US 2011 Inflation: 10.6%?

Tyler Durden's picture

We thank Sean Corrigan of Diapason Securities for bringing our attention to the MIT Billion Price real time inflation Index (first reported here) who points out that based on the ongoing surge in prices, which have increased by 1.25% in the last 45 days (December 31, 2010: 101.085, February 14, 2011: 102.353), a simple annualization indicates a 10.6% increase in prices in 2011! With all undue respect to the Chairsatan (and other "disinflationists") it is time to bring Volcker out of the freezer once again. Look for the 30 Year to pass 5% in a few weeks. Oh yes, M2 surged to all new time highs again.

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FOC 1183's picture

annualized = 19.9% when compounded

jus_lite_reading's picture

"Whatchu talkin' 'bout Willis?"

I said the inflation for the middle class (aka the people that matter, aka the people that work hard, aka WE THE PEOPLE) is right around 32%-38%. Yeah, but of course for those who don't actually have to go food shopping because their servants do that menial task, don't KNOW that food is rapidly increasing. Game over folks!

UninterestedObserver's picture

Cotton at $2 won't mean anything either - when billions are starving AND naked I'm sure that will somehow be good for the DOW

Fish Gone Bad's picture

It looks like it is going to be expensive to go on vacation to Hawaii this year.

jus_lite_reading's picture

Correct. When all it takes is a key stroke to add 50 points to the DOW, anything is possible. Look at Zimbabwe for an example of actual money being printed to infinium; look the Fed for an example of digital money being "printed" to infinium... either way, the outcome is the same- total destruction.

JR's picture

Benbankway on the road to Zimbabwe--"the road of broken dreams."

StokeyBob's picture

That is for sure. When the value of money is cut in half it will take twice as much to buy the same amount of stock. Then again if you were to sell you would get twice as much but it would have the same value...until you paid your capital gains.

Maybe these are the false profits we were warned about!

TomJoad's picture

"These are not the CPI's you are looking for.

Move along please."

Sincerely, "The Bernank"

 

Jump! You Fuckers!

Think for yourself's picture

Thank you, my good sir! Ben's profile is exquisite, filled with delicious nuggets of irreverent humor!
Here's my three favorites...

From a technical point, the recession is very likely over at this point... September 15, 2009 at 1:10pm
prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good... August 13, 2010 at 3:07pm
At the rate we're going, it could be four, five years before we are back to a more normal unemployment rate... December 6, 2010 at 12:05am Pray tell, what the hell is a "more normal unemployment rate"? 8.5%? 8%? 

akak's picture

"May the Morg be with you."

Josh Randall's picture

Laszlo "Kermit" Birinyi's ruler knows no bounds 

jus_lite_reading's picture

BEnron to Kermit: "I'll give you a viagra for that there ruler..." TO the MOON ALICE!

MrTrader's picture

I just heard that Ben Bernanke is being sued personally by a business man from Oklahoma for forgery regarding bailout funds. The motion says Bernanke deliberately falsified or let falsifying documents to the US public....If true or not : I would like to see Ben in front of a grand jury!

Sophist Economicus's picture

"Heard?"   Common, give us the skinny...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This will eventually be dismissed with the argument that the Fed is protected by national security concerns. The Fed's lies must be covered up in the interest of continuing the Fed's lies.

Northeaster's picture

"Sovereign Immunity" inc...for everything.

Alienated Serf's picture

sovereign immunity is only for states.  i'll go with lack of standing.

TruthInSunshine's picture

I heard Bernanke is set to be publicly stoned for prostitution, beastiality, promiscous slutism, and spreading venereal diseases far and wide.

http://www.facebook.com/BenBernanke.US

Jerome Lester Horwitz's picture

That and the judge will rule that plaintiff has no standing to bring a suit.

ehildret's picture

I would like to see that too.  Too bad they don't let peasants in the grand juries' rooms...  they'll just spin it anyway.  We know how to read behind their front story.

sabra1's picture

i'd love to see benny in front of a grand cherokee!

Sophist Economicus's picture

Yes, yes, yes.   But after factoring in substitution, hedonics and eyes-of-newt, the true adjusted CPI will be .0003%.   I think we need an Economics 101 retreat for the folks at ZH

gwar5's picture

They got rid of Volcker already, or he walked on them, which was the big tip they could care less about inflation.

That, and the fact TPTB lie about all the numbers.

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Nonsense. They ran models on how much boobus americanus will tolerate (inflation) before they cause civil unrest.

 

they will ride it to that figure and not blink.

 

Whether the models are correct is a different story...

themosmitsos's picture

Tyler, can you please explain to me how the 30s & 10s go higher when the FED owns so much of that market, especially the 30s? This is why I don't think the 10s/30s can really sustain higher--there's effectively zero market *in*which* they can go "no-bid" & start blowing out. I'm expecting the 2s3s5s to just grind higher and as DXY collapses, for them to invert the curve & drag the WHOLE thing higher ==> HyperInflation. Not being condescending, honest question, please correct where/how I'm wrong. Thanks :)

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The Ponzi simply can't admit to this type of drastic increase in inflation since the official lie has been little to no "real" inflation as far as the eye can see. Expect the lies to continue until the Ponzi's America Pravda (aka the compliant USA press) along with the Ponzi itself looses all credibility even among the brain dead.

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

CD--You are assuming they haven't run models on this issue. they have an "idea" of how much inflation will be tolerated by the peasants before they turn off the TV and riot.

 

the real question is how can WE figure out what that number (% inflation) is?

Think about your assumptions a bit more. (Of course they could be wrong, but they have thought about this, for sure).

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'm not saying they can't admit to "unexpected inflation", only that they can't go from 1% to 10% all at once. There will a big big lag in admitting what everyone already knows.

As someone who lived through the inflation of the 70's and 80's this inflation movie is a repeat.....though the circumstance are very different and much more desperate. In fact, like a fanatic of "The Rocky Horror Picture Show" or "Beetlejuice" who has seen the movie dozens of time, I can recite the "no inflation here" dialogue better than the on screen actors can. :>)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rocky_Horror_Picture_Show

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beetlejuice

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

CD--I understand that. I guess my comments stems from the fact we all do a lot of commenting on ZH, but not a lot of extrapolation and analysis in the comments. We beat our chests. Now what?

 

Can't we do our own efforts to figure out what and where WE think the breaking point is, KWIM?

 

also, if we "ran" the show what the frak would we do to try to fix it? For better or worse, what financial policies would we consider (beyond TEOTWAKI and Jump Puckers, etc)

 

I get frustrated with our herd mentality here sometimes.

 

Why can't we just figure shit out? We can't do worse than our governemnt, who reads this site and the comments anyway.

 

Maybe we'll get lucky.

 

also, I drink a lot.

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

CD--also, all I am saying is that there have already run models on this. Of course they think they have an answer for it.

 

But are they right?

 

That is the question. (History so far, has not been their friend).

 

Second--Can  WE build a model based on reality and figure this out, perhaps using Egypt as part of the model?

 

Third -would it be worth doing our own grassroots effort to figure out inflation each month, ourselves? We have the means to do it, we just need a good statistics person and e need to be told what to gather.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I think www.shadowstats.com does a great job on the economic numbers.

But as far as running models, we don't have the correct info because we aren't privy to what's really going on in the back rooms. We simply don't know what the Fed knows. We only know what we are told and what we can deduce looking at secondary indicators.

hardcleareye's picture

Good postings gentleman(person), enjoyed the read.

A Nanny Moose's picture

Pravda will just spin it off as an "honest mistake", as with the CPAC video.

dark pools of soros's picture

so they can't admit what everyone's bank account is telling them?

To understand that, you have to understand who TPTB really care as their audience. ANyone who is affected by daily needs rising and smacking their budget already know how bad it is and isn't a mover/shaker anyway.  The real audience isn't concerned about those problems and the CPI Ben speaks of is to communicate trade moves outside of the normal vision.

SpeakerFTD's picture

Eagerly awaiting Ben's book on hell.

101 years and counting's picture

POMO sumbitted to accepted was 5.59.  Is this a high as banks try to put everything they have back to the Fed????

Serious trouble lurking?

Ancona's picture

There is no inflation here, because we used hedonics to adjust our values. You see, when bread becomes too expensive, people will simply substitute mud cakes.

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

who ya gonna believe: sean corrigan or zh's own resident genius the old catfish mouth robo uber bull bear wanna be who has made it abundantly clear on these pages that .... in his words ... there is no inflation because wti (rather than brent) is down from $92 to $87. i think the old catfish mouth is bucking for a job with the chairsatan's enterprise. he'll fit nicely in a cubicle next to that fed "economist" who said that rising oil leads to an increase gdp.

akak's picture

I always used to wonder who was more eager to kneel before Ben while licking their lips in anticipation of performing fellatio on the ChairSatan, RoboTroll or Leo Koliasskiss.  Given the abdication of the latter from his former campaign of numerous (and typically junked-into-oblivion) pro-Fed comments here, I guess the answer is the former.

oh_bama's picture

The budget cut is very deflationary!

Many smart guys don't see long term inflation

you guys need to wake up.

Why more americans are retired due to wealth effects and stable low inflation outlook?

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

budget cut math: $3.7 trillion minus $100 billion equals?

Deathtöngue's picture

I find it strange that Zerohedge has no comment on today's drop in cotton prices.

No, wait.. not "strange"... what's the word I'm looking for? Oh yeah - TYPICAL.

PS: Weimar, fiat, Zimbabwe.

karzai_luver's picture

lock up lock down.

 

you are still locked up !

jus_lite_reading's picture

To offset the increase in WOOL? Keep your mind open imbecile. ZH reports that INFLATION is here to stay. A 3% drop after a 100% rise is what?