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Update On Obama-Boehner's Debt Ceiling Non-Deal "Deal"
The speculative headlines on the debt ceiling status are now coming in fast and furious. The latest is from Reuters according to which President Barack Obama and U.S. House Speaker John Boehner are discussing a possible deal that would include $3 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years to avert an unprecedented U.S. default, a senior Democratic congressional aide said on Thursday. Their potential agreement would include a promise of tax reform in 2012, the aide said. In other words, this is not a deal at all, but merely promises of cuts at some point in the future, coupled with tax reform...in 2012.
Just as we predicted: $2.5 trillion debt ceiling raise, no real spending cuts, and no real tax hikes. But the soap opera sure was fun.
Done and Done.
Oh, and if S&P carries through on its promise and actually does downgrade the US to AA because of this farce of a "deal" well the, as UBS prepped earlier, it is really a non-event.
Now... what is the next catalyst to push the market higher?
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Downgrade of US paper to follow.
Do these guys really know what they're doing or do they actually want a default?
It sure appears that they are completely clueless as to where they are going with this.
No "real" change is possible without default.
Then you pretty much are doomed to martial law/COG (Continuity Of Government).
The moment the federal money ends, the rioting will be epic.
If they really knew what they were doing, they would allow the default. Better now than strung out over a couple more years and a couple more trillion Benbux.
I don't think you get it.
A default at this point is a material assassination of 20-40% of the US population, and that doesn't go down without civil war.
If you truly believed this and have any degree of tangible wealth, be well-armed, well-trained, start scoping out targets, and shoot first.
Default is unavoidable, darkstar. Question is when and whether it's true default or defacto via hyperinflating the debt away.
As to preparedness, I'm likely in the 3-sigma range of the the curve, with as much metal as a channel-stuffed GM dealership these days.
I have all of the above mentioned...no need to shoot first or scope out targets though. Sound like you are trying to incite something there buddy. No need to do much but DEFEND one's self and wait it out until the new order forms...you sound like Paulson if you don't give my banksters friends some money there will be violence in the streets and martial law in days. Scare tactics and fear mongering always works for gubmint hacks and their corp buddies, some of us know better and are well prepped DEFENSIVELY for a "catastrophe".
You Bet, they know what they are doing....future slaverades.
These specimens, (your leaders), are much smarter than anyone here thinks.
They all answer to the same master. And he is not nice.
They already have that. If they were to balance the budget, they'd literally have loads of human cattle (60-120 million of them) to sell to people before they not only off each other, but much of the rest of the country's population as well.
Excerpt from: A Weekly Standard article...
OK. Let's say a deal passes. Then what??? Just like Greece 6months or a year later the problem comes back much much bigger and uglier. People have the attention span and critical thinking skills of 3 year olds.
You're assuming of course that the problem is "fixable" without a huge reset and a great deal of suck.
They're clueless because, in all likelihood, they know we're totally freaking doomed and they're just trying to figure out how to pin it on "the other guy(s)".
That said, they'll probably kick the can again with modest success - until 6-months (or less) from now and we're back at this because of "unexpected" further problems in the economy or "unprecidented" problems in Europe or whatever. The event horizon for each of these crises is getting cut roughly in half with each iteration. Pretty soon they'll simply run out of time.
Hi docj. Good post.
I'm going with "(or less)."
1-3 months.
Downgrade the Republicans to bb- and the Democrats to junk
OT or not; Danger Will Robinson danger, danger. But I guess we already knew this.
I use cross-blogging like I'm doing now to thwart their efforts.
Israel Hires Internet Soldiers to Penetrate American Forums, Chatrooms"File under "cat out of the bag." "Israel hires Internet soldiers," Israeli students and demobilized soldiers get paid to pretend they are just regular folks and leave pro-Israel comments online. Israeli Foreign Ministry Deputy Elan Shturman is quoted from the Israeli Occupation Magazine saying:
Quote:
Counterpunch's Jonathan Cooke in "Israel's Internet Wars" describes:
Quote:
C'mon, Green Hair. Who doesn't infiltrate the web with propaganda? Now that would be news.
Looks like 3 of them already junked you :)
Do you think they'll get prom queen with all that extra love and fine opinion?
+1
Not surprising, but nice to have it confirmed. Pro-Israel sites like the ADL have been publishing standard format ways to twist anti-Israel comments into anti-semetic rants for years. I would suggest the budget is far bigger than $150,000 when you include the editors, journalists, and columnists of major newspapers who have been on the payroll for years. Where did Murdoch get his billions to fund purchases of his media empire in the first place?
people generally blame whoever is in power if things go badly economically. The GOP is probably betting the people will blame the Democrats as they have their president in power and the Dems are betting the people will blame Congress. Or they're retarded, both seem plausible and so do many other crazy scenarios.
Claiming the Republicans are superior in economics is like claiming the Democrats are superior in social justice.
How does that saying go? A turd by any other name(R or D) is just as shitty. No offense to Mr. Turd Ferguson either.
You can't polish a turd.
You can't pick up a turd by the clean end.
Its like 7th grade where half of us took off our shirts to make another team. But they're both superior in corruption
It's not true until the BlowHole says it's true.
Oops...now this story has been retracted.
What were you saying about the BlowHole there, brother Cog?
You're a slippery one, Mr. Grinch.
The downgrade is going to happen in either event.
You get a "deal", and you keep the checks going for a little bit longer, but, at the end of the day, most intelligent life forms are beginning to realize that you're never paying this off. You've already got at least one minor rating agency downgrading.
You don't get a "deal", and you default, but only after you gain additional costs which make the costs of maintaining the debt, maintaining the military, and keeping the peace at home all-but-certainly greater than tax revenues. The default isn't as immediate as some think, but it comes quickly.
Could someone suggest the next steps for all. Is that mean QE3 and inflation coming in fast and furious? Time to stock up on supplies ?
It still depends on the size of QE3 and it's not yet clear at what level the next ceiling will be put if any.
Normally the next QE3 should be arround 4 trillion. Then we're talking about a 20% inflation in 1 to max. 2 years. That's bad. That's real bad.
But in order to have such a QE, the debt ceiling needs to go up 6 trillion! Because of the future loans they took like from the pensions and also budgets for other departements and this and next years deficit.
So about 45% debt increase...
They'll have a hard time selling that to the public.
Even without a QE3, the debt will go up 2 trillion by the end of next year.
Hi Parth.
I don't want to stress you out, but you're coming a bit late to the party. Nevertheless, you're here now.
Make haste. Not much time left to get things while they're still cheap, legal, and readily available.
IMO, keep an emergency supply of FRNs and get rid of the rest of 'em as fast as you can on PMs, food, water, self-defense, and preps.
Make a priority list. See survivalblog.com.
Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
$3 trillion in 'cuts' while their only path forward is nothing but printing more debt. In other words, bend over pensioners, consumers, anyone not in the top .01%.
And S&P and Moodys up to the microphone next.
Yep...if this is the best that they can do, expect the downgrade shortly. Of course, this is why the criminal syndicate has been messaging the expectations of what will happen when that downgrade comes.
Now, not only is it time for McConnell to step down, so too is it time for Speaker Boehner to hang it up. Both have proven themselves an impediment to progress on the most pressing issue of this nation.
Bring on the downgrade...and explain it to everyone in DC [since everyone in the heartland already understands this].
**and look...the US dollar has already weighed in**
And if this is the best they can do and the rating agencies vacillate/prevaricate and fail to follow through with their veiled threats to downgrade no one in their right mind should have dollar one in any of these corrupt and opaque markets. Not that they should anyway after the past three years' egregious display of rigging and HFT gamesmanship.
You're smart enough to type such comments, the Ignorati -- not so much! :>(
Spineless bitchez!!! Cut the rating a few notches for GP and stupidity.
Boner: there is no deal, but we will cave to protect our rating
But they have a new cologne named after him.
who knew you could bottle the scent of boner
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy4QEJbiEeY&NR=1
I think I said it here that I felt there would be no deal, only a capitulation by one side or the other at the cliff.
The problem is that there are many people in this country who would openly go to a welfare office and start picking off recipients with a revolver if they could.
Picking off the public employees wouldn't do any good either!
This is like watching some white bread newbie trying to buy drugs from shady totally
untrustworthy Columbians with guns.
+ 1 lulz
Attaboy Johnny.
You negotiated the crap out of those White House boys...is it too early to re-elect you?
The cental planners solved two of the world's biggest problems today by hitting the >print more< and >borrow more< buttons.
That was easy!.....what else do ya want me to fix?
(2.5 trillion / 14.4 trillion) * 100 = 36%
R U FUCKING KIDDING ME???
Obama needs to be impeached (at a minimum) if he signs this deal. This is no longer "rubbing up against" the taxpayer....this is outright sodomy!!!
As I said before, please notify your representatives and the US Treasury that YOU will NOT accept this debt nor the responsibility for paying it back. THEN STOP PAYING YOUR TAXES!!
I officially welcome you to the US.
Just a little recent history to put your sodomy into perspective: The debt ceiling was raised 4 times between 2000 and 2008. This same group of GOP man-whores were raising the limit whenever their corporate masters yanked the leash.
For those that were around and paying attention, debt limit sodomy isn't a revelation meriting a caps lock. It's a hot dog being tossed down a hallway.
well I'll bet my last nickel I've spent more time in this hell hole, and paid more taxes than most here. But thanks for the reminder.
You have two choices. Either feed the monster, or not. NEXT!
Have you really stopped paying your taxes? Just curious. Anyone I know that has done so, has had the IRS on them within 2 yrs. Anyone I know that has tried to stop paying their mortgages, the bank was sending them to foreclosure within 2 weeks of notice of default. (These folks were NOT underwater, they still had equity in the property). I hear a lot of people say to stop paying taxes and mortgages etc, but how are they getting away with it unless they are already less than destitute? Anyone I know that had assets of any kind, the hammer came down immediately. The only ones I know who got away with not paying debt, taxes, are the ones who don't have a pot to piss in anyway or the very wealthy.
The debt ceiling was raised 4 times between 2000 and 2008. This same group of GOP man-whores were raising the limit whenever their corporate masters yanked the leash.
True. But should I also cue-up Senator Teleprompter (D-IL) from 2006 at this point?
Point being, that politicians are craven liars and hyporcrites is nothing new.
I always have trouble with the captcha math so take this with a grain o salt, but it looks like 17.36% to me...
Doesn't that feel better???
"We'd gladly cut on a Tuesday in 2022 for $2,500,000,000,000 more borrowing today."
Wimpy. How appropriate. +100.
Is that mad fiat beef?
Just askin'
That reminds me, if Bernanke could print iPads, then no one would care about the printing press. They would love it like their own child.
You will love the printing press. Wealth comes from the cartridge of toner. Love the paper. Let it wrap you in its warmth.
Rufus says "We love our bank."
"Ally. Do you love your bank?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zMQI9iO_IE
Beautiful.
Default is the only path to salvation...
Then so is a US population around 200,000,000.
The streets run red before that occurs.
Boehner on Rush just now:
NO Deal!
that means there is a deal.
$300 billion . . . a year . . . over 10 years. For an annual deficit of $1.4 trillion that's growing.
I am speechless. The stupidity is . . . I have no words.
Shhhh, logic is not allowed in Pretendville.
pods
Usually, the first cuts don't come into play until the current congress is vacated for the new congress.
Less stupdity more bald face lies the fruit of ever bold corruption
I wonder what excuse S&P, Moody's and Fitch will have when this thing passes and they decide not to downgrade the US?
S&P is supposed to release a statement shortly.
http://www.businessinsider.com/sp-officials-to-brief-house-gop-freshmen-...
S&P Officials To Brief House GOP Freshmen On Consequences Of Default
Let's scare the congressman like little kittens so they vote for the debt ceiling to be raised.
"Now... what is the next catalyst to push the market higher?"
Red Bull Discontinues Production of Cola and Energy Shot
http://www.bevnet.com/news/2011/red-bull-discontinues-production-of-cola...
So rainbows and unicorns it is.
A non material reduction to the Yank deficit, and no new taxes. Everyone wins.
And The Euro's are TARPING and QEing.
Fucking brilliant.
I am soooooo looking forward to WWIII.
Check out the eurasian movement... they are recruiting for an all-out (as in extermination) war against the West, winner-takes-all of whatever is left.
Oceania has ALWAYS been at war with EastAsia...
us gov not good running auto companies either, losing $1.3B in TARP on chrysler
"done and done."
Inflationwide is on your side.
What a crock of shit!
Now that the USD is weaker versus EUR the Greek deal can fall appart to even out things...
Dupe
Is there really any need for a "brick and mortar" government any longer? All decisions can be hashed out on social media sites; B&M government seems like an unnecessary middleman just waiting to be cut out in the name of efficiency. After all these guys are paid to more or less irresponsibly spend other peoples money.
im hearing no deal....
the bait is being set!! No deal my asz! There just not ready timing wise to announce it.
More shenanigans!
A good precipitous drop of the stock market (May flash crash during Audit the Fed) should do the trick. The political farce goes like this -
1. Argue over the aisle.
2. Posture and have shit tons of press conferences with much conflicting information.
3. Debate takes place in the House or Senate.
4. Crash stock market.
5. Pass banker friendly bill.
6. Bend over the average American and sodomize.
7. Move to next banker need.
8. Go to step 1.
Their potential agreement would include a promise of tax reform in 2012, the aide said. In other words, this is not a deal at all, but merely promises of cuts at some point in the future, coupled with tax reform...in 2012.
Didn't they make a movie about this? Promises Promises? And we all know how Democrats keep their promises. Its why the whole thing is pushed off o 2012. This leaves Obama smelling like a rose. Can't wait to hear the liberal media kissing up to Obama as once again our savior. lol
Phew... now they can spend another few trillions of next generation middle class money increasing the ceiling today to well over $16T - so that matter is settled. Except, how is the Fed to exit the Markets leaving the bag behind?
Well, how about a technical default, ratings downgrades, Vito's, and amendments to the Constitution just for a start... Then, get Warren McGraw et al to form a melody chorus of moodie blues treasury Ratings Companies downgrades (but no US default), moving AAA (Aa1) paper into AA+, and in doing so, triggering MONEY MARKET (MMF) investment policy statement issues of restrictive operating covenants and investment restrictions on holding any paper less than AAA-. Suddenly a forced (sell) surge out of T-Bills and money market fund liquidation/redemption into what? Dividend paying bankster and insurance AIG stock that "The Bernank" is loaded up with, and perhaps even now some 10 & 30yr for the $TT MMF's legally forced to buy something else?
Dig a little deeper into federal retirement funds and begin to tap 401k's in 3...2...1.
Sorry ladies, but it's tits up.
Does any of this really matter anymore? More and more this reminds me of making up new rules in monopoly when the bank ran out of money.
pods
Since I was always the Monopoly bank, when it ran out of money it usually meant I had won. Of course I did tend to cheat just a little.
#Winning
I wonder if it would be possible to get enough Zimbabwe notes to use for a newer, more educational Monopoly game?
pods
Shit. Just print them up.
A few bazillion more ain't gonna make a bit of difference. :)
United States of America 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Negative On Rising Risk Of Policy Stalemate
I am proposing 200 TRILLION dollars in budget cuts over the next century. If only the unreasonable tea partiers would agree to small( less than 10%) annual increases in taxes over the next 20 years.
Even the usual cheerleaders over at Bloomberg are suggesting jail time for congress. No kidding:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-21/threat-of-jail-would-end-u-s-bu...
Tee Hee.
If you see something, say something! Rat out Congress to DHS!
Tyler,
do you not know that Reuters is owned by the Rothschilds ?
the same with AP (associated press). They are literally, one in the same.
Yup.
They are the bottleneck, the clearing house of information, the "ministry of truth"
that delivers all other newspapers and TV stations with "news".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WreAKYmEifc&feature=related
100 bucks says they do a three month 360 Billion dollar extention deal to work out a more "concrete" deal?
Will that even cover the pension raids?
Barely. The G-Fund was $300B; and there is another smaller fund that they could/(did?) also raid.
Honestly, though, why worry about restoring the funds at all?
Those pensions were promises based on no real ability to pay, as we can now see.
.gov has been stealing the SS tax receipts for years and doesn't intend to restore those funds, so I say: hey - how's it feel there Mr. Bureaucrat? Welcome to the party.
Republicrats...
Baa.
We'll spend, borrow and raise taxes... and promise to discuss a balanced budget and tax relief in the future.
If this is true, these guys just legislated their own term limits.
Maybe I'm alone on this one, but I've a problem with a guy that wears a pink tie and is prone to weep for no apparant reason negotiating ANYTHING on my behalf.
If news of a deal with the president are true [currently they have been "disconfirmed"], then Boehner is not doing a deal on your behalf...so nothing to worry about.
...or the counter-factual, then Boehner is doing a deal on your behalf... so everything to worry about.
Sustainable Default!
Contra Guy Indeed!
I'd settle for a Sustainable President.
You guys need to ignore this stuff.
They can manipulate all things with only one exception.
There is only so much oil coming out of the ground. Nothing they can do will change that. They can pretend to do it with the SPR, but global consumption overwhelms what they can do with the SPR.
Only oil is going to take all this down. Nothing else. Nothing else will matter, either. Not bonds, not stocks, not gold. When oil doesn't make it to the trucks that deliver food, only seeds will matter.
Oil started it. I agree, oil is going to finish it.
New drug 'Spenditol'.....This is great...and the gal in it is pretty good looking too....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5k_TLz_f8SU&feature=player_embedded
Guess I'll have to add that one to my list:
New financial drugs:
Debtrol Forclosen
Subprimacare Nuvopor
Panix Colapsin
Greedquil Scamagain
Feariflu Defeatra
Defaulta Corruptol
+1
Giving credit where credit is due.
That impressive list actually reads closer to what I'd expect to see in pharmacies than I used to imagine.
we dont have a word cloud yet, but I am willing to further seed one.
Lots of money being made in the markets by those who have the script for this puppet show in hand.
really, lots of money being 'made'? All I see is sloshing around of the same worthless dollars. This is just a stupid game of make believe.
I guess I should update a previous post, before all the recent news on budget and ceiling issues. My original prediction:
1) The debt ceiling will be lifted after much drama.
2) Tax cuts for the top remain in place, defense budget untouchable.
3) Pain for everyone else.
UPDATE:
I now predict -
1) The debt ceiling will be lifted after much drama.
2) Tax cuts for the top remain in place, defense budget untouchable.
3) Pain for everyone else.
+1
... look at the set of crystal balls on Herb!
Thanks for the pat on the back.
Sometimes, after many pints of brew, I see visions of evil bankers and corrupt politicians.
The next day it is easy to read the script.
My Nostradamus Effect.
This should be a ZH headline:
Obama's Press Secretary: Economy has "vastly improved"
http://realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/07/21/carney_economy_has_vastly_...
"vastly"...... bitchez
He didn't quite say vastly. He said the much more important "va-hastly", with emphasis on the second syllable.
Buy more Gold now? Or wait till August 2nd?
Since nobody else dares touching that investment allocation question as posed by a thoughtful poster, I will set it off, by offering my personal trading strategy and my personal investment plan thesis for all to consume (or dispose of):
I have recently started by "sustainably" buying 100% short ($1607) gold bullion ETF's in another currency than USD, now adding 200% short bullion ETF's, (HBD-T) is my present choice for my goals and objectives (you should consult an investment advisor to determine your own goals, risks bla,bla..), so that by August 2nd, I can buy even more, 300% x bullion inverse ETF's on that date ... if it is still cheap.
Why? My reasoning is that if the debt limit (or selective default) is expanded even by a few hundred $B's - and likely a few $T's, everyone expects gold to surge $100-$1,500+.
Nobody, I mean nobody, but a fool... would expect gold bullion prices to fall after printing billions more - and thus why I am heading into the burning bullion bank, hands over fist, backing up our little yellow short bus on the bet that the yellow precious metal, as a safety bet, will - in the short term - go astray for the risk adverse, drop in price, and burn the return avoiders, forcing them back unwillingly into recapitalizing the broader markets.
Sarc. On/ Please do you own due diligence and consult your own investment professional for any investment advice. /Sarc off.
Comments welcome (other than swap dealers/holders from Roths' bullion banks who can lend it out for a $1600 borrow today, and buy it back a month later, at a far cheaper price per ounce).
more centralized financial, industrial, military, government power... that didnt take long
.
topin it off got the old folks white knuckling their future... so the gubmint can pretend its making the hard choices
.
jaw boner telling us 47% of US citizens dont 'pay' taxes to keep the fear alive rite... whos next lolz
.
CHINA
3 trillion over 10 years is about 300 billion a year. 2011 deficit is 1600 billion (1.6 trillion). We are screwwed.
Ripley: You know, Burke, I don't know which species is worse. You don't see them fucking each other over for a goddamn percentage.
Higher interest rates would be bullish for seniors living on earnings from savings accounts.
"Doing a Greece". Selective default seems more likely, if not now then in the very near future. Reducing the debt without killing economic growth sounds just dandy, but at this level of debt, uncle Sam really ought to be selling pencils on the street corner to keep himself together instead of daydreaming about growth and borrowing more. I wonder who will be the unlucky selectees in the first round of defaults?
We all know it will end in tears, and knowing the American penchant for dramatic violence to punctuate each decade, I think another war with a resource-rich nation is on the horizon. But maybe Americans will surprise us all by collapsing their global corporate military empire with a modicum of dignity instead. Yeah, right.
If every war-like operation requires nation building, one more should break the US's back.
Don't know why our enemies would oppose that. The past and present occupiers of the white house seem on board for just that.
It might be a very difficult concept for a paranoid hawk to get his head around, but America has no enemies except the ones it creates for itself, either directly to feed the industrial complex or by leaving angry survivors and relatives after the nth bombing raid to kill some "bad guys" along with a kindergarten of children and babies. Case studies in point are Afghanistan and Iraq. The same people (Mujahedeen/Taliban, Saddam/Baath Party, Good Kurds/Bad Kurds) were the good guys for decades, and now they are the bad guys, and then they will be the good guys again - how does that work? Look, 99.99% of people in other nations have their own troubles and just want to be left alone to enjoy life and look after their loved ones in their own unique ways. End of story.
As for "nation building" after a war, I haven't seen any evidence of that in my life time. All the unauditable billions poured into a war zone ultimately end up in the hands of American contractors and their Cayman Island banksters. I don't know why some people have such a hard time understanding such a simple concept: War should not be used as an extension of foreign policy because it is insane. But you're right, the past and present occupiers of the white house are from the same mould.
With all these cans to be kicked down the road, I sure hope they don't miss one.
default already. The old people can still do some work and the sick will just have to accept it's their time. The value of stuff will be reset and many people will lose everything but they can start fresh As long as the farmer grows food and there is some work then all will be OK. Empty the jails and legalize pot. Fire all govt workers. You don't need a govt or a military. Fuck the police.
Watch this. I'll put a dent in the debt problem right now, in under a minute:
1. Close all American military bases abroad. Bring all the troops home. Quit spending money on useless programs even the military doesn't want.
2. Legalize all drugs, gambling, and prostitution. Tax them heavily. Release all nonviolent drug offenders from prison.
3. Return tax rates to what they were under St. Reagan.
4. Make corporate malfeasance and fraud punishable by death.
But we can't do any of those. That would make sense.