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US 2011 Inflation: 10.6%?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We thank Sean Corrigan of Diapason Securities for bringing our attention to the MIT Billion Price real time inflation Index (first reported here) who points out that based on the ongoing surge in prices, which have increased by 1.25% in the last 45 days (December 31, 2010: 101.085, February 14, 2011: 102.353), a simple annualization indicates a 10.6% increase in prices in 2011! With all undue respect to the Chairsatan (and other "disinflationists") it is time to bring Volcker out of the freezer once again. Look for the 30 Year to pass 5% in a few weeks. Oh yes, M2 surged to all new time highs again.

 

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Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:13 | 974297 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

annualized = 19.9% when compounded

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:24 | 974377 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

"Whatchu talkin' 'bout Willis?"

I said the inflation for the middle class (aka the people that matter, aka the people that work hard, aka WE THE PEOPLE) is right around 32%-38%. Yeah, but of course for those who don't actually have to go food shopping because their servants do that menial task, don't KNOW that food is rapidly increasing. Game over folks!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:45 | 974522 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

Cotton at $2 won't mean anything either - when billions are starving AND naked I'm sure that will somehow be good for the DOW

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:22 | 974752 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

It looks like it is going to be expensive to go on vacation to Hawaii this year.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:37 | 974827 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Correct. When all it takes is a key stroke to add 50 points to the DOW, anything is possible. Look at Zimbabwe for an example of actual money being printed to infinium; look the Fed for an example of digital money being "printed" to infinium... either way, the outcome is the same- total destruction.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 14:02 | 974939 JR
JR's picture

Benbankway on the road to Zimbabwe--"the road of broken dreams."

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 00:26 | 978924 StokeyBob
StokeyBob's picture

That is for sure. When the value of money is cut in half it will take twice as much to buy the same amount of stock. Then again if you were to sell you would get twice as much but it would have the same value...until you paid your capital gains.

Maybe these are the false profits we were warned about!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:13 | 974310 TomJoad
TomJoad's picture

"These are not the CPI's you are looking for.

Move along please."

Sincerely, "The Bernank"

 

Jump! You Fuckers!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 19:19 | 975967 Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

Thank you, my good sir! Ben's profile is exquisite, filled with delicious nuggets of irreverent humor!
Here's my three favorites...

From a technical point, the recession is very likely over at this point... September 15, 2009 at 1:10pm
prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good... August 13, 2010 at 3:07pm
At the rate we're going, it could be four, five years before we are back to a more normal unemployment rate... December 6, 2010 at 12:05am Pray tell, what the hell is a "more normal unemployment rate"? 8.5%? 8%? 

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 16:51 | 975485 akak
akak's picture

"May the Morg be with you."

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:14 | 974312 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Laszlo "Kermit" Birinyi's ruler knows no bounds 

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:27 | 974390 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

BEnron to Kermit: "I'll give you a viagra for that there ruler..." TO the MOON ALICE!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:16 | 974319 MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

I just heard that Ben Bernanke is being sued personally by a business man from Oklahoma for forgery regarding bailout funds. The motion says Bernanke deliberately falsified or let falsifying documents to the US public....If true or not : I would like to see Ben in front of a grand jury!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:17 | 974329 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

"Heard?"   Common, give us the skinny...

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:18 | 974347 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This will eventually be dismissed with the argument that the Fed is protected by national security concerns. The Fed's lies must be covered up in the interest of continuing the Fed's lies.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:21 | 974360 Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

"Sovereign Immunity" inc...for everything.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:41 | 974497 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

sovereign immunity is only for states.  i'll go with lack of standing.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:56 | 974612 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I heard Bernanke is set to be publicly stoned for prostitution, beastiality, promiscous slutism, and spreading venereal diseases far and wide.

http://www.facebook.com/BenBernanke.US

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:31 | 974794 Jerome Lester H...
Jerome Lester Horwitz's picture

That and the judge will rule that plaintiff has no standing to bring a suit.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:20 | 974354 ehildret
ehildret's picture

I would like to see that too.  Too bad they don't let peasants in the grand juries' rooms...  they'll just spin it anyway.  We know how to read behind their front story.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:34 | 974438 sabra1
sabra1's picture

i'd love to see benny in front of a grand cherokee!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:15 | 974321 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Yes, yes, yes.   But after factoring in substitution, hedonics and eyes-of-newt, the true adjusted CPI will be .0003%.   I think we need an Economics 101 retreat for the folks at ZH

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:16 | 974325 gwar5
gwar5's picture

They got rid of Volcker already, or he walked on them, which was the big tip they could care less about inflation.

That, and the fact TPTB lie about all the numbers.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:22 | 974366 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Nonsense. They ran models on how much boobus americanus will tolerate (inflation) before they cause civil unrest.

 

they will ride it to that figure and not blink.

 

Whether the models are correct is a different story...

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:16 | 974331 themosmitsos
themosmitsos's picture

Tyler, can you please explain to me how the 30s & 10s go higher when the FED owns so much of that market, especially the 30s? This is why I don't think the 10s/30s can really sustain higher--there's effectively zero market *in*which* they can go "no-bid" & start blowing out. I'm expecting the 2s3s5s to just grind higher and as DXY collapses, for them to invert the curve & drag the WHOLE thing higher ==> HyperInflation. Not being condescending, honest question, please correct where/how I'm wrong. Thanks :)

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:16 | 974334 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The Ponzi simply can't admit to this type of drastic increase in inflation since the official lie has been little to no "real" inflation as far as the eye can see. Expect the lies to continue until the Ponzi's America Pravda (aka the compliant USA press) along with the Ponzi itself looses all credibility even among the brain dead.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:26 | 974385 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

CD--You are assuming they haven't run models on this issue. they have an "idea" of how much inflation will be tolerated by the peasants before they turn off the TV and riot.

 

the real question is how can WE figure out what that number (% inflation) is?

Think about your assumptions a bit more. (Of course they could be wrong, but they have thought about this, for sure).

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:55 | 974478 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'm not saying they can't admit to "unexpected inflation", only that they can't go from 1% to 10% all at once. There will a big big lag in admitting what everyone already knows.

As someone who lived through the inflation of the 70's and 80's this inflation movie is a repeat.....though the circumstance are very different and much more desperate. In fact, like a fanatic of "The Rocky Horror Picture Show" or "Beetlejuice" who has seen the movie dozens of time, I can recite the "no inflation here" dialogue better than the on screen actors can. :>)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rocky_Horror_Picture_Show

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beetlejuice

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:07 | 974682 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

CD--I understand that. I guess my comments stems from the fact we all do a lot of commenting on ZH, but not a lot of extrapolation and analysis in the comments. We beat our chests. Now what?

 

Can't we do our own efforts to figure out what and where WE think the breaking point is, KWIM?

 

also, if we "ran" the show what the frak would we do to try to fix it? For better or worse, what financial policies would we consider (beyond TEOTWAKI and Jump Puckers, etc)

 

I get frustrated with our herd mentality here sometimes.

 

Why can't we just figure shit out? We can't do worse than our governemnt, who reads this site and the comments anyway.

 

Maybe we'll get lucky.

 

also, I drink a lot.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:14 | 974695 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

CD--also, all I am saying is that there have already run models on this. Of course they think they have an answer for it.

 

But are they right?

 

That is the question. (History so far, has not been their friend).

 

Second--Can  WE build a model based on reality and figure this out, perhaps using Egypt as part of the model?

 

Third -would it be worth doing our own grassroots effort to figure out inflation each month, ourselves? We have the means to do it, we just need a good statistics person and e need to be told what to gather.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 14:55 | 975136 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I think www.shadowstats.com does a great job on the economic numbers.

But as far as running models, we don't have the correct info because we aren't privy to what's really going on in the back rooms. We simply don't know what the Fed knows. We only know what we are told and what we can deduce looking at secondary indicators.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 15:51 | 975313 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Good postings gentleman(person), enjoyed the read.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:49 | 974556 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Pravda will just spin it off as an "honest mistake", as with the CPAC video.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:58 | 974635 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

so they can't admit what everyone's bank account is telling them?

To understand that, you have to understand who TPTB really care as their audience. ANyone who is affected by daily needs rising and smacking their budget already know how bad it is and isn't a mover/shaker anyway.  The real audience isn't concerned about those problems and the CPI Ben speaks of is to communicate trade moves outside of the normal vision.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:27 | 974396 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Eagerly awaiting Ben's book on hell.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:47 | 974540 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

Hopefully he will be writing from there too.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:04 | 974541 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

dupe grrrrrrrr

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:17 | 974336 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

POMO sumbitted to accepted was 5.59.  Is this a high as banks try to put everything they have back to the Fed????

Serious trouble lurking?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:17 | 974338 Ancona
Ancona's picture

There is no inflation here, because we used hedonics to adjust our values. You see, when bread becomes too expensive, people will simply substitute mud cakes.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:18 | 974345 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

who ya gonna believe: sean corrigan or zh's own resident genius the old catfish mouth robo uber bull bear wanna be who has made it abundantly clear on these pages that .... in his words ... there is no inflation because wti (rather than brent) is down from $92 to $87. i think the old catfish mouth is bucking for a job with the chairsatan's enterprise. he'll fit nicely in a cubicle next to that fed "economist" who said that rising oil leads to an increase gdp.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 17:01 | 975504 akak
akak's picture

I always used to wonder who was more eager to kneel before Ben while licking their lips in anticipation of performing fellatio on the ChairSatan, RoboTroll or Leo Koliasskiss.  Given the abdication of the latter from his former campaign of numerous (and typically junked-into-oblivion) pro-Fed comments here, I guess the answer is the former.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:19 | 974349 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

The budget cut is very deflationary!

Many smart guys don't see long term inflation

you guys need to wake up.

Why more americans are retired due to wealth effects and stable low inflation outlook?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:25 | 974378 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

budget cut math: $3.7 trillion minus $100 billion equals?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:30 | 974409 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

QE4?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 22:48 | 976522 TexasAggie
TexasAggie's picture

I think it should either be QE4+ to infinity

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:24 | 974371 Deathtöngue
Deathtöngue's picture

I find it strange that Zerohedge has no comment on today's drop in cotton prices.

No, wait.. not "strange"... what's the word I'm looking for? Oh yeah - TYPICAL.

PS: Weimar, fiat, Zimbabwe.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:28 | 974397 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

lock up lock down.

 

you are still locked up !

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:32 | 974422 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

To offset the increase in WOOL? Keep your mind open imbecile. ZH reports that INFLATION is here to stay. A 3% drop after a 100% rise is what?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 15:46 | 975297 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

+++++

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:49 | 974557 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Jean-Claude, that you?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:26 | 974393 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

Look here now serfs, this was all because of the rapid thawing in certain parts of the country, thus the serfs bid up everything in joyous celebration of the end..............

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:27 | 974395 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

The Billion Prices Project is an academic initiative that collects prices from hundreds of online retailers around the world on a daily basis to conduct economic research. They currently monitor daily price fluctuations of ~5 million items sold by ~300 online retailers in more than 70 countries. In the U.S. they monitor 53 retailers and 550,000 items.

This data is an interesting and alarming alternative to what the Feds are saying about inflation being benign.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:47 | 974538 D-Falt
D-Falt's picture

It relates more intimately to what an average person is really paying.  It reminds me of a temperature adjusted for humidity or wind chill factor.  The thermometer (in this case the CPI) may read x, but you and I feel x +y.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 15:45 | 975294 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

I disagree, it you look at all the data you will see that the Fed and MIT numbers closely track each other, up until 6 months ago.  They are both measuring the temperature of the same room but one thermometer has a piece of snow stuck to it!!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 15:39 | 975280 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

I took a hard look at it when ZH linked to it, it seems very creditable and accurate.  Note the last 6 month decoupling....  me thinks the feds are playing with the numbers.....

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 21:27 | 976316 Hondo the Bondo
Hondo the Bondo's picture

Billion Prices Project has some methodological challenges, and I can't find the answers on how the researchers overcame them.

The methodology described is very light on details:

http://bpp.mit.edu/methodology/

If there's a paper on SSRN.com or somewhere, please post a reply.

In particular, my criticisms are:


1. Do they track prices on items rarely sold online, like houses, cars or any services? If so, how? Without data on them, how can BPP be a good predictor?

2. How do they deal with free shipping?

3. How do they deal with commissioners from online retailers to other websites -- like when a blogger reviews a book, and then gets commissions when people click on his site to buy it from Amazon.

4. How do they deal with Groupons and limited-time coupons? Going back to Adam Smith, we know that it's important to look at P*Q, not just P. 

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:36 | 974451 JackieTreehorn
JackieTreehorn's picture

What is going to happen to male models turned coal miners when the price of cotton balls double?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:42 | 974501 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Great Zoolander reference!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 15:36 | 975269 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

..rolls eyes...

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:43 | 974509 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

On which calendar are there 25 days between Dec 31 and Feb 14?  I thought Dennis the Short cleared up that sort of date confusion in the middle ages.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:49 | 974562 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

trading days would be my guess - you couldn't figure that out?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:59 | 974636 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

Don't run him off we need his liquidity! HAHAHA!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:21 | 974747 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Uh, Dude, the grown-ups were talking about inflation here.  If it's real, it doesn't take weekends, snow days, and MLK day off.  If you're still confused, ask your civics teacher.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:43 | 974510 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Laws and Taxes (AND now INFLATION) are for Peons and Peasants.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:47 | 974546 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

I think we should all ask for a pay rise - those of us who have jobs that is, and the rest  tell everyone that a tin of beans is 20% more than last year - if properganda is the new norm, then we must all do our bit  ;-)

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:36 | 974824 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

A three bedroom house with a nice deck and bird feeder has been on the market for two years, asking 1.3 million.  No offers, no lookie loos, no nothin.  If the "owner" raises the asking price 20 percent, is that inflation?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 14:24 | 975016 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Actually a tin of beans is the same price. It is 20% less in size however.

http://www.brandchannel.com/home/post/2011/01/05/Consumer-Goods-Manufact...

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:53 | 974585 viator
viator's picture

That would put the Misery Index at about 20, not too far off the 21.98 high of June 1980.

Not a very good sign for the Dems election prospects.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 12:55 | 974608 stollcri
stollcri's picture

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around does it make a sound?

If the price of goods goes up and the wage earners don't demand wage increases is there inflation?

According to Krugman the MIT Billion Price is wrong because it only factors in the price of goods, not the price of services. So, it seems that if the price of goods are going up, but wages (price of services) are going down then inflation doesn't exist. I guess this makes sense if you stop looking at things through the eyes of a wage earner.

Besides, the prices of necessary goods (food, energy, etc.) are volatile, just buy your food next year when it is cheaper.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:05 | 974665 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

That's what I did - no driving or eating until prices drop. 

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:18 | 974675 JR
JR's picture

Speaking of Volcker, surely there is no longer any doubt as to where the problem centers.  It is the Federal Reserve “Bank.”  And bringing Mother Teresa in as the manager of this “bank” or Paul Volcker is a grand act of delusion.  Volcker works/worked for the owners of the Fedral Reserve; when he was chairman and when he was not chairman and when he was the propaganda balance for Obama’s team.  And if he is brought back from the freezer, he will follow every instruction of the private owners of the Fed cartel, as he has always done.  Whoever would suggest anybody to run the Fed now, even if they said Ron Paul, I would say NO!  We don’t want  even Paul the Apostle to run the Fed; we want NO FED! because that’s the problem.

People who think you can get a Fed fix with a personality---that Bernanke is the problem or even that Obama is the problem--are drifting off into the ether. Below is some of the Fed's handiwork from a rare Benson...

_______________________________________________________

 

The Collapse of America’s Labor Force | Benson’s Economic & Market Trends | 02.16.11

America continues to face a true national tragedy as tens of millions of unemployed people have been literally discarded because of big business outsourcing to China, India, and elsewhere.  Worse yet, the unemployment statistics are manipulated every month in a cruel hoax to make it look like the unemployment rate is far lower than it really isA high unemployment rate is embarrassing and would depress workers and business psychology, so workers are surgically removed from the labor force and hidden from

While the financial press states that we need to create at least 150,000 jobs a month to keep up with a growing labor force, they have failed to report that the number of workers no longer employed jumped by two million last year to 85 million, from 83 million in 2009.  Some of these workers hidden from view are in welfare programs, and millions more simply vanish from the workforce using the government’s statistical magic. 

Following are some examples of how statistical magic is used to shrink the labor force and lower the unemployment rate: 

The rush to start collecting social security at age 62:  When you begin collecting social security, you drop out of the labor force.  A few years ago, the forecast was that social security tax would exceed payments until 2016, yet the program ran a deficit last year for the first time ever of $41 billion.  While a good part of this year’s social security deficit is related to a one-year two percent social security tax reduction to individuals, a sizable part of the deficit has been caused by less people working, and early filers.  Filings were up over 10 percent last year because adults over 62 years old can’t find work.

51.2 million Americans are currently collecting social security benefits and of that amount, 7.7 million are early retirees, or young survivors of retirees who have passed away.  This group is not in the labor force and the vast majority will never return. 

Filing for Social Security Disability or SSI:  If you are Caucasian, 55 years old, and a permanently-trashed factory worker, this is about the only place you can hope to go and survive as state and local governments gut welfare. In 2000, before employment fell off the cliff, it was reported that 1.4 million a year filed for SSI (only about 50 percent of applicants are approved).  In 2010, three million filed. 

Looking at the government statistics for social security and SSI, of the 51.2 million people currently collecting social security, 5.2 million are “disabled” and collecting SSI.  Remember, if you’re retired or on SSI you’re not counted as unemployed or in the labor force, so SSI is a neat place to hide over five million desperate workers.

Workers dropped from the labor force:  If you haven’t looked for a job for a few weeks, the government, in their ultimate wisdom, assumes you don’t want a job so they drop you from the labor force. Yet, if you were to ask all those people who didn’t look for a job – because there are no jobs – they would surely tell you they wanted one.  There are 6.65 million people in this category and if they were added back in, the unemployment rate would immediately jump from 9 percent, to 12.8 percent. 

The self-employed counted as working:  Even though they’re self-employed and have no income, this group is counted as working.  The number of self-employed people (who have an unincorporated business) has been rising by a few hundred thousand a year since the recession began.  The total number is up to a staggering 9.7 million and many in this category have discovered that to have a job, all you need to do is print up a business card and hand it out. 

An industry conference we attended recently had over 5,000 attendees. The industry turns assets like car loans, credit cards, and mortgages into securities, but there are not a lot of deals being done. In looking at the business cards, we estimate that 1,500 of the attendees were consultants (without clients) looking for a real job.

The self-employed job category includes barbers, construction workers, real estate agents, etc.  For them, there seems to be a lot less work, than people.   In Palm Beach where I reside, there are twice as many registered real estate agents as there are homes for sale and that doesn’t bode well for income levels.  We estimate that of the 9.7 million self-employed,   a few million are probably doing fine, a few more million are hanging on, and at least four million are not covering their costs and operating at a loss. 

Counting part-timers as full-time:  Part-timers are lucky to have a job at all, but their luck is overstated.  Part-time work only pays for a part-time life, and the number of people working short-term for economic reasons in January of this year was 9.2 million. 

Escalation in the number of people relying on a government check:  The food stamp program is a startling example of how many people have stopped supporting themselves.  Since 2006, when 26 million people were receiving food stamps, the number has shot up 63 percent.  As of November 2010, the number was up by 16.5 million to 43.5 million collecting. This means that out of a population of 311 million, 14 percent are on food stamps!

When you add up the number of recipients receiving a government handout, there are now over 100 million people (almost a third of the population) relying on Uncle Sam to survive.  The only problem is Uncle Sam is poor and running another $1.6 trillion deficit this year.

While the government has focused on blowing up American factories and moving all new factories overseas, the Federal Reserve has created stock market and housing bubbles to give the American economy a false rosy glow. Working their Keynesian magic together, our leaders have managed to lead America and its struggling workers to the poor house. 

The table below shows what the federal government and Federal Reserve policies have done to America (see link for chart): …

So, what is the real unemployment rate? 

First, we adjusted the labor force back up from the 153 million reported for January 2011 by adding back in workers who are either marginally attached and/or collecting SSI or early Social Security.   This brings the total to 163 million.  When you divide the total of labor force collapse of 38.3 million by 163 million, we get a real measure of unemployment and under employment of 23 percent! (see link for chart)

Judging from these numbers, much of the collapse of the American labor force looks permanent, and the majority of job seekers will be lucky if they earn 60 percent of what they made in their last full-time job.

There’s no end in sight for the housing collapse either, and most experts are in agreement that without a recovery in housing, there will be no real economic recovery.  Unfortunately, with so many people surviving on a small crummy government check, the question remains who will be able to afford any of those 10 million vacant homes, or 6 million foreclosures yet to come, particularly with mortgage rates and required down-payments going up.

Time is running out and it may already be too late but the leadership in Washington needs to step up to the plate and put Americans back to work before our country turns into “The Banana Republic of the North”. 

http://www.sfgroup.org/The%20Collapse%20of%20America's%20Labor%20Force.htm

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:22 | 974750 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The Ben Bernank apparently thinks he can pump M2 and watch the stock market surge higher and make people think he fixed this mess.  Since when has printing fiat currency ever solved any economic crisis.

The Ben Bernank = pathological liar and psychopath?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 15:32 | 975252 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

++++++

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:11 | 974707 AAPL_Short
AAPL_Short's picture

This is satinflation = satanic inflation

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:13 | 974711 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

 

Those news don't affect the DOW anymore. Like another ZH article pointed out, corporate America is not looking up the US's news anymore, their future market is the developing countries.

In Canada, people have debts 150% of their yearly income.

North America and Europe is dead.

 

 

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:18 | 974734 Ye Ye
Ye Ye's picture

At this rate of inflation, my home's value will eventually *have* to go up, then I'll have plenty of money to buy t-shirts and bread.  Hi fives Ben!

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:24 | 974762 lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

IM SO DAMN SICK OF IT

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:32 | 974804 JR
JR's picture

That says it all.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:42 | 974867 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Who the $%^& is junking these posts? Someone who does not want the truth heard?

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 16:32 | 975435 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Somebody that masturbates to trannie porn, lost their trannie porn sites due to an over zealous web filter, and now has to get off junking ZH posts.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 17:06 | 975529 akak
akak's picture

I think it is the former troll JohnnyBravo, who is junking in anonymity as his soul dies a little more with each jump up in the prices of gold and silver.

"Inflation: it's not just for breakfast foods any more."

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:41 | 974856 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

The parallels between the US/UK/EU 2011 and 1789 France are astonishing- both begain with debts that could never be paid and serfs that were being eaten alive by inflation. You do the math.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 15:22 | 975223 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Very interesting and accurate parallels, thanks for pointing that out.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 13:53 | 974911 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

It looks like Chris Martenson's analysis is right on the mark.  Expect 3 years with 10+% inflation then the neo-Volcker cleaners will come in.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/analysis-obamas-budget-fantastic-comedy/52899

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 16:35 | 975439 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Not to piss on anyone's parade or revolution, but what exactly got updated in this post?

Instead of updating, maybe ZH should be redacting, that way "The ChairSatan" will be able to sleep nights.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 17:39 | 975643 flow5
flow5's picture

"it is time to bring Volcker out of the freezer once again"

 

Paul Volcker’s version of monetarism (along with credit controls), was limited to Feb, Mar, & Apr of 1980.  With the intro of the DIDMCA, total legal reserves increased at a 17% annual rate of change, & M1 exploded at a 20% annual rate (until 1980 year’s-end - when reserves were binding). 

Then came the "time bomb", the widespread introduction of ATS, NOW, & MMMF accounts -- which vastly accelerated the transactions velocity of money (all the demand drafts drawn on these accounts cleared thru demand deposits (DDs) – except those drawn on Mutual Savings Banks (MSBs), interbank, and the U.S. government).This propelled nominal gNp to 19.2% in the 1st qtr 1981, the FFR to 22%, & AAA Corporates to 15.49%.

 No, Paul Volcker never followed a tight monetary policy.  He let the economy burn itself out.

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 17:42 | 975647 flow5
flow5's picture

edit

 

Fri, 02/18/2011 - 17:43 | 975649 flow5
flow5's picture

delete

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 00:21 | 978913 StokeyBob
StokeyBob's picture

When I started looking into where the money was coming from to buy off the politicians and subvert the immigration laws of the world, I came across what may be the root of many of our problems. Fiat Money.

No matter how much real money people can put together to build their countries the way they want there are those that can print up what ever it takes to get their way.

Maybe this will help make the danger of fiat money clear.

Imagine you and me are setting across from each other. We create enough money to represent all of the world's wealth. Each one of us has one SUPER Dollar in front of him.

You own half of everything and so do I.

I'm the government though. I get bribed into creating a Central Bank.

You're not doing what I want you to be doing so I print up myself eight more SUPER Dollars to manipulate you with.

All of a sudden your SUPER Dollar only represents one tenth of the wealth of the world!

That isn't the only thing though. You need to get busy and get to work because YOU'VE BEEN STIFFED with the bill for the money I PRINTED UP to get YOU TO DO what I WANTED.

That to me represents what has been happening to the economy, and us, and why so many of our occupations just can't keep up with the fake money presses.

We are going to have to regain control of our government before we can regain control of our currency. We are going to have to regain control of our currency before we can regain control of our country.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!