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US Banks on the Mend? Q1 2010 Bank Stress Index Results

rc whalen's picture




 

Preliminary ratings for Q1 2010 for US banking
institutions from the professional version of The IRA Bank Monitor
are rolling in at a good pace. With 7,240 bank units reporting, the
preliminary aggregate Bank Stress Index (BSI) rating is currently just 5 vs. 21.5
in Q4 2009. The benchmark year 1995 equals "1" in the BSI.  This suggests that the US banking industry is officially on
the mend in terms of building reserves, but the credit cleanup
continues even as new events climb over the horizon.The preliminary results as of today are below:

IRA Preliminary Bank Stress
Grade Distributions

Period A+ A B C D F
PRELIMINARY
Sample
count =7,244

Average BSI
5.01

3,146 1,630 468 446 90 1,338
Prior Quarter Ending 0912
sample count = 8,455

Average
BSI
21.49

2,978 1,539 480 432 85 2,441

Notes: FDIC/IRA Bank Monitor
1. Source for preliminary data is FDIC Central Data
Repository 'CDR'. 2. Source for prior period data is FDIC RIS master
file. 3. Preliminary data is incomplete. Certain bank reports are
unavailable until the final publication of the FDIC master file.

What these results suggest is that ROE, which was the leading stress factor behind the 25 BSI score in Q1 2009 is easing and that stress in terms of charge-offs and efficiency lies ahead.  This is good news in terms of survival for the industry, but it is not yet cause for celebration since credit losses could linger at current levels all of 2010.

You can look up individual bank ratings and buy single reports on www.irabankratings.com

-- Chris

Read our comment today on "Value at Risk: Equity Market Volatility is All About Liquidity"

http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAMain.asp

 


 

 

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Mon, 05/10/2010 - 14:13 | 341714 Thoreau
Thoreau's picture

On the mend till inflation kicks-in; unless they're holding substantial amounts of precious metals. Don't think JPM & Co. will get caught with with their shorts pulled down; the emperors are wearing gold-line jockstraps - with 24k cups!

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:10 | 341538 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"Needless to say, stress tests are a joke."

What's interesting about this is that, even with the bullshit mark to myth and other accounting tricks, there's still 1338 institutions that received a "fail" rating.  1338 institutions literally were incapable of making their books look pretty enough to avoid a "fail" rating.  Holy fuck is that scary. 

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:30 | 341587 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

They obviously need accountants who are better at accounting tricks.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:06 | 341528 jswede
jswede's picture

either they are on the mend, or the "F" banks are slow in reporting...?

Total prelim reports are about 1200 shy of the Q42009 reports (7244 vs 8455)...  interestingly, the "A" thru "D" categories are very close to the Q42009 results, while "F" category is about 1100 shy of the Q42009 number (1338 vs 2441)...

could the "F" banks be less enthusiastic about timely reporting of their less-than-spectacular results, and therefore we expect the last 1200 reporting banks to be heavily weighted towards "F"...?

Chris?

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:05 | 341521 sweet ebony diamond
sweet ebony diamond's picture

this guy has the wrong address.

please go to www.cnbc.com for all propaganda submissions.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:18 | 341433 hp12c
hp12c's picture

So we can now officially return to MarK to Market accounting?

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:08 | 341402 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

I feel alot better now after reading that, I was worried for a minute...

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:07 | 341396 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

This is a comic book.  Save it, it will be good for a laugh (some day soon I think)

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 13:35 | 341608 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Absolutely...with FASB 157 in there they all look like champs, instead of the chumps that they are.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:04 | 341387 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

Really? There's one small nit in this story. Namely, BofA's Troubled Asset Ratios are astoundingly high. In the range that the FDIC normally closes down troubled banks (50+). And that's with cooked books.

Here are a few listings:

http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/california/s...

http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/oregon/portl...

http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/rhode-island...

On the mend, my butt. Things look like they are getting worse.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:01 | 341377 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Just a reminder that the TB's that failed ALL passed the stress tests

Needless to say, stress tests are a joke.Especially after the FASBY mod

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 11:59 | 341372 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Damn right they're on the mend, especially the big banks that continue to print money off their capital markets operations. Who needs to lend money to small & medium size businessses when you can make a killing trading now that QE 2.0 has just begun?

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:12 | 341416 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

Great! Since they're all "on the mend" this plainly means we can put Fannie, Freddie and AIG into runoff at this point and scale back FHA insurance. After all, since they can so easily make money in the casino on their own, there's absolutely no need to have taxpayers foot the bill for bankers' poor judgment for even one additional second.

 

Plainly, since the world's debt issues are now dealt with once and for all, no one will have any problems if the US Congress fails to fund the IMF this year.

 

And since no one's in any trouble anymore, then the Fed shouldn't have any problems with opening its books to show us how OUR money was wasted.

 

O! Frabjous day now that bankers can finally be loose of the apron-strings of this odious and repressive government intervention.

Mon, 05/10/2010 - 12:02 | 341381 Votewithabullet
Votewithabullet's picture

"officially on the mend." ..snicker

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