits. . .

people riot in their own neighbourhoods because that's where they're angry.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 18:52 | 474632 Kali
Kali's picture

Yup.  And it's already happening.  DV, "postal" incidents, etc are all up in last two years.  Petty crime, along with robbery (armed or not) are up too.  This is starting to remind me of the 70's

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:47 | 473348 Chumly
Chumly's picture

Zbigniew Brzezinski is a slut-whore for the Pimp.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:52 | 473366 Muir
Muir's picture

"though a majority Obama voters---I am astonished by the scorn many toss his way.  Typical comments were, 'I can't even look at that bastard anymore", or "when he comes on TV I have to mute it'"


Yeap, that's true.

As to the assassination thingy, well smoke a dubbie and you'll feel better.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:09 | 473427 Truth
Truth's picture

time to buy those guns.  remember to purchase from a pawn shop in some shit-ass-dirty neighborhood........

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 16:46 | 474423 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

The "Sheeple" are going to give November a try first.

Then we'll see if our community organizer can avoid impeachment...

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:31 | 473292 bbbilly1326
bbbilly1326's picture

FWIW, I called the WH and left a comment.  You get to speak to a real person:

202-456-1414 or 1111.


the wait was only  a minute or so.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:46 | 473344 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

bbb, if I left a comment would I go on some list?

phone ringing..

phone caller says look at the elevator, they are here for you .

call the whitehouse, yah that's the ticket.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:31 | 473293 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

LOL daniel gross fresh off his booming recovery newsweek cover of a few months ago on tv giving advice

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:32 | 473300 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Simon Hobbs and Michael Pento just went toe to toe on CNBC. Hobbs lost, but not before claiming Pento was peddling nightmares.


Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:46 | 473345 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

Glad you saw that.


Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:55 | 473383 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Anyone remember Simon Hobbs on Fast Money last year ridiculing the U.S. CNBC anchors for cheerleading and pumping. They then proceeded to take him into the MKULTRA brainwashing room..offer him some cash and he came out shooting green waving pom poms. Here is the link:

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:56 | 473384 suteibu
suteibu's picture

I think Haynes knows he's on the way out and he's getting in his last shots.  He has turned decidedly pro-O.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:33 | 473303 MarkD
MarkD's picture

The oil leak is capped. Confidence will rise. Jim Cramer told me so.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:19 | 473450 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture


I wouldn't trust Cramer's directions to the bathroom let alone his pronouncements on anything economic. The man has serious psychological problems, including being manic/depressive.

While that medical condition doesn't necessarily make him a poor judge of market conditions and direction, I'm afraid he might revise his directions after I've walked into the ladies room and unzip my fly to free the mini hose monster.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:39 | 473311 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

One of our soldiers(Officer Pento "Global Delta Force" Advisors) is locked in a battle against "fat"Haines and that british guy over on CNBC.

Damn,that kid is resilient.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:50 | 473362 megatoxic
megatoxic's picture

Obama:  "Ok--who's butt do I need to kick to get this fixed?"

"What's that?  Every single US consumer?"

"Ben's already on that for me.  I'll be on the golf course if anyone needs me."

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:20 | 473456 London Dude Trader
London Dude Trader's picture

To me this dismal number was a given, considering the discrepancy with reality confirmed by the latest Conference Board consumer data. 

Those UoM clowns must have realized that their 200-person survey sample consisting entirely of mortgage-defaulting deadbeats queuing up outside the local Apple store do not represent a statistically meaningful segment of the US population. 

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:46 | 473512 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

The media and the goverment over the past decade have made the public dis trust everything they say. Remember Sarbanes Oxley how that was going to stop all the funny accounting that resulted in Enron Worldcom. It's just been one lie after another. Then Obama comes along with the Hope serum. Well once again lies and more lies. Honest leaders are in short supply.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:48 | 473517 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

If they don't extend unemployment this economy will roll over and play dead.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 12:13 | 473598 subqtaneous
subqtaneous's picture

True, that . . . and belay any discussion of the aforementioned insurrection if otherwise.


Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:48 | 473520 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

If they don't extend unemployment this economy will roll over and play dead.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 13:00 | 473738 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

What is with all the Brits on Cnbc, I rarely tune in but its unbearable with them.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 13:03 | 473748 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Just trying to 'spice it up a bit'.  They'll move to Australians next when then novelty of a British accent wears off.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 13:40 | 473862 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

MI-5 agents.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 13:55 | 473927 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

There really is no British equivalent to CNBC and Bloomberg, so that is where they end up.  What is truly annoying in London is only getting Bloomberg in many of the hotels ... at least CNBC has some entertainment value, including the Tonight Show after hours.


Fri, 07/16/2010 - 13:57 | 473939 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture


The DOW/SP00 leg down has started.

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