Update On Hurricane Earl As It Barrels On New York (And DTCC's Oh So Sensitive Fiber Optic Network)
The market may go up or down after tomorrow's NFP, but one thing is certain: the Hamptons labor day weekend is ruined for all those who day trade the S&P (with a $150BN+ VaR).
From Jeff Masters' blog at Wunderground:
As of 11PM EDT,
Earl is a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 140 mph and faster
gusts. From the advisory, Earl is located at 27.8 N, 73.8 W, 520 miles
south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently
moving north-northwest at 18 mph. Data from hurricane hunter flights
show that Earl's pressure has fallen, the minimum central pressure is
now 932 mb. Looking at Figure 1, an estimate of rainfall rates (think
radar in space), we see a complete eyewall, with an especiallly vigorous
thunderstorm cluster in the northwest quadrant. These
Fig. 1 Estimated rainfall-rate of Earl taken at 9PM EDT 1 September 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab
is still a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the
storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 230 miles away.
12 foot seas extend at least 210 nmi from the center in all directions
and may reach out to 450 nmi in the northeast quadrant of the storm. The
most recent estimate (930PM EDT) of Earl's integrated kinetic energy is 91 TJ, with a wind impact of 3.1 out of 6 and a storm surge impact of 4.7 out of 6. Like Dr. Masters said earlier today, if the right front quadrant of Earl stays out to sea, the storm surge may not be as significant as this rating indicates.
NHC has not really altered their track forecast
for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue
turning toward the north as it moves around the subtropical high. When
the trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate
quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will
determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. If the trough comes out
quickly, Earl will stay at sea. If the trough is late in arriving, it
could move Earl across the East Coast.
That said, the current
forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, but with
Earl's center passing near the Outer Banks late Thursday night, then
passing the Delmarva peninsula Friday morning before flying past Cape
Cod Friday night and crossing over Canada's Nova Scotia Saturday. There
is also a small possibility (less than 10%) that Earl could pass
directly over the Outer Banks and/or the Delmarva peninsula. However,
with a storm of Earl's size, the center does not have to pass overhead
to cause damage. Please keep this in mind when considering your
Earl's size and
track will produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East
Coast this weekend, and there is a 28% chance of hurricane-force winds
along the Outer Banks. NHC puts out a very useful wind probability
forecast. The highlights are that Cape Hatteras, NC has a 28% chance of
hurricane-force winds and a 91% chance of tropical-storm (TS) force
winds. A wide swath of 30+% probabilities covers the East Coast from
Virginia to New England. Cities with a greater than 40% chance of TS
winds include Norfolk, Ocean City, Providence, Boston, and Nantucket.
Halifax, Nova Scotia in Canada has a 62% chance of TS force winds.
is expected to maintain its current intensity until it meets the trough
and starts moving northeastwards. The shear from the trough will start
weakening it. It will likely go by Cape Cod as a fast-moving category 2
hurricane. When it goes over Nova Scotia, it will likely still be a
Current Watches and Warnings
warnings are valid for the coast from Bogue Inlet, NC to the NC/VA
border. Hurricane watches in effect from the NC/VA border to Cape
Henlopen, DE and from Woods Hole, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA. Tropical
storm warnings and watches cover much of the coast in between the NC/VA
border and Woods Hole, MA. For the latest information on watches and
warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.
primary threats from Earl are going to be storm surge, surf, and wind.
Since Earl is forecast to gain speed after meeting the trough, flooding
from rain should not be a large problem. From a broad perspective, storm
surges are expected to be 3-5 feet above the tidal level, with large
breaking waves at the coast. Beach erosion along the Delmarva peninsula
and Outer Banks (8-10 foot breaking waves) could be significant. For
more localized info, check out NWS's Hurricane Local Statements or our severe weather page.
What to do
People living in areas covered by the watches and warnings should be working through their hurricane preparation plans now.
You have less than 24 hours to complete your preparations if you are in
the Outer Banks and less than 48 hours in New England. Be sure to
listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies
and the local NWS.
All watches and warnings for
Fiona were discontinued by the 5:00 PM EDT forecast. Fiona is forecast
to curve northward without affecting land and dissipate in 4 days.
Earl moves past Nova Scotia, this is the storm to watch in the tropical
Atlantic. While it is far out at sea (more than 6 days to affect land),
some computer models
suggest Gaston could affect the Bahamas or the Caribbean. Statistical
intensity forecast models (LGEM and SHIPS) rapidly intensify Gaston, but
the dynamical models (HWRF, GFDL) do not. This storm will be worth
watching over the next week or so.
The skies around Earl are going to be very busy Thursday according to the Tropical Cyclone Plan of the Day. There will be 3 flights from the Hurricane Hunters. NCAR and NOAA's Gulfstream's will be flying around Earl. HRD's WP-3D's will be flying research missions every 12 hours. NASA is sending several aircchraft as part of their Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) mission. Their Global Hawk UAV will be flying for at least 24 hours. NASA's DC-8 has a six-hour mission scheduled. Finally, a WB-57
(one of the planes I supported during 2001's CRYSTAL-FACE) will also be
flying high above Earl with microwave remote sensing gear. NASA has a
nice list of the airborne instruments.
Fig. 2 Photo of Earl's eyewall taken from NASA's DC-8 Image Credit: NASA/Jane Peterson. (Full size image)
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