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The Upward Grind Continues
It appears the Bernanke, Geithner, LLP has the Perpetual Motion Machine working perfectly at the moment. Bank shares grinding up, gold and oil prices capped and collared, and bond prices spiking immediately prior to each of the giant auctions. And don't forget the constant and continuous breakout parade in various stocks. All happening admidst a deepening recession.
Its a complete command and control economy as the Washington and Wall St. elites have been able to successfully stave off each and every crisis over and over again.
As my buddy Rasputin sums it up...
Rasputin - Thu, Jan 14, 2010 - 10:55 AM
Question: What is the total number of "Doom and Gloom" titles, setting
an all-time record, Rasputin just counted on the shelves in the
"Economics" and "Investing" sections of his local Barnes and Noble?
Yep, that's right folks. A staggering, unprecedented, array of
35 "We're Scroomed" tomes can be found to tittilate the deepest fantasies
of hard-core bears.
Sheesh, at an average price of twenty-five fiatscos each, a guy
could bankrupt himself buying them all--making their prophecies a
self-fulfilling one for the hapless fool who falls for their fallacies
of economic collapse.
I fully expect to see every one of these titles being offered in
the "Bargain Bin" in less than six months as the current reflation of
the stock markets and economy continues.
Furthermore, I'm embarassed to admit that I actually used to buy,
read--and more importantly--believe all these charlatan's claims that
the economy was gonna collapse any minute now, they swear.
But no longer will they separate an enlightened Rasputin from his
fiatscos. Nay, I have been converted into a true believer of the
infinite power of the Fed and Uncle Sugar.
..........................................
So what was moving today??
First on the leaderboard was a 10% romp in Textron..
Regional banks like Suntrust, racked with billions and billions of commercial real estate and consumer loan delinquencies.
And with 20% of Americans unemployed, don't forget the hotel and leisure sector. It appears that unemployment benefits are being parlayed into Marriott vacations and timeshares now.
And BIDU extends its streak. Must be Goldman chopping off the knees of one of its biggest clients who is stuck with an outsized short position..
And now we get to watch the 4th quarter unveiling of Silcon Valley's oldest supermodel.
We don't know which Kathie Lee we are going to get.
The "resubstantiated" extreme makeover version?
Or the beaten, haggard, old maid version?
So which is it going to be??
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I'll take the under on INTC and predict a hairball when it comes to their forecast. I know I'm out on limb here but... It's in my genes so don't blame me.
Respect to you RobotTrader from Russia :)
"the beaten, haggard, old maid version"
Hey, take it easy on the "older" ladies. They're all I can entice to have a romp with these days!
they dont' tell, don't swell and are grateful as hell.
LOL Funny.
As opposed to this old fart, who tells everyone I know when I get laid, am swelling daily from the gas and as ungrateful as the cranky old bastard I am.
:>))
I wonder how often the Gif is getting it?
Solars got whacked in a big way today (CSIQ, TSL, YGE, STP) - Leo, what's up?
distressed deals were priced behind closed doors + oil likely be done = last hurrah momo names top out ahead of the main fare while mkt participants of all stripes continue to chant rah, rah, rah while at the same time sheeple-ing themselves into the presumed safety of liquid large caps. sound familiar?
on a lighter note: told ya you'd get CSIQ playing in that pool. not for the weak of heart or those planning to buy n hold. weekly candle is a tweezer top & bearish engulfing, which already hit its anticipated upward retrace tgt. daily bearish engulfing ain't pretty but its lower wick did hold above the daily 34 EMA as well as hold a small open interface of support. yesterday's daily high wave candlestick alone screamed caution while whispering 'buy puts, now.' easy trade over. next.
But then again, maybe it's just the options.
"whats up"? The volume on those Solar names as they got smacked.
The rising number of Doom and Gloom titles reminds me of a dinner scene several months ago. One guest remarked that she had decided to stop buying/collecting Bibles. Another guest asked, "Why are you buying so many in the first place, they all say the same thing?!" Abundant laughing from all, followed.
Sometimes we just get wrapped up in all of it.
I have to be careful reading too much of my own beliefs.
Institutionalization of moral hazard has reached the point of singularity. Price action is unidirectional. There is only one transactional behavior which is utilized - buy. Buy the dips, buy the rumor, buy the news, average in, buy-up your basis, buy the discounted future earnings, buy into the dream, buy, buy, buy.
I feel as if I'm the only person in the world who continues to sit on his hands and just watch the unrestrained enthusiasm play itself out in ever higher valuations.
What a spectacle.
Don't feel like the Lone Ranger. I have missed much of it too. First because I was scared and didn't trust what I was watching. Then it became amusing, then I became pissed off and refused to feed the beast.
One of the best ones I heard today was about California Pizza kitchen. They reported early earnings, sales down 5.8% percent, got downgraded. Yet the stock went up over 3 percent on the news they were opening 19 new stores in the middle east, including Dubai. Buy, buy, buy.
Sometimes the market prefers to focus more on tomorrow than yesterday.
ah hahaha ....bwahaha. That's a good one!
No?
Really?
Here is a thought from perma-bull Cramer in response to why this market keeps going up up up. Thoughts from the ZH braintrust?
Every day I read through Don Dion's terrific ETF material, and it reminds me, every day, that the mutual fund inflow numbers are no longer the key to understanding the buying. It's no secret that mutual funds haven't gotten any money in for a long time now, a period that is frankly defined by the moment ETFs came into their own. We are now in ETF ascendancy, with as much as 30% of trading coming from the major discount houses in ETFs -- a lot of money that might have otherwise gone into mutual funds.
In fact, I think that the only consistent inflow for mutual funds comes from 401(k)s, where you are totally handcuffed to them, whether you like it or not.
Lots of people have been fooled into believing that stocks should be lower, that it's just a matter of time before they go down because there isn't any fuel. But the fuel could be ETFs, which often are more powerful and overwhelm the underlying stocks anyway.
There are a lot of icons that have been smashed and a lot of barometers proved worthless during this period. They just don't forecast accurately or tell the truth anymore.
Mutual fund inflows may be still one more false tell.
I'm not using it any more.
Guess you wish you were holding the INTC bag?
nnnnnnnooooooope
Just curious about Rasputin. While I don't argue that the plan is to reinflate, I have to ask why anyone would think that the Fed, which when it comes down to it is just one big screwup after the next, could pull off their stated objective?
I personally don't believe they can, and so I sit and wait while the crack whores gobble up rocks of INTC.
when it comes to betting my money, in a short time frame, i go with the fed.
on a longer time frame, i go with the markets. particularly the bond market.
Al: I think there were some news out of Germany concerning the solars today.
Yeah, I saw the news item. Market reaction seemed a little overdone, given that there wasn't much of substance there, and it wasn't exactly a surprise. Anyway, Leo's been a strong advocate of 'buying the dips', just wondering what his take is on this one...
Al,
How does one measure "overdone", some of the solar stocks are up 500% in 10 months and make no money?
I know, but how long has it been (if ever) since fundamentals had anything to do with market valuations? Anyway, the advance so far has been fairly orderly, no big parabolic blow-off top, which is why the big sector-wide dump on an up-day in the market on 'news' that was already largely known or anticipated seemed odd to me. Still, in a market that lives and dies by momentum, its best just to respect the consensus - 'everybody - out of the solars, where's the next hot sector?'
Grains look good to me .... Corn,Wheat, Beans and Bean meal.
ETF GRU ( and a few others ), it ain't "hot" but it ain't bad.
GLD for the next 4 days.
Buy it and then dump it mid-week.
Score.
Wait 3 - days then buy it again.
Rinse and repeat.
I'm not ringing the bell here, but when we begin to make dismissive comments like this, well....
How does one measure "overdone", some of the solar stocks are up 500% in 10 months and make no money?
aaaah, looks like you weren't around during the dot com boom then bust.
your answer lies within that period of time.
So INTC just beat by 30% on EPS. 10.xB in q4 rev.
But that's all a ponzi-scheme. What do these "chips" do anyay? What do you dip them in?
I mean... they dont make spam, they dont mine gold, and they dont make shotguns! They must be just leading us off the cliff.
-Back-to-Bunker
Yikes! She's holding her hands out like she's gonna grab me!
Solars got slaughtered on heavy volume as both Germany and France announced cuts on solar tariffs: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=CSIQ,JASO,ESLR,FSLR,LDK,SOL,SOLF,SOLR,SPWRA,STP,TSL,YGE
OUCH! My bet is that the big hedgies love this news, scooping up more shares for themselves.
Finally, links to today's market action:
Most active decliners: NYSE
Nasdaq
Amex
Most active gainers: NYSE
Nasdaq
Amex
SYMC (thank you chinese hackers)
Hmmm...INTC jumps on cue....30X earnings for a
commodity producer. Belongs in the bargain bin
with the gloom and doom books. Not a bad company,
but i ain't paying a 30 multiple. Sheesh.
Uh... how is it 30x? It looks like 17x trailing.
Also, q4 2008 was $0.04/shr... this Q was $0.40/shr. Thats a 1000% growth rate.
At $0.40/shr for a Q... thats $1.6 for the year... its about 12.5x at INTC close price. They guided higher for next Q.
lol...1000% growth?
What are the GAAP full year earnings?
Can you say 77 cents?....whoopee.
I would go all in and hope for a
bagholder that believes your 1000%
growth story.
Uh, only bc of last years bad Qs. Like I said, YoY growth rate in your cherished "GAAP EPS" was 1000% this q. For q1, last years eps was 11c. What odds you want to give me they >200% that? And then even more in q2, which last year was -7c.
So now we have a GAAP run-rate of ~1.6/shr.
Wow, so thats what financial analysis is all about.
If you looked at trailing PE, you were a HUGE seller in 2009. Look at how the E grows...1000%.
If you dont want to be a sucker in markets... forget about the past, focus ONLY on the future. Markets only care about return/risk tomorrow. Yesterday is already in the price.
Yes, indeed. Everything going up except employment, lending, domestic manufacturing, corporate earnings, political integrity, and common sense.
Reminds me of the dot.com era---irrational exuberence.
+10 ^10
Check out DPZ in the last week. Never knew pizza was so profitable.
oh pizza has always been very profitable. so are burgers. WEN
No doubt, the huge run in these solars is OVER.
You can't be serious!
While the European subsidy news was a great excuse, the problem is, the cuts were less than telegraphed and anticipated. The solar run has only just begun.
Great excuse for some underwater option writers to pounce, though. And with all the financial 'journalists' spouting that reason, it is a little too much to be believed.
for my bretheren who were around in the 70s, rumor has it that Jimmy Carter still has his cardigans.
in all seriousness, I've believed in solar power as perhaps the most intelligent manner in which to derive energy...hey, it's from the sun and zero pollution and all that. however, they were talking solar big time like this back in the mid 70s (fwiw, i had an environmental sciences minor back then, finished college in 77). I do hope the economic model can work but so far i'm not impressed.
yeah 1975 building house, father-in-law talks us into erecting a huge trombe wall facing south. by the time the house was finished the technology of concrete glazed surface creating a thermal mass plus a two story stone storage or something was already out of date. got a credit on our taxes under carter, just sent in the plans didn't even need to be working. like my neighbor said, sunshine is kind of like a good friend never there when you need them.
Well, not exactly. Anything manufactured creates pollution in the process and the eventual disposal is not exactly "green".
you are absolutely correct. i should have qualified "zero" pollution.
Ever visited a foundry making those solar cells? the amount of toxic chemical and liquid they throw out require dedicated treatment on-site before they can be removed for further processing. And the amount of energy that goes to mine the metals and minerals and purify and grow the silicon crystals that is used to make the wafer, plus the power needed to run the robots and factories etc, the equation doesn't balance - it takes far more energy to generate a joule of solar than you get out of it, dude. It is another illusion, another one of those crap invented by greenpeace folks.
the prices, have come down to $1.74 per watt, and a system is still too pricey, to compete with grid power, and we have lots, and lots of natural gas, and coal. most solar systems, are installed, during new construction. there ain't much of that goin on now, or in the near term.take your profits off the table, while they exist
Yes, I'd say 'buying the bounce off the 50dma' might not work out as well this time as it has for the past 8 months.
Robo,
You may be a great trader but when it comes to solars, don't use words like OVER. Many companies have orders booked to capacity and those cuts in tariffs won't do a thing since demand is growing around the world, especially in China. When solars dip hard on big volume, the big boys are buying. Watch these stocks carefully in 2010. Keep buying them dips on solars.
Sorry, Leo...
My experience is that a big volume sell off after a huge run means:
1) A very long consolidation process will be required to build a new base
or
2) The stock could drop sharply and lose 38% of its gains within a very short timeframe.
If one makes a living off of trading, it means its time to get out of this sector and go elsewhere. And maybe look at this sector again in 3 - 6 months.
Of course, a huge move in FSLR either way can change everything.
I'm not sure I know when they report next.
Agree, the volume's the big red-flag for me. Still a decent chance for a rebound back near the previous highs, but I'd expect several weeks of range-bound consolidation before there's any chance of a resumed uptrend.
leo, high demand, worldwide? which world are you talking, about, because the world I see has a hard enough time, just feeding itself, and it ain't gettin any better, in the near term .the big picture is changing. change with it, or get left behind. the old bets are off.
FSLR looks weak
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FSLR&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p64899454931
Robo,
My experience with solars is that whenever they sell off sharply on big volume, they bounce right back. It might not happen tomorrow, but they will head right back up shortly. Going forward, you'll see strong earnings and good outlooks for solars. I'm sticking with my call: this will be the red hot sector for 2010 and investors should be initiating or adding positions on sharp sector selloffs. Traders can trade them, but they will get whipsawed in and out of positions if they place their stops too tight. That's why I prefer holding them long-term.
My guess is that the worldwide correction in stocks will start in China, the action in solars today my be a taste of what is to come.
If the world really wants clean energy we have natural gas in abundance.
Chineese Solar stocks are way ahead of themselves here, where does China get most of its energy?... Coal
+1
Leo, is this an homage to Joe DiMaggio and Mr. Coffee?
Whole-heartedly agree with the declaration that we toil in a Command-&-Control economy, though I wouldn't really state that the masters of the universe are truly "abating" the crisis. Just another period of "controlled-demolition" followed by continued and accelerated consolidation of the industrial and financial sectors.
I guess the reason we hold on to beliefs of a future socio-economic armageddon is that each and every new crisis brings the fact that the fundamentals of the economy seen in a "traditional" sense become more abhorrent. We keep asking the question "When the hell is this stack of cards going to collapse???" We see the charts, indicators, and have wonderful forums of information sharing and debate on such sites as ZH... and it's natural/logical to assume that this ponzi scheme of an economic structure must at some point come to an end.
I guess the more appropriate question would be "Is the deck stacked for a systematic collapse, or just an incremental deterioration of the middle/working class and all hopes of a future free-market economy?" A better question for us peons would be "Do we play survival mode and try and profit at each up/downturn .... or do we take the fight to the Agent Smiths?"
Incremental deterioration is the default modality with intermittent head fakes. Gotta stay nimble because there's not much room for error when you try to control the economy, and there's always going to be the law of unintended consequences.
There's a key reason for the command and control of the market: without a rising market the ongoing flood of secondaries would grind to a halt. And that's all that stands in the way of bankruptcy for a big number of US corporates. Can't raise enough in the cap markets even now. Through the magic of the Fed/Wall Street Mafia, these secondaries dilute the shares but never dilute the share price!
Their hope is to keep the party going this way until the V-shaped recovery kicks in. They were counting on a couple more quarters (or so Obama is being told). After that it's just another fleecing of taxpayers, an outright fraud with no hope of recovering money, and if there's not a significant pick up in the economy many larger corps will fold anyway. Deflationary forces are overpowering even the mighty lungs of the fed.
Ok which is it? Economic recovery or deepening recession?
Seeing how I'm as dense a 400 oz tungsten filled gold ingot.
I was totally unable to follow the gist of you and your friends' extremely witty repartee.
Are we looking at years of 10% plus unemployment, another round of QE, including QEII-IV, higher taxes, trillions of new Federal debt, a take over of the health care sector by the nitwits up at 1600 Pennsylvania, Cap and Trade taxes, new resets in the RE sector along with an implosion in the CRE sector along the lines of Dubai, along with various other doom and gloom economic minutiae gleaned from the ZH website.
Or is a new bubblicious economic paradigm being born from the ashes of the 08-09 crash like a phoenix reborn anew?
another great read robot, thanks. Does anyone know where I can get free option analysis showing out of the ordinary call or put buying? I really dont want to pay for a scan that I can prob set up myself just dont know where to look. thanks in advance.
look for Howard Beale....he knows options. perhaps he can help.
(ROTFLMFAO)^2
Reminds one of what the noise the roller coaster makes climbing while gathering momentum...
Click, Click... click.... click
When you see the market rise like this, relentlessly, and it doesn't make sense based on current or future economic or business conditions, I know one thing. It will end badly. It ended badly in 2000. It ended badly in 2007-2009. It will end badly again.
Stocks will get crushed until they're cheap.
It won't take long before the US can't make the interest payments on its debt.
Probably be a series of implosions like 2007-2009 taking everything down stepwise.
volumes.
volumes.
volumes.
and, as always, history.
it's gonna be a doozy.
Yep, you will be sucking that popsicle until 2018 and still whining "Why hasn't it all come tumbling down yet?"
Just keep waiting for Pretend and Extend to fail.
You will be waiting for a long, long time.
it's bulls like you with limited financial and balance sheet knowledge and that pre programmed thinking that a v recovery is always the norm confirm my bearishness.
there were tons like you in 2007 and 87 and 1930 and, well, like i said in another post, history is a better guide than sell side analysts and those that think a government (i include the fed in that category as a member of the oligarchy) can control markets.
this isn't complicated. it's a counter trend rally, nothing more, nothing less.
we'll see how the game plays out.
This just in ... beep bu beep beep...numbers go higher while values go lower...investors find they lack basic understanding of system they relied on for retirement...international tensions rise...beep...unemployment continues...buh...
*Sings Greek nation anthem in english*
We knew thee of old,
Oh, divinely restored,
By the lights of thine eyes,
And the light of thy Sword,
From the graves of our slain,
Shall thy valour prevail,
As we greet thee again-
Hail, Liberty! Hail!
(repeat previous two lines three times)
Gold is not capped. I've NEVER seen it act like this. It usually is allowed to run up and then chained up as it's swap spread is collapsed and it's slowly brought down to it's target level. It's spazzing out right now. It's up and down in the same days every day which means it's not under control at all. The door has been smashed on the barn.
I've been watching this all week - upward pressure overnight, then brought right back down when the US market opens. Then a hard selloff right before the day's treasury auction, and then a rebound shortly after the auction. I've been assuming the selloff's in some way related to the need to market the debt issues.
Gold up by night and down by day. I thought it was a scam by my precious metals dealer to get me to pay top dollar when I'm home at night pricing gold coins, lol. I've bought 1 oz gold coins at night to see the price drop $40 by noon the next day.
On this cold winter night it warms my heart to know that Kathy Lee has moved beyond those old 1995 rumors about her line of women's clothing being made by child labor and sweat shops. Thanks to Diane Clehane (FISHBOWLNY) for this update on Kathy Lee's lunch at swanky restaurant Michael's:
Lunch: Kathie Lee Gifford and Friends Grab a Bite Before Broadway
"As usual, there were also plenty of famous faces to liven things up. Kathie Lee Gifford was first to arrive with her pal Sunny Lucani. Despite the frigid temps outside, the Today show host was rocking open-toed Gucci heels (without hosiery, of course) and a jade sleeveless sheath. "I'm always hot!" she joked. I just had to compliment the seemingly ageless morning show vet on her longer, blonder locks. "The same woman (Jacquie Poldoro) has been coming to my house for years to do my nails and hair," she told me. That's quite a house call. As she does every Wednesday, Kathie Lee was having an early lunch before heading off to see a Broadway show with friends."
http://www.mediabistro.com/fishbowlny/lunch/lunch_kathie_lee_gifford_and...
Robo...
as you well know, i've been a fan of yours since day one.
the repeated kathy lee thing has now proven to me beyond a shadow of a doubt that you are going for the older ones (i understand the politically correct term is cougars), not the young hotties we (old guys, at least) prefer to see. i'll bet it's maxine waters when you're in l.a. and when you go up the coast, it's a feinstein/pelosi sandwich.
p.s. if you ever post a picture of Christina Romer, all hell is going to break loose.
"Amidst a deepening recession"? Yes, undoubtedly too true.
BUT THIS IS NOT INVESTING. It is gambling, speculation, and I'm doing it too. The music is still playing. We have to dance. The economy, the Depression, unemployment, P/E ratios, earnings, future earnings, past earnings, debt loads, and even share price mean very little now.
Don't confuse the squeegee kids and panhandlers outside the casino with the high-rollers within, busy trying to make money the only way available. There sure as hell are no other places to "invest" in a depression, are there?
This market will crash just like the dotcom bubble did and the housing bubble did in the sunshine states. Something will finally trigger it the Fed and PPT cant stop it forever. I say they cant stop it before the end of 2011 which is 2 more years anyway but most likely we get that descent started prior to the end of this year.
Stocks never go down as long as the government continues to buy. Do they?
C wave down soon .
Nope. This will go on and on until near summer, or longer if the stimulating can continue...
In mid 2009 I warned of an impending USD rally.
The USD Index weekly chart continues to give bullish warnings and vice versa for the EURO.
The uptrend since March 2009 has been a bear market rally contained within a much larger bear cycle that started in 2000.
DOW/SP500 daily charts continue to show signs of being very overbought and a correction is overdue.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0